In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.96% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.11 points and is 0.56 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.28% on June 26, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.17 points and is 0.01 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on South Korea 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.15% on July 10, 2025, marking a 0.29 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.31 points, though it remains 0.08 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. South Korea 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.50% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.17 points and is 0.09 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to May 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

This statistic shows the yield on ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands from 2011 to 2023 with a forecast for 2024 and 2025. In 2023, the long-term interest rate was at *** percent. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

The yield on US 3 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 3.87% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.01 points and is 0.36 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.66% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0 points, though it remains 0.60 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

MFCR Forecast: Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years data was reported at 4.000 % pa in Dec 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.100 % pa for Sep 2025. MFCR Forecast: Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.265 % pa from Mar 2017 (Median) to Dec 2025, with 36 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.580 % pa in Mar 2023 and a record low of 0.770 % pa in Jun 2017. MFCR Forecast: Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Czech Republic – Table CZ.M009: Treasury Bond Yield: Forecast: Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.51% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.05 points and is 0.46 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.41% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.04 points and is 0.23 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield rose to 2.69% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.21 points and is 0.19 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Spain 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.33% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.25 points and is 0.07 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Spain 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Slovakia SK: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds data was reported at 3.487 % in 2026. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.357 % for 2025. Slovakia SK: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds data is updated yearly, averaging 3.872 % from Dec 1996 (Median) to 2026, with 31 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 21.725 % in 1998 and a record low of -0.080 % in 2021. Slovakia SK: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Slovakia – Table SK.OECD.EO: Interest Rate: Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. IRL - Long-term interest rate on government bonds; Yield of long term government bond yield. Before September 2000, data refer to average interest rate yield for Government Bonds achieved on the primary market (with 2 years maturity). From September 2000, data refer to yields on 10-year benchmark bonds

Canada CA: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds data was reported at 2.900 % in 2026. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.018 % for 2025. Canada CA: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds data is updated yearly, averaging 5.541 % from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2026, with 67 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.989 % in 1981 and a record low of 0.753 % in 2020. Canada CA: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.OECD.EO: Interest Rate: Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. IRL - Long-term interest rate on government bonds; Yield 10-year federal government benchmark bond)

The yield on Italy 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.61% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.20 points, though it remains 0.18 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.