In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

US 10 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.34 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

After to as low as low as 0.55 percent in July 2020, in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, the yield on 10-year U.S treasury bonds increased considerably. As of June 2024, it reached 4.36 percent.

Graph and download economic data for Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond (THREEFYTP10) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-03-21 about term premium, 10-year, bonds, and USA.

United States - Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond was 0.51% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond reached a record high of 2.52 in April of 1992 and a record low of -0.66 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

United States - Fitted Yield on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond was 4.31% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Fitted Yield on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond reached a record high of 9.07 in September of 1990 and a record low of 0.58 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Fitted Yield on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

10 Year TIPS Yield was 1.98 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 10 Year TIPS Yield.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to Jan 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

China 10Y Bond Yield was 1.88 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of 27.38 percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Thailand 10Y Bond Yield was 2.09 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Thailand 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

At the end of 2023, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was 3.96 percent. The highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (WLTIIT) from 2000-01-07 to 2025-03-21 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Germany Zero Coupon Bond Yield: Mort & Public: Residual Mat: 10 Years data was reported at 2.960 % pa in Feb 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.070 % pa for Jan 2025. Germany Zero Coupon Bond Yield: Mort & Public: Residual Mat: 10 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 3.260 % pa from Jan 2000 (Median) to Feb 2025, with 302 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.100 % pa in Jan 2000 and a record low of -0.170 % pa in Aug 2019. Germany Zero Coupon Bond Yield: Mort & Public: Residual Mat: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Deutsche Bundesbank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.M018: Mortgage & Public Bonds: Zero Coupon Bond Yield.

Japan 10Y Bond Yield was 1.59 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Brazil 10Y Bond Yield was 15.16 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS20) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about 20-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

India 10Y Bond Yield was 6.60 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Germany Zero Coupon Bond Yield: Listed Fed Sec: Residual Mat: 10 Years data was reported at 2.420 % pa in Feb 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.510 % pa for Jan 2025. Germany Zero Coupon Bond Yield: Listed Fed Sec: Residual Mat: 10 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 5.335 % pa from Sep 1972 (Median) to Feb 2025, with 630 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 11.300 % pa in Jul 1974 and a record low of -0.710 % pa in Aug 2019. Germany Zero Coupon Bond Yield: Listed Fed Sec: Residual Mat: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Deutsche Bundesbank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.M015: Listed Federal Securities: Zero Coupon Bond Yield.