As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

View a 10-year yield estimated from the average yields of a variety of Treasury securities with different maturities derived from the Treasury yield curve.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Aug 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The spread between 10–year and two–year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.49 percent in June 2025. The 10–year minus two–year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000–2001, and the financial crisis of 2007–2008.

U.S. ten-year government bonds have provided significantly higher yields compared to German ten-year bonds since 2008, with the former yielding 4.42 percent in May 2025 compared to 2.56 percent for the latter. Being safe but low-return investments, treasury bond yields are generally considered an indicator of investor confidence about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand, meaning that investors prefer to invest in higher-risk, higher-reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-08-28 about yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BAA10Y) from 1986-01-02 to 2025-08-28 about Baa, spread, 10-year, maturity, bonds, Treasury, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.78% on September 1, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.06 points, though it remains 0.38 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

The yield on Kenya 10Y Bond Yield rose to 13.44% on September 1, 2025, marking a 0.11 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.05 points, though it remains 3.46 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Kenya 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS3) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-08-28 about 3-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In January 2020, prior to the onset of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, three of the seven largest economies by GDP had negative yields for two-year government bonds (Japan, Germany and France). With the onset of the pandemic, two-year bond yields in these countries actually rose slightly - in contrast to the other major economies, where yields fell over this period. As of December 2024, yields for two-year government bonds exhibited fluctuations across all countries. Notably, Japan showed a slight upward trend, while China experienced a modest decline.Negative yields assume that investors lack confidence in economic growth, meaning many investments (such as stocks) may lose value. Therefore, it is preferable to take a small loss on government debt that carries almost no risk to the investor, than risk a larger loss on other investments. As both the yen and euro are considered very safe assets, Japanese, German and French bonds were already being held by many investors prior to the pandemic as a hedge against economic downturn. Therefore, with the announcement of fiscal responses to the pandemic by many governments around March 2020, the value of these assets rose as confidence increased (slightly) that the worst case may be avoided. At the same time, yields on bonds with a higher return fell, as investors sought out investments with a higher return that were still considered safe.

The yield on United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield rose to 4.76% on September 1, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.25 points and is 0.72 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. UK 10 Year Gilt Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-08-28 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on New Zealand 10Y Bond Yield rose to 4.42% on September 2, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.06 points, though it remains 0.11 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. New Zealand 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (AAA10Y) from 1983-01-03 to 2025-08-28 about AAA, spread, 10-year, maturity, bonds, Treasury, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (DFII5) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-08-28 about TIPS, maturity, Treasury, securities, 5-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The yield on Japan 2 Year Bond Yield rose to 0.89% on September 2, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.12 points and is 0.50 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 2 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.