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TwitterThe novel coronavirus that originated in the Chinese city Wuhan - the capital of Hubei province - had killed 17,826 people in Greater China. As of June 7, 2022, there were 2,785,848 active cases with symptoms in the region.
How did it spread?
In late December 2019, the health authorities in Wuhan detected several pneumonia cases of unknown cause. Most of these patients had links to the Huanan seafood market. The virus then spread spread rapidly to other provinces when millions of Chinese migrant workers headed home for Chinese New Year celebrations. About five billion people left Wuhan before the start of the travel ban on January 23. Right before Chinese New Year, the central government decided to put Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province on lockdown. With further travel restrictions and cancellations of public celebration events, the number of infections surpassed 80 thousand by the end of February. On March 18, 2020, China reported no new local coronavirus COVID-19 transmissions for the first time after quarantine measures had been implemented. On March 31, 2020, the National Health Commission (NHC) in China announced that it would begin reporting the infection number of symptom-free individuals who tested positive for coronavirus. After no new deaths reported for first time, the Chinese government lifted ten-week lockdown on Wuhan on April 8, 2020. Daily life was returning slowly back to normal in the country.
What is COVID-19?
Coronaviruses originate in animals like camels, civets and bats and are usually not transmissible to humans. But when a coronavirus mutates, it can be passed from animals to humans. The new strain of coronavirus COVID-19 is one of the seven known coronaviruses that can infect humans causing fever and respiratory infections. China's National Health Commission has confirmed the virus can be transmitted between humans through direct contact, airborne droplets. Faecal-oral transmission could also be possible. Although the death toll of COVID-19 has surpassed that of SARS, its fatality rate is relatively low compared to other deadly coronavirus, such as SARS and MERS.
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Background: The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in the city of Wuhan, China, with a period of rapid initial spread. Transmission on a regional and then national scale was promoted by intense travel during the holiday period of the Chinese New Year. We studied the variation in transmission of COVID-19, locally in Wuhan, as well as on a larger spatial scale, among different cities and even among provinces in mainland China.Methods: In addition to reported numbers of new cases, we have been able to assemble detailed contact data for some of the initial clusters of COVID-19. This enabled estimation of the serial interval for clinical cases, as well as reproduction numbers for small and large regions.Findings: We estimated the average serial interval was 4.8 days. For early transmission in Wuhan, any infectious case produced as many as four new cases, transmission outside Wuhan was less intense, with reproduction numbers below two. During the rapid growth phase of the outbreak the region of Wuhan city acted as a hot spot, generating new cases upon contact, while locally, in other provinces, transmission was low.Interpretation: COVID-19 is capable of spreading very rapidly. The sizes of outbreak in provinces of mainland China mainly depended on the numbers of cases imported from Wuhan as the local reproduction numbers were low. The COVID-19 epidemic should be controllable with appropriate interventions (suspension of public transportation, cancellation of mass gatherings, implementation of surveillance and testing, and promotion of personal hygiene and face mask use).
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TwitterThe new SARS-like coronavirus has spread around China since its outbreak in Wuhan - the capital of central China’s Hubei province. As of June 7, 2022, there were 2,785,848 active cases with symptoms in Greater China. The pandemic has caused a significant impact in the country's economy.
Fast-moving epidemic
In Wuhan, over 3.8 thousand deaths were registered in the heart of the outbreak. The total infection number surged on February 12, 2020 in Hubei province. After a change in official methodology for diagnosing and counting cases, thousands of new cases were added to the total figure. There is little knowledge about how the virus that originated from animals transferred to humans. While human-to-human transmission has been confirmed, other transmission routes through aerosol and fecal-oral are also possible. The deaths from the current virus COVID-19 (formally known as 2019-nCoV) has surpassed the toll from the SARS epidemic of 2002 and 2003.
Key moments in the Chinese coronavirus timeline
The doctor in Wuhan, Dr. Li Wenliang, who first warned about the new strain of coronavirus was silenced by the police. It was announced on February 7, 2020 that he died from the effects of the coronavirus infection. His death triggered a national backlash over freedom of speech on Chinese social media. On March 18, 2020, the Chinese government reported no new domestically transmissions for the first time after a series of quarantine and social distancing measures had been implemented. On March 31, 2020, the National Health Commission (NHC) in China started reporting the infection number of symptom-free individuals who tested positive for coronavirus. Before that, asymptomatic cases had not been included in the Chinese official count. China lifted ten-week lockdown on Wuhan on April 8, 2020. Daily life was returning slowly back to normal in the country. On April 17, 2020, health authorities in Wuhan revised its death toll, adding some 1,290 fatalities in its total count.
