Under current climate policies, Sudan would face a GDP loss of 32 percent by 2050 and a shrinkage of over 80 percent by 2100 due to climate change. According to the source's estimates, this would be the most significant loss among all assessed countries in Africa. Even in a scenario of limiting temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the damage to Sudan's economy would stand at a GDP reduction of 22 percent by 2050 and 51 percent by 2100. Eight out of 10 countries estimated to record the largest GDP reduction because of climate change globally were located in Africa. The estimates did not consider potential adaptation measures to alleviate the economic loss.

Version history:This data are a new version of Geiger et al (2017, http:doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.003). Please use this updated version of this dataset which contains the following correction of errors in the original dataset: The linear interpolation in GDP per capita for Aruba (ABW) between observations in 2005 and SSP2 projections in 2010 was replaced by observed GDP per capita values for the years 2006-2009, as the SSP2 projection for Aruba turned out to be incorrect. As a result of this, the national GDP per capita and GDP timeseries for Aruba between 2006 and 2009 is different from the previous version. We here provide three different economic time series that amend or combine various existing time series for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita, and population to create consistent and continuous economic time series between 1850 and 2009 for up to 195 countries. All data, including the data description are included in a zip folder (2018-010_GDP_1850-2009_Data_v2.zip): (1) A continuous table of global income data (in 1990 Geary-Khamis $) based on the Maddison Project data base (MPD) for 160 individual countries and 3 groups of countries from 1850-2010: Maddison_Project_data_completed_1850-2010.csv. (2) A continuous table of global income data (in 2005 PPP $, PPP = purchasing power parity) for 195 countries based on a merged and harmonized dataset between MPD and Penn World Tables (PWT, version v8.1) from 1850-2009, and additionally extended using PWT v9.0 and World Development Indicators (WDI), that is consistent with future GDP per capita projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): GDP-per-capita-national_PPP2005_SSP-harmonized_1850-2009_v2.csv. (3) A continuous table of global GDP data (in 2005 PPP $) for 195 countries from 1850-2009 based on the second income data set multiplied by country population data, again consistent with future SSP GDP projections: GDP-national_PPP2005_SSP-harmonized_1850-2009_v2.csv. These data are supplemented by a masking table indicating MPD original data and amended data based on current country definitions (Maddison_data_availability_masked_1850-2010.csv) and a file with PPP conversion factors used in this study (PPP_conversion_factors_PPP1990-PPP2005.csv). We use various interpolation and extrapolation methods to handle missing data and discuss the advantages and limitations of our methodology. Despite known shortcomings this data set aims to provide valuable input, e.g., for climate impact research in order to consistently analyze economic impacts from pre-industrial times to the distant future. More information about data sources and data format description is given in the data description file (2018-010_Data-Description-GDP_1850-2009_v2.pdf).

The Country-Level GDP and Downscaled Projections Based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, A2, B1, and B2 marker scenarios, 1990-2100, were developed using the 1990 base year GDP (Gross Domestic Product) from national accounts database available from the UN Statistics Division. SRES regional GDP growth rates were calculated from 1990 to 2100 based on the SRES marker model regional data and applied uniformly to each country that fell within the SRES-defined regions. This data set is produced and distributed by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

We here provide spatially-explicit economic time series for Gross Cell Product (GCP) with global coverage in 10-year increments between 1850 and 2100 with a spatial resolution of 5 arcmin. GCP is based on a statistcal downscaling procedure that among other predictors uses national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series and gridded population estimates as input. Historical estimates until 2000 are harmonized with future socio-economic projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) according to SSP2 from 2010 onwards. We further provide a mapping file with identical spatial resolution to associate GCP values with specifc countries. Based on this mapping we provide nationally aggregated GDP estimates between 1850-2100 in a separate csv-file. Additionally, we provide a mapping file with identical spatial resolution providing national assets-GDP ratios, that can be used to transform GCP to asset values based on 2016 estimates from Credit Suisse's Global Wealth Databook 2016.

