This 2024 announcement updates prior releases of Lau and Redlawsk’s operationalization of “correct voting” in U.S. presidential elections utilizing the quadrennial ANES surveys, now extending available data to the 2020 election. This folder contains 13 relatively small spss system files (e.g., CorVt72.sav, CorVt76.sav, etc.), one for each presidential year election study from 1972 through 2020 – plus one big combined system file including data from all 13 elections. Each file contains 11 variables: (Election) Year, CaseID (from the ANES survey), (survey) Mode, four slightly different estimates of which candidate we calculate is the correct choice for each respondent (USCorCand, UMCorCand, WSCorCand, and WMCorCand), and four slightly different estimates of whether the respondent reported voting for that “correct” candidate (CorrVtUS, CorrVtUM, CorrVtWS, and CorrVtWM). The US, UM, WS, and WM prefixes and suffixes refer to Unweighted Sums, Unweighted Means, Weighted Sums, and Weighted Means, respectively. As in the past, we only provide estimates for respondents with both pre- and post-election surveys. Unlike past releases, however, the data now includes an indicator of survey mode, and we now provide estimates for respondents interviewed with all available survey modes, not just the tradition face-to-face mode. This greatly increases the number of respondents with correct voting estimates from the 2000, 2012, 2016, and of course 2020 studies (when because of covid no face-to-face interviews were conducted). Fortunately, eyeballing this new data (see Correct Voting Summary Data.docx), there do not appear to be any significant mode differences beyond what can be explained by sampling error.

According to an October 2024 survey, young Americans were much more likely to vote for Kamala Harris in the November 2024 presidential elections. Of those between the ages of 18 and 29, 60 percent said they were planning on voting for Harris, compared to 33 percent who said they planned on voting for Trump. In contrast, Trump was much more popular among those between 45 and 64 years old.

What are the opinions of American registered voters about election fraud and types of election fraud as we head into the final stages of the 2024 Presidential election? In this paper we use data from an online national survey of 2,211 U.S. registered voters interviewed between June 26 - July 3, 2024. Respondents were asked how common they thought that ten different types of election fraud might be in the U.S. In our analysis, we show that substantial proportions of U.S. registered voters believe that these types of election fraud are common. Our multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common, even when we control for a wide variety of other factors. We also find that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when we control for partisanship. Our results reported in this paper provide important data regarding how American registered voters perceive the prevalence of types of election fraud, just months before the 2024 Presidential election.

This dataset provides detailed information for the 2024 US Presidential Election, offering a valuable resource for political analysis and research. It includes a variety of data types, such as profiles of candidates, primary/caucus results, poll data, and debate transcripts. Key updates have been integrated throughout the election season, including the latest poll figures, transcripts from the Vice-Presidential debate between Walz and Vance, and the debate between Trump and Harris.

Significant events covered within the dataset include an annotated image and transcripts related to an assassination attempt on former President Trump. The political landscape evolved with the Democratic Party replacing President Biden with Kamala Harris in late August, setting up a contest between Trump and Harris, alongside nominees from smaller factions. The dataset also features approval ratings for sitting presidents, including Biden and Trump, and details on candidates like Robert F Kennedy Jr, who is running as an independent. This collection is regularly updated to reflect developments as the election cycle progresses, making it a current and dynamic source for understanding the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Columns

The dataset contains information on candidates with formal bids for the presidency, including the following columns:

• party: The political party affiliation of the candidate (e.g., republican, democrat, other).
• name: The full name of the candidate.
• date_announced: The date on which the candidate formally announced their intention to run for president. This column contains 21 unique values, ranging from 16 November 2022 to 1 July 2024.
• date_withdrawn: The date on which the candidate withdrew their bid for the presidency.

The data indicates that 62% of the candidate entries are Republican, 19% are Democrat, and 19% represent other parties.

Distribution

The data file is typically provided in a CSV format. A sample file will be made available separately on the platform. The dataset is listed as Version 1.0 and has a quality rating of 5 out of 5. While specific row or record counts are not currently available, the dataset is structured to facilitate analysis of various aspects of the 2024 US Presidential Election. It is available globally and offered as a free dataset. The data types included are tabular and text.

Usage

This dataset is an ideal resource for a multitude of applications and use cases, including:

• Political analysis and research into election trends.
• Government and civic record analysis.
• Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, utilising the debate transcripts for sentiment analysis, topic modelling, or text generation.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) model development for election outcome prediction, voter behaviour analysis, or candidate performance assessment.
• Studying the historical context and evolution of presidential campaigns.
• Developing visualisations and dashboards for public understanding of the election.

Coverage

The dataset focuses on the 2024 US Presidential Election and its related events, primarily covering the United States. The time range for data updates spans from March through to the final election night update, with candidate announcement dates beginning as early as November 2022 and extending into July 2024. This includes critical periods such as primary elections, nominating conventions, and general election campaigning. While primarily focused on the 2024 cycle, Version 3 of this dataset previously included coverage of the 2022 Congressional Mid-term Elections. The dataset provides insights into various demographic aspects through its focus on candidates from different political parties (Republican, Democrat, and other factions) and covers key figures like Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Robert F Kennedy Jr, Walz, and Vance.

License

CC By 4.0

Who Can Use It

This dataset is suitable for a wide range of users, including:

• Data analysts and scientists seeking to model election outcomes or understand political dynamics.
• Researchers and academics in political science, sociology, and media studies.
• Journalists and media organisations for reporting, investigative journalism, and creating data-driven stories about the election.
• Students undertaking projects or coursework related to American politics and elections.
• Developers and engineers creating applications or tools for political engagement or data visualisation.
• Government agencies or civic organisations interested in public opinion and electoral processes.