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TwitterAs of June 6, 2022, the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that originated in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province in China, had infected over 2.1 million people and killed 14,612 in the country. Hong Kong is currently the region with the highest active cases in China.
From Wuhan to the rest of China
In late December 2019, health authorities in Wuhan detected several pneumonia cases of unknown cause. Most of these patients had links to the Huanan Seafood Market. With Chinese New Year approaching, millions of Chinese migrant workers travelled back to their hometowns for the celebration. Before the start of the travel ban on January 23, around five million people had left Wuhan. By the end of January, the number of infections had surged to over ten thousand. The death toll from the virus exceeded that of the SARS outbreak a few days later. On February 12, thousands more cases were confirmed in Wuhan after an improvement to the diagnosis method, resulting in another sudden surge of confirmed cases. On March 31, 2020, the National Health Commission (NHC) in China announced that it would begin reporting the infection number of symptom-free individuals who tested positive for coronavirus. On April 17, 2020, health authorities in Wuhan revised its death toll, adding 50 percent more fatalities. After quarantine measures were implemented, the country reported no new local coronavirus COVID-19 transmissions for the first time on March 18, 2020.
The overloaded healthcare system
In Wuhan, 28 hospitals were designated to treat coronavirus patients, but the outbreak continued to test China’s disease control system and most of the hospitals were soon fully occupied. To combat the virus, the government announced plans to build a new hospital swiftly. On February 3, 2020, Huoshenshan Hospital was opened to provide an additional 1,300 beds. Due to an extreme shortage of health-care professionals in Wuhan, thousands of medical staff from all over China came voluntarily to the epicenter to offer their support. After no new deaths reported for first time, China lifted ten-week lockdown on Wuhan on April 8, 2020. Daily life was returning slowly back to normal in the country.
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TwitterBackground: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and quickly spread throughout China and the rest of the world. Many mathematical models have been developed to understand and predict the infectiousness of COVID-19. We aim to summarize these models to inform efforts to manage the current outbreak.Methods: We searched PubMed, Web of science, EMBASE, bioRxiv, medRxiv, arXiv, Preprints, and National Knowledge Infrastructure (Chinese database) for relevant studies published between 1 December 2019 and 21 February 2020. References were screened for additional publications. Crucial indicators were extracted and analysed. We also built a mathematical model for the evolution of the epidemic in Wuhan that synthesised extracted indicators.Results: Fifty-two articles involving 75 mathematical or statistical models were included in our systematic review. The overall median basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.77 [interquartile range (IQR) 2.78–5.13], which dropped to a controlled reproduction number (Rc) of 1.88 (IQR 1.41–2.24) after city lockdown. The median incubation and infectious periods were 5.90 (IQR 4.78–6.25) and 9.94 (IQR 3.93–13.50) days, respectively. The median case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.9% (IQR 2.3–5.4%). Our mathematical model showed that, in Wuhan, the peak time of infection is likely to be March 2020 with a median size of 98,333 infected cases (range 55,225–188,284). The earliest elimination of ongoing transmission is likely to be achieved around 7 May 2020.Conclusions: Our analysis found a sustained Rc and prolonged incubation/ infectious periods, suggesting COVID-19 is highly infectious. Although interventions in China have been effective in controlling secondary transmission, sustained global efforts are needed to contain an emerging pandemic. Alternative interventions can be explored using modelling studies to better inform policymaking as the outbreak continues.
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TwitterBetween January and May 2020, it was estimated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK consortium that the coronavirus was brought into the United Kingdom on at least ***** different occasions. These importations each started a chain of transmission as the virus spread throughout the UK. In approximately ** percent of cases, the start of the transmission line was attributable to inbound travel from Spain, followed by **** percent virus introductions from Italy. Fewer than *** percent of chains of transmission arrived directly from China, where the coronavirus originated. The latest number of cases in the UK can be found here. For further information about the coronavirus pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.
