On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: World Health Organization (WHO)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.125529863/7/2022 - Adjusted the rate of active cases calculation in the U.S. to reflect the rates of serious and severe cases due nearly completely dominant Omicron variant.6/24/2020 - Expanded Case Rates discussion to include fix on 6/23 for calculating active cases.6/22/2020 - Added Executive Summary and Subsequent Outbreaks sectionsRevisions on 6/10/2020 based on updated CDC reporting. This affects the estimate of active cases by revising the average duration of cases with hospital stays downward from 30 days to 25 days. The result shifted 76 U.S. counties out of Epidemic to Spreading trend and no change for national level trends.Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Correction on 6/1/2020Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Executive SummaryCOVID-19 Trends is a methodology for characterizing the current trend for places during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Each day we assign one of five trends: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, or End Stage to geographic areas to geographic areas based on the number of new cases, the number of active cases, the total population, and an algorithm (described below) that contextualize the most recent fourteen days with the overall COVID-19 case history. Currently we analyze the countries of the world and the U.S. Counties. The purpose is to give policymakers, citizens, and analysts a fact-based data driven sense for the direction each place is currently going. When a place has the initial cases, they are assigned Emergent, and if that place controls the rate of new cases, they can move directly to Controlled, and even to End Stage in a short time. However, if the reporting or measures to curtail spread are not adequate and significant numbers of new cases continue, they are assigned to Spreading, and in cases where the spread is clearly uncontrolled, Epidemic trend.We analyze the data reported by Johns Hopkins University to produce the trends, and we report the rates of cases, spikes of new cases, the number of days since the last reported case, and number of deaths. We also make adjustments to the assignments based on population so rural areas are not assigned trends based solely on case rates, which can be quite high relative to local populations.Two key factors are not consistently known or available and should be taken into consideration with the assigned trend. First is the amount of resources, e.g., hospital beds, physicians, etc.that are currently available in each area. Second is the number of recoveries, which are often not tested or reported. On the latter, we provide a probable number of active cases based on CDC guidance for the typical duration of mild to severe cases.Reasons for undertaking this work in March of 2020:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-25 days + 5% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. On 3/17/2022, the U.S. calculation was adjusted to: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 6% from past 15-25 days + 3% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions If a new variant arrives and appears to cause higher rates of serious cases, we will roll back this adjustment. We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source
COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Correction on 6/1/2020Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Reasons for undertaking this work:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-30 days + 5% from past 31-56 days - total deaths.We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source used as basis:Stephen A. Lauer, MS, PhD *; Kyra H. Grantz, BA *; Qifang Bi, MHS; Forrest K. Jones, MPH; Qulu Zheng, MHS; Hannah R. Meredith, PhD; Andrew S. Azman, PhD; Nicholas G. Reich, PhD; Justin Lessler, PhD. 2020. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine DOI: 10.7326/M20-0504.New Cases per Day (NCD) = Measures the daily spread of COVID-19. This is the basis for all rates. Back-casting revisions: In the Johns Hopkins’ data, the structure is to provide the cumulative number of cases per day, which presumes an ever-increasing sequence of numbers, e.g., 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,7, etc. However, revisions do occur and would look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,6. To accommodate this, we revised the lists to eliminate decreases, which make this list look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,6,6,6.Reporting Interval: In the early weeks, Johns Hopkins' data provided reporting every day regardless of change. In late April, this changed allowing for days to be skipped if no new data was available. The day was still included, but the value of total cases was set to Null. The processing therefore was updated to include tracking of the spacing between intervals with valid values.100 News Cases in a day as a spike threshold: Empirically, this is based on COVID-19’s rate of spread, or r0 of ~2.5, which indicates each case will infect between two and three other people. There is a point at which each administrative area’s capacity will not have the resources to trace and account for all contacts of each patient. Thus, this is an indicator of uncontrolled or epidemic trend. Spiking activity in combination with the rate of new cases is the basis for determining whether an area has a spreading or epidemic trend (see below). Source used as basis:World Health Organization (WHO). 16-24 Feb 2020. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Obtained online.Mean of Recent Tail of NCD = Empirical, and a COVID-19-specific basis for establishing a recent trend. The recent mean of NCD is taken from the most recent fourteen days. A minimum of 21 days of cases is required for analysis but cannot be considered reliable. Thus, a preference of 42 days of cases ensures much higher reliability. This analysis is not explanatory and thus, merely represents a likely trend. The tail is analyzed for the following:Most recent 2 days: In terms of likelihood, this does not mean much, but can indicate a reason for hope and a basis to share positive change that is not yet a trend. There are two worthwhile indicators:Last 2 days count of new cases is less than any in either the past five or 14 days. Past 2 days has only one or fewer new cases – this is an extremely positive outcome if the rate of testing has continued at the same rate as the previous 5 days or 14 days. Most recent 5 days: In terms of likelihood, this is more meaningful, as it does represent at short-term trend. There are five worthwhile indicators:Past five days is greater than past 2 days and past 14 days indicates the potential of the past 2 days being an aberration. Past five days is greater than past 14 days and less than past 2 days indicates slight positive trend, but likely still within peak trend time frame.Past five days is less than the past 14 days. This means a downward trend. This would be an
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License information was derived automatically
The data files contain information on the 14-day notification rate of newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population and the 14-day notification rate of reported deaths per million population by week and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a certain day and per country. The file is updated weekly.
