In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on US 5 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.91% on July 29, 2025, marking a 0.07 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points, though it remains 0.13 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 5 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.38% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.14 points and is 0.34 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 3 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.88% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.13 points, though it remains 0.09 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years data was reported at 3.753 % in Dec 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.745 % for Sep 2028. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.677 % from Mar 2013 (Median) to Dec 2028, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.958 % in Sep 2021 and a record low of 1.563 % in Sep 2016. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M009: Treasury Securities Yields: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.87% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points and is 0.59 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 3.96% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.18 points, though it remains 0.20 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Philippines Treasury Bond Rate: WAIR: 5 Year data was reported at 7.003 % pa in Nov 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 7.342 % pa for Oct 2018. Philippines Treasury Bond Rate: WAIR: 5 Year data is updated monthly, averaging 10.873 % pa from Jun 1995 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 124 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20.745 % pa in Jun 1998 and a record low of 0.000 % pa in Dec 2016. Philippines Treasury Bond Rate: WAIR: 5 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of the Treasury. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Philippines – Table PH.M005: Treasury Bill and Treasury Bond Rate.

The yield on UK 5 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.04% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points and is 0.27 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United Kingdom 5 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.45% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.04 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.09 points and is 0.34 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

United States US: Government Bond Yield: 3-5 Years data was reported at 1.477 % pa in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.006 % pa for 2016. United States US: Government Bond Yield: 3-5 Years data is updated yearly, averaging 5.138 % pa from Dec 1953 (Median) to 2017, with 65 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.439 % pa in 1981 and a record low of 0.382 % pa in 2012. United States US: Government Bond Yield: 3-5 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by International Monetary Fund. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.IMF.IFS: Treasury Bill and Government Securities Rates: Annual.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Key information about United States Short Term Interest Rate

• United States Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Treasury Bills: 3 Months was reported at 4.20 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 4.20 % pa in the previous month.
• US Short Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1954 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 15.52 % pa in Aug 1981 and a record low of -0.01 % pa in Sep 2015.
• Short Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Federal Reserve Board.

• In the latest reports, US Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: 10 Years was reported at 4.45 % pa in Feb 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Effective Federal Funds Rate) was set at 4.33 % pa in Feb 2025.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-07-30 about spread, interest rate, interest, 5-year, inflation, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

United States Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: MA: 5 Years data was reported at 3.000 % pa in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.894 % pa for Sep 2018. United States Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: MA: 5 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 5.091 % pa from Apr 1953 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 787 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.930 % pa in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.620 % pa in Jul 2012. United States Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: MA: 5 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M008: Treasury Securities Yields.

The yield on Australia 5 Year Bond Yield rose to 3.59% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.15 points, though it remains 0.16 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Australia 5 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 3 Month Bill Bond Yield eased to 4.34% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.92 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Month Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.