VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR Population (LU1)

FULL MEASURE NAME Population estimates

LAST UPDATED October 2019

DESCRIPTION Population is a measurement of the number of residents that live in a given geographical area, be it a neighborhood, city, county or region.

DATA SOURCES U.S Census Bureau: Decennial Census No link available (1960-1990) http://factfinder.census.gov (2000-2010)

California Department of Finance: Population and Housing Estimates Table E-6: County Population Estimates (1961-1969) Table E-4: Population Estimates for Counties and State (1971-1989) Table E-8: Historical Population and Housing Estimates (2001-2018) Table E-5: Population and Housing Estimates (2011-2019) http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/

U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census - via Longitudinal Tract Database Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences, Brown University Population Estimates (1970 - 2010) http://www.s4.brown.edu/us2010/index.htm

U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey 5-Year Population Estimates (2011-2017) http://factfinder.census.gov

U.S. Census Bureau: Intercensal Estimates Estimates of the Intercensal Population of Counties (1970-1979) Intercensal Estimates of the Resident Population (1980-1989) Population Estimates (1990-1999) Annual Estimates of the Population (2000-2009) Annual Estimates of the Population (2010-2017) No link available (1970-1989) http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro/totals/1990s/tables/MA-99-03b.txt http://www.census.gov/popest/data/historical/2000s/vintage_2009/metro.html https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

CONTACT INFORMATION vitalsigns.info@bayareametro.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator) All legal boundaries and names for Census geography (metropolitan statistical area, county, city, and tract) are as of January 1, 2010, released beginning November 30, 2010, by the U.S. Census Bureau. A Priority Development Area (PDA) is a locally-designated area with frequent transit service, where a jurisdiction has decided to concentrate most of its housing and jobs growth for development in the foreseeable future. PDA boundaries are current as of August 2019. For more information on PDA designation see http://gis.abag.ca.gov/website/PDAShowcase/.

Population estimates for Bay Area counties and cities are from the California Department of Finance, which are as of January 1st of each year. Population estimates for non-Bay Area regions are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Decennial Census years reflect population as of April 1st of each year whereas population estimates for intercensal estimates are as of July 1st of each year. Population estimates for Bay Area tracts are from the decennial Census (1970 -2010) and the American Community Survey (2008-2012 5-year rolling average; 2010-2014 5-year rolling average; 2013-2017 5-year rolling average). Estimates of population density for tracts use gross acres as the denominator.

Population estimates for Bay Area PDAs are from the decennial Census (1970 - 2010) and the American Community Survey (2006-2010 5 year rolling average; 2010-2014 5-year rolling average; 2013-2017 5-year rolling average). Population estimates for PDAs are derived from Census population counts at the tract level for 1970-1990 and at the block group level for 2000-2017. Population from either tracts or block groups are allocated to a PDA using an area ratio. For example, if a quarter of a Census block group lies with in a PDA, a quarter of its population will be allocated to that PDA. Tract-to-PDA and block group-to-PDA area ratios are calculated using gross acres. Estimates of population density for PDAs use gross acres as the denominator.

Annual population estimates for metropolitan areas outside the Bay Area are from the Census and are benchmarked to each decennial Census. The annual estimates in the 1990s were not updated to match the 2000 benchmark.

