In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Track real-time 1 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS3) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-10-09 about 3-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.63% on October 10, 2025, marking a 0.07 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.02 points, though it remains 0.36 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Sep 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Track real-time 6 Month Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.17% on October 10, 2025, marking a 0.04 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has remained flat, and it is 0.05 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

The yield on Kenya 10Y Bond Yield held steady at 13.46% on October 15, 2025. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.03 points, though it remains 3.63 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Kenya 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS1MO) from 2001-07-31 to 2025-10-09 about 1-month, bills, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on US 20 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.59% on October 14, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.02 points, though it remains 0.21 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for US 20Y.

The yield on Spain 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.16% on October 14, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.09 points, though it remains 0.21 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Spain 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

The yield on Australia 10Y Bond Yield eased to 4.24% on October 14, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.03 points and is 0.02 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The yield on UK 5 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.10% on October 13, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.04 points and is 0.01 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United Kingdom 5 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

View market daily updates and historical trends for Italy-Germany 10 Year Bond Spread. Source: Eurostat. Track economic data with YCharts analytics.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to two percent by June 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

The yield on UK 20 Year Bond Yield eased to 5.35% on October 13, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.02 points and is 0.64 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for UK 20Y.