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TwitterForecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2018 and 2019 with the addition of new data on productivity growth and quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.
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United States CA: saar: NNI: PI: Reinvested Earnings on US Direct Invt Abroad data was reported at -740.727 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 352.446 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States CA: saar: NNI: PI: Reinvested Earnings on US Direct Invt Abroad data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.000 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 352.446 USD bn in Dec 2017 and a record low of -740.727 USD bn in Mar 2018. United States CA: saar: NNI: PI: Reinvested Earnings on US Direct Invt Abroad data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB073: Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts: Total Economy: Current Account.
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United States Gross Value Added (GVA): saar data was reported at 19,931.717 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 19,699.332 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Gross Value Added (GVA): saar data is updated quarterly, averaging 5,305.278 USD bn from Mar 1959 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 237 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 19,931.717 USD bn in Mar 2018 and a record low of 517.130 USD bn in Mar 1959. United States Gross Value Added (GVA): saar data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB074: Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts: Total Economy and Sectors: Selected Aggregates.
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Historical dataset showing Spain economic growth by year from 1960 to 2018.
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TwitterThe Future of Business Survey is a new source of information on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Launched in February 2016, the monthly survey - a partnership between Facebook, OECD, and The World Bank - provides a timely pulse on the economic environment in which businesses operate and who those businesses are to help inform decision-making at all levels and to deliver insights that can help businesses grow. The Future of Business Survey provides a perspective from newer and long-standing digitalized businesses and provides a unique window into a new mobilized economy.
Policymakers, researchers and businesses share a common interest in the environment in which SMEs operate, as well their outlook on the future, not least because young and innovative SMEs in particular are often an important source of considerable economic and employment growth. Better insights and timely information about SMEs improve our understanding of economic trends, and can provide new insights that can further stimulate and help these businesses grow.
To help provide these insights, Facebook, OECD and The World Bank have collaborated to develop a monthly survey that attempts to improve our understanding of SMEs in a timely and forward-looking manner. The three organizations share a desire to create new ways to hear from businesses and help them succeed in the emerging digitally-connected economy. The shared goal is to help policymakers, researchers, and businesses better understand business sentiment, and to leverage a digital platform to provide a unique source of information to complement existing indicators.
With more businesses leveraging online tools each day, the survey provides a lens into a new mobilized, digital economy and, in particular, insights on the actors: a relatively unmeasured community worthy of deeper consideration and considerable policy interest.
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The study describes small and medium-sized enterprises.
The target population consists of SMEs that have an active Facebook business Page and include both newer and longer-standing businesses, spanning across a variety of sectors. With more businesses leveraging online tools each day, the survey provides a lens into a new mobilized, digital economy and, in particular, insights on the actors: a relatively unmeasured community worthy of deeper consideration and considerable policy interest.
Sample survey data [ssd]
Twice a year in over 97 countries, the Facebook Survey Team sends the Future of Business to admins and owners of Facebook-designated small business pages. When we share data from this survey, we anonymize responses to all survey questions and only share country-level data publicly. To achieve better representation of the broader small business population, we also weight our results based on known characteristics of the Facebook Page admin population.
A random sample of firms, representing the target population in each country, is selected to respond to the Future of Business Survey each month.
Internet [int]
The survey includes questions about perceptions of current and future economic activity, challenges, business characteristics and strategy. Custom modules include questions related to regulation, access to finance, digital payments, and digital skills. The full questionnaire is available for download.
Response rates to online surveys vary widely depending on a number of factors including survey length, region, strength of the relationship with invitees, incentive mechanisms, invite copy, interest of respondents in the topic and survey design.
Note: Response rates are calculated as the number of respondents who completed the survey divided by the total number of SMEs invited.
Any survey data is prone to several forms of error and biases that need to be considered to understand how closely the results reflect the intended population. In particular, the following components of the total survey error are noteworthy:
Sampling error is a natural characteristic of every survey based on samples and reflects the uncertainty in any survey result that is attributable to the fact that not the whole population is surveyed.
Other factors beyond sampling error that contribute to such potential differences are frame or coverage error (sampling frame of page owners does not include all relevant businesses but also may include individuals that don't represent businesses), and nonresponse error.
Note that the sample is meant to reflect the population of businesses on Facebook, not the population of small businesses in general. This group of digitized SMEs is itself a community worthy of deeper consideration and of considerable policy interest. However, care should be taken when extrapolating to the population of SMEs in general. Moreover, future work should evaluate the external validity of the sample. Particularly, respondents should be compared to the broader population of SMEs on Facebook, and the economy as a whole.
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United States GDPS: saar: MO: Pvt: Other Services excl Gov't data was reported at 7.490 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 7.366 USD bn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: MO: Pvt: Other Services excl Gov't data is updated quarterly, averaging 6.181 USD bn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.490 USD bn in Jun 2018 and a record low of 5.857 USD bn in Mar 2005. United States GDPS: saar: MO: Pvt: Other Services excl Gov't data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A118: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Plains Region: Current Price: saar.
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TwitterOver the period observed, the Gross Value Added (GVA) in Poland has fluctuated. In 2020, the rate declined by two percent due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, the GVA increased by *** percent y/y.
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TwitterWeekly Economic Calendar shows future release dates of key economic data and publications used by NSW Treasury for monitoring and analysis.
