The child mortality rate in the United States, for children under the age of five, was 462.9 deaths per thousand births in 1800. This means that for every thousand babies born in 1800, over 46 percent did not make it to their fifth birthday. Over the course of the next 220 years, this number has dropped drastically, and the rate has dropped to its lowest point ever in 2020 where it is just seven deaths per thousand births. Although the child mortality rate has decreased greatly over this 220 year period, there were two occasions where it increased; in the 1870s, as a result of the fourth cholera pandemic, smallpox outbreaks, and yellow fever, and in the late 1910s, due to the Spanish Flu pandemic.

A global phenomenon, known as the demographic transition, has seen life expectancy from birth increase rapidly over the past two centuries. In pre-industrial societies, the average life expectancy was around 24 years, and it is believed that this was the case throughout most of history, and in all regions. The demographic transition then began in the industrial societies of Europe, North America, and the West Pacific around the turn of the 19th century, and life expectancy rose accordingly. Latin America was the next region to follow, before Africa and most Asian populations saw their life expectancy rise throughout the 20th century.

The child mortality rate in France, for children under the age of five, was 412 deaths per thousand births in 1800. This means that more than forty percent of all children born in 1800 did not make it to their fifth birthday. Child mortality remained high in the nineteenth century, before falling at a much faster rate throughout the 1900s. Despite falling consistently during the last 130 years, there were two occasions where child mortality actually increased, which can be attributed to both World Wars and the Spanish Flu Pandemic. In 2020, the child mortality rate in France is expected to be just four deaths per thousand births.

For most of the world, throughout most of human history, the average life expectancy from birth was around 24. This figure fluctuated greatly depending on the time or region, and was higher than 24 in most individual years, but factors such as pandemics, famines, and conflicts caused regular spikes in mortality and reduced life expectancy. Child mortality The most significant difference between historical mortality rates and modern figures is that child and infant mortality was so high in pre-industrial times; before the introduction of vaccination, water treatment, and other medical knowledge or technologies, women would have around seven children throughout their lifetime, but around half of these would not make it to adulthood. Accurate, historical figures for infant mortality are difficult to ascertain, as it was so prevalent, it took place in the home, and was rarely recorded in censuses; however, figures from this source suggest that the rate was around 300 deaths per 1,000 live births in some years, meaning that almost one in three infants did not make it to their first birthday in certain periods. For those who survived to adolescence, they could expect to live into their forties or fifties on average. Modern figures It was not until the eradication of plague and improvements in housing and infrastructure in recent centuries where life expectancy began to rise in some parts of Europe, before industrialization and medical advances led to the onset of the demographic transition across the world. Today, global life expectancy from birth is roughly three times higher than in pre-industrial times, at almost 73 years. It is higher still in more demographically and economically developed countries; life expectancy is over 82 years in the three European countries shown, and over 84 in Japan. For the least developed countries, mostly found in Sub-Saharan Africa, life expectancy from birth can be as low as 53 years.

The child mortality rate in Finland, for children under the age of five, was 420 deaths per thousand births in 1800. This means that for every thousand babies born in 1800, roughly 42 percent did not make it to their fifth birthday. Over the course of the next 220 years, this number has dropped drastically, and the rate has dropped to its lowest point ever in 2020 where it is just seven deaths per thousand births, which is the lowest of any country n the world. Since 1800, the child mortality rate in Finland has dropped gradually, particularly since the turn of the twentieth century, and the only time since 1900 where the mortality rate increased was between 1915 and 1920, as a result of the Spanish Flu pandemic that swept across the globe.

The child mortality rate in Austria, for children under the age of five, was 387 deaths per thousand births in 1800. This means that just under forty percent of all children born in 1860 did not make it to their fifth birthday. Child mortality increased to over forty percent for most of the nineteenth century, as the country became more industrialized and urbanized, which allowed diseases to spread much faster. From 1900 onwards, the child mortality rate in Austria dropped consistently until today, (apart from a small increase during the Second World War) and it is expected to fall to just four deaths per thousand births in 2020.

This chart shows global life expectancy, at birth, from the year 1800 to 2100.

The child mortality rate in Belgium, for children under the age of five, was 322 deaths per thousand births in 1800. This means that roughly one in every three children born in 1800 did not make it to their fifth birthday. Over the course of the next 220 years, this number has dropped drastically, particularly in the first half of the twentieth century, and the rate has dropped to its lowest point ever in 2020 where it is just three deaths per thousand births. The only point where the child mortality rate increased in Belgium since the twentieth century was immediately after the Second World War.

Variable description Life expectancy at birth is defined as the average number of years that a newborn could expect to live if he or she were to pass through life subject to the age-specific mortality rates of a given period.

Variable time span 1543 – 2019

Data published by James C. Riley (2005) – Estimates of Regional and Global Life Expectancy, 1800–2001. Issue Population and Development Review. Population and Development Review. Volume 31, Issue 3, pages 537–543, September 2005., Zijdeman, Richard; Ribeira da Silva, Filipa, 2015, "Life Expectancy at Birth (Total)", http://hdl.handle.net/10622/LKYT53, IISH Dataverse, V1, and UN Population Division (2019)

Dataset

This dataset was created by Amar Prakash Pandey

Released under Data files © Original Authors

Contents

It contains the following files:

AIDS estimated deaths (UNAIDS estimates) in Gabon was reported at 1800 in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Gabon - AIDS estimated deaths (UNAIDS estimates) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on September of 2025.

