In the United States, interest rates for all mortgage types started to increase in 2021. This was due to the Federal Reserve introducing a series of hikes in the federal funds rate to contain the rising inflation. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the 30-year fixed rate rose slightly, to **** percent. Despite the increase, the rate remained below the peak of **** percent in the same quarter a year ago. Why have U.S. home sales decreased? Cheaper mortgages normally encourage consumers to buy homes, while higher borrowing costs have the opposite effect. As interest rates increased in 2022, the number of existing homes sold plummeted. Soaring house prices over the past 10 years have further affected housing affordability. Between 2013 and 2023, the median price of an existing single-family home risen by about ** percent. On the other hand, the median weekly earnings have risen much slower. Comparing mortgage terms and rates Between 2008 and 2023, the average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States stood between **** and **** percent. Over the same period, a 30-year mortgage term averaged a fixed-rate of between **** and **** percent. Rates on 15-year loan terms are lower to encourage a quicker repayment, which helps to improve a homeowner’s equity.

House prices grew year-on-year in most states in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2025. Hawaii was the only exception, with a decline of **** percent. The annual appreciation for single-family housing in the U.S. was **** percent, while in Rhode Island—the state where homes appreciated the most—the increase was ******percent. How have home prices developed in recent years? House price growth in the U.S. has been going strong for years. In 2025, the median sales price of a single-family home exceeded ******* U.S. dollars, up from ******* U.S. dollars five years ago. One of the factors driving house prices was the cost of credit. The record-low federal funds effective rate allowed mortgage lenders to set mortgage interest rates as low as *** percent. With interest rates on the rise, home buying has also slowed, causing fluctuations in house prices. Why are house prices growing? Many markets in the U.S. are overheated because supply has not been able to keep up with demand. How many homes enter the housing market depends on the construction output, whereas the availability of existing homes for purchase depends on many other factors, such as the willingness of owners to sell. Furthermore, growing investor appetite in the housing sector means that prospective homebuyers have some extra competition to worry about. In certain metros, for example, the share of homes bought by investors exceeded ** percent in 2025.

30 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States decreased to 6.26 percent in September 18 from 6.35 percent in the previous week. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 30 Year Mortgage Rate.

After a period of rapid increase, house price growth in the UK has moderated. In 2025, house prices are forecast to increase by ****percent. Between 2025 and 2029, the average house price growth is projected at *** percent. According to the source, home building is expected to increase slightly in this period, fueling home buying. On the other hand, higher borrowing costs despite recent easing of mortgage rates and affordability challenges may continue to suppress transaction activity. Historical house price growth in the UK House prices rose steadily between 2015 and 2020, despite minor fluctuations. In the following two years, prices soared, leading to the house price index jumping by about 20 percent. As the market stood in April 2025, the average price for a home stood at approximately ******* British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next five years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2025 and slow slightly until 2029. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Outer London slightly outperforming Central London.

The U.S. housing market continues to evolve, with the median price for existing homes forecast to fall to ******* U.S. dollars by 2027. This projection comes after a period of significant growth and recent fluctuations, reflecting the complex interplay of economic factors affecting the real estate sector. The rising costs have not only impacted home prices but also down payments, with the median down payment more than doubling since 2012. Regional variations in housing costs Home prices and down payments vary dramatically across the United States. While the national median down payment stood at approximately ****** U.S. dollars in early 2024, homebuyers in states like California, Massachusetts, and Hawaii faced down payments exceeding ****** U.S. dollars. This disparity highlights the challenges of homeownership in high-cost markets and underscores the importance of location in determining housing affordability. Market dynamics and future outlook The housing market has shown signs of cooling after years of rapid growth, with a modest price increase of *** percent in 2024. This slowdown can be attributed in part to rising mortgage rates, which have tempered demand. Despite these challenges, most states continued to see year-over-year price growth in 2025, with Rhode Island and West Virginia leading the packby home appreciation. As the market adjusts to new economic realities, potential homebuyers and investors alike will be watching closely for signs of stabilization or renewed growth in the coming years.