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United States GDP: VA: PI: Pvt: FR: RL: Real Estate data was reported at 115.106 2012=100 in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 111.797 2012=100 for 2016. United States GDP: VA: PI: Pvt: FR: RL: Real Estate data is updated yearly, averaging 95.641 2012=100 from Dec 1997 (Median) to 2017, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 115.106 2012=100 in 2017 and a record low of 72.858 2012=100 in 1997. United States GDP: VA: PI: Pvt: FR: RL: Real Estate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A089: NIPA 2018: GDP by Industry: Value Added: Price Index: Annual.
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United States GDPS: saar: MN: Government data was reported at 35.715 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 35.562 USD bn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: MN: Government data is updated quarterly, averaging 29.885 USD bn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 35.715 USD bn in Jun 2018 and a record low of 24.933 USD bn in Mar 2005. United States GDPS: saar: MN: Government data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A118: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Plains Region: Current Price: saar.
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United States GDPS: saar: FL: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data was reported at 16.515 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 16.089 USD bn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: FL: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data is updated quarterly, averaging 13.244 USD bn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.515 USD bn in Jun 2018 and a record low of 9.382 USD bn in Mar 2005. United States GDPS: saar: FL: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.A066: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Southeast Region: Current Price: saar.
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United States GDP: II: QI: PI: IF: Publishing Industries: Incl Software data was reported at 98.117 2012=100 in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 89.204 2012=100 for 2016. United States GDP: II: QI: PI: IF: Publishing Industries: Incl Software data is updated yearly, averaging 124.604 2012=100 from Dec 1997 (Median) to 2017, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 176.406 2012=100 in 2001 and a record low of 89.204 2012=100 in 2016. United States GDP: II: QI: PI: IF: Publishing Industries: Incl Software data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A103: NIPA 2018: GDP by Industry: Intermediate Inputs: Quantity Index: Annual.
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United States GDPS: saar: OK: Government data was reported at 30.537 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 30.377 USD bn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: OK: Government data is updated quarterly, averaging 26.704 USD bn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 30.537 USD bn in Jun 2018 and a record low of 19.755 USD bn in Mar 2005. United States GDPS: saar: OK: Government data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A124: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Southwest Region: Current Price: saar.
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United States GDPS: saar: UT: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data was reported at 1.566 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.565 USD bn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: UT: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data is updated quarterly, averaging 964.950 USD mn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.566 USD bn in Jun 2018 and a record low of 610.200 USD mn in Jun 2005. United States GDPS: saar: UT: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A120: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Rocky Mountain Region: Current Price: saar.
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United States GDPS: saar: NM: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data was reported at 685.700 USD mn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 668.100 USD mn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: NM: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data is updated quarterly, averaging 647.600 USD mn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 704.300 USD mn in Dec 2014 and a record low of 481.300 USD mn in Mar 2006. United States GDPS: saar: NM: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A124: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Southwest Region: Current Price: saar.
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United States GDPS: saar: NE: Pvt: Wholesale Trade data was reported at 7.410 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 7.278 USD bn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: NE: Pvt: Wholesale Trade data is updated quarterly, averaging 6.000 USD bn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.626 USD bn in Dec 2015 and a record low of 4.329 USD bn in Dec 2005. United States GDPS: saar: NE: Pvt: Wholesale Trade data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A118: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Plains Region: Current Price: saar.
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United States GDPS: saar: SD: Pvt: Prof, Scientific & Tech Services data was reported at 1.610 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.571 USD bn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: SD: Pvt: Prof, Scientific & Tech Services data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.254 USD bn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.610 USD bn in Jun 2018 and a record low of 747.700 USD mn in Mar 2005. United States GDPS: saar: SD: Pvt: Prof, Scientific & Tech Services data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A118: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Plains Region: Current Price: saar.
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United States GDP: II: Pvt: Retail Trade: Food & Beverage data was reported at 88.115 USD bn in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 86.130 USD bn for 2016. United States GDP: II: Pvt: Retail Trade: Food & Beverage data is updated yearly, averaging 60.111 USD bn from Dec 1997 (Median) to 2017, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 88.115 USD bn in 2017 and a record low of 35.253 USD bn in 1998. United States GDP: II: Pvt: Retail Trade: Food & Beverage data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A099: NIPA 2018: GDP by Industry: Intermediate Inputs: Current Price: Annual.
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United States GDPS: saar: FL: Pvt: Educational Services data was reported at 10.725 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 10.674 USD bn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: FL: Pvt: Educational Services data is updated quarterly, averaging 9.312 USD bn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.725 USD bn in Jun 2018 and a record low of 5.441 USD bn in Mar 2005. United States GDPS: saar: FL: Pvt: Educational Services data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A122: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Southeast Region: Current Price: saar.
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United States GDPS: saar: WA: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data was reported at 4.583 USD bn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 4.467 USD bn for Mar 2018. United States GDPS: saar: WA: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.361 USD bn from Mar 2005 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.583 USD bn in Jun 2018 and a record low of 2.342 USD bn in Sep 2005. United States GDPS: saar: WA: Pvt: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.A110: NIPA 2018: GDP by State: Far West Region: Current Price: saar.
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TwitterForecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2018 and 2019 with the addition of new data on productivity growth and quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.