VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR
Housing Permits (LU3)

FULL MEASURE NAME
Permitted housing units

LAST UPDATED
February 2023

DESCRIPTION
Housing growth is measured in terms of the number of units that local jurisdictions permit throughout a given year. A permitted unit is a unit that a city or county has authorized for construction.

DATA SOURCE
California Housing Foundation/Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) - https://www.cirbreport.org/
Construction Review report (1967-2022)

Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) – Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) - https://data.bayareametro.gov/Development/HCD-Annual-Progress-Report-Jurisdiction-Summary/nxbj-gfv7
Housing Permits Database (2014-2021)

Census Bureau Building Permit Survey - https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/County/
Building permits by county (annual, monthly)

CONTACT INFORMATION
vitalsigns.info@bayareametro.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator)
Bay Area housing permits data by single/multi family come from the California Housing Foundation/Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB). Affordability breakdowns from 2014 to 2021 come from the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) – Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Housing Permits Database.

Single-family housing units include detached, semi-detached, row house and town house units. Row houses and town houses are included as single-family units when each unit is separated from the adjacent unit by an unbroken ground-to-roof party or fire wall. Condominiums are included as single-family units when they are of zero-lot-line or zero-property-line construction; when units are separated by an air space; or, when units are separated by an unbroken ground-to-roof party or fire wall. Multi-family housing includes duplexes, three-to-four-unit structures and apartment-type structures with five units or more. Multi-family also includes condominium units in structures of more than one living unit that do not meet the single-family housing definition.

Each multi-family unit is counted separately even though they may be in the same building. Total units is the sum of single-family and multi-family units. County data is available from 1967 whereas city data is available from 1990. City data is only available for incorporated cities and towns. All permits in unincorporated cities and towns are included under their respective county’s unincorporated total. Permit data is not available for years when the city or town was not incorporated.

Affordable housing is the total number of permitted units affordable to low and very low income households. Housing affordable to very low income households are households making below 50% of the area median income. Housing affordable to low income households are households making between 50% and 80% of the area median income. Housing affordable to moderate income households are households making below 80% and 120% of the area median income. Housing affordable to above moderate income households are households making above 120% of the area median income.

Permit data is missing for the following cities and years:
Clayton, 1990-2007
Lafayette, 1990-2007
Moraga, 1990-2007
Orinda, 1990-2007
San Ramon, 1990

Building permit data for metropolitan areas for each year is the sum of non-seasonally adjusted monthly estimates from the Census Building Permit Survey. The Bay Area values are the sum of the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward MSA and the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA. The counties included in these areas are: San Francisco, Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and San Benito.

Permit values reflect the number of units permitted in each respective year. Note that the data columns come from difference sources. The columns (SFunits, MFunits, TOTALunits, SF_Share and MF_Share) are sourced from CIRB. The columns (VeryLowunits, Lowunits, Moderateunits, AboveModerateunits, VeryLow_Share, Low_Share, Moderate_Share, AboveModerate_Share, Affordableunits and Affordableunits_Share) are sourced from the ABAG Housing Permits Database. Due to the slightly different methodologies that exist within each of those datasets, the total units from each of the two sources might not be consistent with each other.

As shown, three different data sources are used for this analysis of housing permits issued in the Bay Area. Data from the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) represents the best available data source for examining housing permits issued over time in cities and counties across the Bay Area, dating back to 1967. In recent years, Annual Progress Report (APR) data collected by the California Department of Housing and Community Development has been available for analyzing housing permits issued by affordability levels. Since CIRB data is only available for California jurisdictions, the U.S. Census Bureau provides the best data source for comparing housing permits issued across different metropolitan areas. Notably, annual permit totals for the Bay Area differ across these three data sources, reflecting the limitations of needing to use different data sources for different purposes.

Analysis of ‘ Zillow Housing Aspirations Report’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://www.kaggle.com/yamqwe/zillow-housing-aspirations-reporte on 13 February 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

About this dataset

Additional Data Products

Product: Zillow Housing Aspirations Report

Date: April 2017

Definitions

Home Types and Housing Stock

• All Homes: Zillow defines all homes as single-family, condominium and co-operative homes with a county record. Unless specified, all series cover this segment of the housing stock.
• Condo/Co-op: Condominium and co-operative homes.
• Multifamily 5+ units: Units in buildings with 5 or more housing units, that are not a condominiums or co-ops.
• Duplex/Triplex: Housing units in buildings with 2 or 3 housing units.

Additional Data Products

• Zillow Home Value Forecast (ZHVF): The ZHVF is the one-year forecast of the ZHVI. Our forecast methodology is methodology post.
• Zillow creates our negative equity data using our own data in conjunction with data received through our partnership with TransUnion, a leading credit bureau. We match estimated home values against actual outstanding home-related debt amounts provided by TransUnion. To read more about how we calculate our negative equity metrics, please see our here.
• Cash Buyers: The share of homes in a given area purchased without financing/in cash. To read about how we calculate our cash buyer data, please see our research brief.
• Mortgage Affordability, Rental Affordability, Price-to-Income Ratio, Historical ZHVI, Historical ZHVI and Houshold Income are calculated as a part of Zillow’s quarterly Affordability Indices. To calculate mortgage affordability, we first calculate the mortgage payment for the median-valued home in a metropolitan area by using the metro-level Zillow Home Value Index for a given quarter and the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate during that time period, provided by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (based on a 20 percent down payment). Then, we consider what portion of the monthly median household income (U.S. Census) goes toward this monthly mortgage payment. Median household income is available with a lag. For quarters where median income is not available from the U.S. Census Bureau, we calculate future quarters of median household income by estimating it using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Cost Index. The affordability forecast is calculated similarly to the current affordability index but uses the one year Zillow Home Value Forecast instead of the current Zillow Home Value Index and a specified interest rate in lieu of PMMS. It also assumes a 20 percent down payment. We calculate rent affordability similarly to mortgage affordability; however we use the Zillow Rent Index, which tracks the monthly median rent in particular geographical regions, to capture rental prices. Rents are chained back in time by using U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data from 2006 to the start of the Zillow Rent Index, and Decennial Census for all other years.
• The mortgage rate series is the average mortgage rate quoted on Zillow Mortgages for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage in 15-minute increments during business hours, 6:00 AM to 5:00 PM Pacific. It does not include quotes for jumbo loans, FHA loans, VA loans, loans with mortgage insurance or quotes to consumers with credit scores below 720. Federal holidays are excluded. The jumbo mortgage rate series is the average jumbo mortgage rate quoted on Zillow Mortgages for a 30-year, fixed-rate, jumbo mortgage in one-hour increments during business hours, 6:00 AM to 5:00 PM Pacific Time. It does not include quotes to consumers with credit scores below 720. Traditional federal holidays and hours with insufficient sample sizes are excluded.

About Zillow Data (and Terms of Use Information)

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• Unless otherwise noted, all series cover single-family residences, condominiums and co-op homes only.

Source: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/

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