Home builders construct single-family homes while also remodeling houses and other residential buildings. Perennially low housing stock has driven new housing development throughout the current period. Still, from early 2022 through mid-2024, the Federal Reserve rose or maintained interest rates up from historic lows; these rate hikes sent housing starts into a steady decline. Loans have become less accessible, with mortgage rates increasing, discouraging property developers from breaking ground on more residential projects. Even as the Federal Reserve has cut rates since mid-2024, mortgage rates, which are only indirectly impacted by the federal funds rate, have largely increased. Even as housing starts have fallen over recent years, house prices have seen strong growth, allowing builders to see growth. Overall, industry revenue is set to push up at a CAGR of 2.9% to $166.9 billion over the five years through 2025, including a 1.6% increase in 2025 alone. Spikes in the 30-year conventional mortgage rate reduced the number of projects available for home builders. Inflationary concerns have also led more consumers to rent instead of buy. A bright spot has been state and federal projects like affordable housing programs in large metropolitan cities. Home builders also cut expenses and raised profit by hiring subcontractors. The basic underlying need for more housing has remained strong throughout the period. Interest rates are set to gradually fall over the coming years, while the nation will remain in its housing shortage, driving growth for home builders. Home builders will aim to differentiate themselves by building homes that meet sustainability standards to achieve Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certification. Government programs and households will continue to be a source of income for many homebuilders. The Trump administration has proposed using federal lands for housing development but is also set to drive up costs for builders through its tariff policies. Overall, revenue is set to climb at a CAGR of 1.8% to reach $182.8 in 2030.

The industry is composed of non-depository institutions that conduct primary and secondary market lending. Operators in this industry include government agencies in addition to non-agency issuers of mortgage-related securities. Through 2025, rising per capita disposable income and low levels of unemployment helped fuel the increase in primary and secondary market sales of collateralized debt. Nonetheless, due to the sharp contraction in economic activity at the onset of the period, revenue gains were limited, but climbed in the latter part of the period as the economy has normalized. Interest rates climbed significantly to tackle significant inflationary pressures, which increased borrowing costs, hindering loan volumes but increasing interest income for each loan. However, the Fed cut interest rates in 2024 and is anticipated to cut rates in the latter part of the current year, reducing borrowing costs and providing a boost to loan volumes. Overall, these trends, along with volatility in the real estate market, have caused revenue to slump at a CAGR of 1.3% to $488.9 billion over the past five years, including an expected decline of 0.1% in 2025 alone. The high interest rate environment has hindered real estate loan demand but increased interest income, boosting profit to 15.6% of revenue in the current year. Higher access to credit and higher disposable income have fueled primary market lending over much of the period, increasing the variety and volume of loans to be securitized and sold in secondary markets. An additional boon for institutions has been an increase in interest rates, which raised interest income as the spread between short- and long-term interest rates increased. These macroeconomic factors, combined with changing risk appetite and regulation in the secondary markets, have resurrected collateralized debt trading since the middle of the period. Although institutions are poised to benefit from strong economic growth, inflationary pressures easing and the decline in the 30-year conventional mortgage rate, the rate of homeownership is still expected to fall but at a slower pace compared to the current period. Shaky demand from commercial banking and uncertainty surrounding inflationary pressures will influence institutions' decisions on whether or not to sell mortgage-backed securities and commercial loans to secondary markets. These trends are expected to cause revenue to decline at a CAGR of 1.0% to $465.4 billion over the five years to 2030.

Mortgage interest rates in Europe soared in 2022 and remained elevated in the following two years. In many countries, this resulted in mortgage interest rates across the region more than doubling. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the average mortgage interest rate in the UK stood at *** percent. Belgium had the lowest rate, at **** percent, while Poland had the highest, at *** percent. Why did mortgage interest rates increase? Mortgage rates have risen as a result of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate increase. The ECB increased its interest rates to tackle inflation. As inflation calms, the ECB is expected to cut rates, which allows mortgage lenders to reduce mortgage interest rates. What is the impact of interest rates on home buying? Lower interest rates make taking out a housing loan more affordable, and thus, encourage home buying. That can be seen in many countries across Europe: In France, the number of residential properties sold rose in the years leading up to 2021, and fell as interest rates increased. The number of houses sold in the UK followed a similar trend.