Disclaimer: The figures in the files may differ slightly from those displayed in the latest ECDC Weekly country overviews in the event of retrospective corrections of the data after the country overview has been published.
If you reuse or enrich this dataset, please share it with us.
https://www.usa.gov/government-workshttps://www.usa.gov/government-works
Reporting of new Aggregate Case and Death Count data was discontinued May 11, 2023, with the expiration of the COVID-19 public health emergency declaration. This dataset will receive a final update on June 1, 2023, to reconcile historical data through May 10, 2023, and will remain publicly available.
Aggregate Data Collection Process Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, data have been gathered through a robust process with the following steps:
Methodology Changes Several differences exist between the current, weekly-updated dataset and the archived version:
Confirmed and Probable Counts In this dataset, counts by jurisdiction are not displayed by confirmed or probable status. Instead, confirmed and probable cases and deaths are included in the Total Cases and Total Deaths columns, when available. Not all jurisdictions report probable cases and deaths to CDC.* Confirmed and probable case definition criteria are described here:
Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (ymaws.com).
Deaths CDC reports death data on other sections of the website: CDC COVID Data Tracker: Home, CDC COVID Data Tracker: Cases, Deaths, and Testing, and NCHS Provisional Death Counts. Information presented on the COVID Data Tracker pages is based on the same source (total case counts) as the present dataset; however, NCHS Death Counts are based on death certificates that use information reported by physicians, medical examiners, or coroners in the cause-of-death section of each certificate. Data from each of these pages are considered provisional (not complete and pending verification) and are therefore subject to change. Counts from previous weeks are continually revised as more records are received and processed.
Number of Jurisdictions Reporting There are currently 60 public health jurisdictions reporting cases of COVID-19. This includes the 50 states, the District of Columbia, New York City, the U.S. territories of American Samoa, Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S Virgin Islands as well as three independent countries in compacts of free association with the United States, Federated States of Micronesia, Republic of the Marshall Islands, and Republic of Palau. New York State’s reported case and death counts do not include New York City’s counts as they separately report nationally notifiable conditions to CDC.
CDC COVID-19 data are available to the public as summary or aggregate count files, including total counts of cases and deaths, available by state and by county. These and other data on COVID-19 are available from multiple public locations, such as:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/open-america/surveillance-data-analytics.html
Additional COVID-19 public use datasets, include line-level (patient-level) data, are available at: https://data.cdc.gov/browse?tags=covid-19.
Archived Data Notes:
November 3, 2022: Due to a reporting cadence issue, case rates for Missouri counties are calculated based on 11 days’ worth of case count data in the Weekly United States COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State data released on November 3, 2022, instead of the customary 7 days’ worth of data.
November 10, 2022: Due to a reporting cadence change, case rates for Alabama counties are calculated based on 13 days’ worth of case count data in the Weekly United States COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State data released on November 10, 2022, instead of the customary 7 days’ worth of data.
November 10, 2022: Per the request of the jurisdiction, cases and deaths among non-residents have been removed from all Hawaii county totals throughout the entire time series. Cumulative case and death counts reported by CDC will no longer match Hawaii’s COVID-19 Dashboard, which still includes non-resident cases and deaths.
