The spread between 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.1 percent in November 2024. The 10-year minus two-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity was 0.30% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity reached a record high of 2.91 in February of 2011 and a record low of -2.41 in March of 1980. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

As of December 30, 2024, 14 economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of 1,370 percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with -350 percent; and Russia with -273 percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T5YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about yield curve, spread, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, 5-year, rate, and USA.

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

US 10 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.34 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-03-24 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BAA10Y) from 1986-01-02 to 2025-03-25 about Baa, spread, 10-year, maturity, bonds, Treasury, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.78 percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity was 0.02% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity reached a record high of 5.18 in August of 1982 and a record low of -1.89 in May of 2023. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

10 Year TIPS Yield was 1.98 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 10 Year TIPS Yield.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T1YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about yield curve, 1-year, spread, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

China 10Y Bond Yield was 1.88 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of 27.38 percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Russia 10Y Bond Yield was 15.01 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Russia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Germany 10Y Bond Yield was 2.79 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Japan 10Y Bond Yield was 1.59 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.