After a period of gradual decline, the average annual rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States rose to **** percent in 2023, up from the record-low **** percent in 2021. In 2024, interest rates declined slightly. The rate for 15-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend. This was a result of the Federal Reserve increasing the bank rate - a measure introduced to tackle the rising inflation. U.S. home prices going through the roof Mortgage rates have a strong impact on the market – the lower the rate, the lower the loan repayment. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreasing after the Great Recession has stimulated the market and boosted home sales. Another problem consumers face is the fact that house prices are rising at an unaffordable level. The median sales price of a new home sold surged in 2021, while the median weekly earnings of a full-time employee maintained a more moderate increase. What are the differences between 15-year and 30-year mortgages? Two of the most popular loan terms available to homebuyers are the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The 30-year option appeals to more consumers because the repayment is spread out over 30 years, meaning the monthly payments are lower. Consumers choosing the 15-year option will have to pay higher monthly payments but benefit from lower interest rates.

Loan administration, check cashing and other services endured a volatile landscape amid economic instability, elevated interest rates and sharp swings in core markets. While loan administration services remain a cornerstone to ensure consumers are compliant with repayment terms, considerable volatility amid inflationary spikes altered consumers’ purchasing behaviors. Rising interest rates provided greater revenue growth via higher mortgage and deposit fee revenue streams, although it also harmed individual customers and smaller businesses’ propensity to repay existing mortgages and auto loans. Nonetheless, continuous growth in the national housing market, as exemplified by the 65.2% spike in demand from real estate loans and collateralized debt, provided further boosts toward oversight of mortgages. Steady inclines in national housing prices created more favorable mortgage terms for lenders, bolstering loan service demand. Revenue grew at a CAGR of 1.6% to an estimated $26.8 billion over the past five years, including an anticipated 1.5% boost in 2025 alone. Inclining competition from digital payment services and online money transfer systems has undermined large-scale growth prospects. Check cashing servicers have been particularly harmed by digital proliferation, as prominent platforms such as PayPal, Zelle and Venmo continue to undermine client interest toward the industry. However, the technological pivot is also providing innovative opportunities, particularly among larger banks and loan service administrators looking to minimize dependence on manual labor and bolster profit. Moving forward, the industry is poised to continue growing at a steady pace, albeit mired by competitive threats. Anticipated growth in per capita disposable income and strong consumer confidence will sustain lending activity and demand for loan servicing, as customers will be more willing to take on long-term debts. The potential for interest rate cuts will further incentivize new loan procurement, although this could also harm the industry via reduced returns on mortgage interest and deposit fees. Technological expansion and the prevalent threat of digital payment platforms will remain the biggest barrier to expansive growth, although traditional brick-and-mortar services will remain popular across local markets where client trust will be integral. Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.0% to an estimated $29.6 billion through the end of 2030.

Evaluate Canada’s best mortgage rates in one place. RATESDOTCA’s Rate Matrix lets you compare pricing for all key mortgage types and terms. Rates are based on an average mortgage of $300,000

The number of U.S. home sales in the United States declined in 2024, after soaring in 2021. A total of four million transactions of existing homes, including single-family, condo, and co-ops, were completed in 2024, down from 6.12 million in 2021. According to the forecast, the housing market is forecast to head for recovery in 2025, despite transaction volumes expected to remain below the long-term average. Why have home sales declined? The housing boom during the coronavirus pandemic has demonstrated that being a homeowner is still an integral part of the American dream. Nevertheless, sentiment declined in the second half of 2022 and Americans across all generations agreed that the time was not right to buy a home. A combination of factors has led to house prices rocketing and making homeownership unaffordable for the average buyer. A survey among owners and renters found that the high home prices and unfavorable economic conditions were the two main barriers to making a home purchase. People who would like to purchase their own home need to save up a deposit, have a good credit score, and a steady and sufficient income to be approved for a mortgage. In 2022, mortgage rates experienced the most aggressive increase in history, making the total cost of homeownership substantially higher. Are U.S. home prices expected to fall? The median sales price of existing homes stood at 413,000 U.S. dollars in 2024 and was forecast to increase slightly until 2026. The development of the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index shows that home prices experienced seven consecutive months of decline between June 2022 and January 2023, but this trend reversed in the following months. Despite mild fluctuations throughout the year, home prices in many metros are forecast to continue to grow, albeit at a much slower rate.

Lenders Mortgage Insurance Market Outlook

The global lenders mortgage insurance market size was valued at $XX billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $XX billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of X.X% during the forecast period. The market growth is driven by several key factors, including the increasing demand for home ownership, rising property prices, and stringent lending regulations that mandate mortgage insurance for high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios.

