In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (DFII20) from 2004-07-27 to 2025-07-17 about 20-year, TIPS, maturity, securities, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.99% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points and is 0.54 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS3) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-07-17 about 3-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on US 20 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.98% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.08 points and is 0.42 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for US 20Y.

Graph and download economic data for 20-Year 2-1/2% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 1/15/2029 (DTP20J29) from 2010-01-04 to 2025-07-18 about 20-year, TIPS, bonds, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

After to as low as low as **** percent in July 2020, in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, the yield on 10-year U.S treasury bonds increased considerably. As of June 2024, it reached **** percent.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.88% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.05 points and is 0.64 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.53% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.12 points and is 0.49 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).

For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).

The yield on Indonesia 20 Year Bond Yield rose to 6.99% on July 17, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.02 points and is 0.09 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Indonesia 20Y.

The yield on China 20 Year Bond Yield rose to 1.91% on July 10, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.03 points and is 0.55 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for China 20Y.

China Bond Yield: Treasury Bond: 10 Year data was reported at 1.679 % pa in 16 May 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.680 % pa for 15 May 2025. China Bond Yield: Treasury Bond: 10 Year data is updated daily, averaging 3.254 % pa from Mar 2006 (Median) to 16 May 2025, with 4806 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.722 % pa in 20 Nov 2013 and a record low of 1.596 % pa in 06 Feb 2025. China Bond Yield: Treasury Bond: 10 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: PBC & CCDC: Treasury Bond and Other Bond Yield: Daily.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (DFII5) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-07-17 about TIPS, maturity, securities, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, 5-year, rate, and USA.

The yield on Romania 10Y Bond Yield rose to 7.20% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.25 points, though it remains 0.56 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Romania 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Portugal 20 Year Bond Yield rose to 3.74% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.13 points and is 0.33 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Portugal 20Y.

Interactive chart showing the daily 5 year treasury yield back to 1962. The values shown are daily data published by the Federal Reserve Board based on the average yield of a range of Treasury securities, all adjusted to the equivalent of a five-year maturity.

China Special Treasury Bond: Value Date: Coupon Rate: Interest-bearing Book-entry: 20 Year data was reported at 1.980 % pa in 25 Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.330 % pa for 15 Aug 2024. China Special Treasury Bond: Value Date: Coupon Rate: Interest-bearing Book-entry: 20 Year data is updated daily, averaging 2.330 % pa from May 2024 (Median) to 25 Apr 2025, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.490 % pa in 25 May 2024 and a record low of 1.980 % pa in 25 Apr 2025. China Special Treasury Bond: Value Date: Coupon Rate: Interest-bearing Book-entry: 20 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Finance. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: MOF: Special Treasury Bond Yield: Primary Market: Daily.

China Treasury Bond Yield: Primary Market: Interest-bearing Book-entry: 20 Year data was reported at 1.980 % pa in 25 Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.330 % pa for 15 Aug 2024. China Treasury Bond Yield: Primary Market: Interest-bearing Book-entry: 20 Year data is updated daily, averaging 4.015 % pa from May 2005 (Median) to 25 Apr 2025, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.940 % pa in 11 Aug 2008 and a record low of 1.980 % pa in 25 Apr 2025. China Treasury Bond Yield: Primary Market: Interest-bearing Book-entry: 20 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Finance. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: MOF: Treasury Bond Yield: Primary Market: Daily.