November 17, 2022: Two new columns, weekly historic cases and weekly historic deaths, were added to this dataset on November 17, 2022. These columns reflect case and death counts that were reported that week but were historical in nature and not reflective of the current burden within the jurisdiction. These historical cases and deaths are not included in the new weekly case and new weekly death columns; however, they are reflected in the cumulative totals provided for each jurisdiction. These data are used to account for artificial increases in case and death totals due to batched reporting of historical data.
December 1, 2022: Due to cadence changes over the Thanksgiving holiday, case rates for all Ohio counties are reported as 0 in the data released on December 1, 2022.
January 5, 2023: Due to North Carolina’s holiday reporting cadence, aggregate case and death data will contain 14 days’ worth of data instead of the customary 7 days. As a result, case and death metrics will appear higher than expected in the January 5, 2023, weekly release.
January 12, 2023: Due to data processing delays, Mississippi’s aggregate case and death data will be reported as 0. As a result, case and death metrics will appear lower than expected in the January 12, 2023, weekly release.
January 19, 2023: Due to a reporting cadence issue, Mississippi’s aggregate case and death data will be calculated based on 14 days’ worth of data instead of the customary 7 days in the January 19, 2023, weekly release.
January 26, 2023: Due to a reporting backlog of historic COVID-19 cases, case rates for two Michigan counties (Livingston and Washtenaw) were higher than expected in the January 19, 2023 weekly release.
January 26, 2023: Due to a backlog of historic COVID-19 cases being reported this week, aggregate case and death counts in Charlotte County and Sarasota County, Florida, will appear higher than expected in the January 26, 2023 weekly release.
January 26, 2023: Due to data processing delays, Mississippi’s aggregate case and death data will be reported as 0 in the weekly release posted on January 26, 2023.
February 2, 2023: As of the data collection deadline, CDC observed an abnormally large increase in aggregate COVID-19 cases and deaths reported for Washington State. In response, totals for new cases and new deaths released on February 2, 2023, have been displayed as zero at the state level until the issue is addressed with state officials. CDC is working with state officials to address the issue.
February 2, 2023: Due to a decrease reported in cumulative case counts by Wyoming, case rates will be reported as 0 in the February 2, 2023, weekly release. CDC is working with state officials to verify the data submitted.
February 16, 2023: Due to data processing delays, Utah’s aggregate case and death data will be reported as 0 in the weekly release posted on February 16, 2023. As a result, case and death metrics will appear lower than expected and should be interpreted with caution.
February 16, 2023: Due to a reporting cadence change, Maine’s
As of May 2, 2023, the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) had spread to almost every country in the world, and more than 6.86 million people had died after contracting the respiratory virus. Over 1.16 million of these deaths occurred in the United States.
Waves of infections Almost every country and territory worldwide have been affected by the COVID-19 disease. At the end of 2021 the virus was once again circulating at very high rates, even in countries with relatively high vaccination rates such as the United States and Germany. As rates of new infections increased, some countries in Europe, like Germany and Austria, tightened restrictions once again, specifically targeting those who were not yet vaccinated. However, by spring 2022, rates of new infections had decreased in many countries and restrictions were once again lifted.
What are the symptoms of the virus? It can take up to 14 days for symptoms of the illness to start being noticed. The most commonly reported symptoms are a fever and a dry cough, leading to shortness of breath. The early symptoms are similar to other common viruses such as the common cold and flu. These illnesses spread more during cold months, but there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that temperature impacts the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Medical advice should be sought if you are experiencing any of these symptoms.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The dataset contains information on the 14-day notification rate of newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population and the 14-day notification rate of reported deaths per million population by week and Country.
It is based on data originally downloaded by the site https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19.
Raw data from ECDC, harmonization and homogenization of data from UNIPV - Laboratory of Geomatics
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The dataset contains information on the 14-day notification rate of newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population by age group, week and Country.
It is based on data originally downloaded by the site https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19.
Raw data from ECDC, harmonization and homogenization of data from UNIPV - Laboratory of Geomatics
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The data files contain information on the 14-day notification rate of newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population by week and subnational region. Each row contains the corresponding data for a certain week and subnational region.
Please note that daily data on cases per subnational region are also available for selected countries at the page 'Download data on the daily subnational 14-day notification rate of new COVID-19 cases'. There may be differences between the rates shown in these two datasets since they are based on different sources of data.
The file is updated weekly every Wednesday.
