While the standard image of the nuclear family with two parents and 2.5 children has persisted in the American imagination, the number of births in the U.S. has steadily been decreasing since 1990, with about 3.6 million babies born in 2023. In 1990, this figure was 4.16 million. Birth and replacement rates A country’s birth rate is defined as the number of live births per 1,000 inhabitants, and it is this particularly important number that has been decreasing over the past few decades. The declining birth rate is not solely an American problem, with EU member states showing comparable rates to the U.S. Additionally, each country has what is called a “replacement rate.” The replacement rate is the rate of fertility needed to keep a population stable when compared with the death rate. In the U.S., the fertility rate needed to keep the population stable is around 2.1 children per woman, but this figure was at 1.67 in 2022. Falling birth rates Currently, there is much discussion as to what exactly is causing the birth rate to decrease in the United States. There seem to be several factors in play, including longer life expectancies, financial concerns (such as the economic crisis of 2008), and an increased focus on careers, all of which are causing people to wait longer to start a family. How international governments will handle falling populations remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the declining birth rate is a multifaceted problem without an easy solution.

Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2023, there were 10.7 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value recently. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has been declining over the last few years. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

Forecast: Live Births with a Low Birth Weight in the US 2022 - 2026 Discover more data with ReportLinker!

In 2023, the crude birth rate in live births per 1,000 inhabitants in the United States stood at 10.7. Between 1960 and 2023, the figure dropped by 13, though the decline followed an uneven course rather than a steady trajectory.

Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander women had the highest fertility rate of any ethnicity in the United States in 2022, with about 2,237.5 births per 1,000 women. The fertility rate for all ethnicities in the U.S. was 1,656.5 births per 1,000 women. What is the total fertility rate? The total fertility rate is an estimation of the number of children who would theoretically be born per 1,000 women through their childbearing years (generally considered to be between the ages of 15 and 44) according to age-specific fertility rates. The fertility rate is different from the birth rate, in that the birth rate is the number of births in relation to the population over a specific period of time. Fertility rates around the world Fertility rates around the world differ on a country-by-country basis, and more industrialized countries tend to see lower fertility rates. For example, Niger topped the list of the countries with the highest fertility rates, and Taiwan had the lowest fertility rate.

Graph and download economic data for Crude Birth Rate for the United States (SPDYNCBRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about birth, crude, rate, and USA.

This is the code replication archive for the paper, "The COVID-19 Baby Bump in the United States," published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The underlying natality microdata are restricted, so this archive contains only the code to replicate our analysis.We use natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in U.S. fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all U.S. births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to U.S.-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a pre-pandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education. The 2021-2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.

United States Birth Rate: White data was reported at 9.300 % in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 9.500 % for 2022. United States Birth Rate: White data is updated yearly, averaging 13.700 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2023, with 39 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.800 % in 1990 and a record low of 9.300 % in 2023. United States Birth Rate: White data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

United States Birth Rate: 10 to 14: Hispanic data was reported at 20.800 % in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.300 % for 2022. United States Birth Rate: 10 to 14: Hispanic data is updated yearly, averaging 1.200 % from Dec 1989 (Median) to 2023, with 35 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20.800 % in 2023 and a record low of 0.300 % in 2022. United States Birth Rate: 10 to 14: Hispanic data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

Analysis of ‘NCHS - Teen Birth Rates for Females by Age Group, Race, and Hispanic Origin: United States’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/681175bb-4c25-4876-9afc-4b55fd9e6920 on 26 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

This dataset includes teen birth rates for females by age group, race, and Hispanic origin in the United States since 1960.

Data availability varies by race and ethnicity groups. All birth data by race before 1980 are based on race of the child. Since 1980, birth data by race are based on race of the mother. For race, data are available for Black and White births since 1960, and for American Indians/Alaska Native and Asian/Pacific Islander births since 1980. Data on Hispanic origin are available since 1989. Teen birth rates for specific racial and ethnic categories are also available since 1989. From 2003 through 2015, the birth data by race were based on the “bridged” race categories (5). Starting in 2016, the race categories for reporting birth data changed; the new race and Hispanic origin categories are: Non-Hispanic, Single Race White; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Black; Non-Hispanic, Single Race American Indian/Alaska Native; Non-Hispanic, Single Race Asian; and, Non-Hispanic, Single Race Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (5,6). Birth data by the prior, “bridged” race (and Hispanic origin) categories are included through 2018 for comparison.