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TwitterAs of May 2, 2023, the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) had been confirmed in almost every country in the world. The virus had infected over 687 million people worldwide, and the number of deaths had reached almost 6.87 million. The most severely affected countries include the U.S., India, and Brazil.
COVID-19: background information COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus that had not previously been identified in humans. The first case was detected in the Hubei province of China at the end of December 2019. The virus is highly transmissible and coughing and sneezing are the most common forms of transmission, which is similar to the outbreak of the SARS coronavirus that began in 2002 and was thought to have spread via cough and sneeze droplets expelled into the air by infected persons.
Naming the coronavirus disease Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that can be transmitted between animals and people, causing illnesses that may range from the common cold to more severe respiratory syndromes. In February 2020, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses and the World Health Organization announced official names for both the virus and the disease it causes: SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, respectively. The name of the disease is derived from the words corona, virus, and disease, while the number 19 represents the year that it emerged.
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The ER values for the epidemic of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province using a range of distances and time intervals.
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China quickly brought the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 under control during the early stage of 2020; thus, this generated sufficient confidence among the public, which enabled them to respond to several sporadic coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks. This article presents geographical and epidemiological characteristics of several sporadic coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks from June to December 2020 in China. The data show that the coronavirus disease may be transmitted by imported cold-chain food and international exchange, and this viewpoint deserves our great attention.
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TwitterSince it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39–4.13), indicating that 58–76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6–7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090–33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
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TwitterAs of February 11, 2020, the fatality rate of novel coronavirus COVID-19 (formally known as 2019-nCoV) ranged around 2.3 percent in China. The figure was higher in Hubei province, which where Wuhan city located in, reaching approximately 2.9 percent. In April, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 increased to above four percent in the country.
What is COVID-19?
Coronaviruses (CoV) are a family of a hundred viruses which can lead to potentially deadly diseases in mammals and birds. Some of them can mutate and spread from animals to humans. Common transmission routes are airborne droplets and direct contact in humans, causing fever, respiratory infections and sometimes gastrointestinal problems. The new strain of coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the seven known coronaviruses, which can infect humans with an estimated incubation period between two and 14 days. Most of the early COVID-19 cases occurred among people with a median age of 55 years old, who had been to the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan.
Comparison with SARS and MERS
COVID-19 has become one of the largest epidemics in the world. SARS and MERS are other deadly coronaviruses. In 2002 and 2003, the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) killed almost 800 people after its emergence in southern China. This was mostly in mainland China and Hong Kong. Another major virus crisis was the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012. The virus spread to 27 countries, resulting in nearly 860 deaths. In terms of mortality rates, MERS was much higher than SARS.
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TwitterInfectious bronchitis (IB) virus (IBV) causes considerable economic losses to poultry production. The data on transmission dynamics of IBV in China are limited. The complete genome sequences of 212 IBV isolates in China during 1985–2020 were analyzed as well as the characteristics of the phylogenetic tree, recombination events, dN/dS ratios, temporal dynamics, and phylogeographic relationships. The LX4 type (GI-19) was found to have the highest dN/dS ratios and has been the most dominant genotype since 1999, and the Taiwan-I type (GI-7) and New type (GVI-1) showed an increasing trend. A total of 59 recombinants were identified, multiple recombination events between the field and vaccine strains were found in 24 isolates, and the 4/91-type (GI-13) isolates were found to be more prone to being involved in the recombination. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses indicated that the Chinese IBVs originated from Liaoning province in the early 1900s. The LX4-type viruses were traced back to Liaoning province in the late 1950s and had multiple transmission routes in China and two major transmission routes in the world. Viral phylogeography identified three spread regions for IBVs (including LX4 type) in China: Northeastern China (Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Jilin), north and central China (Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Jiangsu), and Southern China (Guangxi and Guangdong). Shandong has been the epidemiological center of IBVs (including LX4 type) in China. Overall, our study highlighted the reasons why the LX4-type viruses had become the dominant genotype and its origin and transmission routes, providing more targeted strategies for the prevention and control of IB in China.