If you reuse or enrich this dataset, please share it with us.
On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit the following sources: World Health Organization (WHO)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.-- Esri COVID-19 Trend Report for 3-9-2023 --0 Countries have Emergent trend with more than 10 days of cases: (name : # of active cases) 41 Countries have Spreading trend with over 21 days in new cases curve tail: (name : # of active cases)Monaco : 13, Andorra : 25, Marshall Islands : 52, Kyrgyzstan : 79, Cuba : 82, Saint Lucia : 127, Cote d'Ivoire : 148, Albania : 155, Bosnia and Herzegovina : 172, Iceland : 196, Mali : 198, Suriname : 246, Botswana : 247, Barbados : 274, Dominican Republic : 304, Malta : 306, Venezuela : 334, Micronesia : 346, Uzbekistan : 356, Afghanistan : 371, Jamaica : 390, Latvia : 402, Mozambique : 406, Kosovo : 412, Azerbaijan : 427, Tunisia : 528, Armenia : 594, Kuwait : 716, Thailand : 746, Norway : 768, Croatia : 847, Honduras : 1002, Zimbabwe : 1067, Saudi Arabia : 1098, Bulgaria : 1148, Zambia : 1166, Panama : 1300, Uruguay : 1483, Kazakhstan : 1671, Paraguay : 2080, Ecuador : 53320 Countries may have Spreading trend with under 21 days in new cases curve tail: (name : # of active cases)61 Countries have Epidemic trend with over 21 days in new cases curve tail: (name : # of active cases)Liechtenstein : 48, San Marino : 111, Mauritius : 742, Estonia : 761, Trinidad and Tobago : 1296, Montenegro : 1486, Luxembourg : 1540, Qatar : 1541, Philippines : 1915, Ireland : 1946, Brunei : 2010, United Arab Emirates : 2013, Denmark : 2111, Sweden : 2149, Finland : 2154, Hungary : 2169, Lebanon : 2208, Bolivia : 2838, Colombia : 3250, Switzerland : 3321, Peru : 3328, Slovakia : 3556, Malaysia : 3608, Indonesia : 3793, Portugal : 4049, Cyprus : 4279, Argentina : 5050, Iran : 5135, Lithuania : 5323, Guatemala : 5516, Slovenia : 5689, South Africa : 6604, Georgia : 7938, Moldova : 8082, Israel : 8746, Bahrain : 8932, Netherlands : 9710, Romania : 12375, Costa Rica : 12625, Singapore : 13816, Serbia : 14093, Czechia : 14897, Spain : 17399, Ukraine : 19568, Canada : 24913, New Zealand : 25136, Belgium : 30599, Poland : 38894, Chile : 41055, Australia : 50192, Mexico : 65453, United Kingdom : 65697, France : 68318, Italy : 70391, Austria : 90483, Brazil : 134279, Korea - South : 209145, Russia : 214935, Germany : 257248, Japan : 361884, US : 6440500 Countries may have Epidemic trend with under 21 days in new cases curve tail: (name : # of active cases) 54 Countries have Controlled trend: (name : # of active cases)Palau : 3, Saint Kitts and Nevis : 4, Guinea-Bissau : 7, Cabo Verde : 8, Mongolia : 8, Benin : 9, Maldives : 10, Comoros : 10, Gambia : 12, Bhutan : 14, Cambodia : 14, Syria : 14, Seychelles : 15, Senegal : 16, Libya : 16, Laos : 17, Sri Lanka : 19, Congo (Brazzaville) : 19, Tonga : 21, Liberia : 24, Chad : 25, Fiji : 26, Nepal : 27, Togo : 30, Nicaragua : 32, Madagascar : 37, Sudan : 38, Papua New Guinea : 38, Belize : 59, Egypt : 60, Algeria : 64, Burma : 65, Ghana : 72, Haiti : 74, Eswatini : 75, Guyana : 79, Rwanda : 83, Uganda : 88, Kenya : 92, Burundi : 94, Angola : 98, Congo (Kinshasa) : 125, Morocco : 125, Bangladesh : 127, Tanzania : 128, Nigeria : 135, Malawi : 148, Ethiopia : 248, Vietnam : 269, Namibia : 422, Cameroon : 462, Pakistan : 660, India : 4290 41 Countries have End Stage trend: (name : # of active cases)Sao Tome and Principe : 1, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines : 2, Somalia : 2, Timor-Leste : 2, Kiribati : 8, Mauritania : 12, Oman : 14, Equatorial Guinea : 20, Guinea : 28, Burkina Faso : 32, North Macedonia : 351, Nauru : 479, Samoa : 554, China : 2897, Taiwan* : 249634 -- SPIKING OF NEW CASE COUNTS --20 countries are currently experiencing spikes in new confirmed cases:Armenia, Barbados, Belgium, Brunei, Chile, Costa Rica, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mauritius, Portugal, Sweden, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Uzbekistan 20 countries experienced a spike in new confirmed cases 3 to 5 days ago: Argentina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, France, Korea - South, Lithuania, Mozambique, New Zealand, Panama, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates 47 countries experienced a spike in new confirmed cases 5 to 14 days ago: Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Congo (Kinshasa), Cyprus, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, Iran, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Malta, Mexico, Micronesia, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Nigeria, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Saint Lucia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Suriname, Thailand, Tunisia, US, Uruguay, Zambia, Zimbabwe 194 countries experienced a spike in new confirmed cases over 14 days ago: Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burma, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo (Kinshasa), Costa Rica, Cote d'Ivoire, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Estonia, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Fiji, Finland, France, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Korea - South, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Taiwan*, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Tuvalu, US, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela, Vietnam, West Bank and Gaza, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe Strongest spike in past two days was in US at 64,861 new cases.Strongest spike in past five days was in US at 64,861 new cases.Strongest spike in outbreak was 424 days ago in US at 1,354,505 new cases. Global Total Confirmed COVID-19 Case Rate of 8620.91 per 100,000Global Active Confirmed COVID-19 Case Rate of 37.24 per 100,000Global COVID-19 Mortality Rate of 87.69 per 100,000 21 countries with over 200 per 100,000 active cases.5 countries with over 500 per 100,000 active cases.3 countries with over 1,000 per 100,000 active cases.1 country with over 2,000 per 100,000 active cases.Nauru is worst at 4,354.54 per 100,000.
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Covid-19 cases per country snapshot
13-Apr-2020 at 14:19 CET
Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Obtained by web-scraping
Contains header on 1st row.
Columns:
On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.Trends represent the day-to-day rate of new cases with a focus on the most recent 10 to 14 days. Includes Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and U.S. Virgin Islands. Daily new case counts are volatile for many reasons and sometimes the trends reflect that volatility. Thus, we decided to include longer-term summaries here. County Trends as of 9 Mar 20230 (-0) in Emergent1135 (+51) in Spreading1664 (-63) in Epidemic230 (+10) in Controlled110 (+2) in End StageNotes: Many states now only report once per week, and FL only once every two weeks. On 3/7/2022 we adjusted the formula for active cases to reflect the Omicron Variant which is documented to cause lower rates of serious and severe illness. To produce these trends we analyze daily updates from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.For more information about COVID-19 trends, see our country level trends story map and the full methodology.Data Source: Johns Hopkins University CSSE US Cases by County dashboard and USAFacts for Utah County level Data.Feature layer generated from running the Join Features solution that is the basis for daily updates for the U.S. County COVID-19 Tends Story Map.
As of November 11, 2022, almost 96.8 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United States. The pandemic has impacted all 50 states, with vast numbers of cases recorded in California, Texas, and Florida.
The coronavirus in the U.S. The coronavirus hit the United States in mid-March 2020, and cases started to soar at an alarming rate. The country has performed a high number of COVID-19 tests, which is a necessary step to manage the outbreak, but new coronavirus cases in the U.S. have spiked several times since the pandemic began, most notably at the end of 2022. However, restrictions in many states have been eased as new cases have declined.
The origin of the coronavirus In December 2019, officials in Wuhan, China, were the first to report cases of pneumonia with an unknown cause. A new human coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2 – has since been discovered, and COVID-19 is the infectious disease it causes. All available evidence to date suggests that COVID-19 is a zoonotic disease, which means it can spread from animals to humans. The WHO says transmission is likely to have happened through an animal that is handled by humans. Researchers do not support the theory that the virus was developed in a laboratory.