The Global 15x15 Minute Grids of the Downscaled GDP Based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025, are geospatial distributions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Unit area (GDP densities). These global grids were generated using the Country-level GDP and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990-2100 data set, and CIESIN's Gridded Population of World, Version 2 (GPWv2) data set as the base map. First, the GDP per capita was developed at a country-level for 1990 and 2025. Then the gridded GDP was developed within each country by applying the GDP per capita to each grid cell of the GPW, under the assumption that the GDP per capita was uniform within a country. This data set is produced and distributed by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

Whereas the population is expected to decrease somewhat until 2100 in Asia, Europe, and South America, it is predicted to grow significantly in Africa. While there were 1.5 billion inhabitants on the continent at the beginning of 2024, the number of inhabitants is expected to reach 3.8 billion by 2100. In total, the global population is expected to reach nearly 10.4 billion by 2100. Worldwide population In the United States, the total population is expected to steadily increase over the next couple of years. In 2024, Asia held over half of the global population and is expected to have the highest number of people living in urban areas in 2050. Asia is home to the two most populous countries, India and China, both with a population of over one billion people. However, the small country of Monaco had the highest population density worldwide in 2021. Effects of overpopulation Alongside the growing worldwide population, there are negative effects of overpopulation. The increasing population puts a higher pressure on existing resources and contributes to pollution. As the population grows, the demand for food grows, which requires more water, which in turn takes away from the freshwater available. Concurrently, food needs to be transported through different mechanisms, which contributes to air pollution. Not every resource is renewable, meaning the world is using up limited resources that will eventually run out. Furthermore, more species will become extinct which harms the ecosystem and food chain. Overpopulation was considered to be one of the most important environmental issues worldwide in 2020.

We here provide three different economic time series that amend or combine various existing time series for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita, and population to create consistent and continuous economic time series between 1850 and 2009 for up to 195 countries:

(1) A continuous table of global income data (in 1990 Geary-Khamis $) based on the Maddison Project data base (MPD) for 160 individual countries and 3 groups of countries from 1850-2010: Maddison_Project_data_completed_1850-2010.csv.(2) A continuous table of global income data (in 2005 PPP $, PPP = purchasing power parity) for 195 countries based on a merged and harmonized dataset between MPD and Penn World Tables (PWT, version v8.1) from 1850-2009, and additionally extended using PWT v9.0 and World Development Indicators (WDI), that is consistent with future GDP per capita projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): GDP-per-capita-national_PPP2005_SSP-harmonized_1850-2009.csv.(3) A continuous table of global GDP data (in 2005 PPP $) for 195 countries from 1850-2009 based on the second income data set multiplied by country population data, again consistent with future SSP GDP projections: GDP-national_PPP2005_SSP-harmonized_1850-2009.csv.

These data are supplemented by a masking table indicating MPD original data and amended data based on current country definitions (Maddison_data_availability_masked_1850-2010.csv) and a file with PPP conversion factors used in this study (PPP_conversion_factors_PPP1990-PPP2005.csv).

We use various interpolation and extrapolation methods to handle missing data and discuss the advantages and limitations of our methodology. Despite known shortcomings this data set aims to provide valuable input, e.g., for climate impact research in order to consistently analyze economic impacts from pre-industrial times to the distant future. More information about data sources and data format description is given in the data description file (Data-Description-GDP_1850-2009.pdf).

Version history: Please use the updated version of this dataset which contains correction of errors in the original dataset. For a detailed description of the changes please consult the CHANGELOG included in the data description document of the new version.

This climate change impact data (future scenarios on temperature-induced GDP losses) and climate change mitigation cost data (REMIND model scenarios) is published under doi: 10.5281/zenodo.3541809 and used in this paper:

Ueckerdt F, Frieler K, Lange S, Wenz L, Luderer G, Levermann A (2018) The economically optimal warming limit of the planet. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019

Below the individual file contents are explained. For further questions feel free to write to Falko Ueckerdt (ueckerdt@pik-potsdam.de).

Climate change impact data

File 1: Data_rel-GDPpercapita-changes_withCC_per-country_all-RCP_all-SSP_4GCM.csv

Content: Data of relative change in absolute GDP/CAP levels (compared to the baseline path of the respective SSP in the SSP database) for each country, RCP (and a zero-emissions scenario), SSP and 4 GCMs (spanning a broad range of climate sensitivity). Negative (positive) values indicate losses (gains) due to climate change. For figure 1a of the paper, this data was aggregated for all countries.

