Thanks to a long-standing fuel subsidy, diesel fuel retail prices in Ecuador remained relatively stable for most of the past two decades. However, with the subsidy's elimination in 2020, prices started increasing and reached an average of *** U.S. dollars in 2022.

Gasoline retail prices in Ecuador remained relatively stable for most of the past two decades. Around 2018, however, gasoline prices started spiking and in 2022 one liter of regular gasoline was sold at **** U.S. dollars, while one liter of premium gasoline was sold at **** U.S. dollars. These were the highest retail prices for gasoline recorded in the South American country since the turn of the decade.

Diesel fuel prices of Ecuador remained constant at 0.29 US dollars per liter over the last 2 years. Fuel prices refer to the pump prices of the most widely sold grade of diesel fuel. Prices have been converted from the local currency to U.S. dollars.

Ecuador EC: Pump Price for Gasoline: USD per Liter data was reported at 0.610 USD in 2016. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.600 USD for 2014. Ecuador EC: Pump Price for Gasoline: USD per Liter data is updated yearly, averaging 0.520 USD from Dec 1992 (Median) to 2016, with 12 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.610 USD in 2016 and a record low of 0.310 USD in 2000. Ecuador EC: Pump Price for Gasoline: USD per Liter data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ecuador – Table EC.World Bank.WDI: Transportation. Fuel prices refer to the pump prices of the most widely sold grade of gasoline. Prices have been converted from the local currency to U.S. dollars.; ; German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ).; Median;

As of January 2025, the diesel price in Belize and Barbados were among the highest reported in Latin America and the Caribbean, averaging nearly **** and **** U.S. dollars per liter, respectively. Within South America, Argentina had the highest diesel price at the time, at **** dollars per liter, while Ecuador reported the lowest, with a liter of fuel costing an average of **** dollars.

0.29 (US dollars per liter) in 2016. Fuel prices refer to the pump prices of the most widely sold grade of diesel fuel. Prices have been converted from the local currency to U.S. dollars.

In 2023, shipments abroad of wood fuel decreased by -33.3% to 134 cubic meters, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth.

Ecuador EC: Pump Price for Diesel Fuel: USD per Liter data was reported at 0.290 USD in 2016. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.290 USD for 2014. Ecuador EC: Pump Price for Diesel Fuel: USD per Liter data is updated yearly, averaging 0.275 USD from Dec 1992 (Median) to 2016, with 12 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.390 USD in 2006 and a record low of 0.180 USD in 2000. Ecuador EC: Pump Price for Diesel Fuel: USD per Liter data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ecuador – Table EC.World Bank: Transportation. Fuel prices refer to the pump prices of the most widely sold grade of diesel fuel. Prices have been converted from the local currency to U.S. dollars.; ; German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ).; Median;

This repository contains the resources in our paper "When Do Fuel Price Reforms Trigger Protest? Diffuse versus Concentrated Losses in Subsidy Politics"

Ramon Villa-Cox, Juan F. Rumbea P, Luis A. Guamán L.

This paper examines how different types of fuel price reforms affect protest dynamics in Ecuador, a country with varied experiences in subsidy adjustments. Leveraging a novel methodological approach that combines administrative police data and protest indicators from ACLED and GDELT via neural networks and ARIMAX models, we construct a comprehensive daily protest-intensity series from 2018 to 2024. Using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, we test whether changes in diesel, regular gasoline, and premium gasoline prices Granger-cause shifts in protest activity. Our findings demonstrate that diesel price increases trigger substantial and persistent protests, whereas regular gasoline reforms generate moderate, short-lived responses, and premium gasoline reforms have no significant impact.

This repository is comprised of the datasets necessary for the replication of the results of the study.

