By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

A survey conducted among global brands revealed that talks of a recession in 2023 influence their media budget decisions. Nearly 75 percent of the multinationals surveyed agreed or strongly agreed that an economic crisis is taken into consideration when planning advertising and market expenditures for 2023.

A recession is due in the U.S. in 2023, according to a majority of macroeconomists in a June 2022 survey. Opinions varied, however, on when in 2023 this new recession could start exactly. Most respondents - 38 percent - believed the economic downturn most likely start in the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, 30 percent said that it would begin in the latter half of that year. Most Americans thought differently on this topic, believing that the country was already experiencing an economic recession in June 2022. The macroeconomists cited both geopolitical tensions and the increasing costs of energy as the main reasons why pressure would remain on U.S. inflation.

Short-term and floating-rate bonds are typically a popular investment choice during times of increasing rates. Roughly 52 percent of investors noted investing in assets that benefit from higher interest rates when anticipating an economic recession. While over 55 percent of investors choose to invest in fewer singular companies and increase asset allocation to conviction stocks.

Among talks of an economic recession in 2023, global brands showed divided expectations for their media budget planning. According to the survey conducted among 41 multinationals, 29.3 percent of respondents plan to slightly or significantly decrease their expenses with advertising and marketing in 2023, compared to 2022. On the other hand, another 29 percent intend to slightly or significantly increase their media budget. About 40 percent of the brands surveyed plan to keep their media investments at the same level as in 2022.

The weekly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fluctuated significantly in the United States between January 2021 and April 2023. Between January and April 2021, it increased sharply from -0.71 percent to 25.12 percent. From April 2021 onwards, it started to decrease drastically, with slight occasional increases, and reached its lowest value at negative 0.43 percent in November 2022. After November 2022, the weekly GDP growth rate increased notably.

In 2023, about 21.6 billion U.S. dollars' worth of commercial mortgage-based securities (CMBS) originations were issued in the United States. These are fixed income investment products which are backed by mortgages on commercial properties. The value of originations peaked in 2007 before the financial crisis at 241 billion U.S. dollars. Commercial mortgage delinquencies increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the hotel and retail sectors.

Due to increasing inflation rates, economic growth has been slow in several countries worldwide, and some risk falling into recession. When asked about this, 76 percent of respondents in South Korea believed that the country's economy had fallen into recession, and 75 percent of respondents in Turkey did the same. In fact, South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate increased by 1.4 percent in the third quarter of 2023. Inflation increased rapidly around the world through 2022 and 2023, before it started falling in some countries in 2024.

The year 2021 saw the peak in issuance of residential mortgage backed securities (MBS), at 3.7 trillion U.S. dollars. Since then, MBS issuance has slowed, reaching 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023. What are mortgage backed securities? A mortgage backed security is a financial instrument in which a group of mortgages are bundled together and sold to the investors. The idea is that the risk of these individual mortgages is pooled when they are packaged together. This is a sound investment policy, unless the foreclosure rate increases significantly in a short amount of time. Mortgage risk Since mortgages are loans backed by an asset, the house, the risk is often considered relatively low. However, the loan maturities are very long, sometimes decades, meaning lenders must factor in the risk of a shift in the economic climate. As such, interest rates on longer mortgages tend to be higher than on shorter loans. The ten-year treasury yield influences these rates, since it is a long-term rate that most investors accept as risk-free. Additionally, a drop in the value of homeowner equity could lead to a situation where the debtor is “underwater” and owes more than the home is worth.

In spring 2023, approximately a third of surveyed consumers in the United States said they would keep buying beauty supplies at the same rate as before if they entered a recession in the next six months. In contrast, less than 20 percent of U.S. shoppers felt they would do the same for jewelry and sporting gear.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

In spring 2023, roughly half of consumers in the United States said they could easily stop buying fine jewelry and/or watches if they entered a recession in the next six months. Ranking second and third, many also said they could easily cut out outdoor gear and fitness equipment purchases.

In spring 2023, more than half of surveyed consumers in the United States said they could live without buying apparel for a little while if they entered a recession in the next six months. Ranking second, many also said they could put a hold on buying home improvement items during times of economic uncertainty.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and March 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

Haiti is expected to experience the worst economic recession in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024. Haiti's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 is forecast to be 3 percent lower than the value registered in 2023, based on constant prices. Aside from Argentina, Haiti, and Puerto Rico, most economies in the region were likely to experience economic growth in 2024, most notably, Guyana.

Over 40 percent of U.S. consumers said they could easily cut out furniture purchases in the event of recession in the United States. Only about one-fifth of consumers said they would buy furniture items at the same rate regardless.

In 2022, the regional gross domestic product (GDP) in Latin America and the Caribbean grew more than four percent compared to the previous year. In 2020, the GDP of all the subregion shrunk, with Central America being the worst hit by the economic crisis spawned from the coronavirus pandemic, with a real GDP decrease of seven percent. This was the first time that this part of Latin America experiences a GDP fall since at least 2016. Forecasts for 2023 are fairly optimistic as well.

Stagflation (stagnation and inflation in one word) depicts a time period when an economy is not only suffering from a recession (declining GDP), but high unemployment and inflation rates as well. Usually unemployment and inflation are inversely related, which makes stagflation a rare occurrence. It first happened in the 1970s, when OPEC put an oil embargo on the United States, resulting in oil prices skyrocketing to three times the standard value at that time. As of September 2023, the price of oil fell by 20 percent in comparison to last year after having increased by 76 perent as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The has been signs of stagflation in some countries through 2022 and 2023, but falling inflation rates indicate that the worst has been avoided.

In 2023, the majority of the Polish population felt the effects of the economic downturn. Less than 16 percent did not feel the effects of the recession.

The Weekly Activity Index (WAI) of the German economy showed notable fluctuations between January 2021 and January 2025. It reached its lowest point at -0.81 percent in the 10th week of 2021 before experiencing a sharp increase, peaking at 1.4 percent in the 24th week of the same year. The index then declined significantly during the second half of 2021 but recovered slightly, ending the year at 0.36 percent. In early 2022, the WAI saw another significant drop and remained in negative territory until the 22nd week of 2023. Throughout 2024, the index continued to fluctuate markedly, displaying an upward trend in the first half of the year followed by a downward trend in the second half. What is the weekly activity index? The weekly activity index (WAI) is a weekly index designed to measure real economic activity in Germany. It is calculated as a common component from various indicators, such as industrial output, GDP, electricity consumption, credit card payments, and other high-frequency indicators. Positive values in the index indicates above average growth in real economic activity, while negative values signal a decline in economic output.