The following is a list of cities and towns by geographical area: Big Three: San Jose, San Francisco, Oakland Bayside: Alameda, Albany, Atherton, Belmont, Belvedere, Berkeley, Brisbane, Burlingame, Campbell, Colma, Corte Madera, Cupertino, Daly City, East Palo Alto, El Cerrito, Emeryville, Fairfax, Foster City, Fremont, Hayward, Hercules, Hillsborough, Larkspur, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Menlo Park, Mill Valley, Millbrae, Milpitas, Monte Sereno, Mountain View, Newark, Pacifica, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Pinole, Portola Valley, Redwood City, Richmond, Ross, San Anselmo, San Bruno, San Carlos, San Leandro, San Mateo, San Pablo, San Rafael, Santa Clara, Saratoga, Sausalito, South San Francisco, Sunnyvale, Tiburon, Union City, Vallejo, Woodside Inland, Delta and Coastal: American Canyon, Antioch, Benicia, Brentwood, Calistoga, Clayton, Cloverdale, Concord, Cotati, Danville, Dixon, Dublin, Fairfield, Gilroy, Half Moon Bay, Healdsburg, Lafayette, Livermore, Martinez, Moraga, Morgan Hill, Napa, Novato, Oakley, Orinda, Petaluma, Pittsburg, Pleasant Hill, Pleasanton, Rio Vista, Rohnert Park, San Ramon, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, Sonoma, St. Helena, Suisun City, Vacaville, Walnut Creek, Windsor, Yountville Unincorporated: all unincorporated towns

VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR Population (LU1)

FULL MEASURE NAME
Population estimates

LAST UPDATED
February 2023

DESCRIPTION
Population is a measurement of the number of residents that live in a given geographical area, be it a neighborhood, city, county or region.

DATA SOURCE
California Department of Finance: Population and Housing Estimates - http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/
Table E-6: County Population Estimates (1960-1970)
Table E-4: Population Estimates for Counties and State (1970-2021)
Table E-8: Historical Population and Housing Estimates (1990-2010)
Table E-5: Population and Housing Estimates (2010-2021)

Bay Area Jurisdiction Centroids (2020) - https://data.bayareametro.gov/Boundaries/Bay-Area-Jurisdiction-Centroids-2020-/56ar-t6bs
Computed using 2020 US Census TIGER boundaries

U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census Population Estimates - http://www.s4.brown.edu/us2010/index.htm- via Longitudinal Tract Database Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences, Brown University
1970-2020

U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey (5-year rolling average; tract) - https://data.census.gov/
2011-2021
Form B01003

Priority Development Areas (Plan Bay Area 2050) - https://opendata.mtc.ca.gov/datasets/MTC::priority-development-areas-plan-bay-area-2050/about

CONTACT INFORMATION
vitalsigns.info@bayareametro.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator)
All historical data reported for Census geographies (metropolitan areas, county, city and tract) use current legal boundaries and names. A Priority Development Area (PDA) is a locally-designated area with frequent transit service, where a jurisdiction has decided to concentrate most of its housing and jobs growth for development in the foreseeable future. PDA boundaries are current as of December 2022.

Population estimates for Bay Area counties and cities are from the California Department of Finance, which are as of January 1st of each year. Population estimates for non-Bay Area regions are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Decennial Census years reflect population as of April 1st of each year whereas population estimates for intercensal estimates are as of July 1st of each year. Population estimates for Bay Area tracts are from the decennial Census (1970-2020) and the American Community Survey (2011-2021 5-year rolling average). Estimates of population density for tracts use gross acres as the denominator.

Population estimates for Bay Area tracts and PDAs are from the decennial Census (1970-2020) and the American Community Survey (2011-2021 5-year rolling average). Population estimates for PDAs are allocated from tract-level Census population counts using an area ratio. For example, if a quarter of a Census tract lies with in a PDA, a quarter of its population will be allocated to that PDA. Estimates of population density for PDAs use gross acres as the denominator. Note that the population densities between PDAs reported in previous iterations of Vital Signs are mostly not comparable due to minor differences and an updated set of PDAs (previous iterations reported Plan Bay Area 2040 PDAs, whereas current iterations report Plan Bay Area 2050 PDAs).

