The spread between 10–year and two–year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.49 percent in June 2025. The 10–year minus two–year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000–2001, and the financial crisis of 2007–2008.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-08-21 about yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity was 0.55% in August of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity reached a record high of 2.91 in February of 2011 and a record low of -2.41 in March of 1980. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

As of December 30, 2024, ** economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of ***** percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with **** percent; and Russia with **** percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury (constant maturity) yields: Positive values may imply future growth, negative values may imply economic downturns.

As of April 16, 2025, the UK bond market displayed a positive spread of **** basis points between 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating long-term rates slightly ***** short-term ones. The 5-year versus 2-year spread and the 2-year versus 1-year spread also showed a ******** value, at **** and **** basis points, respectively.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T5YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-08-19 about yield curve, spread, maturity, Treasury, 5-year, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-08-21 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of April 16, 2025, the French bond market displayed a positive spread of ***** basis points between 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating long-term rates above short-term ones. The 5-year versus 2-year spread was also positive, at **** basis points. The 2-year versus 1-year spread, on the other hand, showed a negative value of **** basis points.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.79% on August 22, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.10 points and is 0.13 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2025-08-21 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of April 16, 2025, the Canadian bond market displayed a positive spread of **** basis points between 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating long-term rates above short-term ones. The 2-year versus 1-year sprea also showed a positive spread of **** basis points. Negative spreads indicate a (partially) inverted yield curve. This often signals investor pessimism about short-term economic prospects, as investors seek the relative safety of long-term bonds, pushing those yields down relative to shorter-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is typically interpreted as a potential indicator of economic slowdown or recession, as it reflects expectations of lower interest rates in the future to stimulate the economy.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS20) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-08-21 about 20-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield rose to 4.73% on August 21, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.16 points and is 0.77 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. UK 10 Year Gilt Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on United Kingdom 2Y Bond Yield eased to 3.95% on August 22, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.04 points and is 0.26 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for UK 2Y.