In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to Jan 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2025-03-24 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

At the end of 2023, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was 3.96 percent. The highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield (BAA) from Jan 1919 to Feb 2025 about Baa, bonds, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS20) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about 20-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-20 about maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, 5-year, rate, and USA.

Corp Bond: ADTV: HY: CCC: >= 1,000,000 and < 5,000,000 data was reported at 584.003 USD mn in Dec 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 644.941 USD mn for Sep 2024. Corp Bond: ADTV: HY: CCC: >= 1,000,000 and < 5,000,000 data is updated quarterly, averaging 644.941 USD mn from Jun 2019 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 23 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.026 USD bn in Mar 2020 and a record low of 525.985 USD mn in Sep 2023. Corp Bond: ADTV: HY: CCC: >= 1,000,000 and < 5,000,000 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc.. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.Z031: US Corporate Bond Average Daily Trading Volume: High Yield.

Germany 10Y Bond Yield was 2.79 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

India 10Y Bond Yield was 6.60 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

United States Corp Bond: ADTV: HY: C: >= 5,000,000 < 10,000,000 data was reported at 12.142 USD mn in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 10.715 USD mn for Sep 2024. United States Corp Bond: ADTV: HY: C: >= 5,000,000 < 10,000,000 data is updated quarterly, averaging 6.110 USD mn from Jun 2019 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 23 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 33.586 USD mn in Jun 2019 and a record low of 1.015 USD mn in Dec 2023. United States Corp Bond: ADTV: HY: C: >= 5,000,000 < 10,000,000 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc.. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.Z031: US Corporate Bond Average Daily Trading Volume: High Yield.

Australia 10Y Bond Yield was 4.51 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

In 2024, the average yield on 10-year government bonds in Japan was 0.9 percent. In 2019, the yield on 10-year government bonds issued by the Japanese government turned negative for the second time since 1995.

US 5 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.09 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 5 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

The average yearly yield of UK 10-year government bonds has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2023. Starting at nearly 12 percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of 0.37 percent in 2020. After 2020, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.

Vietnam 10Y Bond Yield was 3.08 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Vietnam 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Key information about Sri Lanka Short Term Government Bond Yield

• Sri Lanka Short Term Government Bond Yield: Month End: Sri Lanka: 2 Years was reported at 13.83 % pa in Jan 2024, compared with 13.87 % pa in the previous month.
• Sri Lanka Short Term Government Bond Yield data is updated monthly, available from Jan 2003 to Jan 2024.
• The data reached an all-time high of 33.01 % pa in Dec 2022 and a record low of 5.65 % pa in Sep 2020.
• Short Term Government Bond Yield is reported by CEIC Data.

The monthly average yield on five, ten, and twenty-year nominal zero coupon British Government securities in the United Kingdom (UK) have all seen a continued decrease from December 2019 to July 2020. January 2021 saw a slight increase, progressing to October 2022 when yields reached a new high. At the end of December 2024, the monthly average yield of 20-year British Government Securities stood at 4.65 percent.