Overview
The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2022-23. The report provides commodity production and export forecasts.

It also includes articles and boxes that cover: Farm performance - broadacre and dairy farms; Australia's competitiveness in the fresh produce export market; Changes to China's grain policy; The Peru FTA; Market diversity of Australian wine exports; and, Trends in Australian cotton and horticulture production.

Key Issues

Commodity production forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent to $59 billion in 2017-18, reflecting an assumed return to average seasonal conditions, before increasing by 3 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The gross value of farm production nevertheless remains high. If realised, the forecast value of farm production in 2018-19 would be around 11 per cent higher than the average of $55 billion over the five years to 2016-17. ◦ The gross value of farm production is forecast to grow steadily over the outlook period to around $63 billion by 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars). Strong demand for livestock and some horticultural products, and improved productivity in cropping, are expected to support growth.

• The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 3 per cent to $29.6 billion in 2018-19, following a forecast increase of 2 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The value of lamb, wool and dairy production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 (as in 2017-18), driven by strong export demand (particularly from China). ◦ The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall slightly, as a decline in export prices offsets an increase in the volume of beef produced. Despite the fall in price, returns are well above the historical average and supportive of farm profitability.

• The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $31 billion in 2018-19, after a forecast decline of 11 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The decline in 2017-18 follows record production of wheat, barley and canola in 2016-17 due to very favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat, coarse grains and canola production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Wheat yields are assumed to improve (and to be around trend) following the frosts, above average temperatures and dry conditions during the winter of 2017. Area planted to coarse grains is forecast to increase due to strong global demand for feed and rotational constraints to planting pulses. Canola production is expected to increase as prices become comparatively favourable to the low coarse grain and falling pulse prices.

Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $48.5 billion in 2018-19, slightly higher than the forecast $47 billion in 2017-18. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.5 billion, after increasing by a forecast 5 per cent in 2017-18. • In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for canola (22 per cent), cotton (17 per cent), barley (12 per cent), lamb (9 per cent), wool (7 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), rock lobster (4 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (1 per cent). ◦ Forecast higher prices are a strong contributor to growth in export earnings. In Australian dollar terms, export prices of cotton (11 per cent), wheat (9 per cent), wool (4 per cent), barley (4 per cent), mutton (4 per cent), rock lobster (3 per cent), lamb (2 per cent) and cheese (1 per cent) are forecast to increase in 2018-19.

• Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (54 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal, cheese and mutton are forecast to be unchanged. ◦ The decline in export earnings for these commodities is driven by a fall in export prices. Prices for chickpeas (27 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent) are forecast to fall due to increasing global supply and competition. Prices for beef and veal (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent) and canola (1 per cent) are also forecast to decline.

• In 2022-23 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $49.6 billion (in 2017-18 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $46 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. ◦ The value of crop exports is projected to be $25.2 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 2.4 per cent higher than the average of $24.6 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $24.4 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 15 per cent higher than the average of $21 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms.

Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions.

• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019. From 2020 to 2023 economic growth is assumed to average 3.6 per cent. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3 per cent in 2018-19 and over the medium term to 2022-23. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the forecast average of US78 cents in 2017-18. It is assumed to depreciate further to US74 cents in 2019-20 and remain at that level over the outlook period.

• On the supply side, agricultural production is assumed to be consistent with average seasonal conditions in Australia and globally. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles.