File 2: Data_rel-GDPpercapita-changes_withCC_per-country_all-SSP_4GCM_interpolated-for-REMIND-scenarios.csv

Content: Data of relative change in absolute GDP/CAP levels (compared to the baseline path of the respective SSP in the SSP database) for each country, SSP and 4 GCMs (spanning a broad range of climate sensitivity). The RCP (and a zero-emissions scenario) are interpolated to the temperature pathways of the ten REMIND model scenarios used for climate change mitigation costs. Hereby the set of scenarios for climate impacts and climate change mitigation are consistent and can be combined to total costs of climate change (for a broad range of mitigation action).

File 3: Data_rel-GDPpercapita-changes_withCC_per-country_SSP2_12GCM_interpolated-for-REMIND-scenarios.csv

Content: Same as file 2, but only for the SSP2 (chosen default scenario for the study) and for all 12 GCMs. Data of relative change in absolute GDP/CAP levels (compared to the baseline path of the respective SSP in the SSP database) for each country, SSP-2 and 12 GCMs (spanning a broad range of climate sensitivity). The RCP (and a zero-emissions scenario) are interpolated to the temperature pathways of the ten REMIND model scenarios used for climate change mitigation costs. Hereby the set of scenarios for climate impacts and climate change mitigation are consistent and can be combined to total costs of climate change (for a broad range of mitigation action).

In addition, reference GDP and population data (without climate change) for each country until 2100 was downloaded from the SSP database, release Version 1.0 (March 2013, https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/, last accessed 15Nov 2019).

Climate change mitigation cost data

The scenario design and runs used in this paper have first been conducted in [1] and later also used in [2].

File 4: REMIND_scenario_results_economic_data.csv

File 5: REMIND_scenarios_climate_data.csv

Content: A broad range of climate change mitigation scenarios of the REMIND model. File 4 contains the economic data of e.g. GDP and macro-economic consumption for each of the countries and world regions, as well as GHG emissions from various economic sectors. File 5 contains the global climate-related data, e.g. forcing, concentration, temperature.

In the scenario description “FFrunxxx” (column 2), the code “xxx” specifies the scenario as follows. See [1] for a detailed discussion of the scenarios.

The first dimension specifies the climate policy regime (delayed action, baseline scenarios):

1xx: climate action from 2010 5xx: climate action from 2015 2xx climate action from 2020 (used in this study) 3xx climate action from 2030 4x1 weak policy baseline (before Paris agreement)

The second dimension specifies the technology portfolio and assumptions:

x1x Full technology portfolio (used in this study) x2x noCCS: unavailability of CCS x3x lowEI: lower energy intensity, with final energy demand per economic output decreasing faster than historically observed x4x NucPO: phase out of investments into nuclear energy x5x Limited SW: penetration of solar and wind power limited x6x Limited Bio: reduced bioenergy potential p.a. (100 EJ compared to 300 EJ in all other cases) x6x noBECCS: unavailability of CCS in combination with bioenergy

The third dimension specifies the climate change mitigation ambition level, i.e. the height of a global CO2 tax in 2020 (which increases with 5% p.a.).

xx1 0$/tCO2 (baseline) xx2 10$/tCO2 xx3 30$/tCO2 xx4 50$/tCO2 xx5 100$/tCO2 xx6 200$/tCO2 xx7 500$/tCO2 xx8 40$/tCO2 xx9 20$/tCO2 xx0 5$/tCO2

For figure 1b of the paper, this data was aggregated for all countries and regions. Relative changes of GDP are calculated relative to the baseline (4x1 with zero carbon price).

[1] Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Bertram, C., Kriegler, E., Meinshausen, M. and Edenhofer, O.: Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets, Environmental Research Letters, 8(3), 034033, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034033, 2013a.

[2] Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V. and Riahi, K.: Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C, Nature Climate Change, 5(6), 519–527, doi:10.1038/nclimate2572, 2015.

In 2024, Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated at nearly 189 billion U.S. dollars at current prices. To compare, in the previous year, the country's GDP stood at over 177 billion U.S. dollars. See the Russian GDP for comparison. Ukraine's economic decline in 2014 and 2015 In just two years, between 2013 and 2015, GDP in Ukraine was dramatically reduced to half its amount. This very severe decrease was mainly due to the armed conflict in the eastern part of the country, which was causing many of its inhabitants to be internally displaced. Life in general became increasingly difficult for Ukrainians, not only because of the conflict, but also because of the country’s economic issues. The inflation rate had risen to almost 50 percent, and unemployment reached over nine percent. Russia, formerly Ukraine’s most important trade partner, no longer played this role, having caused a great shift in the country’s base economy. Ukraine’s national debt in relation to GDP was also unsustainable, having increased to nearly 80 percent in 2015. Default or restructuring of its debt was inevitable, and eventually restructuring took place in August 2015.

