The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle the most important issue. The model provided accurate forecasts of the 2012 U.S. presidential election. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the model in situations where one issue clearly dominates the campaign, such as the state of the economy in the 2012 election. In addition, the model is particularly valuable if economic fundamentals disagree, a situation in which forecasts from traditional political economy models suggest high uncertainty. The model provides immediate feedback to political candidates and parties on the success of their campaign and can advise them on which issues to assign the highest priority.

We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to forecast the two-party popular vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when uncertainty about the election outcome is typically high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the most effective approaches to generating accurate forecasts.

The FiveThirtyEight NBA Forecasts Dataset is a comprehensive collection of data that has been carefully selected by the statistical analysis website FiveThirtyEight. It is accessible on GitHub. The National Basketball Association (NBA) team performance forecasts are the center of the collection, which offers useful data for researchers, analysts, and sports fans interested in investigating statistical predictions and trends within the NBA.

The complex forecasting methods used by FiveThirtyEight are used to produce a variety of features and metrics in this dataset. It includes predictions for team win-loss records, playoff probabilities, and even NBA championship probabilities at the season-level. Users can track team performance over time, acquire insights into predicted NBA season outcomes, and analyze success-related aspects by looking at these forecasts.

GitHub Link

FiveThirtyEight

Note: The dataset is publicly accessible on GitHub but may need to be handled and preprocessed properly before being used in particular analytical applications.

Dataset

This dataset was created by Kamal Das

Contents

Features of MRI scanning and prediction model construction.

The Ugandan berry market was finally on the rise to reach $33K in 2024, after five years of decline. Overall, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $201K in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

In 2024, the Japanese quinones market increased by 19% to $23M, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. In general, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level at $27M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The Myanmar's manostat market reduced to $5.9K in 2024, waning by -7.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption showed a abrupt slump. Manostat consumption peaked at $4.5M in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The Ghanian monophenols market skyrocketed to $258M in 2024, jumping by 19% against the previous year. In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Monophenols consumption peaked at $262M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

In 2020, the Kazakh cream market decreased by -X% to $X, falling for the fourth year in a row after six years of growth. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +X% over the period from 2007 to 2020; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 when the market value increased by X% against the previous year. Cream consumption peaked at $X in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2020, consumption failed to regain the momentum.

In 2024, the Kenyan caramel market increased by 4% to $62M for the first time since 2018, thus ending a five-year declining trend. Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $65M in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The Iraqi silicon market skyrocketed to $425K in 2024, increasing by 202% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption showed a perceptible increase. Silicon consumption peaked at $709K in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.