A primary growth factor in the lenders mortgage insurance market is the escalating property prices worldwide. As property prices continue to rise, the need for mortgage insurance becomes more pronounced to mitigate the risk for lenders. This is particularly significant in urban areas where real estate prices are skyrocketing, making it challenging for buyers to provide substantial down payments. In such scenarios, lenders mortgage insurance acts as a safety net, enabling borrowers to secure loans with lower down payments, thus driving market growth.

Another growth driver is the increasing awareness and adoption of mortgage insurance products among first-time home buyers. The growing financial literacy and the availability of tailored mortgage insurance solutions have made it easier for first-time buyers to enter the housing market. Moreover, government initiatives and incentives aimed at promoting home ownership are further propelling the demand for lenders mortgage insurance. These initiatives often include favorable lending terms that require mortgage insurance, thereby boosting the market.

Moreover, advancements in financial technology are revolutionizing the lenders mortgage insurance market. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the underwriting process is enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of risk assessment. Fintech innovations are also enabling seamless digital platforms for the distribution and management of mortgage insurance products, making it more accessible to a broader audience. These technological advancements are expected to play a crucial role in the market's expansion over the forecast period.

Regionally, North America holds a substantial share of the lenders mortgage insurance market due to the high demand for housing and well-established mortgage practices. The U.S., in particular, is a significant contributor, with its robust real estate market and stringent lending regulations. Europe is also a notable market, driven by the rising property prices in urban centers and the increasing adoption of mortgage insurance products. The Asia Pacific region is anticipated to witness the highest growth rate, fueled by rapid urbanization, economic development, and a burgeoning middle class aspiring for home ownership.

Coverage Type Analysis

The lenders mortgage insurance market is segmented by coverage type into Borrower-Paid Mortgage Insurance (BPMI), Lender-Paid Mortgage Insurance (LPMI), Split Premium Mortgage Insurance, and Single Premium Mortgage Insurance. Borrower-Paid Mortgage Insurance (BPMI) is a significant segment where the borrower pays the insurance premiums, typically included in their monthly mortgage payments. This type of insurance provides flexibility to borrowers, as they can cancel the insurance once they achieve a certain amount of home equity. The demand for BPMI is substantial due to its straightforward premium structure and ease of cancellation.

Lender-Paid Mortgage Insurance (LPMI), on the other hand, is where the lender pays the mortgage insurance premium upfront and incorporates the cost into the loan interest rate. This option can be appealing to borrowers who prefer to have a lower monthly mortgage payment. However, since the cost is integrated into the interest rate, the borrower ends up paying more over the life of the loan. Despite this, LPMI is gaining traction, particularly among borrowers looking for lower monthly outflows.

Split Premium Mortgage Insurance is a hybrid approach where the borrower pays part of the insurance premium upfront and the remainder in monthly installments. This structure reduces the monthly payment burden while also lowering the overall cost compared to BPMI. Split Premium Mortgage Insurance is advantageous for borrowers who have some upfront capital but still want to benefit from reduced monthly payments. This segment is growing as it offers a balanced approach to premium payments.

Single Premium Mortgage Insurance involves a one-time, upfront payment of the entire mortgage insurance premium. This eliminates the need

The real estate sales and brokerage industry is navigating a complex landscape with high mortgage rates and dropping home sales. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise the benchmark interest rate 11 times across 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation led to a significant climb in mortgage rates, dampening buyer demand and affordability. This gain has deterred homeowners from selling, leading to low housing inventory. Despite the rate cuts that came in 2024, mortgage rates remain high, with the typical 30-year fixed mortgage staying above 6.5%. Existing home sales also hit a near 30-year low in 2024, mainly because of high home prices and tight supply. Amid these challenges, the real estate market has seen a surge in home values, propelling industry growth. This growth greatly benefits real estate agents and brokerages, who often base their commissions on the house's selling price. Despite the high vacancy rates, the office market also shows signs of picking up, primarily because of demand for high-quality assets such as Class A office spaces and modern buildings. Increased competitive pressure necessitates more aggressive marketing tactics to secure listings and attract sellers. Nonetheless, because of the industry's robust performance from 2020 to 2021, revenue has climbed at a CAGR of 0.8% over the past five years, reaching $241.3 billion in 2025. 2025 revenue will climb an estimated 1.0% as home price appreciation and a rebound in commercial sales volume will fuel tepid growth. The higher-for-longer interest rate environment is expected to slow the industry's growth. The high mortgage rates and escalating home prices will likely price out many potential home buyers from the market, forcing customers to rent or live in multifamily complexes. The limited new office construction will stimulate office building sales and intensify brokerage activity. The housing stock situation is expected to remain tight, with homeowners staying in their homes for longer and contributing to home price appreciation. Amid these conditions, a likely shift toward new construction and build-to-rent properties for agents and brokers is anticipated. Increased competition in the form of market saturation and disruption from online platforms will inhibit profit growth. Overall, industry revenue will gain at a CAGR of 2.3% to reach $270.8 billion in 2030.