National data on births by Hispanic origin exclude data for Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma in 1989; New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 1990; and New Hampshire in 1991 and 1992. Birth and fertility rates for the Central and South American population includes other and unknown Hispanic. Information on reporting Hispanic origin is detailed in the Technical Appendix for the 1999 public-use natality data file (see ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/Nat1999doc.pdf).

SOURCES

NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, birth data (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm); public-use data files (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov/).

REFERENCES

1. National Office of Vital Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1950, Volume I. 1954. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsus_1950_1.pdf.

2. Hetzel AM. U.S. vital statistics system: major activities and developments, 1950-95. National Center for Health Statistics. 1997. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/usvss.pdf.

3. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1967, Volume I–Natality. 1969. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/nat67_1.pdf.

4. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, et al. Births: Final data for 2015. National vital statistics reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf.

5. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Drake P. Births: Final data for 2016. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 67 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2018. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_01.pdf.

6. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Births: Final data for 2018. National vital statistics reports; vol 68 no 13. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13.pdf.

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

Analysis of ‘NCHS - Births and General Fertility Rates: United States’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/704dd4ab-8519-4c5c-8d00-fbaa83389c06 on 26 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

This dataset includes crude birth rates and general fertility rates in the United States since 1909.

The number of states in the reporting area differ historically. In 1915 (when the birth registration area was established), 10 states and the District of Columbia reported births; by 1933, 48 states and the District of Columbia were reporting births, with the last two states, Alaska and Hawaii, added to the registration area in 1959 and 1960, when these regions gained statehood. Reporting area information is detailed in references 1 and 2 below. Trend lines for 1909–1958 are based on live births adjusted for under-registration; beginning with 1959, trend lines are based on registered live births.

SOURCES

NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, birth data (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm); public-use data files (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov/).

REFERENCES

1. National Office of Vital Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1950, Volume I. 1954. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsus_1950_1.pdf.

2. Hetzel AM. U.S. vital statistics system: major activities and developments, 1950-95. National Center for Health Statistics. 1997. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/usvss.pdf.

3. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1967, Volume I–Natality. 1969. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/nat67_1.pdf.

4. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, et al. Births: Final data for 2015. National vital statistics reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf.

5. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Drake P. Births: Final data for 2016. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 67 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2018. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_01.pdf.

6. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Births: Final data for 2018. National vital statistics reports; vol 68 no 13. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13.pdf.

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

United States Birth Rate: Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander data was reported at 16.100 % in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 16.500 % for 2022. United States Birth Rate: Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander data is updated yearly, averaging 16.550 % from Dec 2016 (Median) to 2023, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.000 % in 2019 and a record low of 15.800 % in 2021. United States Birth Rate: Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

United States Birth Rate: 45 to 49: Asian data was reported at 1.800 % in 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.800 % for 2022. United States Birth Rate: 45 to 49: Asian data is updated yearly, averaging 1.100 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2023, with 39 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.900 % in 2019 and a record low of 0.800 % in 2000. United States Birth Rate: 45 to 49: Asian data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

The average for 2022 based on 24 countries was 13.79 births per 1000 people. The highest value was in Haiti: 23.15 births per 1000 people and the lowest value was in Puerto Rico: 5.9 births per 1000 people. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2022. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

United States Birth Rate: Black data was reported at 11.700 % in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 12.300 % for 2022. United States Birth Rate: Black data is updated yearly, averaging 16.300 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2023, with 39 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 22.400 % in 1990 and a record low of 11.700 % in 2023. United States Birth Rate: Black data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

Analysis of ‘NCHS - Natality Measures for Females by Hispanic Origin Subgroup: United States’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/63e9c9b2-2b12-4069-af2d-dd728649ca34 on 27 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

This dataset includes live births, birth rates, and fertility rates by Hispanic origin of mother in the United States since 1989.

National data on births by Hispanic origin exclude data for Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma in 1989; New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 1990; and New Hampshire in 1991 and 1992. Birth and fertility rates for the Central and South American population includes other and unknown Hispanic. Information on reporting Hispanic origin is detailed in the Technical Appendix for the 1999 public-use natality data file (see ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/Nat1999doc.pdf).

