Scan of 3 Federal Slave Census from June 16, 1860

There were almost 700 thousand slaves in the US in 1790, which equated to approximately 18 percent of the total population, or roughly one in every six people. By 1860, the final census taken before the American Civil War, there were four million slaves in the South, compared with less than 0.5 million free African Americans in all of the US. Of the 4.4 million African Americans in the US before the war, almost four million of these people were held as slaves; meaning that for all African Americans living in the US in 1860, there was an 89 percent* chance that they lived in slavery. A brief history Trans-Atlantic slavery began in the early sixteenth century, when the Portuguese and Spanish forcefully brought captured African slaves to the New World, in order to work for them. The British Empire introduced slavery to North America on a large scale, and the economy of the British colonies there depended on slave labor, particularly regarding cotton, sugar and tobacco output. In the seventeenth and eighteenth century the number of slaves being brought to the Americas increased exponentially, and at the time of American independence it was legal in all thirteen colonies. Although slavery became increasingly prohibited in the north, the number of slaves remained high during this time as they were simply relocated or sold from the north to the south. It is also important to remember that the children of slaves were also viewed as property, and (apart from some very rare cases) were born into a life of slavery. Abolition and the American Civil War In the years that followed independence, the Northern States began gradually prohibiting slavery, and it was officially abolished there by 1805, and the importation of slave labor was prohibited nationwide from 1808 (although both still existed in practice after this). Business owners in the Southern States however depended on slave labor in order to meet the demand of their rapidly expanding industries, and the issue of slavery continued to polarize American society in the decades to come. This culminated in the election of President Abraham Lincoln in 1860, who promised to prohibit slavery in the newly acquired territories to the west, leading to the American Civil War from 1861 to 1865. Although the Confederacy (south) were victorious in much of the early stages of the war, the strength in numbers of the northern states (including many free, black men), eventually resulted in a victory for the Union (north), and the nationwide abolishment of slavery with the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865. Legacy In total, an estimated twelve to thirteen million Africans were transported to the Americas as slaves, and this does not include the high number who did not survive the journey (which was as high as 23 percent in some years). In the 150 years since the abolishment of slavery in the US, the African-American community have continuously campaigned for equal rights and opportunities that were not afforded to them along with freedom. The most prominent themes have been the Civil Rights Movement, voter suppression, mass incarceration and the relationship between the police and the African-American community has taken the spotlight in recent years.

The issue of race and slavery was arguably the largest cause of the American Civil War, with the southern states seceding from the Union as the practice of slavery became increasingly threatened. From the graph we can see that roughly 16.5 percent of the entire US population at this time was black, and the vast majority of these were slaves. In 1860 there were almost 27 million white people, four and a half million black people, and less than one hundred thousand non-black or white people (mostly of Native/Latin American or East-Asian origin).

This statistic shows the number of black men and women in the US from 1820 until 1880. Slavery was legal in the Southern States of the US until 1865, when the Thirteenth Amendment was added to the US Constitution after the American Civil War. Until that time all of the slaves included in this statistic were registered as living in the South, whereas the majority of the free, black men and women lived in the Northern States. From the data we can see that, while the slave experience was very different for men and women, there was relatively little difference between their numbers in each respective category. While female slaves were more likely to serve in domestic roles, they were also more likely to be working in the lowest and unskilled jobs on plantations, whereas men were given more skilled and physically demanding roles. As slavery was abolished in 1870, all black people from this point were considered free in the census data. It is also worth noticing that in these years the difference in the number of men and women increased, most likely as a result of all the black male soldiers who fell fighting in the American Civil War.

This statistic shows the population of the United States in the final census year before the American Civil War, shown by race and gender. From the data we can see that there were almost 27 million white people, 4.5 million black people, and eighty thousand classed as 'other'. The proportions of men to women were different for each category, with roughly 700 thousand more white men than women, over 100 thousand more black women than men, and almost three times as many men than women in the 'other' category. The reason for the higher male numbers in the white and other categories is because men migrated to the US at a higher rate than women, while there is no concrete explanation for the statistic regarding black people.

This study presents 1860 data on population and farm production in 5,228 farms located in 405 major cotton-producing counties in the South. The data was compiled from the agriculture, slave, and population schedules of the 1860 United States manuscript Census. For each farm, variables describing farm land, machinery, crops, and livestock are included, as well as production figures for specific crops and types of livestock on the farm. The population variables tabulate the free and slave residents of each farm by sex, race, and age in five- or ten-year categories. This data set contains information of farm production and population residing on farms in the major cotton producing counties of the southern United States. Variables include: county code number; soil type in county; no. farms sampled in county; detailed commodity production of each farm, including acreage, value of farm and machinery, numbers of head of livestock, value of livestock, production of field crops, value of orchard products, wine production, value of market garden products, production of dairy products, production of 'textile' crops, value of home manufactures, value of animals slaughtered; numbers of farm residents by age categories, sex, and status, including free, slave, farm laborer, overseer, non-farm worker.