Dataset Name Suggestions

• 2024 US Presidential Election Data
• US Presidential Campaign 2024 Analytics
• American Election Data: 2024 Cycle
• US Presidential Candidate & Poll Data

Attributes

Original Data Source: [

According to exit polling in *** key states of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, almost ********** of voters who had never attended college reported voting for Donald Trump. In comparison, a similar share of voters with ******** degrees reported voting for Kamala Harris.

These replication data include a readapted version of the 2012, 2016, and 2020 ANES Time Series Studies, containing only the variables relevant to the analysis performed in the study "Predicting Popular Vote Shares in US Presidential Elections: a Model-Based Strategy Relying on ANES Data", published as part of the Special Issue on Forecasting the 2024 Presidential Elections in PS: Political Science and Politics (Guest Editors: Mary Stegmaier and Philippe Mongrain). The folder also includes the corresponding Stata scripts used for recoding the original variables and conducting the standard and Bayesian logistic regression models presented in the publication.

This Dataverse contains the R code necessary to replicate the data manipulation, analyses, figures, and tables in the manuscript and online supplementary information of "The Personalization of Electoral Participation? The Relationship Between Trait Evaluations of Presidential Candidates and Turnout Decisions in American Presidential Elections 1980-2020" by Segerberg, Tim (2024). The study utilizes ANES Time Series Cumulative Data File 1948-2020 that you find on the following URL: https://electionstudies.org/data-center/anes-time-series-cumulative-data-file/

According to a September 2024 survey of adults in the United States, Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation were the most likely to vote in the 2024 presidential election, with ** percent and ** percent stating that they were definitely going to vote, respectively. In comparison, ** percent of Gen Z and Millennial Americans said they were definitely planning to vote in November.

According to a 2023 survey of young adults in the United States, just over half of Americans between 18 and 24 years old were planning on voting in the 2024 presidential election. The likelihood among those between the ages of ** and ** was only slightly greater.

According to an April 2024 survey, over 40 percent of voters in the United States would consider voting for a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential elections. However, 24 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of Democrats reported that they would not consider voting third-party.

A survey conducted in February 2025 found that the most important issue for ** percent of Americans was inflation and prices. A further ** percent of respondents were most concerned about jobs and the economy.

According to a 2024 survey, confidence in how accurately votes will be counted in the 2024 presidential election was relatively low across American voters, with nearly one-third of respondents stating that they were not confident that the votes would be counted correctly. However, 38 percent were very confident in the votes being counted accurately.

According to a survey from late December 2024, the two most important issues among Republican voters in the United States were inflation and immigration, with ** and ** percent ranking it their primary political concerns respectively. In contrast, only *** percent of Democrats considered immigration their most important issue. Inflation and healthcare were the leading issues among democrats in the U.S.

During a survey conducted in August 2024, over 50 percent of respondents in Chile mentioned crime as one of the three most important problems affecting the South American country. Immigration and corruption followed as the second and third most quoted issues, with 25.7 and 22.8 percent, respectively. Price levels in Chile have been experiencing a steep increase since February 2021, with the inflation rate reaching double digits since April 2022.

In the 2020 presidential election, about ** percent of voters aged between 18 and 29 participated in the election -- a significant increase from the previous election year, when about ** percent of youths voted in the election. The highest youth turnout rate was in 1972, when **** percent of voters between the ages of ** and ** voted in the election.

According to a December survey, Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans remained strong following the 2024 election, with 72 percent viewing him very favorably and 18 percent somewhat favorably. This overwhelming support from his party base contrasts sharply with Democrats, of whom 84 percent viewed Trump very unfavorably. Independents were more divided, with 47 percent expressing some degree of favorability towards the former president. Electoral college victory Trump's popularity among Republicans translated into electoral success in the 2024 presidential election. He secured 312 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win the presidency. This victory came as Trump won all seven swing states, some by significant margins, despite pre-election polls showing only a slight lead in most battleground states. Increased republican support The 2024 election saw Republicans gain ground across the country. Every state reported an increase in Republican votes compared to 2020, with New York showing the largest gain of 6.43 percent. New Jersey and Florida also saw significant increases of nearly five percent. This surge in Republican support led to Trump flipping six states that he had lost in the previous election, contributing to his decisive victory.

According to a survey conducted in 2024, ** percent of Americans said that they would not vote for a presidential candidate who was atheist, and ** percent also said they would not vote for a presidential candidate who was Muslim in the United States. A further ** percent said that they would not vote for a candidate who was Hindu.

According to a survey conducted just over a month after her defeat in the 2024 presidential election, approximately ** percent of surveyed Americans had a favorable opinion of Vice President Harris. Of those, ** percent had a very favorable opinion of Harris.

According to an October 2024 survey, although generally more popular among younger voters, adults in the United States were fairly consistent on whether they considered Robert F. Kennedy Jr. favorable regardless of their age, with seven percent of voters aged 18 to 29 considering the 2024 presidential candidate very favorable. Additionally, 40 percent of U.S. voters found Kennedy Jr. somewhat favorable, within the same age group. Although originally filing his presidential bid with the Democratic Party in April 2023, Kennedy later announced he would run independently.

In a survey of U.S. adults conducted in July 2024, ** percent of respondents held a very unfavorable opinion of Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. On the other hand, ** percent of respondents had a very favorable opinion of the Congresswoman.