SOURCES

NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, birth data (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm); public-use data files (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov/).

REFERENCES

1. National Office of Vital Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1950, Volume I. 1954. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsus_1950_1.pdf.

2. Hetzel AM. U.S. vital statistics system: major activities and developments, 1950-95. National Center for Health Statistics. 1997. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/usvss.pdf.

3. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1967, Volume I–Natality. 1969. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/nat67_1.pdf.

4. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, et al. Births: Final data for 2015. National vital statistics reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf.

5. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Drake P. Births: Final data for 2016. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 67 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2018. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_01.pdf.

6. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Births: Final data for 2018. National vital statistics reports; vol 68 no 13. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13.pdf.

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

The share of preterm births in the United States peaked in 2006 at 12.8 percent of all births. By 2023, 10.4 percent of all births in the United States were preterm births. This statistic depicts the percentage of births that were preterm births in the United States from 1990 to 2023.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total for the United States (SPDYNTFRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about fertility, rate, and USA.

Analysis of ‘NCHS - Teen Birth Rates for Age Group 15-19 in the United States by County’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/5af1d809-c84e-4658-95cc-afe56cd18e64 on 12 February 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

This data set contains estimated teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) by county and year.

DEFINITIONS

Estimated teen birth rate: Model-based estimates of teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) for a specific county and year. Estimated county teen birth rates were obtained using the methods described elsewhere (1,2,3,4). These annual county-level teen birth estimates “borrow strength” across counties and years to generate accurate estimates where data are sparse due to small population size (1,2,3,4). The inferential method uses information—including the estimated teen birth rates from neighboring counties across years and the associated explanatory variables—to provide a stable estimate of the county teen birth rate. Median teen birth rate: The middle value of the estimated teen birth rates for the age group 15–19 for counties in a state. Bayesian credible intervals: A range of values within which there is a 95% probability that the actual teen birth rate will fall, based on the observed teen births data and the model.

NOTES

Data on the number of live births for women aged 15–19 years were extracted from the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System birth data files for 2003–2015 (5).

Population estimates were extracted from the files containing intercensal and postcensal bridged-race population estimates provided by NCHS. For each year, the July population estimates were used, with the exception of the year of the decennial census, 2010, for which the April estimates were used.

Hierarchical Bayesian space–time models were used to generate hierarchical Bayesian estimates of county teen birth rates for each year during 2003–2015 (1,2,3,4).

The Bayesian analogue of the frequentist confidence interval is defined as the Bayesian credible interval. A 100*(1-α)% Bayesian credible interval for an unknown parameter vector θ and observed data vector y is a subset C of parameter space Ф such that 1-α≤P({C│y})=∫p{θ │y}dθ, where integration is performed over the set and is replaced by summation for discrete components of θ. The probability that θ lies in C given the observed data y is at least (1- α) (6).

County borders in Alaska changed, and new counties were formed and others were merged, during 2003–2015. These changes were reflected in the population files but not in the natality files. For this reason, two counties in Alaska were collapsed so that the birth and population counts were comparable. Additionally, Kalawao County, a remote island county in Hawaii, recorded no births, and census estimates indicated a denominator of 0 (i.e., no females between the ages of 15 and 19 years residing in the county from 2003 through 2015). For this reason, Kalawao County was removed from the analysis. Also , Bedford City, Virginia, was added to Bedford County in 2015 and no longer appears in the mortality file in 2015. For consistency, Bedford City was merged with Bedford County, Virginia, for the entire 2003–2015 period. Final analysis was conducted on 3,137 counties for each year from 2003 through 2015. County boundaries are consistent with the vintage 2005–2007 bridged-race population file geographies (7).

SOURCES

National Center for Health Statistics. Vital statistics data available online, Natality all-county files. Hyattsville, MD. Published annually.

For details about file release and access policy, see NCHS data release and access policy for micro-data and compressed vital statistics files, available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/dvs_data_release.htm.

For natality public-use files, see vital statistics data available online, available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vitalstatsonline.htm.

National Center for Health Statistics. U.S. Census populations with bridged race categories. Estimated population data available. Postcensal and intercensal files. Hyattsville, MD

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

Sex ratio at birth (male births per female births) in United States was reported at 1.049 in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. United States - Sex ratio at birth (male births per female births) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on August of 2025.