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TwitterSummaryThe number of cases interviewed who had a completed answer to the question asking if they attended any gatherings of more than 10 people in the 14 days before they became ill (or had a positive test) during their covidLINK interviews.DescriptionMD COVID-19 - Contact Tracing Cases Social Gatherings of More than 10 People layer reflects the number of cases interviewed who had a completed answer to the question asking if they attended any gatherings of more than 10 people in the 14 days before they became ill (or had a positive test) during their covidLINK interviews. Respondents may indicate that they attended more than one category of social gathering. For a variety of reasons, some individuals choose not to answer particular questions during the course of their interview.Events and locations where there is prolonged exposure to other people — including weddings, parties, stores, restaurants, etc. — are considered “high risk” for COVID-19 transmission. The more interaction at a gathering or location, the more likely a person may be to transmit or become infected with the virus. More information about considerations for events and gatherings — including how to assess risk levels and promote healthy behaviors that reduce spread — is available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Answers to interview questions do not provide evidence of cause and effect. Due to the nature of COVID-19 and the wide range of scenarios in which a person can become infected, most of the time it will not be possible to pinpoint exactly where and when a case became infected. Though a person may report attendance at a particular location, that does not mean that transmission happened at that location.The covidLINK interview questionnaire is updated as necessary to capture relevant information related to case exposure and potential onward transmission. These revisions should be taken into consideration when evaluating trends in case responses over time.COVID-19 is a disease caused by a respiratory virus first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. COVID-19 is a new virus that hasn't caused illness in humans before. Worldwide, COVID-19 has resulted in thousands of infections, causing illness and in some cases death. Cases have spread to countries throughout the world, with more cases reported daily. The Maryland Department of Health reports daily on COVID-19 cases by county.
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TwitterAround 282 thousand new cases of COVID-19 were reported in the United States during the week ending November 11, 2022. Between January 20, 2020 and November 11, 2022 there had been around 96.8 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 with over one million deaths in the U.S. as reported by the World Health Organization.
How did the coronavirus outbreak start? Pneumonia cases with an unknown cause were first reported in the Hubei province of China at the end of December 2019. Patients described symptoms including a fever and difficulty breathing, and early reports suggested no evidence of human-to-human transmission. We now know that a novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 is causing the disease COVID-19. The virus has been characterized as a pandemic and continues to spread from person to person – there have been around 642 million cases worldwide as of November 17, 2022.
The importance of isolation and quarantine In an effort to contain the early spread of the virus, China tightened travel restrictions and enforced isolation measures in the hardest-hit areas. The World Health Organization endorsed this strategy, and countries around the world implemented similar quarantine measures. Staying at home can limit the spread of the virus, and this applies to individuals who are only showing mild symptoms or none at all. Asymptomatic carriers of the virus – those that are experiencing no symptoms – may transmit the virus to people who are at a higher risk of getting very sick.
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TwitterOutbreaks of emerging coronaviruses in the past two decades and the current pandemic of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that emerged in China highlight the importance of this viral family as a zoonotic public health threat. To gain a better understanding of coronavirus presence and diversity in wildlife at wildlife-human interfaces in three southern provinces in Viet Nam 2013-2014, we used consensus Polymerase Chain Reactions to detect coronavirus sequences. In comparison to previous studies, we observed high proportions of positive samples among field rats (34.0%, 239/702) destined for human consumption and insectivorous bats in guano farms (74.8%, 234/313) adjacent to human dwellings. Most notably among field rats, the odds of coronavirus RNA detection significantly increased along the supply chain from field rats sold by traders (reference group; 20.7% positivity, 39/188) by a factor of 2.2 for field rats sold in large markets (32.0%, 116/363) and 10.0 for field rats sold and served in restaurants (55.6%, 84/151). Coronaviruses were also detected in rodents on the majority of wildlife farms sampled (60.7%, 17/28). These coronaviruses were found in the Malayan porcupines (6.0%, 20/331) and bamboo rats (6.3%, 6/96) that are raised on wildlife farms for human consumption as food. We identified six known coronaviruses in bats and rodents, clustered in three Coronaviridae genera, including the Alpha-, Beta-, and Gammacoronaviruses. Our analysis also suggested either mixing of animal excreta in the environment or interspecies transmission of coronaviruses, as both bat and avian coronaviruses were detected in rodent feces on wildlife farms. The mixing of multiple coronaviruses, and their apparent amplification along the wildlife supply chain into restaurants, suggests maximal risk for end consumers and likely underpins the mechanisms of zoonotic spillover to people.