Aluminum fell to 2,593.65 USD/T on July 15, 2025, down 0.10% from the previous day. Over the past month, Aluminum's price has risen 2.99%, and is up 5.37% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Aluminum - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The global market size of Commodity Chemicalsast is $XX million in 2018 with XX CAGR from 2014 to 2018, and it is expected to reach $XX million by the end of 2024 with a CAGR of XX% from 2019 to 2024.
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Overview The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in June 2018. Key…Show full descriptionOverview The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in June 2018. Key Issues • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to be relatively unchanged at $60 billion. • Dry conditions are affecting agricultural production in eastern Australia, but strong forecast production in Western Australia, rising grain prices, high livestock prices and a lower Australian dollar are providing support to farm incomes. • Export prices are forecast to increase by around 3% in 2018-19, driven by a decline in the global supply of grains and strong demand for meat products. • Downside risks to Australian agriculture include uncertainty around the duration of the drought in impacted areas, the timing and amount of rain in other regions, and possible disruption to world agricultural markets stemming from protectionist trade measures. Commodity production forecasts • The value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The decline is expected to be driven by a forecast decline in area planted in the eastern states. Drought conditions across eastern Australia restricted planting opportunities for crops, such as barley, canola and wheat. ◦ Higher forecast prices for canola, coarse grains, cotton and wheat are expected to mitigate the impact of lower crop volumes on the value of production. ◦ Wine grape and sugar production are forecast to rise as producing areas have been less affected by drought. The value of sugar production is nevertheless forecast to decline due to weak international prices. ◦ Horticultural production has increased following a warm winter, boosting production of a range of fruits and vegetables • The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ Drought in the eastern states has increased cattle and sheep turn-off, lifting meat production and leading to a forecast reduction in herd size. ◦ Dairy production is forecast to increase, as processors continue to offer relatively high milk prices. However, the production response is likely to be dampened by increasing feed and fodder costs. ◦ Wool production is forecast to be lower, constrained by lower flock numbers and poor grazing conditions. Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 5 per cent from $49 billion in 2017-18 • The decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of canola, coarse grains, pulses and wheat and increased domestic demand for grain. Agricultural export prices, measured by the index of unit export returns, are forecast to increase by 3% in 2018-19. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for canola (down 39 per cent), coarse grains (24 per cent), wheat (10 per cent), sugar (9 per cent), wool (2 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal and live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged. • Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for lamb (up 17 per cent), rice (14 per cent), mutton (13 per cent), cotton (9 per cent), cheese (6 per cent) and rock lobster (3 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3.0 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US74 cents in 2018-19, lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18. • On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be below average. ◦ Dry conditions are forecast to have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles in the eastern states. Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth. Boxes on agricultural issues Evolving EU biodiesel policies • Proposed changes to the EU renewable fuels policy could increase demand for Australia's canola exports in the short to medium term. • Since 2010-11 the European Union has been the largest export market for Australian canola. Most canola is imported to produce renewable transport fuel.

Kraft Pulp rose to 5,196 CNY/T on July 11, 2025, up 1.48% from the previous day. Over the past month, Kraft Pulp's price has fallen 0.95%, and is down 8.52% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Kraft Pulp.

Overview The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018. OverviewShow full descriptionOverview The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018. Overview • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion. • An increase in global economic growth and declines in some global crop supplies are forecast to support average farm export unit values. • Downside risks to the Australian agricultural sector are the prolonged dry spell in some parts of Australia and economic and trade factors facing Australia'!!s key export markets. Commodity production forecasts • The value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. The value of farm production is around 11 per cent higher than the 10 year average of $55 billion (in 2017-18 dollars). • The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The value of lamb and wool production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 because of strong forecast price growth. The volume of dairy production is expected to increase modestly, despite rising feed costs after consecutive years of low prices for grain and hay. The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall, as declining saleyard prices more-than offset increases in the volume of beef produced. • The value of crop production is forecast to remain unchanged at $31 billion in 2018-19. This follows an estimated decline of 8 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ In 2018-19 a change in the mix of grain crops is expected due to the combination of seasonal conditions, agronomic factors and relative prices. Delayed and inadequate autumn rainfall have reduced opportunities to plant canola and pulse crops. Prices of grains compared with prices of oilseeds and pulses are expected to add to incentives to plant barley and reduce canola and chickpea plantings. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat and coarse grains production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 2 per cent from $48 billion in 2017-18. • The net decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of coarse grains, pulses and canola and increased domestic demand for grain. The pace of growth of international prices for beef and veal and other livestock products is also expected to slow as competition increases. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (down 59 per cent), coarse grains (36 per cent), canola (18 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), mutton (6 per cent) and rock lobster (1 per cent). Export earnings for live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged. • Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for cotton (up 18 per cent), lamb (10 per cent), wool (9 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), beef and veal (2 per cent), dairy products (1 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18. • On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be slightly below average. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles. Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

Overview
The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018.

Overview • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion. • An increase in global economic growth and declines in some global crop supplies are forecast to support average farm export unit values. • Downside risks to the Australian agricultural sector are the prolonged dry spell in some parts of Australia and economic and trade factors facing Australia'!!s key export markets. Commodity production forecasts
• The value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. The value of farm production is around 11 per cent higher than the 10 year average of $55 billion (in 2017-18 dollars). • The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The value of lamb and wool production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 because of strong forecast price growth. The volume of dairy production is expected to increase modestly, despite rising feed costs after consecutive years of low prices for grain and hay. The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall, as declining saleyard prices more-than offset increases in the volume of beef produced.

