Extreme climatic conditions and their ecological impacts are currently emerging as critical features of climate change. We studied extreme sea ice condition (ESIC) and found it impacts both life-history traits and population dynamics of an Antarctic seabird well beyond ordinary variability. The Southern Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialoides) is an ice-dependent seabird, and individuals forage near the ice edge. During an extreme unfavorable year (when sea ice area is reduced and distance between ice edge and colony is high), observed foraging trips were greater in distance and duration. As a result, adults brought less food to their chicks, which fledged in the poorest body condition. During such unfavorable years, breeding success was extremely low and population growth rate (λ) was greatly reduced. The opposite pattern occurred during extreme favorable years. Previous breeding status had a strong influence on life-history traits and population dynamics, and their responses to extreme conditions. Successful breeders had a higher chance of breeding and raising their chick successfully during the following breeding season as compared to other breeding stages, regardless of environmental conditions. Consequently, they coped better with unfavorable ESIC. The effect of change in successful breeder vital rates on λ was greater than for other stages' vital rates, except for pre-breeder recruitment probabilities, which most affected λ. For environments characterized by ordinary sea ice conditions, interindividual differences were more likely to persist over the life of individuals and randomness in individual pathways was low, suggesting individual heterogeneity in vital rates arising from innate or acquired phenotypic traits. Additionally, unfavorable ESIC tended to exacerbate individual differences in intrinsic quality, expressed through differences in reproductive status. We discuss the strong effects of ESIC on Southern Fulmar life-history traits in an evolutionary context. ESICs strongly affect fitness components and act as potentially important agents of natural selection of life histories related to intrinsic quality and intermittent breeding. In addition, recruitment is a highly plastic trait that, if heritable, could have a critical role in evolution of life histories. Finally, we find that changes in the frequency of extreme events may strongly impact persistence of Southern Fulmar populations.

The Global Population Count Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) data set. The grids were created by using rates of population change between decades from the coarser resolution History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) database to back-cast the GRUMPv1 population count grids. Mismatches between the spatial extent of the HYDE calculated rates and GRUMPv1 population data were resolved via infilling rate cells based on a focal mean of values. Finally, the grids were adjusted so that the population totals for each country equaled the UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision) estimates for that country for the respective year (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). These data do not represent census observations for the years prior to 2000, and therefore can at best be thought of as estimations of the populations in given locations. The population grids are consistent internally within the time series, but are not recommended for use in creating longer time series with any other population grids, including GRUMPv1, Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4), or non-SEDAC developed population grids. These population grids served as an input to SEDAC's Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000 data set.

Climate oscillations in the Quaternary forced species to major latitudinal or altitudinal range shifts. It has been suggested that adaptation concomitant with range shifts plays key roles in species responses during climate oscillations, but the role of selection for local adaptation to climatic changes remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigated population structure, demographic history, and signatures of climate-driven selection based on genome-wide polymorphism data of 141 Japanese Arabidopsis halleri individuals, with European ones as outgroups. Coalescent-based analyses suggested a genetic differentiation between Japanese subpopulations since the Last Glacial Period (LGP), which would have contributed to shaping the current pattern of population structure. Population demographic analysis revealed the population size fluctuations in the LGP, which were particularly prominent since the subpopulations started to diverge (~50 kya). The ecological niche modeling predicted the geog..., We used whole genome re-sequencing data of Japanese (141 individuals from 135 populations) and European (12 individuals from 10 Central European populations and 4 individuals from 4 Romanian populations) Arabidopsis halleri individuals. Our analysis includes population structure analysis using non-negative matrix factorization (sNMF) (Frichot et al., 2014; Frichot and François, 2015), genome-wide association mapping for bioclimatic variables using latent factor mixed models (LFMM) (Caye et al., 2019; Gain and François, 2021), genome-wide selection scans based on cross-population extended haplotype homozygosity (XP-EHH) (Gautier et al., 2017), and enrichment analysis of the climate-associated loci in the extreme tails of selection scans with permutation test using the “genome rotation†scheme (Atwell et al., 2010; Horton et al., 2012; Nordborg et al., 2005; Sasaki et al., 2022; Tsuchimatsu et al., 2020)., , # Population genomics reveals demographic history and climate adaptation in Japanese Arabidopsis halleri

https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.1jwstqk3s

This dataset includes input SNP data and source code used in analysis of genetic differentiation and climate adaptation in Japanese Arabidopsis halleri.