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Data are generated from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) webpage concerning the situation of COVID-19 in the Europeean Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea). The webpage contains, per country, the total number of COVID-19 cases and deaths as well as the 14-day cumulative number of cases and deaths per 100,000 persons and the 14 day COVID-19 case notification rate per 100,000. The data are extracted daily and transposed in a CSV format. The data are collected and processed by the ECDC Epidemic Intelligence Team through the Early Warning and Response System (EWRS), The European Surveillance System (TESSy), the World Health Organization (WHO) and direct exchange with other international stakeholders for the EU/EEA countries.
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Contains available public data on COVID-19 through 2020-12-14. Each row/entry contains the number of new cases reported per day and per country.
https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
This is a dataset of the most highly populated city (if applicable) in a form easy to join with the COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 1) dataset. You can see how to use it in this kernel
There are four columns. The first two correspond to the columns from the original COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 1) dataset. The other two is the highest population density, at city level, for the given country/state. Note that some countries are very small and in those cases the population density reflects the entire country. Since the original dataset has a few cruise ships as well, I've added them there.
Thanks a lot to Kaggle for this competition that gave me the opportunity to look closely at some data and understand this problem better.
Summary: I believe that the square root of the population density should relate to the logistic growth factor of the SIR model. I think the SEIR model isn't applicable due to any intervention being too late for a fast-spreading virus like this, especially in places with dense populations.
After playing with the data provided in COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 1) (and everything else online or media) a bit, one thing becomes clear. They have nothing to do with epidemiology. They reflect sociopolitical characteristics of a country/state and, more specifically, the reactivity and attitude towards testing.
The testing method used (PCR tests) means that what we measure could potentially be a proxy for the number of people infected during the last 3 weeks, i.e the growth (with lag). It's not how many people have been infected and recovered. Antibody or serology tests would measure that, and by using them, we could go back to normality faster... but those will arrive too late. Way earlier, China will have experimentally shown that it's safe to go back to normal as soon as your number of newly infected per day is close to zero.
https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F197482%2F429e0fdd7f1ce86eba882857ac7a735e%2Fcovid-summary.png?generation=1585072438685236&alt=media" alt="">
My view, as a person living in NYC, about this virus, is that by the time governments react to media pressure, to lockdown or even test, it's too late. In dense areas, everyone susceptible has already amble opportunities to be infected. Especially for a virus with 5-14 days lag between infections and symptoms, a period during which hosts spread it all over on subway, the conditions are hopeless. Active populations have already been exposed, mostly asymptomatic and recovered. Sensitive/older populations are more self-isolated/careful in affluent societies (maybe this isn't the case in North Italy). As the virus finishes exploring the active population, it starts penetrating the more isolated ones. At this point in time, the first fatalities happen. Then testing starts. Then the media and the lockdown. Lockdown seems overly effective because it coincides with the tail of the disease spread. It helps slow down the virus exploring the long-tail of sensitive population, and we should all contribute by doing it, but it doesn't cause the end of the disease. If it did, then as soon as people were back in the streets (see China), there would be repeated outbreaks.
Smart politicians will test a lot because it will make their condition look worse. It helps them demand more resources. At the same time, they will have a low rate of fatalities due to large denominator. They can take credit for managing well a disproportionally major crisis - in contrast to people who didn't test.
We were lucky this time. We, Westerners, have woken up to the potential of a pandemic. I'm sure we will give further resources for prevention. Additionally, we will be more open-minded, helping politicians to have more direct responses. We will also require them to be more responsible in their messages and reactions.
https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Coronavirus infection is currently the most important health topic. It surely tested and continues to test to the fullest extent the healthcare systems around the world. Although big progress is made in handling this pandemic, a tremendous number of questions are needed to be answered. I hereby present to you the local Bulgarian COVID-19 dataset with some context. It could be used as a comparator because it stands out compared to other countries and deserves analysis.
Context for Bulgarian population: Population - 6 948 445 Median age - 44.7 years Aged >65 - 20.801 % Aged >70 - 13.272%
Summary of the results: - first pandemic wave was weak, probably because of the early state of emergency (5 days after the first confirmed case). Whether this was a good decision or it was too early and just postpone the inevitable is debatable. -healthcare system collapses (probably due to delayed measures) in the second and third waves which resulted in Bulgaria gaining the top ranks for mortality and morbidity tables worldwide and in the EU. - low percentage of vaccinated people results in a prolonged epidemic and delaying the lifting of the preventive measures.