1. Input Datasets: Contain raw datasets form third party sources

• Protest\protestas_original.csv: Original protest series with missing values. This dataset contains the original daily protest records with missing values. The data is sourced from the National Police of Ecuador, documenting instances of people mobilizing in public spaces. It reflects direct administrative records of collective actions, providing a ground-truth benchmark for validation and comparison with alternative protest measures derived from media and event-based sources.
• GDELT\RSU_index.csv: GDELT-derived indices. This dataset contains indices derived from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT), constructed using the methodological framework proposed by Barrett et al. (2022). The RSU index aggregates signals of unrest, stability, and urgency as reported in global media coverage, offering a media-based proxy to detect periods of social tension and protest activity.
• ACLED\acled_final_new.csv: Indicators built from ACLED protest/violence events.
• Gasoline_Pump_Prices\Precios_Final.csv: Ecuador's daily fuel prices (Diesel, Regular, Premium).
• Gasoline_Pump_Prices\Precios_USA_diario_act.csv: USA's average daily fuel prices (Diesel, Mid-grade, Premium).
• Gasoline_Pump_Prices\WTI_final_act: International oil prices (WTI)

2. Intermediate Datasets: Datasets that contain intermediate results

• Protest\Protesters Imputation - Tranche 2\protestas_imputadas_personas.csv: Protest series constructed by averaging ARIMAX and LSTM imputed values for the second segment and combining them with the original protest series.
• Protest\personas_imputada_final.csv: Final version of the imputed protest series, averaged from ARIMAX and LSTM results.
• VAR_data\df_var: The time series dataframe constructed in Var_Vecm.R, containing:
  o Diesel_Gasolinera
  o Eco_Extra_Gasolinera (Regular)
  o Super_Gasolinera (Premium)
  o final_imputation (Protests)

The Ecuadorian wood fuel market contracted slightly to $730M in 2024, remaining constant against the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Wood fuel consumption peaked at $837M in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is an important energy source in the residential sector. This fuel is frequently used in by households for cooking and heating. Nevertheless, prices vary significantly across countries. In 2020, households in Chile paid an average of **** U.S. dollars per kilogram. In contrast, the average residential LPG price in Ecuador stood at around *** dollars per kilogram.

In December 2024, the average fuel filter import price amounted to $2.5 per unit, rising by 22% against the previous month.

Ecuador Consumer Price Index (CPI): HW: Other Related Services to Housing (OR) data was reported at 114.763 2014=100 in Jun 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 114.763 2014=100 for May 2018. Ecuador Consumer Price Index (CPI): HW: Other Related Services to Housing (OR) data is updated monthly, averaging 111.149 2014=100 from Jan 2015 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 42 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 114.763 2014=100 in Jun 2018 and a record low of 102.807 2014=100 in Jan 2015. Ecuador Consumer Price Index (CPI): HW: Other Related Services to Housing (OR) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Institute of Statistics and Census. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ecuador – Table EC.I006: Consumer Price Index: 2014=100: Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels.

Ecuador's gasoline index decreased between 2019 and 2024. In the latter year, an average monthly net salary allowed drivers to purchase *** liters of gasoline. This was the second-lowest figure in the period of consideration.

Gasoline prices increased worldwide in the first half of 2022, a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the tightening of fossil fuels market. In Latin America, Panama reported the largest impact, with the average price per liter increasing by ** percent between January and June 2022. Ecuador and Colombia were the only two countries displayed which registered a decline in prices. However in 2023 the average price per liter has remained relatively stable. An opposite trend was observed in 2020, when gasoline prices decreased in Latin American countries because of the travelling restrictions brought in by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ecuador Consumer Price Index (CPI): Transport: OE: FL: FE: Super Petrol data was reported at 101.814 2004=100 in Dec 2014. This records a decrease from the previous number of 101.823 2004=100 for Nov 2014. Ecuador Consumer Price Index (CPI): Transport: OE: FL: FE: Super Petrol data is updated monthly, averaging 100.714 2004=100 from Jan 2005 (Median) to Dec 2014, with 120 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 102.068 2004=100 in Jun 2014 and a record low of 99.452 2004=100 in Apr 2009. Ecuador Consumer Price Index (CPI): Transport: OE: FL: FE: Super Petrol data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Institute of Statistics and Census. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ecuador – Table EC.I016: Consumer Price Index: 2004=100.

Statistics illustrates consumption, production, prices, and trade of Wood Fuel in Ecuador from Jan 2019 to Jul 2025.

Statistics illustrates consumption, production, prices, and trade of Wood Fuel in Ecuador from 2007 to 2024.

579 Global export shipment records of Fuel with prices, volume & current Buyer's suppliers relationships based on actual Global export trade database.

716 Global import shipment records of Fuel with prices, volume & current Buyer's suppliers relationships based on actual Global export trade database.