• The value of crop production is forecast to remain unchanged at $31 billion in 2018-19. This follows an estimated decline of 8 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ In 2018-19 a change in the mix of grain crops is expected due to the combination of seasonal conditions, agronomic factors and relative prices. Delayed and inadequate autumn rainfall have reduced opportunities to plant canola and pulse crops. Prices of grains compared with prices of oilseeds and pulses are expected to add to incentives to plant barley and reduce canola and chickpea plantings. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat and coarse grains production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production.

Commodity export forecasts
• Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 2 per cent from $48 billion in 2017-18. • The net decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of coarse grains, pulses and canola and increased domestic demand for grain. The pace of growth of international prices for beef and veal and other livestock products is also expected to slow as competition increases. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (down 59 per cent), coarse grains (36 per cent), canola (18 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), mutton (6 per cent) and rock lobster (1 per cent). Export earnings for live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged.

• Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for cotton (up 18 per cent), lamb (10 per cent), wool (9 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), beef and veal (2 per cent), dairy products (1 per cent) and wine (1 per cent).

• Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18.

Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions.

• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18.

• On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be slightly below average. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles.

Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

Gallium fell to 1,675 CNY/Kg on July 15, 2025, down 1.47% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gallium's price has fallen 2.90%, and is down 29.47% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Gallium.

BOT Forecast: YoY: Non-fuel Commodity Prices data was reported at -0.300 % in 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 7.000 % for 2017. BOT Forecast: YoY: Non-fuel Commodity Prices data is updated yearly, averaging -1.850 % from Dec 2011 (Median) to 2018, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.700 % in 2011 and a record low of -17.500 % in 2015. BOT Forecast: YoY: Non-fuel Commodity Prices data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of Thailand. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Thailand – Table TH.P016: Crude Oil, Non Fuel, Fresh Food and Metal Price: Forecast: Bank of Thailand.

Orange Juice rose to 314 USd/Lbs on July 14, 2025, up 8.71% from the previous day. Over the past month, Orange Juice's price has risen 20.81%, but it is still 30.47% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Orange Juice - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

United States PPI: Industrial Commodities data was reported at 206.300 1982=100 in Sep 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 205.700 1982=100 for Aug 2018. United States PPI: Industrial Commodities data is updated monthly, averaging 31.100 1982=100 from Jan 1913 (Median) to Sep 2018, with 1269 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 209.500 1982=100 in Jul 2008 and a record low of 11.000 1982=100 in Mar 1915. United States PPI: Industrial Commodities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.I017: Producer Price Index: By Commodities.

Steel fell to 3,086 CNY/T on July 11, 2025, down 0.61% from the previous day. Over the past month, Steel's price has risen 5.22%, but it is still 6.46% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Steel - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

GSCI fell to 544.35 Index Points on July 15, 2025, down 0.26% from the previous day. Over the past month, GSCI's price has fallen 4.07%, and is down 3.52% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. GSCI Commodity Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Nickel fell to 14,981.25 USD/T on July 15, 2025, down 0.56% from the previous day. Over the past month, Nickel's price has fallen 0.56%, and is down 9.72% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Nickel - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Peru BCRP Forecast: Imports: Raw Materials data was reported at 18.804 USD bn in 2019. This records an increase from the previous number of 18.540 USD bn for 2018. Peru BCRP Forecast: Imports: Raw Materials data is updated yearly, averaging 15.055 USD bn from Dec 2002 (Median) to 2019, with 18 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 19.449 USD bn in 2012 and a record low of 3.796 USD bn in 2002. Peru BCRP Forecast: Imports: Raw Materials data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Reserve Bank of Peru. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Peru – Table PE.JA013: Imports: by Commodity: Forecast.

Wheat fell to 541.48 USd/Bu on July 14, 2025, down 0.65% from the previous day. Over the past month, Wheat's price has risen 0.93%, and is up 1.69% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Wheat - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Cobalt traded flat at 33,335 USD/T on July 10, 2025. Over the past month, Cobalt's price has remained flat, but it is still 22.78% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Cobalt - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Baltic Dry rose to 1,783 Index Points on July 14, 2025, up 7.22% from the previous day. Over the past month, Baltic Dry's price has fallen 9.72%, and is down 10.54% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Baltic Exchange Dry Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Copper fell to 5.45 USD/Lbs on July 14, 2025, down 1.52% from the previous day. Over the past month, Copper's price has risen 13.70%, and is up 20.47% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Copper - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

LME Index fell to 4,144 Index Points on July 14, 2025, down 0.55% from the previous day. Over the past month, LME Index's price has risen 0.29%, but it is still 1.17% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. LME Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.