Some of the important moments that should be considered when interpreting the data: 08.03.2020 - Bulgaria confirmed its first two cases. The government issued a nationwide ban on closed-door public events (first lockdown); 13.03.2020- after 16 reported cases in one day, Bulgaria declared a state of emergency for one month until 13.04.2020. Schools, shopping centres, cinemas, restaurants, and other places of business were closed. All sports events were suspended. Only supermarkets, food markets, pharmacies, banks, and gas stations remain open. 03.04.2020 - The National Assembly approved the government's proposal to extend the state of emergency by one month until 13.05.2020; 14.05.2020 - the national emergency was lifted, and in its place was declared a state of an emergency epidemic situation. Schools and daycares remain closed, as well as shopping centers and indoor restaurants; 18.05.2020 - Shopping malls and fitness centers opened; 01.06.2020 - Restaurants and gaming halls opened; 10.07.2020 - discos and bars are closed, the sports events are without an audience; 29.10.2020 - High school and college students are transitioning to online learning; 27.11.2020 - the whole education is online, restaurants, nightclubs, bars, and discos are closed (second lockdown 27.11 - 21.12); 05.12.2020 - the 14-day mortality rate is the highest in the world; 16.01.2021 - some of the students went back to school; 01.03.2021 - restaurants and casinos opened; 22.03.2021 - restaurants, shopping malls, fitness centers, and schools are closed (third lockdown for 10 days - 22.03 - 31.03); 19.04.2021 - children daycare facilities, fitness centers, and nightclubs are opened;
This dataset consists of 447 rows with 29 columns and covers the period 08.03.2020 - 28.05.2021. In the beginning, there are some missing values until the proper statistical report was established.
A publication proposal is sent to anyone who wishes to collaborate. Based on the results and the value of the findings and the relevance of the topic it is expected to publish: - in a local journal (guaranteed); - in a SCOPUS journal (highly probable); - in an IF journal (if the results are really insightful).
The topics could be, but not limited to: - descriptive analysis of the pandemic outbreak in the country; - prediction of the pandemic or the vaccination rate; - discussion about the numbers compared to other countries/world; - discussion about the government decisions; - estimating cut-off values for step-down or step-up of the restrictions.
If you find an error, have a question, or wish to make a suggestion, I encourage you to reach me.
SummaryMaryland facilities where at least one confirmed case of COVID-19 is present for the reporting period.DescriptionDeprecated as of November 17, 2021.The Outbreak-Associated Cases in Congregate Living data dashboard on coronavirus.maryland.gov was redesigned on 11/17/21 to align with other outbreak reporting. Visit MD COVID-19 Congregate Outbreaks to view Outbreak-Associated Cases in Congregate Living data as reported after 11/17/21.The MD COVID-19 - Number of Cases by Affected Congregate Facility data layer is a collection of nursing homes, assisted living facilities, group homes of 10 or more and state and local facilities where at least one positive COVID-19 test result has been reported for the reporting period. Data are reported to MDH by local health departments, the Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services and the Department of Juvenile Services. To appear on the list, facilities report at least one confirmed case of COVID-19 over the prior 14 days. Facilities are removed from the list when health officials determine 14 days have passed with no new cases and no tests pending. The list provides a point-in-time picture of COVID-19 case activity among these facilities. Numbers reported for each facility listed reflect totals ever reported for cases. Data are updated once weekly.COVID-19 is a disease caused by a respiratory virus first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. COVID-19 is a new virus that hasn't caused illness in humans before. Worldwide, COVID-19 has resulted in thousands of infections, causing illness and in some cases death. Cases have spread to countries throughout the world, with more cases reported daily. The Maryland Department of Health reports daily on COVID-19 cases by county.