We obtained re-sequencing data of Japanese (141 individuals) and European(12 Central European and 4 Romanian individuals) A. halleri. We mapped short reads to the A. halleri v2.03 assembly (DOE-JGI, http://phytozome.jgi.doe.gov/) using BWA-MEM 0.7.17-r1188 (Li, 2013), and bcftools v.1.17 mpileup and call (Danecek et al., 2021) pipeline.

Description of the data and file structure

SNP data

Ah_JP_EU.Q20.MAF005.DP15004300.FM01.vcf.gz

• SNP data for Japanese and European individuals.
• SNPs with quality ≤ 20, minor allele frequency ≤ 0.05, total depth ≤ 1,500 or total depth ≥ 4,300, and a fracti...

Scripts associated with the revised manuscript Climate variability disrupts mutualism-driven increases in population persistence (manuscript ID: NATECOLEVOL-25051503).

High-latitude ecosystems are experiencing the most rapid warming on earth, expected to trigger a diverse array of ecological responses. Climate warming affects the ecophysiology of fish, and fish close to the cold end of their thermal distribution are expected to increase somatic growth from increased temperatures and a prolonged growth season, which in turn affects maturation schedules, reproduction and survival, boosting population growth. Accordingly, fish species living in ecosystems close to their northern range edge should increase in relative abundance and importance, and possibly displace cold-water adapted species. We aim to document if and how population-level effects of warming are mediated by individual-level responses to increased temperatures, shifts in community structure and composition in high-latitude ecosystems. We studied 11 cool-water adapted freshwater fish populations in communities dominated by cold-water-adapted species to investigate changes in the relative i...

Population growth in the next half-century is on pace to raise global carbon emissions by half. Carbon emissions are associated with fertility as a by-product of somatic and parental investment, which is predicted to involve time orientation/preference as a mediating psychological mechanism. Here, we draw upon life-history theory (LHT) to investigate associations between future orientation and fertility, and their impacts on carbon emissions. We argue ‘K-strategy’ life history (LH) in high-income countries has resulted in parental investment behaviours involving future orientation that, paradoxically, promote unsustainable carbon emissions, thereby lowering the Earth's K or carrying capacity. Increasing the rate of approach towards this capacity are ‘r-strategy’ LHs in low-income countries that promote population growth. We explore interactions between future orientation and development that might slow the rate of approach towards global K. Examination of 67 000 individuals across 75 countries suggests that future orientation interacts with the relationship between environmental risk and fertility and with development related parental investment, particularly investment in higher education, to slow population growth and mitigate per capita carbon emissions. Results emphasize that LHT will be an important tool in understanding the demographic and consumption patterns that drive anthropogenic climate change.

1. Premise of the study: Determining how species perform in novel climatic environments is essential for understanding responses to climate change, and evolutionary consequences of biological invasions. For the vast majority of species, the population characteristics that will predict performance and patterns of natural selection in novel locations in the wild remains limited. 2. Methods: We evaluated phenological, vegetative, architectural and fitness-related traits in experimental gardens in contrasting climates (ON and SC) in the North American non-native distribution of Arabidopsis thaliana. We assessed the effects of climatic distance, geographic distance, and genetic features of history on performance and patterns of natural selection in the novel garden settings. 3. Key results: We found plants had greater survivorship, flowered earlier, were larger, and produced more fruit in the south, and that genotype by environment interactions were significant between gardens. However, our analyses revealed similar patterns of natural selection between gardens in distinct climate zones. After accounting for genetic ancestry, we also detected that population climatic distance best predicted performance within gardens. 4. Conclusion: These data suggest that colonization success in novel, non-native environments is determined by a combination of climate and genetic history. When performance at novel sites was assessed with seed sources from geographically and genetically disparate established non-native populations, proximity to the garden alone was insufficient to predict performance. Our study highlights the need to evaluate seed sources from diverse origins to describe comprehensively phenotypic responses to novel environments, particularly for taxa where many source populations may contribute to colonization.

