By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Due to increasing inflation rates, economic growth has been slow in several countries worldwide, and some risk falling into recession. When asked about this, ** percent of respondents in South Korea believed that the country's economy had fallen into recession, and ** percent of respondents in Turkey did the same. In fact, South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate increased by *** percent in the third quarter of 2023. Inflation increased rapidly around the world through 2022 and 2023, before it started falling in some countries in 2024.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.995 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.031 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.564 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 543 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 87.972 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.

For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

In May 2025, the Sahm recession indicator was ****, indicating no change from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by **** percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (USRECDP) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-07-22 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 6.80000 Percentage Points in October of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data was reported at 6.800 % Point in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.300 % Point for Sep 2024. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 7.900 % Point from Dec 1967 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 229 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % Point in Sep 2020. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S094: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index.

According to a survey conducted in August 2024, over 20 percent of consumers in the United States believed both inflation and a pending recession would impact their Halloween spending plans. About the same number of people said these economic changes would not influence their spending.

Haiti is expected to experience the worst economic recession in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024. Haiti's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 is forecast to be 3 percent lower than the value registered in 2023, based on constant prices. Aside from Argentina, Haiti, and Puerto Rico, most economies in the region were likely to experience economic growth in 2024, most notably, Guyana.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.48% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

In 2022, the regional gross domestic product (GDP) in Latin America and the Caribbean grew more than four percent compared to the previous year. In 2020, the GDP of all the subregion shrunk, with Central America being the worst hit by the economic crisis spawned from the coronavirus pandemic, with a real GDP decrease of seven percent. This was the first time that this part of Latin America experiences a GDP fall since at least 2016. Forecasts for 2023 are fairly optimistic as well.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global AI Sensor Market with Recession Market size is USD 2.8 billion in 2024 and will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.6% from 2024 to 2031. Market Dynamics of AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Key Drivers for AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Advancements in AI and Machine Learning: Rapid advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning are boosting the use of Al sensors. Algorithms are getting increasingly sophisticated and capable of handling complicated data from sensors, enabling real-time decision-making and predictive analytics. These developments allow Al sensors to detect patterns, anomalies, and trends in data streams, making them useful in applications such as picture recognition, natural language processing, and predictive maintenance. For instance, in manufacturing, Al sensors may detect faults in real time, improving quality control and lowering waste. Al sensors also improve the capability of autonomous systems and robots. They can perceive their surroundings, adjust to changing circumstances, and make sound decisions. This is especially crucial in industries like agriculture, where autonomous drones equipped with Al sensors can check crop health, detect pest infestations, and optimize pesticide use. Security and Surveillance applications

Key Restraints for AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Capital Spending Delays in Price-Sensitive Sectors: Businesses in a variety of sectors, including retail, consumer electronics, and the automobile industry, frequently postpone or abandon capital-intensive initiatives and technological advancements during recessions. This has a direct impact on the use of AI sensors in consumer electronics, smart factories, and new goods, momentarily reducing market expansion.

Semiconductor shortages and supply chain disruptions: Complex semiconductor components are necessary for AI sensors, and supply chain bottlenecks are frequently made worse by global economic downturns. Delays in shipping, reduced manufacturing capacity, and geopolitical unrest can all affect sensor production and lengthen lead times, making it more difficult for industries to deploy sensors on time.

Key Trends for AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Transition to Low-Cost Advanced AI Sensors: Industries are turning to edge AI sensors that analyze data locally in order to deal with financial restrictions. This eliminates the need for expensive cloud infrastructure and latency problems. Due to their simplicity of deployment and reduced total cost of ownership, small, energy-efficient sensors with on-chip AI are becoming more and more popular. Growing Utilization in Energy Efficiency and Predictive Maintenance: Operational efficiency is a top priority for financially stressed organizations, and AI sensors are essential for energy optimization and predictive maintenance. Industrial equipment with sensors built in can anticipate malfunctions, prolong the life of machinery, and use less electricity, all of which can result in quantifiable cost savings during recessions. Introduction of the AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Al sensors are also improving the capabilities of autonomous systems and robots. They can perceive their surroundings, adjust to changing conditions, and make sound decisions. This is especially crucial in industries like agriculture, where autonomous drones equipped with Al sensors can check crop health, detect pest infestations, and optimize pesticide use. Also, increased demand for life-saving healthcare equipment and self-driving capabilities in new electric vehicles are expected to fuel growth. The global shift towards digitization is expected to boost growth even further.

The economy of the United Kingdom shrank by 0.1 percent in May 2025, after shrinking by 0.3 percent in April 2025. As of the most recent month, the UK economy is around 4.4 percent larger than it was in February 2020, just before the start of COVID-19 lockdowns. After a record 19.6 percent decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy quickly returned to growth in the following months, and grew through most of 2021. Cost of living crisis lingers into 2025 As of December 2024, just over half of people in the UK reported that their cost of living was higher than it was in the previous month. Although this is a decline from the peak of the crisis in 2022 when over 90 percent of people reported a higher cost of living, households are evidently still under severe pressure. While wage growth has outpaced inflation since July 2023, overall consumer prices were 20 percent higher in late 2024 than they were in late 2021. For food and energy, which lower income households spend more on, late 2024 prices were almost 30 percent higher when compared with late 2021. According to recent estimates, living standards, as measured by changes in disposable income fell by 2.1 percent in 2022/23, but did start to grow again in 2023/24. Late 2023 recession followed by growth in 2024 In December 2023, the UK economy was approximately the same size as it was a year earlier, and struggled to achieve modest growth throughout that year. Going into 2023, a surge in energy costs, as well as high interest rates, created an unfavorable environment for UK consumers and businesses. The inflationary pressures that drove these problems did start to subside, however, with inflation falling to 3.9 percent in November 2023, down from a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although relatively strong economic growth occurred in the first half of 2024, with GDP growing by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent in the first two quarters of the year, zero growth was reported in the third quarter of the year. Long-term issues, such as low business investment, weak productivity growth, and regional inequality, will likely continue to hamper the economy going forward.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.