The following is a list of cities and towns by geographical area:

Big Three: San Jose, San Francisco, Oakland

Bayside: Alameda, Albany, Atherton, Belmont, Belvedere, Berkeley, Brisbane, Burlingame, Campbell, Colma, Corte Madera, Cupertino, Daly City, East Palo Alto, El Cerrito, Emeryville, Fairfax, Foster City, Fremont, Hayward, Hercules, Hillsborough, Larkspur, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Menlo Park, Mill Valley, Millbrae, Milpitas, Monte Sereno, Mountain View, Newark, Pacifica, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Pinole, Portola Valley, Redwood City, Richmond, Ross, San Anselmo, San Bruno, San Carlos, San Leandro, San Mateo, San Pablo, San Rafael, Santa Clara, Saratoga, Sausalito, South San Francisco, Sunnyvale, Tiburon, Union City, Vallejo, Woodside

Inland, Delta and Coastal: American Canyon, Antioch, Benicia, Brentwood, Calistoga, Clayton, Cloverdale, Concord, Cotati, Danville, Dixon, Dublin, Fairfield, Gilroy, Half Moon Bay, Healdsburg, Lafayette, Livermore, Martinez, Moraga, Morgan Hill, Napa, Novato, Oakley, Orinda, Petaluma, Pittsburg, Pleasant Hill, Pleasanton, Rio Vista, Rohnert Park, San Ramon, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, Sonoma, St. Helena, Suisun City, Vacaville, Walnut Creek, Windsor, Yountville

Unincorporated: all unincorporated towns

On 6/28/2023, data on cases by vaccination status will be archived and will no longer update.

A. SUMMARY This dataset represents San Francisco COVID-19 positive confirmed cases by vaccination status over time, starting January 1, 2021. Cases are included on the date the positive test was collected (the specimen collection date). Cases are counted in three categories: (1) all cases; (2) unvaccinated cases; and (3) completed primary series cases.

1. All cases: Includes cases among all San Francisco residents regardless of vaccination status.

2. Unvaccinated cases: Cases are considered unvaccinated if their positive COVID-19 test was before receiving any vaccine. Cases that are not matched to a COVID-19 vaccination record are considered unvaccinated.

3. Completed primary series cases: Cases are considered completed primary series if their positive COVID-19 test was 14 days or more after they received their 2nd dose in a 2-dose COVID-19 series or the single dose of a 1-dose vaccine. These are also called “breakthrough cases.”

On September 12, 2021, a new case definition of COVID-19 was introduced that includes criteria for enumerating new infections after previous probable or confirmed infections (also known as reinfections). A reinfection is defined as a confirmed positive PCR lab test more than 90 days after a positive PCR or antigen test. The first reinfection case was identified on December 7, 2021.

Data is lagged by eight days, meaning the most recent specimen collection date included is eight days prior to today. All data updates daily as more information becomes available.

B. HOW THE DATASET IS CREATED Case information is based on confirmed positive laboratory tests reported to the City. The City then completes quality assurance and other data verification processes. Vaccination data comes from the California Immunization Registry (CAIR2). The California Department of Public Health runs CAIR2. Individual-level case and vaccination data are matched to identify cases by vaccination status in this dataset. Case records are matched to vaccine records using first name, last name, date of birth, phone number, and email address.

We include vaccination records from all nine Bay Area counties in order to improve matching rates. This allows us to identify breakthrough cases among people who moved to the City from other Bay Area counties after completing their vaccine series. Only cases among San Francisco residents are included.

C. UPDATE PROCESS Updates automatically at 08:00 AM Pacific Time each day.

D. HOW TO USE THIS DATASET Total San Francisco population estimates can be found in a view based on the San Francisco Population and Demographic Census dataset. These population estimates are from the 2016-2020 5-year American Community Survey (ACS). To identify total San Francisco population estimates, filter the view on “demographic_category_label” = “all ages”.

Population estimates by vaccination status are derived from our publicly reported vaccination counts, which can be found at COVID-19 Vaccinations Given to SF Residents Over Time.

The dataset includes new cases, 7-day average new cases, new case rates, 7-day average new case rates, percent of total cases, and 7-day average percent of total cases for each vaccination category.

