By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.
United States banking professionals believed in Q2 2022 that a Fed overcorrection was a probable cause for a recession. ** percent of the respondents believed that the too fast and too highly increasing Fed rates would result in an economic recession. ** percent of the respondents predicted that a recession would occur because of supply chain problems, while **** percent mentioned the conflict in Eastern Europe as the main cause for a possible recession.
The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.
Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2022 and 2023.
According to a survey carried out among banking professionals in the third quarter of 2022, more than half of the bank leaders believed that the U.S. economy was already in a recession or would be by the end of 2022. ** percent of the respondents expected a recession in the first half of 2023, while ** percent predicted a recession in the second half of 2023.
The UK economy grew by 0.4 percent in May 2025 after shrinking by 0.1 percent in May. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 4.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.
Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany contracted 0.10 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
The economy of Sweden experienced a recession in 2020, following the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. According to a forecast from December 2022, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Sweden then increased by over five percent in 2021. However, growth was negative in 2023 as a result of the high inflation rates.
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According to Cognitive Market Research, the market for well-completion equipment and services is expected to reach USD 10.9 billion in 2022 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.50% from 2023 to 2030. How are the Key Trends Affecting the Well Completion Equipment and Services Market?
Rise in Demand for Oil & Gas to Drive Market
The energy demand has risen quickly during the last few decades globally. As a result, more oil and gas wells have been explored in various places of the world. The consumption of energy sources, including oil and gas, renewable energy, and nuclear energy, has significantly increased due to rising living standards and the world's population growth.
Global energy usage is predicted to be 580 million terajoules per year. This equates to 580 million trillion joules or approximately 13865 million tonnes of oil equivalent. (Mtoe).
(Source:www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/climate-change/energy/global-energy-consumption)
Additionally, because most nations are refocusing their attention on lowering carbon emissions and increasing their reliance on fossil fuels, the demand for natural gas is anticipated to boost the need for gas exploration globally during the upcoming forecast period. The demand for well-completion services and equipment across various gas rig locations is favorably impacted by the rising energy consumption in the world and the rising number of gas rig explorations, propelling the market internationally.
The Challenges Restraining Growth of the Well Completion Equipment and Services Market
Fluctuations in Foreign Currencies Continue its Influence to Impede Market Growth
The global economic downturn and rising property costs in industrialized economies substantially impacted the market in previous years. Thus, the market is still recovering from the recession and controlling inflation rates in developed economies. However, the ongoing changes in currency exchange rates continue to reduce market participants' profit margins. Additionally, the global economic environment impacts the extraction of metal needed to make oilfield equipment, which will restrain market expansion in the ensuing years. According to predictions, the industrialization and growth of the oil and gas industry will be propelled by fast-rising economies in the next years, balancing these price considerations and providing stable profit margins for market participants.
Impact of COVID–19 on the Well Completion Services and Equipment Market
The global market for well-completion equipment and services is anticipated to slow down during the next few years due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdown measures undertaken by various governments have caused factory closures in several towns and provinces worldwide, prompting forecasts of a dramatic slowdown in the output of everything from the oil and gas industry to the industrial sector. The recent decrease in oil exploration operations is one of the primary factors projected to impact the market well-completion equipment and services adversely. Moreover, once production activities are suspended, businesses must deal with lost revenues and damaged supply chains. Introduction of Well Completion Equipment and Services
"Well-completion equipment and services" relates to wellbore consultancy, architectural design, and downhole equipment for oil and gas wells in offshore and onshore areas. They cover whole completion procedures like operating the production tube, establishing the downhole tools, and carrying out numerous additional operations to get well ready for use. Due to the rising need for global oil and gas exploration, the market for well-completion equipment and services is projected to expand. The installation of machinery to extract crude oil from the earth's crust to meet the demand for oil and gas globally is made possible by well-completion tools and services. Another factor that is predicted to support market expansion is increased investment in various exploration and production activities. However, the challenges limiting the growth of the global market for well-completion equipment and services are the inability to improve the separate areas within productive zones and block off gas or water zones.
For instance, in 2021, the United States petroleum consumption will average about 19.78 million barrels per day (b/d), including roughly a million b/d of bi...
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Gross National Product in Japan increased to 592718 JPY Billion in the second quarter of 2025 from 591122.40 JPY Billion in the first quarter of 2025. This dataset provides - Japan Gross National Income - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Australia expanded 0.20 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Australia GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada expanded 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Canada GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India expanded 7.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - India GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
In most years since 1980, global GDP growth has been relatively consistent, generally fluctuating between two and five percent growth from year to year. The most notable exceptions to this were during the Great Recession in 2009, and again in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic, where the global economy actually shrank in both of these years. As the world economy continues to deal with the economic impact of the pandemic, as well as the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the future remains uncertain, however current estimates suggest that annual growth will return to steady figures of around 3 percent in 2029.
Worldwide car sales grew to around ** million automobiles in 2024, up from around **** million units in 2023. Throughout 2020 and 2021, the sector experienced a downward trend on the back of a slowing global economy, while COVID-19 and the Russian war on Ukraine contributed to shortages in the automotive semiconductor industry and further supply chain disruptions in 2022. Despite these challenges, 2023 and 2024 sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels and are forecast to keep rising through 2025. Covid-19 hits car demand It had been estimated pre-pandemic that international car sales were on track to reach ** million. While 2023 sales are still far away from that goal, this was the first year were car sales exceeded pre-pandemic values. The automotive market faced various challenges in 2023, including supply shortages, automotive layoffs, and strikes in North America. However, despite these hurdles, the North American market was among the fastest-growing regions in 2024, along with Eastern Europe and Asia, as auto sales in these regions increased year-on-year. Chinese market recovers After years of double-digit growth, China's economy began to lose steam in 2022, and recovery has been slow through 2023. China was the largest automobile market based on sales with around **** million units in 2023. However, monthly car sales in China were in free-fall in April 2022 partly due to shortages, fears over a looming recession, and the country grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic. By June of that same year, monthly sales in China were closer to those recorded in 2021.
