Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

IBISWorld examines the potentially significant effects of a global recession on domestic industries, businesses and consumers.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

According to a survey conducted in August 2024, over ** percent of consumers in the United States believed both inflation and a pending recession would impact their Halloween spending plans. About the same number of people said these economic changes would not influence their spending.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in Average Inflation Targeting Would Be a Weak Tool for the Fed to Deal with Recession and Chronic Low Inflation, PIIE Policy Brief 19-16. If you use the data, please cite as: Reifschneider, David, and David Wilcox. (2019). Average Inflation Targeting Would Be a Weak Tool for the Fed to Deal with Recession and Chronic Low Inflation. PIIE Policy Brief 19-16. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Several prominent economists have argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession. We challenge this argument by showing that a standard DSGE model with financial frictions available prior to the recent crisis successfully predicts a sharp contraction in economic activity along with a protracted but relatively modest decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008:IV. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy. (JEL E12, E31, E32, E37, E44, E52, G01)

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jul 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does a good job of accounting for the joint behavior of labor and goods markets, as well as inflation, during the Great Recession. According to the model the observed fall in total factor productivity and the rise in the cost of working capital played critical roles in accounting for the small drop in inflation that occurred during the Great Recession. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E52)

Stagflation (stagnation and inflation in one word) depicts a time period when an economy is not only suffering from a recession (declining GDP), but high unemployment and inflation rates as well. Usually unemployment and inflation are inversely related, which makes stagflation a rare occurrence. It first happened in the 1970s, when OPEC put an oil embargo on the United States, resulting in oil prices skyrocketing to three times the standard value at that time. As of September 2023, the price of oil fell by 20 percent in comparison to last year after having increased by 76 perent as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The has been signs of stagflation in some countries through 2022 and 2023, but falling inflation rates indicate that the worst has been avoided.

ABSTRACT Food prices play a major role in setting inflation rates, and in recent years’ global climatic conditions has worsened a lot while global demand is increasing due to the growth of the middle class in countries such as China and India. Rising food prices remains a key concern for the government of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia remains vulnerable to increases in food prices due to its high dependence on imports. The Saudi economy is an open-market based economy which is reflected by data of foreign trade with trading partners of the Kingdom. High degree of economic openness of a country causes the domestic inflation rate to be affected by change in the prices of goods in the country of origin. Saudi government is facing the challenge of limiting inflation amid a spike in global food prices. Another major challenge to the effectiveness of the Saudi monetary policy is the lack of autonomy due to the pegged exchange rate system with the US dollar. This paper attempts to study the market dynamics of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, drivers responsible for inflation and measures that has been taken by the government to deal with the situation.

Due to increasing inflation rates, economic growth has been slow in several countries worldwide, and some risk falling into recession. When asked about this, ** percent of respondents in South Korea believed that the country's economy had fallen into recession, and ** percent of respondents in Turkey did the same. In fact, South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate increased by *** percent in the third quarter of 2023. Inflation increased rapidly around the world through 2022 and 2023, before it started falling in some countries in 2024.

Abstract (en): Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect. A zipped package contains a programming syntax file (text format) and a Microsoft Excel file, which contains the data, tables, and corresponding figures used in the article.These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

In 2023 and through 2024, the world saw inflation rates increase amid, among other things, post-COVID-19 effects and the Russia-Ukraine war. Argentina and Turkey were both plagued by hyperinflation, with over *** and ** percent in 2024, respectively. Except for these, Russia had the highest inflation rate, at nearly ***** percent. On the other hand, China had the lowest rate of the countries included here, at *** percent. Argentinian inflation crisis During the *****, Argentina was struck by extreme levels of inflation, which severely impacted the livelihoods of Argentinians. Specifically, the costs of goods have presented numerous challenges to Argentinian consumers. In Argentina, a basic food basket that costs around ****** Argentinian pesos cost over 100,000 by February 2024. Similarly, a basic consumer goods basket that cost around ****** Argentinian pesos in February 2023 rose to over ******* by February 2024. While these rising costs have been challenging for consumers, Argentina’s inflation rate is expected to decrease beginning in 2024 and is estimated to reach ***% by 2029.