The child mortality rate in Sweden, for children under the age of five, was 381 deaths per thousand births in 1800. This means that approximately 38 percent of all children born in 1800 did not make it to their fifth birthday. Over the course of the next 220 years, this number has dropped drastically, particularly from 1880 onwards, and the rate has dropped to its lowest point ever in 2020 where it is just two deaths per thousand births, which is the lowest in the world.

Throughout most of history, average life expectancy from birth was fairly consistent across the globe, at around 24 years. A major contributor to this was high rates of infant and child mortality; those who survived into adulthood could expect to live to their 50s or 60s, yet pandemics, food instability, and conflict did cause regular spikes in mortality across the entire population. Gradually, from the 16th to 19th centuries, there was some growth in more developed societies, due to improvements in agriculture, infrastructure, and medical knowledge. However, the most significant change came with the introduction of vaccination and other medical advances in the 1800s, which saw a sharp decline in child mortality and the onset of the demographic transition. This phenomenon began in more developed countries in the 1800s, before spreading to Latin America, Asia, and (later) Africa in the 1900s. As the majority of the world's population lives in countries considered to be "less developed", this figure is much closer to the global average. However, today, there is a considerable difference in life expectancies across these countries, ranging from 84.7 years in Japan to 53 years in the Central African Republic.

During the nineteenth century, Bulgaria's child mortality rate fell from 370 deaths per thousand births in 1800 to 321 deaths per thousand births in 1900 (the steadiness of the decline suggests that the data is an average for the century). Bulgaria's child mortality rate then dropped at a faster rate until 1965, with the only increase coming in the 1940s, during the Second World War. Since the 1960s, Bulgaria's child mortality rate has been falling at a much slower rate, and there was even an increase in the 1990s, during a period of high unemployment and political instability that came with the end of communism. Since the year 2000, Bulgaria's child mortality rate has continued to fall, dropping from 19 deaths per thousand births to just seven in 2020.

The child mortality rate in the Netherlands, for children under the age of five, was 324 deaths per thousand births in 1800. This means that just under one third of all children born in 1860 did not make it to their fifth birthday. Child mortality reached its highest recorded level in the Netherlands in the late nineteenth century, as rapid industrialization led to increased urbanization, which in turn allowed diseases to spread much faster, although it did decrease from 1875 until today. The only times where the rate deviated were in the 1910s and 1940s, due to the Spanish Flu pandemic and the Second World War. By 2020, the child mortality rate of the Netherlands is expected to be just three deaths per thousand.

The child mortality rate in Afghanistan (for children under the age of five) was around 475 deaths per 1000 births during the course of 19th century. Given as a percentage, this means that 47.5% of children born would not make it to their 5th birthday. After 1950, the child morality rate dropped significantly due to considerable medical advancements, falling to 68 deaths per thousand in 2020. Despite this considerable decline in recent decades, Afghanistan still has one of the highest child mortality rates in the world. Afghanistan's infant mortality rate (among those aged below one year) in 2020 is 52 deaths per thousand births, meaning that the majority of child deaths occur during infancy.

The infant mortality rate in Italy, for children under the age of one year old, was 231 deaths per thousand births in 1865. This means that for all babies born in 1865, over 23 percent did not survive past their first birthday. Over the course of the next 155 years, the rate has dropped to its lowest point ever, amounting to three deaths per thousand births in the period between 2015 and 2020. Since the turn of the twentieth century, infant mortality in Italy has increased just two times, once in the 1910s as a result of the First World War and Spanish Flu pandemic, and then again in the 1940s due to the Second World War.

From the mid-19th century until today, life expectancy at birth in the United States has roughly doubled, from 39.4 years in 1850 to 79.6 years in 2025. It is estimated that life expectancy in the U.S. began its upward trajectory in the 1880s, largely driven by the decline in infant and child mortality through factors such as vaccination programs, antibiotics, and other healthcare advancements. Improved food security and access to clean water, as well as general increases in living standards (such as better housing, education, and increased safety) also contributed to a rise in life expectancy across all age brackets. There were notable dips in life expectancy; with an eight year drop during the American Civil War in the 1860s, a seven year drop during the Spanish Flu empidemic in 1918, and a 2.5 year drop during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were also notable plateaus (and minor decreases) not due to major historical events, such as that of the 2010s, which has been attributed to a combination of factors such as unhealthy lifestyles, poor access to healthcare, poverty, and increased suicide rates, among others. However, despite the rate of progress slowing since the 1950s, most decades do see a general increase in the long term, and current UN projections predict that life expectancy at birth in the U.S. will increase by another nine years before the end of the century.

The child mortality rate in Poland, for children under the age of five, was 369 deaths per thousand births in 1885. For every one thousand babies born in 1885, almost 37 percent did not survive past their fifth birthday. Over the course of the next 135 years, this number has dropped drastically, reaching its lowest point ever in the period between 2015 and 2020, at four deaths per thousand births. In Poland's recorded history, there were two periods where the child mortality rate increased, which were in the 1910s and 1930s, mostly due tot he Spanish Flu pandemic that swept across the world, and also the events of the Second World War.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.