According to a poll conducted at the end of 2022, Americans were feeling quite pessimistic about the coming year. 90 percent of Americans felt negatively about the prospect of political conflict in 2023.
The Economy 2022 was a difficult year for many Americans, as it was for many around the world. After a year of high inflation, record fuel prices, and decreased financial security, the country greeted 2023 with high rates of skepticism and caution. Although the U.S. economy itself has experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic recession compared with other major economies, a sustained decline in consumer spending power thanks to wage growth not keeping pace with inflation has everyday Americans feeling the pinch.
U.S. political landscape The political scene in the U.S. also had a tumultuous few years in the lead up to 2023. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States in 2016 left many voters reeling and the country more divided than ever. The beginning of 2021 was market by the January 6th attack on the Capitol, as well as the inauguration of Joe Biden. Additionally, the country continued to grapple with a politicized response to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions. 2022 began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ushering in the beginning of a global fuel and inflation crisis. In the midst of hardening economic conditions, the Supreme Court overturned its ruling on Roe v. Wade, returning the power to decide abortion restrictions to state legislatures.
The 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans win enough seats to take back control of the House of Representatives, but saw the GOP ultimately underperform compared to predictions at the time. The first day of the 2023 congressional term was marked by the inability of the Republican Party to unify itself behind one candidate for Speaker of the House, leading to a once in a century multi-round of Speaker elections. With new members of the House not able to be sworn in until a Speaker is elected, 2023 had a difficult start.
As of 2022, the real GDP growth rate in Africa was estimated at 3.7 percent, decreasing compared to the previous year when it stood at 4.8 percent. Africa's real GDP is projected to keep a stable and constant growth trend between 2023 and 2027.
Negative impact of COVID-19
Starting in 2020, the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) caused economic stagnation and recession in most world regions. Economies on the African continent were also negatively affected, as the health crisis determined disruptions across all economic sectors. In 2020, Africa’s real GDP dropped to minus 1.8 percent, an exceptional negative growth rate registered on the continent. Southern Africa was the most affected region, followed by Central and Western Africa, respectively.
Forecast economic growth in Africa
In 2021 and 2022, Africa’s economy showed signs of recovery after the COVID-19 crisis. Growth was expected to continue in the following years, with the total GDP increasing from around three trillion U.S. dollars in 2020 to four trillion U.S. dollars in 2027. The African economy was set to grow at a rapid pace, especially compared to other world regions. By 2027, Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP is estimated to record a growth rate of over four percent, while the European Union’s economy would expand by less than two percent.
The statistic shows the growth rate of Australia’s real GDP from 2020 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, GDP in Australia grew by about 1.04 percent on the previous year.The recession-proof land down underGDP is one of the primary indicators used to gauge the state and health of a country’s economy. It is the total market value of all final goods and services that have been produced within a country in a given period of time, usually a year. GDP figures allow us to understand a country’s economy in a clear way. Real GDP, in a similar vein, is also a very useful indicator; this is a measurement that takes prices changes (inflation and deflation) into account, therefore acting as a key indicator for economic growth.The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Australia has, for sometime, been able to get a steady foothold in the somewhat shaky post-recession world, shaky, but far from catastrophic. The annual growth rate between the 2008 and 2009 financial years, for example, a time at which the world was brought to its proverbial knees, saw growth rates down under reach to 2.49 and 1.37 percent respectively on the previous years, whereas the GDP growth rate in the United States plummeted well into the minus zone. Australia, like all other capitalist nations, is at the mercy of international markets, and when the world economy takes a hit, it would be foolish to suggest it could emerge fully unscathed. However, Australia has earned some much deserved praise and attention owing to the fact that it has managed to remain recession-free for the past twenty years. This could be thanks to its abundance of raw materials, the Australian mining boom, the fact the recession came at a time of high commodity prices and, maybe most importantly, that just under a third of its exports go to China.
The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The gross domestic product of the United States in 2024 amounted to around 29.18 trillion U.S. dollars. The United States and the economy The United States’ economy is by far the largest in the world; a status which can be determined by several key factors, one being gross domestic product: A look at the GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries shows a significant difference between US GDP and the GDP of China, the runner-up in the ranking, as well as the followers Japan, Germany and France. Interestingly, it is assumed that China will have surpassed the States in terms of GDP by 2030, but for now, the United States is among the leading countries in almost all other relevant rankings and statistics, trade and employment for example. See the U.S. GDP growth rate here. Just like in other countries, the American economy suffered a severe setback when the economic crisis occurred in 2008. The American economy entered a recession caused by the collapsing real estate market and increasing unemployment. Despite this, the standard of living is considered quite high; life expectancy in the United States has been continually increasing slightly over the past decade, the unemployment rate in the United States has been steadily recovering and decreasing since the crisis, and the Big Mac Index, which represents the global prices for a Big Mac, a popular indicator for the purchasing power of an economy, shows that the United States’ purchasing power in particular is only slightly lower than that of the euro area.
By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.