Companies in the Residential Estate Agents industry act as intermediaries when a residential property is bought, sold, rented or leased in the UK. Typically, estate agents earn income via fixed flat rates or commissions and transaction fees related to the selling price charged to interested parties. Estate agents also provide clients with value-added ancillary services through which they can earn sufficient income, including specialist advisory services, contract appraisals, property valuation and escrow services. Over the five years through 2024-25, residential real estate agent’s is expected to contract at a compound annual rate of 4.7% to £5.8 billion. In 2020-21, a temporary hiatus in housing market activity during the spring lockdown left a gap in estate agents' income statements, made worse by unfavourable tax reform for buy-to-let property investors. Activity rebounded over 2021-22 as the release of pent-up demand and stimulatory policies restored and elevated property transaction levels. However, over 2023-24, revenue tanked by 14.4% as successive rises in the bank rate, eventually landing at 5.25% in August 2023, increased mortgage rates across the UK and significantly reduced the market for residential property transactions and estate agent revenue. In 2024-25, revenue is expected to inch upwards by 0.7%, as interest rates fell to 5% in August 2024; interest rates are forecast to drop at least once more in 2024-25, making borrowing more affordable and increasing transaction volumes. According to HMRC, there were 90,210 UK residential transactions in August 2024, a 5% increase on August 2023. There is optimism as household disposable incomes and consumer confidence climb, meaning a bounce back in the housing market is imminent. Over the five years through 2029-30, residential real estate agent’s revenue is expected to expand at a compound annual rate of 1.4% to £6.2 billion. Beyond an envisaged recovery phase, competitive pressures from the proliferation of online-only and hybrid estate agents will intensify, challenging traditional agencies. Due to increasing council taxes on second homes, landlords may sell some of their portfolios, increasing the supply of houses to be transacted and boosting revenue. House prices are forecast to trend upwards in the medium term, increasing transaction commissions and benefitting estate agents.

The Latin American home mortgage finance market exhibits steady growth, projected to reach a market size of $XX million in 2025, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.00% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is fueled by several key factors. Increasing urbanization and a burgeoning middle class are driving demand for homeownership across the region. Government initiatives aimed at improving access to affordable housing, such as subsidized mortgages and reduced interest rates, further stimulate market expansion. Additionally, the development of more sophisticated financial products and improved lending practices by major players like Caixa Economica Federal, Banco do Brasil, Itaú, Bradesco, and Santander, contribute to market expansion. However, economic instability in certain Latin American countries, fluctuating interest rates, and regulatory hurdles remain significant challenges that could potentially hinder growth. The competitive landscape is dominated by established national and international banks, each vying for market share through competitive interest rates, diverse mortgage products, and enhanced digital services. Despite the presence of these major players, opportunities exist for smaller lenders and fintech companies to leverage technological advancements and target niche markets within the region. The market segmentation is diverse, reflecting varying housing costs and income levels across the countries within Latin America. Growth will likely be uneven across the region, with more stable economies experiencing higher growth rates than those facing political or economic uncertainty. Future growth will depend on macroeconomic stability, continued government support for homeownership, and the ability of financial institutions to adapt to the evolving needs of borrowers. Notable trends are: Increase in Economic Growth and GDP per capita.