British recession Besides the outliers of Argentina and Turkey, the United Kingdom had a comparatively high CPI rate. As of 2024, the British economy has entered a recession, the only G7 country to do so. Just before the general election held in July 2024, British voters indicated that health, mostly the lack of financial support and staff shortages, as well as the economy was the most important issue to them.

Abstract

The Consumer price surveys primarily provide the following: Data on CPI in Palestine covering the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem J1 for major and sub groups of expenditure. Statistics needed for decision-makers, planners and those who are interested in the national economy. Contribution to the preparation of quarterly and annual national accounts data.

Consumer Prices and indices are used for a wide range of purposes, the most important of which are as follows: Adjustment of wages, government subsidies and social security benefits to compensate in part or in full for the changes in living costs. To provide an index to measure the price inflation of the entire household sector, which is used to eliminate the inflation impact of the components of the final consumption expenditure of households in national accounts and to dispose of the impact of price changes from income and national groups. Price index numbers are widely used to measure inflation rates and economic recession. Price indices are used by the public as a guide for the family with regard to its budget and its constituent items. Price indices are used to monitor changes in the prices of the goods traded in the market and the consequent position of price trends, market conditions and living costs. However, the price index does not reflect other factors affecting the cost of living, e.g. the quality and quantity of purchased goods. Therefore, it is only one of many indicators used to assess living costs. It is used as a direct method to identify the purchasing power of money, where the purchasing power of money is inversely proportional to the price index.

Geographic coverage

Palestine West Bank Gaza Strip Jerusalem

Analysis unit

The target population for the CPI survey is the shops and retail markets such as grocery stores, supermarkets, clothing shops, restaurants, public service institutions, private schools and doctors.

Universe

The target population for the CPI survey is the shops and retail markets such as grocery stores, supermarkets, clothing shops, restaurants, public service institutions, private schools and doctors.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

A non-probability purposive sample of sources from which the prices of different goods and services are collected was updated based on the establishment census 2017, in a manner that achieves full coverage of all goods and services that fall within the Palestinian consumer system. These sources were selected based on the availability of the goods within them. It is worth mentioning that the sample of sources was selected from the main cities inside Palestine: Jenin, Tulkarm, Nablus, Qalqiliya, Ramallah, Al-Bireh, Jericho, Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Hebron, Gaza, Jabalia, Dier Al-Balah, Nusseirat, Khan Yunis and Rafah. The selection of these sources was considered to be representative of the variation that can occur in the prices collected from the various sources. The number of goods and services included in the CPI is approximately 730 commodities, whose prices were collected from 3,200 sources. (COICOP) classification is used for consumer data as recommended by the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA-2008).

Sampling deviation

Not apply

Mode of data collection

Computer Assisted Personal Interview [capi]

Research instrument

A tablet-supported electronic form was designed for price surveys to be used by the field teams in collecting data from different governorates, with the exception of Jerusalem J1. The electronic form is supported with GIS, and GPS mapping technique that allow the field workers to locate the outlets exactly on the map and the administrative staff to manage the field remotely. The electronic questionnaire is divided into a number of screens, namely: First screen: shows the metadata for the data source, governorate name, governorate code, source code, source name, full source address, and phone number. Second screen: shows the source interview result, which is either completed, temporarily paused or permanently closed. It also shows the change activity as incomplete or rejected with the explanation for the reason of rejection. Third screen: shows the item code, item name, item unit, item price, product availability, and reason for unavailability. Fourth screen: checks the price data of the related source and verifies their validity through the auditing rules, which was designed specifically for the price programs. Fifth screen: saves and sends data through (VPN-Connection) and (WI-FI technology).

In case of the Jerusalem J1 Governorate, a paper form has been designed to collect the price data so that the form in the top part contains the metadata of the data source and in the lower section contains the price data for the source collected. After that, the data are entered into the price program database.