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TwitterAs of November 11, 2022, almost 96.8 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United States. The pandemic has impacted all 50 states, with vast numbers of cases recorded in California, Texas, and Florida.
The coronavirus in the U.S. The coronavirus hit the United States in mid-March 2020, and cases started to soar at an alarming rate. The country has performed a high number of COVID-19 tests, which is a necessary step to manage the outbreak, but new coronavirus cases in the U.S. have spiked several times since the pandemic began, most notably at the end of 2022. However, restrictions in many states have been eased as new cases have declined.
The origin of the coronavirus In December 2019, officials in Wuhan, China, were the first to report cases of pneumonia with an unknown cause. A new human coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2 – has since been discovered, and COVID-19 is the infectious disease it causes. All available evidence to date suggests that COVID-19 is a zoonotic disease, which means it can spread from animals to humans. The WHO says transmission is likely to have happened through an animal that is handled by humans. Researchers do not support the theory that the virus was developed in a laboratory.
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TwitterAs of May 2, 2023, the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) had been confirmed in almost every country in the world. The virus had infected over 687 million people worldwide, and the number of deaths had reached almost 6.87 million. The most severely affected countries include the U.S., India, and Brazil.
COVID-19: background information COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus that had not previously been identified in humans. The first case was detected in the Hubei province of China at the end of December 2019. The virus is highly transmissible and coughing and sneezing are the most common forms of transmission, which is similar to the outbreak of the SARS coronavirus that began in 2002 and was thought to have spread via cough and sneeze droplets expelled into the air by infected persons.
Naming the coronavirus disease Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that can be transmitted between animals and people, causing illnesses that may range from the common cold to more severe respiratory syndromes. In February 2020, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses and the World Health Organization announced official names for both the virus and the disease it causes: SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, respectively. The name of the disease is derived from the words corona, virus, and disease, while the number 19 represents the year that it emerged.
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TwitterOutside of China, the country most affected by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was the Republic of Korea, as of February 26, 2020. The most likely place of exposure had been determined for around half of the cases in the country, while the other half remained under investigation. Around 20 people had sustained transmission from international locations, while approximately 600 people had been exposed to the virus while in the country.
Lessons learned from SARS outbreak COVID-19 is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virus is highly transmissible and is being spread through the air in tiny droplets expelled by someone who is coughing, sneezing, or speaking. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses, and this novel coronavirus shares many similarities with the SARS virus that was first identified in 2002. The SARS-CoV virus was also transmitted through the air, and people would become infected if they breathed in the droplets or touched a surface where droplets had recently landed.
What can people do to protect themselves? The best way to prevent illness is to avoid being exposed to the virus. This is best achieved by following everyday preventive actions: wash your hands regularly with soap and water, keep a distance between yourself and others, and cover your own mouth and nose when you are coughing and sneezing. The use of face masks in public places is also encouraged to reduce the risk of transmission.
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COVID-19, short for "Coronavirus Disease 2019," is an infectious respiratory illness caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and it quickly spread to become a global pandemic. Here are some key points to help you understand COVID-19:
Virus and Transmission:
SARS-CoV-2: The virus primarily spreads through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or breathes. It can also spread by touching surfaces contaminated with the virus and then touching the face. Symptoms:
COVID-19 symptoms can range from mild to severe and may include fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle or body aches, loss of taste or smell, sore throat, and more. Some individuals, especially the elderly or those with underlying health conditions, may develop severe respiratory symptoms and complications. Incubation Period:
The incubation period, or the time between exposure to the virus and the onset of symptoms, can range from 2 to 14 days. Preventive Measures:
To reduce the spread of the virus, preventive measures include practicing good hand hygiene, wearing masks, maintaining physical distancing, and getting vaccinated. Public health guidelines and recommendations may vary by region. Testing and Diagnosis:
Testing for COVID-19 involves techniques like polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests to detect the virus's genetic material or antigen tests to identify specific viral proteins. Diagnostic tests help confirm if someone is infected. Vaccination:
Vaccines have been developed and authorized for emergency use to prevent COVID-19. Vaccination campaigns aim to achieve widespread immunity and reduce the severity of the disease. Variants:
SARS-CoV-2 can undergo mutations, leading to the emergence of new variants. Some variants may spread more easily or evade immunity to some extent. Monitoring and studying these variants are crucial for public health strategies. Global Impact:
COVID-19 has had profound global impacts on public health, economies, and daily life. It has led to widespread illness, hospitalizations, and deaths, prompting governments worldwide to implement various measures to control the spread of the virus. Ongoing Research:
Ongoing research aims to deepen our understanding of the virus, its transmission dynamics, and the development of effective treatments. Scientists and healthcare professionals continue to adapt strategies based on evolving knowledge. It's essential to stay informed about the latest guidelines from health authorities and to follow recommended practices to help prevent the spread of COVID-19.