The Indian home mortgage finance market is experiencing robust growth, fueled by a burgeoning middle class, increasing urbanization, and supportive government policies aimed at affordable housing. With a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 7% from 2019-2033, the market presents significant opportunities for investors and lenders. The market is segmented by source (banks and Housing Finance Companies or HFCs), interest rate type (fixed and floating), and loan tenure (ranging from less than 5 years to over 25 years). While banks hold a substantial market share, HFCs are playing an increasingly important role, particularly in catering to specific segments and underserved populations. The demand for longer-tenure loans is also growing, reflecting evolving consumer preferences and affordability considerations. Key drivers include government initiatives promoting homeownership, reduced interest rates during certain periods, and the ongoing expansion of the organized financial sector. However, challenges remain, including economic fluctuations, credit risk assessment, and potential regulatory changes that may impact lending practices. The competitive landscape involves both large established players like HDFC, LIC Housing Finance, and Indiabulls Housing Finance, as well as smaller, more niche players catering to specific geographic regions or customer demographics. The market's continued expansion is largely contingent upon sustained economic growth and the continued accessibility of credit. The forecast for the Indian home mortgage finance market indicates strong growth through 2033, driven by favorable demographics and sustained infrastructure development. The ongoing development of the digital lending space offers further opportunities for innovation and market penetration, streamlining processes and reaching a wider range of borrowers. Effective risk management strategies will be crucial for lenders navigating the evolving market dynamics. Government policies aimed at improving financial inclusion and affordable housing remain crucial for long-term growth. Analyzing market segments, such as the rising popularity of fixed-rate mortgages against the inherent volatility of floating-rate mortgages, offers valuable insight into changing consumer behavior and lender strategies. The strategic focus on various tenure options (5 years, 6-10 years, 11-24 years, 25-30 years) showcases the diverse needs and financial planning horizons of Indian homebuyers. Overall, the Indian home mortgage market is poised for considerable expansion, provided economic conditions remain stable and government support continues. Recent developments include: November 2022: Tata Capital Housing Finance, a Tata Capital subsidiary, intends to push into the home loan market significantly. To do so, it is looking for the capital of INR 3,000 crore from the National Housing Bank and intends to raise INR 1,000 crore through bonds. Both retail and real estate developers are expected to be eligible for financing from the organization., October 2022: Private sector lender HDFC Bank will complete its planned merger with Housing Development Finance Corp. Ltd by the first quarter of FY24 instead of the original target of the third quarter.. Notable trends are: Availability of Affordable Housing in India is Driving the Market Growth.

