Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2025-06-08 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In April 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in April 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 10.2 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Norway was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Norway Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Switzerland was last recorded at 0.25 percent. This dataset provides - Switzerland Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

According to the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters, the interest rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations is expected to decrease from 2.9 percent in January 2025 to 1.9 percent in 2026.

United States SCE: Stock Price: Probability That US Stock Prices will be Higher 1 Year from Now data was reported at 40.257 % in Jan 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 39.797 % for Dec 2024. United States SCE: Stock Price: Probability That US Stock Prices will be Higher 1 Year from Now data is updated monthly, averaging 39.684 % from Jun 2013 (Median) to Jan 2025, with 140 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 51.840 % in Apr 2020 and a record low of 33.767 % in Jun 2022. United States SCE: Stock Price: Probability That US Stock Prices will be Higher 1 Year from Now data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H078: Survey of Consumer Expectations: Financial.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States SCE: Unemployment Expectation: Probability That the US Unemployment Rate will be Higher 1 Year from Now data was reported at 44.045 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 39.443 % for Feb 2025. United States SCE: Unemployment Expectation: Probability That the US Unemployment Rate will be Higher 1 Year from Now data is updated monthly, averaging 37.018 % from Jun 2013 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 142 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 50.858 % in Mar 2020 and a record low of 30.680 % in Jun 2021. United States SCE: Unemployment Expectation: Probability That the US Unemployment Rate will be Higher 1 Year from Now data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H075: Survey of Consumer Expectations: Job.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.