In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2025-07-28 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-07-24 about maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, 5-year, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS1MO) from 2001-07-31 to 2025-07-29 about 1-month, bills, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The yield on Indonesia 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.54% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.05 points and is 0.35 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Indonesia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Key information about Taiwan Short Term Government Bond Yield

• Taiwan Short Term Government Bond Yield: Daily: Taiwan: 2 Years was reported at 1.30 % pa in Mar 2025, compared with 1.30 % pa in the previous day.
• Taiwan Short Term Government Bond Yield data is updated daily, available from Jul 2002 to Mar 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 1.45 % pa in Jan 2025 and a record low of 0.08 % pa in Oct 2020.
• Short Term Government Bond Yield is reported by CEIC Data.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to May 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.47% on July 29, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.20 points and is 0.24 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.37% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.54 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Key information about Japan Short Term Interest Rate

• Japan Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: TIBOR: Japanese Yen: 3 Months was reported at 0.79 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 0.77 % pa in the previous month.
• Japan Short Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1997 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 1.16 % pa in Dec 1997 and a record low of 0.05 % pa in Nov 2022.
• Short Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by JBA TIBOR Administration.

• In the latest reports, Japan Bonds Yield: Government Bonds: Newly Issued: 10 Years: Month End was reported at 1.24 % pa in Jan 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Japan: Complementary Deposit Facility Interest Rate) was set at -0.10 % pa in Jun 2023.
• Japan Exchange Rate against USD averaged 141.36 (USD/JPY) in Jun 2023.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates, Government Securities, Treasury Bills for Brazil (INTGSTBRM193N) from Jan 1995 to Jun 2025 about Brazil, bills, securities, Treasury, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield eased to 13.99% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.12 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.49 points and is 2.01 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield (BAA) from Jan 1919 to Jun 2025 about Baa, bonds, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield eased to 4.61% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.15 points and is 0.64 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. UK 10 Year Gilt Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Sweden was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sweden Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The yield on Canada 5 Year Bond Yield eased to 3.03% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.11 points, though it remains 0 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Canada 5Y.