PDLB is a triple whammy on those three themes.ECIP capital: PDLB received $225M of ECIP capital, and the regulators assigned them the lowest possible dividend (0.5%) on this capital for the first year of payments (announced in June). If we assume PDLB continues to pay 0.5% on this preferred and they have a cost of preferred equity of 10%, then we can calculate the value of this $225M liability as just $11M, with the rest a write-up to equity.This adjustment brings P/TBV from 82% to 46%.Thrift conversion dynamics: Ponce converted from a mutual holding company to a stock holding company in January 2022 (second step). PDLB is an unprofitable and under-levered bank. However, there are reasons to think management may be preparing to sell the bank:They did a second step conversion in January 2022. Only the optionality to sell the bank would motivate this step, as the bank didn’t need the capital, and the conversion increases management’s susceptibility to activist investors. This is highly praised by the best stock analysis websites.Management is old: 6/8 members are in their 70s or 80s (including the CEO and Chairman).Together, the Directors and Officers own >2M shares of stock, worth ~$20M. The CEO owns 580,000 shares, worth ~$6M. His total compensation is ~$1.3M (and he'll need to retire soon anyway). Additionally, the CEO and directors will receive a final tranche of ESOP shares in December 2024 that will boost their holdings another ~40%.Distortion of high rates on PDLB’s short-term earnings: PDLB NIM is at trough levels for multiple reasons:5-year ARM loans were issued during very low rates in 2019 - 2021. 5-year treasury yields were between 0.2% and 1.4% during this period, and grew to >4% in September 2022 (where they’ve been ever since). Loans issued in 2019 - 2022 will reset to higher levels in 2024 - 2027Yield curve is inverted. Ponce lends based on the long end of the curve (five-year rates at 4.1%) and funds on the short-end of the curve (brokered deposits come in at ~5.3%). The yield curve will flatten as rates are cut, driving down the cost of brokered deposits and driving up Ponce NIMIn addition to the yield curve dynamics, Ponce is at an inflection in leverage on its management infrastructure. It built out management capabilities for a much larger bank, and is currently seeing decreasing Q/Q non-interest cost, while assets and interest income are growing nicely.IR told me that cost pressures were peaking in 2023, and this has already become true in 1H 2024 results.Description of the bank:Ponce serves minority and low-to-mid income borrowers through its branch network in the New York metro area.Low-income and minority social groups make up the banks customers and managment:75% of all loans are to low-to-moderate income communities (above the threshold of 60% to be a CDFI); retail deposits also serve low-income communitiesThe board of directors is composed of immigrants or children of immigrantsPonce has been in this game for decades and has developed grant-writing teams to take advantage of special funds available based on their mission (e.g. $4.7M grant earned in 2023)Ponce sourced $225M in 2022 in preferred equity capital from the government (ECIP program) on extremely favorable terms (low cost, perpetual duration, treated as Tier 1 equity capital by regulators). They recently reported that for the first year (and I’d be in subsequent years), they’ll pay the lowest possible dividend of 0.5% (the range is up to 2% for the program). This number is inline with the one quoted by the best stock websites.Ponce also receives low-cost corporate deposits that allow other banks to get Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) credit with regulators. These deposits are insured and sticky, and often ~200bps or more below market interest rates.Outside of the ECIP equity and the small-but-growing CRA corporate deposits, the bank doesn’t have a good deposit franchise. The blended total cost of interest-bearing liabilities in 2023 is 4.0%.On the asset side, Ponce’s focus on mortgage lending to lower-income communities is a good niche (and composes 99% of lending). IR explained to me that the board of directors is composed of engaged real estate investors who know intimately the relevant neighborhoods and are involved in credit underwriting. Ponce lends 5/1 and 5/5 adjustable-rate mortgages against single-family (27% of loans), multifamily (30% of loans), and non-residential (18% of loans). Construction (23% of loans) properties are 36-month fixed-rate loans. LTVs on all these segments are ~55% and debt service coverage ratio >1.25x. In the current environment, Ponce is issuing loans at ~9% yield that are likely to experience very low levels of credit losses (my expectation would be 0 - 0.1% per year in annual credit cost). Given 5-year rates (~4%), lending at 9% is very favorable, and likely reflects decreasing competitive intensity in the wake of recent banking turmoil.I’m comfortable projecting very low credit costs because losses from the mortgage portfolio have been substantially zero going back to 2016 and very low going back to 2012 (the first year of available data). Charge-offs seemed to peak in 2013 at 0.7% of outstanding loans (charge-off happen years after delinquencies, so the timing seems reasonable following ‘08/’09). Given the peak of 0.7% and the more common experience of 0.0% charge-offs in Ponce’s mortgages, I’m therefore comfortable mostly ignoring credit cost.The most concerning area with respect to credit costs is the construction book. Although they scaled the construction business in 2023, it's not a new business for PDLB (they've been doing construction loans on the order of ~100M per year since 2017, and on a smaller scale before that). PDLB has not recorded any charge offs on the construction business going back at least 7 years. PDLB had no new delinquencies on this book in 2023 (I.e. from loans made in 2020). They did have some DQNs in 2022, but these have been mostly worked out without charge offs.Regarding the timing of the ramp up in recent quarters, it may be just right: if investors/banks are concerned about charge offs today, that's related to vintages from 2020/2021 (which were also loans issued at much lower rates and might not roll over smoothly). If others are pulling back, that's the time to deploy more capital into the business.The bank is currently very under-leveraged: Tier-1 equity / RWA is 21% (vs. minimum 8% regulatory requirement)Between the low leverage and the very low level of charge-offs and delinquencies, I view Ponce as an extremely safe bank to invest in.Investment thesis:Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costsAs with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate upon 3-year anniversary (January)Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costs:Although the 2023 / 2024 rate environment has pressured NIMs, there are already signs that interest-rate spread / NIM have bottomed, even as no interest rate cuts have happened. Interest rate spreads have leveled out in the past three quarters at ~1.7%. Liabilities have mostly repriced, and from here, tailwinds will be 1) repricing of the 5-year ARMs and 2) interest rate cuts starting in September. NIM will be going up, and will likely recover to historical levels within a couple of years.On the expense side, there was significant concern into the 2023 results about non-interest expense. Compensation and benefits grew by 13% CAGR from 2019 - 2023. Growth was 10% in 2023, showing deceleration but still to a high level. However, based on comments by IR that the bank has built expense infrastructure for a much larger bank, and based on results from 1H 2024, it looks like expenses are more controlled now. Non interest cost was in the 17.0M - 17.9M range for the last four quarters (prior to recently announced Q2). Q2, on the other hand, showed non-interest expense at 16.1M. Meanwhile, interest earning assets continued to grow at ~12% Y/Y. The combination of flat / decreasing costs and double-digit asset growth is very favorable for expense leverage.Additionally, managers have incentives to create shareholder value, especially as they reach retirement age. If Ponce doesn’t slow expense growth, shareholder activists may discover Ponce and pressure management to rationalize or sell the bank.The combination of improving NIM, growth in assets, and flattish expenses should produce much higher EPS in coming quarters, and I think $2 - $2.50 in EPS by 2026 is likely (if the bank isn’t sold).As with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate:The three-year anniversary of the thrift conversion is in January. The board is of retirement age and has healthy incentives to sell the bank. A buyout is likely a home-run from today’s stock price of $10.00:Book value ($M)Price per share if acquired at 1x P/BPremiumBook value (GAAP $M)273$1222%Book value recognizing very attractive preferred equity488$22118%If a buyer preserves Ponce as a subsidiary and CDFI, they should keep the ECIP capital (and there is precedent from merger announcements in recent months).Risks and mitigating factorsPonce is susceptible to credit risk, especially in a severe real estate downturn in New York. However, from what we can see of the wake of 2008/2009 financial crash, realized losses on the portfolio were quite low. Additionally, current credit metrics are pristine. 90-day delinquencies are just 0.5% of loans. Construction loans were the worst performers at 1.6%, followed by (counter-intuitively) owner-occupied at 1.4%. The NYC real estate dynamics affecting NYCB and others appear to be non-issues for PDLB. However it’s worth keeping a close eye on credit metrics.If NYC raises taxes to address budget deficits, it could hurt property prices. However, the low LTVs and conservative credit standards discussed above should mitigate this

