In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

At the end of 2023, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was 3.96 percent. The highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Canada (IRLTLT01CAM156N) from Jan 1955 to Feb 2025 about long-term, Canada, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

10 Year TIPS Yield was 1.98 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 10 Year TIPS Yield.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (DLTIIT) from 2000-01-03 to 2025-03-24 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

South Korea 10Y Bond Yield was 2.83 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. South Korea 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

The average yearly yield of French 10-year government bonds has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2023. Starting at nearly ten percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of -0.14 percent in 2020. After 2020, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Japan (IRLTLT01JPQ156N) from Q1 1989 to Q4 2024 about long-term, 10-year, Japan, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

Mexico 10Y Bond Yield was 9.85 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Mexico 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity was 4.34% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity reached a record high of 15.84 in September of 1981 and a record low of 0.52 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Portugal (IRLTLT01PTQ156N) from Q3 1993 to Q4 2024 about Portugal, long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

Georgia Yield on Government Bonds: 10 Years data was reported at 8.822 % pa in Oct 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 9.016 % pa for Jul 2018. Georgia Yield on Government Bonds: 10 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 10.464 % pa from Mar 2012 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 29 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.478 % pa in Feb 2016 and a record low of 8.822 % pa in Oct 2018. Georgia Yield on Government Bonds: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Finance of Georgia . The data is categorized under Global Database’s Georgia – Table GE.M002: Interest Rates: Money and Government Papers.

France 10Y Bond Yield was 3.46 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Historical dataset of the daily 10 year treasury yield back to 1962. The 10 year treasury is the benchmark used to decide mortgage rates across the U.S. and is the most liquid and widely traded bond in the world.

United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years data was reported at 3.753 % in Dec 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.745 % for Sep 2028. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.677 % from Mar 2013 (Median) to Dec 2028, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.958 % in Sep 2021 and a record low of 1.563 % in Sep 2016. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M009: Treasury Securities Yields: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

The average yearly yield of Japanese 10-year government bonds has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Starting at seven percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of -0.11 percent in 2019. After 2019, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations.

The average yearly yield of German10-year government bonds has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2023. Starting at nearly nine percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of -0.51 percent in 2020. After 2020, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.

These rates are commonly referred to as Constant Maturity Treasury rates, or CMTs. Yields are interpolated by the Treasury from the daily yield curve. This curve, which relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity is based on the closing market bid yields on actively traded Treasury securities in the over-the-counter market. These market yields are calculated from composites of quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The yield values are read from the yield curve at fixed maturities, currently 1, 3 and 6 months and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years. This method provides a yield for a 10 year maturity, for example, even if no outstanding security has exactly 10 years remaining to maturity.