Cleaning operations

The price survey forms were already encoded by the project management depending on the specific international statistical classification of each survey. After the researcher collected the price data and sent them electronically, the data was reviewed and audited by the project management. Achievement reports were reviewed on a daily and weekly basis. Also, the detailed price reports at data source levels were checked and reviewed on a daily basis by the project management. If there were any notes, the researcher was consulted in order to verify the data and call the owner in order to correct or confirm the information.

At the end of the data collection process in all governorates, the data will be edited using the following process: Logical revision of prices by comparing the prices of goods and services with others from different sources and other governorates. Whenever a mistake is detected, it should be returned to the field for correction. Mathematical revision of the average prices for items in governorates and the general average in all governorates. Field revision of prices through selecting a sample of the prices collected from the items.

Response rate

Not apply

Sampling error estimates

The findings of the survey may be affected by sampling errors due to the use of samples in conducting the survey rather than total enumeration of the units of the target population, which increases the chances of variances between the actual values we expect to obtain from the data if we had conducted the survey using total enumeration. The computation of differences between the most important key goods showed that the variation of these goods differs due to the specialty of each survey. The variance of the key goods in the computed and disseminated CPI survey that was carried out on the Palestine level was for reasons related to sample design and variance calculation of different indicators since there was a difficulty in the dissemination of results by governorates due to lack of weights. Non-sampling errors are probable at all stages of data collection or data entry. Non-sampling errors include: Non-response errors: the selected sources demonstrated a significant cooperation with interviewers; so, there wasn't any case of non-response reported during 2019. Response errors (respondent), interviewing errors (interviewer), and data entry errors: to avoid these types of errors and reduce their effect to a minimum, project managers adopted a number of procedures, including the following: More than one visit was made to every source to explain the objectives of the survey and emphasize the confidentiality of the data. The visits to data sources contributed to empowering relations, cooperation, and the verification of data accuracy. Interviewer errors: a number of procedures were taken to ensure data accuracy throughout the process of field data compilation: Interviewers were selected based on educational qualification, competence, and assessment. Interviewers were trained theoretically and practically on the questionnaire. Meetings were held to remind interviewers of instructions. In addition, explanatory notes were supplied with the surveys. A number of procedures were taken to verify data quality and consistency and ensure data accuracy for the data collected by a questioner throughout processing and data entry (knowing that data collected through paper questionnaires did not exceed 5%): Data entry staff was selected from among specialists in computer programming and were fully trained on the entry programs. Data verification was carried out for 10% of the entered questionnaires to ensure that data entry staff had entered data correctly and in accordance with the provisions of the questionnaire. The result of the verification was consistent with the original data to a degree of 100%. The files of the entered data were received, examined, and reviewed by project managers before findings were extracted. Project managers carried out many checks on data logic and coherence, such as comparing the data of the current month with that of the previous month, and comparing the data of sources and between governorates. Data collected by tablet devices were checked for consistency and accuracy by applying rules at item level to be checked.

Data appraisal

Other technical procedures to improve data quality: Seasonal adjustment processes and estimations of non-available items' prices: Under each category, a number of common items are used in Palestine to calculate the price levels and to represent the commodity within the commodity group. Of course, it is

In a New Keynesian model with downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR), we show that government spending is more effective in stimulating output in a low-inflation recession relative to a high-inflation recession. The government spending multiplier is large when DNWR binds, but the nature of recession matters due to the opposing response of inflation, and consequently for real wages. Using U.S. historical time series data, we provide evidence of larger spending multipliers in low inflation recessions and the importance of the depth of recessions. We also employ cross-sectional data from U.S. states to document supporting evidence on multipliers and our proposed mechanism.

Survey investigates indepth attitudes toward the economy, affects of inflation, and financial management.

Questions include standard of living, income, financial stress, savings and borrowing habits, money budgeted for housing, transportation, food and leisure. Questions about taxation, causes of inflation, recession, tax revolt, cost of living and financial investments are also included. A tack-on surveys attitudes toward environmental air and water pollution, political affairs, civil rights, and Joe Namath.