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BackgroundOn September 28, 2022, the first case of Omicron subvariant BF.7 was discovered among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections in Hohhot, China, and then the epidemic broke out on a large scale during the National Day holiday. It is imminently necessary to construct a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hohhot.MethodsIn this study, we first investigated the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Hohhot, including the spatiotemporal distribution and sociodemographic distribution. Then, we proposed a time-varying Susceptible-Quarantined Susceptible-Exposed-Quarantined Exposed-Infected-Asymptomatic-Hospitalized-Removed (SQEIAHR) model to derive the epidemic curves. The next-generation matrix method was used to calculate the effective reproduction number (Re). Finally, we explored the effects of higher stringency measures on the development of the epidemic through scenario analysis.ResultsOf the 4,889 positive infected cases, the vast majority were asymptomatic and mild, mainly concentrated in central areas such as Xincheng District. People in the 30–59 age group primarily were affected by the current outbreak, accounting for 53.74%, but females and males were almost equally affected (1.03:1). Community screening (35.70%) and centralized isolation screening (26.28%) were the main ways to identify positive infected cases. Our model predicted the peak of the epidemic on October 6, 2022, the dynamic zero-COVID date on October 15, 2022, a number of peak cases of 629, and a cumulative number of infections of 4,963 (95% confidential interval (95%CI): 4,692 ~ 5,267), all four of which were highly consistent with the actual situation in Hohhot. Early in the outbreak, the basic reproduction number (R0) was approximately 7.01 (95%CI: 6.93 ~ 7.09), and then Re declined sharply to below 1.0 on October 6, 2022. Scenario analysis of higher stringency measures showed the importance of decreasing the transmission rate and increasing the quarantine rate to shorten the time to peak, dynamic zero-COVID and an Re below 1.0, as well as to reduce the number of peak cases and final affected population.ConclusionOur model was effective in predicting the epidemic trends of COVID-19, and the implementation of a more stringent combination of measures was indispensable in containing the spread of the virus.
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TwitterThe novel coronavirus that originated in the Chinese city Wuhan - the capital of Hubei province - had killed 17,826 people in Greater China. As of June 7, 2022, there were 2,785,848 active cases with symptoms in the region.
How did it spread?
In late December 2019, the health authorities in Wuhan detected several pneumonia cases of unknown cause. Most of these patients had links to the Huanan seafood market. The virus then spread spread rapidly to other provinces when millions of Chinese migrant workers headed home for Chinese New Year celebrations. About five billion people left Wuhan before the start of the travel ban on January 23. Right before Chinese New Year, the central government decided to put Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province on lockdown. With further travel restrictions and cancellations of public celebration events, the number of infections surpassed 80 thousand by the end of February. On March 18, 2020, China reported no new local coronavirus COVID-19 transmissions for the first time after quarantine measures had been implemented. On March 31, 2020, the National Health Commission (NHC) in China announced that it would begin reporting the infection number of symptom-free individuals who tested positive for coronavirus. After no new deaths reported for first time, the Chinese government lifted ten-week lockdown on Wuhan on April 8, 2020. Daily life was returning slowly back to normal in the country.
What is COVID-19?
Coronaviruses originate in animals like camels, civets and bats and are usually not transmissible to humans. But when a coronavirus mutates, it can be passed from animals to humans. The new strain of coronavirus COVID-19 is one of the seven known coronaviruses that can infect humans causing fever and respiratory infections. China's National Health Commission has confirmed the virus can be transmitted between humans through direct contact, airborne droplets. Faecal-oral transmission could also be possible. Although the death toll of COVID-19 has surpassed that of SARS, its fatality rate is relatively low compared to other deadly coronavirus, such as SARS and MERS.