Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2020 and 2021.
By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.
Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting the future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.
Leisure and industry are forecasted to see decreases of over ten percent in their added value, making them the Netherlands' hardest hit industries of COVID-19 in 2020. This according to calculations made by economists from Dutch bank ABN AMRO. Unlike similar predictions from Rabobank, this source mentions the effects of the coronavirus on real estate and construction. Construction was expected to see a hit early on, whereas the housing market would see an effect only in 2021.
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Leading Economic Index Kazakhstan increased 5 percent in September of 2021 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - Kazakhstan Leading Economic Index- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Zew Economic Sentiment Index in Italy increased to 59.70 in March from 56.80 in February of 2021. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Italy Zew Economic Sentiment Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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Leading Economic Index Kyrgyzstan increased 0.10 percent in September of 2021 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - Kyrgyzstan Leading Economic Index- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Venezuela was worth 111.81 billion US dollars in 2021, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of Venezuela represents 0.11 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides - Venezuela GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Ref. Year = 2021: Real Gross Domestic Product: Per Capita: PPP: USD data was reported at 77,951.567 USD in 2026. This records an increase from the previous number of 76,839.478 USD for 2025. Ref. Year = 2021: Real Gross Domestic Product: Per Capita: PPP: USD data is updated yearly, averaging 51,550.101 USD from Dec 1970 (Median) to 2026, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 77,951.567 USD in 2026 and a record low of 28,551.508 USD in 1970. Ref. Year = 2021: Real Gross Domestic Product: Per Capita: PPP: USD data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.OECD.EO: GDP: Per Capita: Forecast: OECD Member: Annual.
The NextGenerationEU economic stimulus plan is set to be implemented according to each European Union member state's national recovery & resilience plan between 2021 and 2026. The stimulus effect which this will have varies across the different member states, with those states which are set to receive a relatively large stimulus package compared with their GDP experiencing a greater boost to growth than others, according to GDP forecasts.
Countries such as Greece, Bulgaria, and Croatia are set to experience as much as three percent additional GDP growth over the target years for the NextGenEU programs. On the other hand, countries such as Sweden, the Netherlands, and Austria, who will receive relatively smaller packages, will experience additional GDP growth of less than one percent per year, mostly caused by spillovers from other countries' plans. While the packages are to be dispersed between 2021 and 2026, the effect on GDP growth in many countries is set to be long-lasting, with growth being boosted into the 2030s.
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Peru: Economic growth forecast: The latest value from 2030 is 2.5 percent, a decline from 2.51 percent in 2029. In comparison, the world average is 3.25 percent, based on data from 182 countries. Historically, the average for Peru from 1980 to 2030 is 3.09 percent. The minimum value, -13.42 percent, was reached in 1989 while the maximum of 13.36 percent was recorded in 2021.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States was worth 29184.89 billion US dollars in 2024, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of the United States represents 27.49 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides - United States GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Nicaragua: Economic growth forecast: The latest value from 2030 is 3.5 percent, unchanged from 3.5 percent in 2029. In comparison, the world average is 3.25 percent, based on data from 182 countries. Historically, the average for Nicaragua from 1980 to 2030 is 2.5 percent. The minimum value, -12.4 percent, was reached in 1988 while the maximum of 10.45 percent was recorded in 2021.
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Moldova: Economic growth forecast: The latest value from 2030 is 5.03 percent, unchanged from 5.03 percent in 2029. In comparison, the world average is 3.25 percent, based on data from 182 countries. Historically, the average for Moldova from 1993 to 2030 is 1.78 percent. The minimum value, -30.9 percent, was reached in 1994 while the maximum of 13.9 percent was recorded in 2021.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Russia was worth 2173.84 billion US dollars in 2024, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of Russia represents 2.05 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia GDP - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
The GDP of 2025 is estimated at *** billion euros, while the GDP in 2024 was *** billion euros. The gross domestic product is forecasted to continue to grow to an estimate of *** billion euros as of 2027.
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United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 4.000 % in Dec 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 4.000 % for Sep 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.200 % from Sep 2019 to Dec 2021, with 5 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.000 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 4.000 % in Dec 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G033: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.
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United States Competitors Exports Price Index: Goods and Services data was reported at 1.045 Index, 2021 in Dec 2026. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.039 Index, 2021 for Sep 2026. United States Competitors Exports Price Index: Goods and Services data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.757 Index, 2021 from Mar 1975 (Median) to Dec 2026, with 208 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.091 Index, 2021 in Jun 2011 and a record low of 0.450 Index, 2021 in Sep 1975. United States Competitors Exports Price Index: Goods and Services data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.OECD.EO: Exports and Imports Price Index: Forecast: OECD Member: Quarterly.
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Economic Activity Index in China decreased to 50.80 points in October from 51.70 points in September of 2021. This dataset provides - China Economic Activity Index- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .
Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2020 and 2021.