1960-2100 "the Belt and Road" countries' climate change risk data set (climate change trends and extreme events, food, ecology, population, economy and other risk carriers), including 1960, 1990, 20202, 2050, 2100 the Belt and Road countries' climate change to crop risk data, 2005, 2030, 2050, 2100 climate change to GDP risk data, 2020, 2050, 2100 climate change to population risk data, Data of precipitation, the highest temperature and the lowest temperature of countries along the the Belt and Road from 2020 to 2100. The meteorological data (precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature) from 1960 to 2100 are derived from the RegCM model of the National Meteorological Center and CMIP6, and the food, ecological, population, and economic data of the countries along the the Belt and Road are derived from the food production data, ecological environment data, population density data, and GDP data in the Belt and Road Network of China and the Inter sectoral Impact Model Comparison Plan (ISI-MIP). Apply dynamic vegetation models to simulate the temporal changes of vegetation and the dynamic impacts of climate, and use threshold methods to analyze the risks of climate change on food, ecology, population, and economy.

In 2024, Germany was the leading EU country in terms of population, with around 85 million inhabitants. In 2050, approximately 89.2 million people will live in Germany, according to the forecast. See the total EU population figures for more information. The global population The global population is rapidly increasing. Between 1990 and 2015, it increased by around 2 billion people. Furthermore, it is estimated that the global population will have increased by another 1 billion by 2030. Asia is the continent with the largest population, followed by Africa and Europe. In Asia,the two most populous nations worldwide are located, China and India. In 2014, the combined population in China and India alone amounted to more than 2.6 billion people. for comparison, the total population in the whole continent of Europe is at around 741 million people. As of 2014, about 60 percent of the global population was living in Asia, with only approximately 10 percent in Europe and even less in the United States. Europe is the continent with the second-highest life expectancy at birth in the world, only barely surpassed by Northern America. In 2013, the life expectancy at birth in Europe was around 78 years. Stable economies and developing and emerging markets in European countries provide for good living conditions. Seven of the top twenty countries in the world with the largest gross domestic product in 2015 are located in Europe.

The median age in India was 27 years old in 2020, meaning half the population was older than that, half younger. This figure was lowest in 1970, at 18.1 years, and was projected to increase to 47.8 years old by 2100. Aging in India India has the second largest population in the world, after China. Because of the significant population growth of the past years, the age distribution remains skewed in favor of the younger age bracket. This tells a story of rapid population growth, but also of a lower life expectancy. Economic effects of a young population Many young people means that the Indian economy must support a large number of students, who demand education from the economy but cannot yet work. Educating the future workforce will be important, because the economy is growing as well and is one of the largest in the world. Failing to do this could lead to high youth unemployment and political consequences. However, a productive and young workforce could provide huge economic returns for India.

This statistic shows the median age of the population in Brazil from 1950 to 2100. The median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups; that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older. It is a single index that summarizes the age distribution of a population. In 2020, the median age of the Brazilian population was 32.7 years. Brazil as a developing nation The average age of the Brazil’s population has risen from a low of 16.8 years in 1965 to 32.4 years in 2020, a typical change in developing nations, and other demographic parameters support this trend: As of 2014, the share of children under 14 years of age stood at around 23.5 percent, a great improvement from earlier times. Since 2005, the fertility rate has also dropped significantly, but now it is even lower than the natural replacement rate at 1.78 children per woman. Over the same period of time, life expectancy has also risen to 74.4 years of age - higher than the average for developing nations. These changes typically happen as a result of developing countries becoming more modernized and economically diverse. Brazil’s economy had been getting significantly stronger and per capita GDP peaked in 2011 at a much higher value than the regional average for Latin America and the Caribbean. However, the Brazilian economy has reached a difficult point, and GDP per capita is expected to fall to as low as 7,447 U.S. dollars in 2016. As Brazil’s demographics are now similar to other developing countries, the economy has not been able to maintain a similar path to steady growth.