This dataset was produced in the 1990s by Myron Gutmann and others at the University of Texas to assess demographic change in European- and Mexican-origin populations in Texas from the mid-nineteenth to early-twentieth centuries. Most of the data come from manuscript records for six rural Texas counties - Angelina, DeWitt, Gillespie, Jack, Red River, and Webb - for the U.S. Censuses of 1850-1880 and 1900-1910, and tax records where available. Together, the populations of these counties reflect the cultural, ethnic, economic, and ecological diversity of rural Texas. Red River and Angelina Counties, in Eastern Texas, had largely native-born white and black populations and cotton economies. DeWitt County in Southeast Texas had the most diverse population, including European and Mexican immigrants as well as native-born white and black Americans, and its economy was divided between cotton and cattle. The population of Webb County, on the Mexican border, was almost entirely of Mexican origin, and economic activities included transportation services as well as cattle ranching. Gillespie County in Central Texas had a mostly European immigrant population and an economy devoted to cropping and livestock. Jack County in North-Central Texas was sparsely populated, mainly by native-born white cattle ranchers. These counties were selected to over-represent the European and Mexican immigrant populations. Slave schedules were not included, so there are no African Americans in the samples for 1850 or 1860. In some years and counties, the Census records were sub-sampled, using a letter-based sample with the family as the primary sampling unit (families were chosen if the surname of the head began with one of the sample letters for the county). In other counties and years, complete populations were transcribed from the Census microfilms. For details and sample sizes by county, see the County table in the Original P.I. Documentation section of the ICPSR Codebook, or see Gutmann, Myron P. and Kenneth H. Fliess, How to Study Southern Demography in the Nineteenth Century: Early Lessons of the Texas Demography Project (Austin: Texas Population Research Center Papers, no. 11.11, 1989).

Brazil conducted its first nationwide census in 1872, just 16 years before slavery's official abolition in 1888. Modern estimates place Brazil's total population in 1872 at approximately 10.3 million; the exclusion of non-white infants and indigenous populations from the census is likely the cause of this deficit. The 1872 census showed that non-whites made up the majority of Brazil's population at this time, at roughly 5.75 million, compared to the white population of 3.79 million. Of these 5.75 million, over 4.2 million were free, compared to 1.5 million living in slavery; this gives a ratio of almost three free non-whites for every one slave. To compare, in the United States in 1860, there were at least eight slaves for every one free person of color in the years leading up to slavery's nationwide abolition.

Analysis of ‘Waffles and divorce rates’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://www.kaggle.com/tylerbonnell/waffles on 13 February 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

Context

This dataset comes from the book Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan

Content

Location : State name

Loc : State abbreviation

Population : 2010 population in millions

MedianAgeMarriage: 2005-2010 median age at marriage

Marriage : 2009 marriage rate per 1000 adults

Marriage.SE : Standard error of rate

Divorce : 2009 divorce rate per 1000 adults

Divorce.SE : Standard error of rate

WaffleHouses : Number of diners

South : 1 indicates Southern State

Slaves1860 : Number of slaves in 1860 census

Population1860 : Population from 1860 census

PropSlaves1860 : Proportion of total population that were slaves in 1860

Acknowledgements

All credit should go to Richard McElreath: https://xcelab.net/rm/statistical-rethinking/

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

In the past four centuries, the population of the United States has grown from a recorded 350 people around the Jamestown colony of Virginia in 1610, to an estimated 331 million people in 2020. The pre-colonization populations of the indigenous peoples of the Americas have proven difficult for historians to estimate, as their numbers decreased rapidly following the introduction of European diseases (namely smallpox, plague and influenza). Native Americans were also omitted from most censuses conducted before the twentieth century, therefore the actual population of what we now know as the United States would have been much higher than the official census data from before 1800, but it is unclear by how much. Population growth in the colonies throughout the eighteenth century has primarily been attributed to migration from the British Isles and the Transatlantic slave trade; however it is also difficult to assert the ethnic-makeup of the population in these years as accurate migration records were not kept until after the 1820s, at which point the importation of slaves had also been illegalized. Nineteenth century In the year 1800, it is estimated that the population across the present-day United States was around six million people, with the population in the 16 admitted states numbering at 5.3 million. Migration to the United States began to happen on a large scale in the mid-nineteenth century, with the first major waves coming from Ireland, Britain and Germany. In some aspects, this wave of mass migration balanced out the demographic impacts of the American Civil War, which was the deadliest war in U.S. history with approximately 620 thousand fatalities between 1861 and 1865. The civil war also resulted in the emancipation of around four million slaves across the south; many of whose ancestors would take part in the Great Northern Migration in the early 1900s, which saw around six million black Americans migrate away from the south in one of the largest demographic shifts in U.S. history. By the end of the nineteenth century, improvements in transport technology and increasing economic opportunities saw migration to the United States increase further, particularly from southern and Eastern Europe, and in the first decade of the 1900s the number of migrants to the U.S. exceeded one million people in some years. Twentieth and twenty-first century The U.S. population has grown steadily throughout the past 120 years, reaching one hundred million in the 1910s, two hundred million in the 1960s, and three hundred million in 2007. In the past century, the U.S. established itself as a global superpower, with the world's largest economy (by nominal GDP) and most powerful military. Involvement in foreign wars has resulted in over 620,000 further U.S. fatalities since the Civil War, and migration fell drastically during the World Wars and Great Depression; however the population continuously grew in these years as the total fertility rate remained above two births per woman, and life expectancy increased (except during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918).

Since the Second World War, Latin America has replaced Europe as the most common point of origin for migrants, with Hispanic populations growing rapidly across the south and border states. Because of this, the proportion of non-Hispanic whites, which has been the most dominant ethnicity in the U.S. since records began, has dropped more rapidly in recent decades. Ethnic minorities also have a much higher birth rate than non-Hispanic whites, further contributing to this decline, and the share of non-Hispanic whites is expected to fall below fifty percent of the U.S. population by the mid-2000s. In 2020, the United States has the third-largest population in the world (after China and India), and the population is expected to reach four hundred million in the 2050s.