Approximately 25% of mammals are currently threatened with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change. Species persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development, reproduction), and hence, population dynamics. Thus, to quantify which species and regions on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how different demographic rates respond to climate is urgently needed. Here, we perform a systematic review of literature on demographic responses to climate, focusing on terrestrial mammals, for which extensive demographic data are available. To assess the full spectrum of responses, we synthesize information from studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We find only 106 such studies, corresponding to 87 mammal species. These 87 species constitute < 1% of all terrestrial mammals. Our synthesis reveals a strong m..., For each mammal species i with available life-history information, we searched SCOPUS for studies (published before 2018) where the title, abstract, or keywords contained the following search terms:Â

Scientific species namei AND (demograph* OR population OR life-history OR "life history" OR model) AND (climat* OR precipitation OR rain* OR temperature OR weather) AND (surv* OR reprod* OR recruit* OR brood OR breed* OR mass OR weight OR size OR grow* OR offspring OR litter OR lambda OR birth OR mortality OR body OR hatch* OR fledg* OR productiv* OR age OR inherit* OR sex OR nest* OR fecund* OR progression OR pregnan* OR newborn OR longevity).

We used the R package taxize (Chamberlain and Szöcs 2013) to resolve discrepancies in scientific names or taxonomic identifiers and, where applicable, searched SCOPUS using all scientific names associated with a species in the Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS; http://www.itis.gov).

We did not extract information on demographic-r..., ReadMe File uploaded

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1805, and reached eight billion in 2022, and will peak at almost 10.2 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two-thirds of the world's population lives in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a few years later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

Climatic change is expected to affect individual life-histories and population dynamics, potentially increasing vulnerability to extinction. The importance of genetic diversity has been highlighted for adaptation and population persistence. However, whether responses of life-history traits to a given environmental condition depend on the genetic characteristics of a population remains elusive. Here we tested this hypothesis in the lizard Zootoca vivipara, by simultaneously manipulating habitat humidity, a major climatic predictor of Zootoca's distribution, and adult male colour morph frequency, a trait with genome-wide linkage. Interactive effects of humidity and morph frequency had immediate effects on growth and body condition of juveniles and yearlings, and on adult survival, and delayed effects on offspring size. In yearlings, higher humidity led to larger female body size, and lower humidity led to higher male compared to female survival. In juveniles and yearlings, some treatment ...

Capture_histories_Mark_fromat_2008_2014Text file containing capture histories, which is the raw data used in all capture-mark-recapture analyses of Capensibufo rosei in this paper, and are in the format used by program Mark (White and Burnham 1999). Each '1'/'0' represents a positive (captured) or negative (not captured) history respectively, for a particular year from 2008 to 2014; the number thereafter represents n individuals with that particular capture history.Model_covariatesThese data are all the model covariates needed to run all capture-mark-recapture models in this paper. Although the variable titles are mostly self-explanatory, refer to the paper Methods for a more detailed description of each covariate.

1. Contemporary climate change affects population dynamics, but its influence varies with landscape structure. It is still unclear whether landscape fragmentation buffers or enhances the effects of climate on population size and on the age and body size of individuals composing these populations.
2. This study aims to investigate the impacts of warm climates on lizard life-history traits and population dynamics in habitats varying in their connectivity.
3. We monitored common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) populations for three years in an experimental system in which both climatic conditions and connectivity among habitats were simultaneously manipulated. We considered two climatic treatments (i.e., present-day climate and warm climate (+1.4°C than present-day climate)) and two connectivity treatments (i.e., a connected treatment in which individuals could move from one climate to the other and an isolated treatment in which movement between climates was not possible). We monitored survival...

The U.S. landscape has undergone substantial changes since Europeans first arrived. Many land use changes are attributable to human activity. Historical data concerning these changes are frequently limited and often difficult to develop. Modeling historical land use changes may be necessary. We develop annual population series from first European settlement to 1999 for all 50 states and Washington D.C. for use in modeling land use trends. Extensive research went into developing the historical data. Linear interpolation was used to complete the series after critically evaluating the appropriateness of linear interpolation versus exponential interpolation.Our objective was to develop an annual population data series from the first nonindigenous settlements to 1999 for each present day state that could be used to model landscape change presumed to be a direct result of activities associated with the settlement of nonindigenous people.

Until the 1800s, population growth was incredibly slow on a global level. The global population was estimated to have been around 188 million people in the year 1CE, and did not reach one billion until around 1803. However, since the 1800s, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition has seen population growth skyrocket, reaching eight billion people in 2023, and this is expected to peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s.

The file shows distribution data of Oratosquilla oratoria used to perform species distribution model analyses

The Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) data set. The grids were created by using rates of population change between decades from the coarser resolution History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) database to back-cast the GRUMPv1 population density grids. Mismatches between the spatial extent of the HYDE calculated rates and GRUMPv1 population data were resolved via infilling rate cells based on a focal mean of values. Finally, the grids were adjusted so that the population totals for each country equaled the UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision) estimates for that country for the respective year (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). These data do not represent census observations for the years prior to 2000, and therefore can at best be thought of as estimations of the populations in given locations. The population grids are consistent internally within the time series, but are not recommended for use in creating longer time series with any other population grids, including GRUMPv1, Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4), or non-SEDAC developed population grids. These population grids served as an input to SEDAC's Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000 data set.