SummaryThe number of cases interviewed who had a completed answer to the question asking if they had physically gone to work in the last 14 days during their covidLINK interviews.DescriptionMD COVID-19 - Contact Tracing Cases Reported Employment layer reflects the number of cases interviewed who had a completed answer to the question asking if they had physically gone to work in the last 14 days during their covidLINK interviews. Respondents may indicate more than one category of employment if they have multiple jobs. For a variety of reasons, some individuals choose not to answer particular questions during the course of their interview. Information about how to prevent and reduce COVID-19 transmission in businesses and workplaces — including for both employers and employees — is available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Note the following regarding select employment categories:Childcare/Education: Includes teachers, babysitters, school administrators, etc.Commercial Construction and Manufacturing: Includes poultry/meat processors, electricians, carpenters, HVAC workers, welders, contractors, paintersHealthcare: Includes home healthcare and administrative positions in a healthcare settingRestaurant/Food Service: Includes cooks, waitstaff, food delivery personnel, alcohol delivery services, etc.Retail, Essential Worker: Includes grocery and pharmacy workersRetail, Other: Includes all retail establishments that do not sell food or medicineTransportation: Includes positions related to transport of people or goodsOther, Non-Public-Facing: Includes workers that do not have direct interactions with the public, including warehouse workers, some office workers, some car mechanics, etc.Other, Public-Facing: Includes workers who have direct interactions with the public such as, but not limited to, administrative/front desk workers, home repair workers, lawncare workers, security guards, etc.Unknown: Indicates that the interviewer was unable to ascertain the employment category based on the information provided.Answers to interview questions do not provide strong evidence of cause and effect. Due to the nature of COVID-19 and the wide range of scenarios in which a person can become infected, most of the time it will not be possible to pinpoint exactly how and when a case became infected. Though a person may report employment at a particular location, that does not necessarily imply that transmission happened at that location.The covidLINK interview questionnaire is updated as necessary to capture relevant information related to case exposure and potential onward transmission. These revisions should be taken into consideration when evaluating trends in case responses over time.COVID-19 is a disease caused by a respiratory virus first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. COVID-19 is a new virus that hasn't caused illness in humans before. Worldwide, COVID-19 has resulted in thousands of infections, causing illness and in some cases death. Cases have spread to countries throughout the world, with more cases reported daily. The Maryland Department of Health reports daily on COVID-19 cases by county.
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The dashboard provides map visual timelapse about COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States and new and cumulatives cases, fatalities in the last 14 days in number of cases or fatalities and by 100 000 people. The dashboard displays also the vaccination in the number of doses and percent of population vaccinated. The data are visualized at county, state and country level. Case and mortality data is from The New York Times, vaccine data is from Covid Act Now, based on reports from state and local health agencies.
On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: World Health Organization (WHO)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.125529863/7/2022 - Adjusted the rate of active cases calculation in the U.S. to reflect the rates of serious and severe cases due nearly completely dominant Omicron variant.6/24/2020 - Expanded Case Rates discussion to include fix on 6/23 for calculating active cases.6/22/2020 - Added Executive Summary and Subsequent Outbreaks sectionsRevisions on 6/10/2020 based on updated CDC reporting. This affects the estimate of active cases by revising the average duration of cases with hospital stays downward from 30 days to 25 days. The result shifted 76 U.S. counties out of Epidemic to Spreading trend and no change for national level trends.Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Correction on 6/1/2020Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Executive SummaryCOVID-19 Trends is a methodology for characterizing the current trend for places during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Each day we assign one of five trends: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, or End Stage to geographic areas to geographic areas based on the number of new cases, the number of active cases, the total population, and an algorithm (described below) that contextualize the most recent fourteen days with the overall COVID-19 case history. Currently we analyze the countries of the world and the U.S. Counties. The purpose is to give policymakers, citizens, and analysts a fact-based data driven sense for the direction each place is currently going. When a place has the initial cases, they are assigned Emergent, and if that place controls the rate of new cases, they can move directly to Controlled, and even to End Stage in a short time. However, if the reporting or measures to curtail spread are not adequate and significant numbers of new cases continue, they are assigned to Spreading, and in cases where the spread is clearly uncontrolled, Epidemic trend.We analyze the data reported by Johns Hopkins University to produce the trends, and we report the rates of cases, spikes of new cases, the number of days since the last reported case, and number of deaths. We also make adjustments to the assignments based on population so rural areas are not assigned trends based solely on case rates, which can be quite high relative to local populations.Two key factors are not consistently known or available and should be taken into consideration with the assigned trend. First is the amount of resources, e.g., hospital beds, physicians, etc.that are currently available in each area. Second is the number of recoveries, which are often not tested or reported. On the latter, we provide a probable number of active cases based on CDC guidance for the typical duration of mild to severe cases.Reasons for undertaking this work in March of 2020:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-25 days + 5% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. On 3/17/2022, the U.S. calculation was adjusted to: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 6% from past 15-25 days + 3% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions If a new variant arrives and appears to cause higher rates of serious cases, we will roll back this adjustment. We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source