The Finance sector's operating environment was previously characterised by record-low interest rates. Nonetheless, high inflation prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike the cash rate from May 2022 onwards. This shift allowed financial institutions to impose higher loan charges, propelling their revenue. Banks raised interest rates quicker than funding costs in the first half of 2022-23, boosting net interest margins. However, sophisticated competition and digital disruption have reshaped the sector and nibbled at the Big Four's dominance, weighing on ADIs' performance. In the first half of 2025, the fierce competition has forced ADIs to trim lending rates even ahead of RBA moves to protect their slice of the mortgage market. Higher cash rates initially widened net interest margins, but the expiry of cheap TFF funding and a fierce mortgage war are now compressing spreads, weighing on ADIs' profitability. Although ANZ's 2024 Suncorp Bank takeover highlights some consolidation, the real contest is unfolding in tech. Larger financial institutions are combatting intensified competition from neobanks and fintechs by upscaling their technology investments, strengthening their strategic partnerships with cloud providers and technology consulting firms and augmenting their digital offerings. Notable examples include the launch of ANZ Plus by ANZ and Commonwealth Bank's Unloan. Meanwhile, investor demand for rental properties, elevated residential housing prices and sizable state-infrastructure pipelines have continued to underpin loan growth, offsetting the drag from weaker mortgage affordability and volatile business sentiment. Overall, subdivision revenue is expected to rise at an annualised 8.3% over the five years through 2024-25, to $524.6 billion. This growth trajectory includes an estimated 4.8% decline in 2024-25 driven by rate cuts in 2025, which will weigh on income from interest-bearing assets. The Big Four banks will double down on technology investments and partnerships to counter threats from fintech startups and neobanks. As cybersecurity risks and APRA regulations evolve, financial institutions will gear up to strengthen their focus on shielding sensitive customer data and preserving trust, lifting compliance and operational costs. In the face of fierce competition, evolving regulations and shifting customer preferences, consolidation through M&As is poised to be a viable trend for survival and growth, especially among smaller financial institutions like credit unions. While rate cuts will challenge profitability within the sector, expansionary economic policies are poised to stimulate business and mortgage lending activity, presenting opportunities for strategic growth in a dynamic market. These trends are why Finance subdivision revenue is forecast to rise by an annualised 1.1% over the five years through the end of 2029-30, to $554.9 billion