New cases are the count of cases where the positive tests were collected on that specific specimen collection date. The 7-day rolling average shows the trend in new cases. The rolling average is calculated by averaging the new cases for a particular day with the prior 6 days.

New case rates are the count of new cases per 100,000 residents in each vaccination status group. The 7-day rolling average shows the trend in case rates. The rolling average is calculated by averaging the case rate for a part

California was the state with the highest resident population in the United States in 2024, with 39.43 million people. Wyoming had the lowest population with about 590,000 residents. Living the American Dream Ever since the opening of the West in the United States, California has represented the American Dream for both Americans and immigrants to the U.S. The warm weather, appeal of Hollywood and Silicon Valley, as well as cities that stick in the imagination such as San Francisco and Los Angeles, help to encourage people to move to California. Californian demographics California is an extremely diverse state, as no one ethnicity is in the majority. Additionally, it has the highest percentage of foreign-born residents in the United States. By 2040, the population of California is expected to increase by almost 10 million residents, which goes to show that its appeal, both in reality and the imagination, is going nowhere fast.

VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise (EN11)

FULL MEASURE NAME Share of population living in zones at risk from various sea level rise forecast scenarios

LAST UPDATED July 2017

DESCRIPTION Vulnerability to sea level rise refers to the share of the historical and current Bay Area population located in areas at risk from forecasted sea level rise over the coming decades. Given that there are varying forecasts for the heightened high tides (i.e., mean highest high water mark), projected sea level impacts are presented for six scenarios ranging from a one foot rise to six feet. A neighborhood is considered vulnerable to sea level rise when at least 10 percent of its land area is forecasted to be inundated by peak high tides in the coming years. The dataset includes at-risk population and population share data for the region, counties, and neighborhoods.

DATA SOURCE San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission 2017 Sea Level Rise Maps http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/project/regional-sea-level-rise-mapping-and-shoreline-analysis/

CONTACT INFORMATION vitalsigns.info@bayareametro.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator) Projected areas of inundation were developed by BCDC and NOAA at one-foot intervals ranging from one foot to four feet of sea level rise. Regional and local sea level rise analysis is based on data from BCDC’s ART (Adapting to Rising Tides) Bay Area Sea Level Rise and Mapping Project. This data reflects the most up-to-date and detailed sea level rise mapping for the Bay Area. Sea level rise analysis for metro areas is based on national sea level rise mapping from NOAA, which is best for metro-to-metro comparison. To determine the impacts on historical and current populations, inundation areas were overlaid on a U.S. Census shapefile of 2010 Census tracts using Census Bureau population data.

Because census tracts can extend beyond the coastline, the baseline scenario of zero feet was used to determine existing sea level coverage of census tracts. Sea level rise refers to the change from this level. The area of the tract was determined by measuring the component of the tract area not currently under water. This area, rather than the total tract area, was used as the denominator to determine the percentage of the census tract that is inundated under future sea level rise projection scenarios. When at least 10 percent of tract land area is inundated with a given sea level, its residents are considered to be affected by sea level rise.

For the purpose of this analysis, SLR scenarios were assumed not to reflect periodic inundation due to extreme weather events, which may lead to an even greater share of residents affected on a less frequent basis. Prior to the impacts from sea level rise, neighborhoods will experience temporary flooding from extreme weather events which can create significant damage to homes and neighborhoods. It should be noted that by directly reviewing maps and tools through the ART (Adapting to Rising Tides) program, regular inundation sea level rise and temporary flooding from extreme weather events are both available. More information on this approach is available here: http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/project/regional-sea-level-rise-mapping-and-shoreline-analysis/

Sea level rise analysis for metro areas reflects local, as opposed to global, sea level rise. Recent data has shown sea level is rising faster in the southeast region of the United States. Regional differences in the rate of sea level rise. More information and data related to the rate of sea level rise for different coastal regions is available here: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel-global-local.html