In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ***** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; 10-Year Treasury Yield, Level (BOGZ1FL073161113Q) from Q1 1962 to Q1 2025 about savings, liabilities, bonds, securities, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield rose to 2.69% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.21 points and is 0.19 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on Indonesia 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.56% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.11 points and is 0.37 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Indonesia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

This table contains 71 series, with data starting from 1934 (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (1 items: Canada ...), Rates (71 items: Bank rate; last Tuesday or last Thursday; Bank rate; Chartered bank administered interest rates - prime business; Chartered bank - consumer loan rate ...).

China Closing Price: 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures: First Quarter Month data was reported at 108.535 RMB in 14 May 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 108.715 RMB for 13 May 2025. China Closing Price: 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures: First Quarter Month data is updated daily, averaging 99.580 RMB from Mar 2015 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 2467 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 109.535 RMB in 06 Feb 2025 and a record low of 91.495 RMB in 18 Jan 2018. China Closing Price: 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures: First Quarter Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by China Financial Futures Exchange. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Financial Market – Table CN.ZI: China Financial Futures Exchange: Treasury Bond Futures: Closing and Settlement Price: Daily .

An index that can be used to gauge broad financial conditions and assess how these conditions are related to future economic growth. The index is broadly consistent with how the FRB/US model generally relates key financial variables to economic activity. The index aggregates changes in seven financial variables: the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the triple-B corporate bond yield, the Dow Jones total stock market index, the Zillow house price index, and the nominal broad dollar index using weights implied by the FRB/US model and other models in use at the Federal Reserve Board. These models relate households' spending and businesses' investment decisions to changes in short- and long-term interest rates, house and equity prices, and the exchange value of the dollar, among other factors. These financial variables are weighted using impulse response coefficients (dynamic multipliers) that quantify the cumulative effects of unanticipated permanent changes in each financial variable on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the subsequent year. The resulting index is named Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G). One appealing feature of the FCI-G is that its movements can be used to measure whether financial conditions have tightened or loosened, to summarize how changes in financial conditions are associated with real GDP growth over the following year, or both.

Due to financial unrest caused by the coronavirus outbreak in March 2020, the yield of ******** governments in the Netherlands dropped significantly. During the last quarter 2021, the yield on ******* government bonds was on average ***** percent. The beginning of 2022 saw the start of a positive yield with the rate resting at an average of **** percent as of the second quarter of 2024. A ******** government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in *** years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ******** government bond, the better the economic outlook.

This report analyses the yield on New Zealand 10-year government bonds. These are government securities that pay a fixed-interest coupon in arrears on a semi-annual basis. The yield is calculated using the interest rate and the difference between the market price of the bond and the value redeemable at par on maturity. Data for this report is sourced from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Te Putea Matua) and is presented as the average yield over each financial year.

The yield on Spain 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.33% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.25 points and is 0.07 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Spain 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

China Settlement Price: 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures: Third Quarter Month data was reported at 108.620 RMB in 14 May 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 108.810 RMB for 13 May 2025. China Settlement Price: 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures: Third Quarter Month data is updated daily, averaging 98.550 RMB from Mar 2015 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 2467 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 109.545 RMB in 06 Feb 2025 and a record low of 91.625 RMB in 19 Jan 2018. China Settlement Price: 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures: Third Quarter Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by China Financial Futures Exchange. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Financial Market – Table CN.ZI: China Financial Futures Exchange: Treasury Bond Futures: Closing and Settlement Price: Daily .

Georgia Yield on Government Bonds: 10 Years data was reported at 8.822 % pa in Oct 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 9.016 % pa for Jul 2018. Georgia Yield on Government Bonds: 10 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 10.464 % pa from Mar 2012 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 29 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.478 % pa in Feb 2016 and a record low of 8.822 % pa in Oct 2018. Georgia Yield on Government Bonds: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Finance of Georgia . The data is categorized under Global Database’s Georgia – Table GE.M002: Interest Rates: Money and Government Papers.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.66% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0 points, though it remains 0.60 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on France 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.42% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.23 points and is 0.27 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Dataset

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China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Yield to Maturity: 10 year data was reported at 3.715 % pa in Jul 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.421 % pa for Jun 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Yield to Maturity: 10 year data is updated monthly, averaging 4.072 % pa from Jul 2008 (Median) to Jul 2020, with 145 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.805 % pa in Jan 2014 and a record low of 3.003 % pa in Apr 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Yield to Maturity: 10 year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Interbank Funding Center. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: NIFC: Policy Financial Bond Yield: Yield to Maturity.

The spread between 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.1 percent in November 2024. The 10-year minus two-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.