Author: S Wicklund, educator, Minnesota Alliance for Geographic EducationGrade/Audience: high schoolResource type: lessonSubject topic(s): population, mapsRegion: worldStandards: Minnesota Social Studies Standards

Standard 1. People use geographic representations and geospatial technologies to acquire, process and report information within a spatial context.

Standard 3. Places have physical characteristics (such as climate, topography and vegetation) and human characteristics (such as culture, population, political and economic systems).

Standard 5. The characteristics, distribution and migration of human populations on the earth’s surface influence human systems (cultural, economic and political systems).Objectives: Students will be able to:

1. Use maps of population distribution to examine the history of world population growth.
2. Construct a dot map to show current world population distribution.
3. Describe the difference between arithmetic and physiological densities.
4. Craft a response to a prompt to evaluate the Negative Population Growth perspective. Summary: Students will use maps of population distribution to examine the history of world population growth. They will also examine current world population distribution. Students will role-play the difference between arithmetic and physiologic densities using Egypt as an example. They will then craft a response to a prompt where they evaluate the Negative Population Growth perspective.

Many species facing climate change have complex life cycles, with individuals in different stages differing in their sensitivity to a changing climate and their contribution to population growth. We use a quantitative genetics model to predict the dynamics of adaptation in a stage-structured population confronted with a steadily changing environment. Our model assumes that different optimal phenotypic values maximize different fitness components, consistent with many empirical observations. In a constant environment, the population evolves towards an equilibrium phenotype, which represents the best compromise given the trade-off between vital rates. In a changing environment however, the mean phenotype in the population will lag behind this optimal compromise. We show that this lag may result in a shift along the trade-off between vital rates, with negative consequences for some fitness components, but, less intuitively, improvements in some others. Complex eco-evolutionary dynamics can emerge in our model due to feedbacks between population demography and adaptation. Because of such feedbacks loops, selection may favor further shifts in life history in the same direction as caused by maladaptive lags. These shifts in life history could be wrongly interpreted as adaptations to the new environment, while they only reflect the inability of the population to adapt fast enough.

We studied among-population differences of two parameters reflecting constitutive immunity – phenoloxidase (PO) and lytic activity – using common garden design on three distantly related moth species represented by populations ranging from northern Finland to Georgia (Caucasus).

Climate warming is predicted to increase mean temperatures and thermal extremes on a global scale. Because their body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, ectotherms bear the full brunt of climate warming. Predicting the impact of climate warming on ectotherm diversity and distributions requires a framework that can translate temperature effects on ectotherm life history traits into population- and community-level outcomes. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that can predict the fundamental thermal niche and climate envelope of ectotherm species based on how temperature affects the underlying life history traits. The advantage of this framework is two-fold. First, it can translate temperature effects on the phenotypic traits of individual organisms to population-level patterns observed in nature. Second, it can predict thermal niches and climate envelopes based solely on trait response data and hence completely independently of any population-level info..., Please see Sections 4.2.2 and 4.2.3 of the Simon and Amarasekare Ecology paper for details on the experiments and parameter estimation approach used to collect and process this dataset., , ```

Description of the data and file structure

This repository includes the following files:

Bagrada and harlequin data files containing the life history trait response data of the bagrada and harlequin bugs. These include the following files in csv format:

1\) **Bagrada-Amort**: columns are Temp.K (temperature in degrees Kelvin), Average.rate.per.day (average adult deaths per day), 95.CI.min (lower 95% confidence interval), 95.CI.max (upper 95% confidence interval), SE (standard error)

2\) **Bagrada-Fec**: columns are Temp.K (temperature in degrees Kelvin), Average.rate.per.day (average eggs laid per female per day), 95.CI.min (lower 95% confidence interval), 95.CI.max (upper 95% confidence interval), SE (standard error)

3\) **Bagrada-Jmort**: columns are Temp.K (temperature in degrees Kelvin), Average.rate.per.day (average juvenile deaths per day), 95.CI.min (lower 95% confidence interval), 95.CI.max (upper 95% confidence interval), SE (standard error)

4\) **Bagrada-MatRa...