In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years: Annual data was reported at 3.742 % in 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.715 % for 2027. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years: Annual data is updated yearly, averaging 3.676 % from Dec 2013 (Median) to 2028, with 16 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.954 % in 2021 and a record low of 1.841 % in 2016. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years: Annual data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M009: Treasury Securities Yields: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

This statistic shows the yield on ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands from 2011 to 2023 with a forecast for 2024 and 2025. In 2023, the long-term interest rate was at *** percent. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

The yield on US 3 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 3.87% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.01 points and is 0.36 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.50% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.17 points and is 0.09 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

United States CBO Projection: Treasury Bills Yield: 10 Years data was reported at 2.822 % in Dec 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.816 % for Sep 2028. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Bills Yield: 10 Years data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.744 % from Mar 2013 (Median) to Dec 2028, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.240 % in Mar 2022 and a record low of 0.020 % in Jun 2015. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Bills Yield: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M009: Treasury Securities Yields: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.28% on June 26, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.17 points and is 0.01 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.51% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.05 points and is 0.46 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Years: Mean: Plus 3 Qtrs data was reported at 3.363 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.113 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Years: Mean: Plus 3 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.927 % from Mar 1992 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 106 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.891 % in Dec 1994 and a record low of 2.060 % in Sep 2012. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Years: Mean: Plus 3 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.96% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.11 points and is 0.56 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Annual 10 Year Bond Yield: Median: Next 10 Yrs data was reported at 3.700 % in 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.860 % for 2017. United States FRBOP Forecast: Annual 10 Year Bond Yield: Median: Next 10 Yrs data is updated yearly, averaging 5.000 % from Dec 1992 (Median) to 2018, with 27 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.500 % in 1992 and a record low of 3.386 % in 2016. United States FRBOP Forecast: Annual 10 Year Bond Yield: Median: Next 10 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Year: Mean: Current data was reported at 3.014 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.924 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Year: Mean: Current data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.594 % from Mar 1992 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 106 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.691 % in Mar 1995 and a record low of 1.748 % in Dec 2016. United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Year: Mean: Current data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to May 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds 10 Year: Median: Current Plus 1 Yr data was reported at 3.462 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.381 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds 10 Year: Median: Current Plus 1 Yr data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.992 % from Mar 1992 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 106 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.930 % in Dec 1994 and a record low of 2.075 % in Dec 2012. United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds 10 Year: Median: Current Plus 1 Yr data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.41% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.04 points and is 0.23 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).