The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 to 2030 at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product Version 5, which provides a conservative estimate of global urban land cover. The authors then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create the population density driver map. They estimated the amount of new urban land in each United Nations region by 2030 in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities and probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030. To facilitate integration with other data products, CIESIN reprojected the data from Goode's Homolosine to Geographic WGS84 projection.

Human activities catalyze risk avoidance behaviors in wildlife across taxa and systems. However, the broader ecological significance of human-induced risk perception remains unclear, with a limited understanding of how phenotypic responses scale up to affect population or community dynamics. We conducted a comprehensive literature review of non-consumptive effects (NCE; population effects) and trait-mediated indirect effects (TMIE; community effects) of anthropogenic disturbances. This dataset includes all papers identified from the comprehensive review of the different types of human-induced behavioral and physiological phenotypic change and their influence on vital rates and population parameters in wildlife. All papers in this database tested for a human-induced NCE or TMIE in wildlife but not all found evidence for an effect. Many of the papers did not explicitly measure the presumed phenotypic change linking human activity to vital rates or population parameters. The authors, paper title, journal, publication year, type of human disturbance, species, system, phenotypic response measured, demographic response measured, if a demographic effect was found, and whether an NCE or TMIE was tested are all included in the dataset. In addition, we include the source of the paper in our dataset (i.e. whether it came up in our Web of Science search, as a citing paper of Frid and Dill (2002), or in a review paper on human-induced fear in wildlife; column A). The papers in which multiple NCE or TMIE pathways were tested may have multiple values in a single cell. Papers are sorted alphabetically by author. Evidence for human-induced NCEs and TMIEs is mixed, with half of published studies finding a relationship between human activities, phenotypic change, and population outcomes. Strong research biases in taxa, systems, human disturbance type, and demographic measures prevent unified inference about the prevalence of population responses to human activities. Coexistence with and conservation of wildlife requires additional research linking human-induced phenotypic change to population and community outcomes. Methods To evaluate the evidence linking perceived risk from humans and associated phenotypic responses to downstream ecological consequences, we comprehensively reviewed the literature on human-induced NCEs and TMIEs. Papers evaluated in our comprehensive review were identified from three sources: 1) two Web of Science searches; 2) papers citing Frid and Dill (2002; https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-00404-060111*), 3) relevant papers found within review papers identified from (1) and (2). The specifics of the Web of Science searches are provided below. We initially scanned all papers for three criteria in a progressive manner; to advance, each paper had to be empirical, examine an effect of anthropogenic disturbance, and reference a topic related to risk. Papers meeting all three criteria were further filtered to those that evaluated a human-induced risk effect and tested for an effect beyond a phenotypic response (i.e. a change in fitness, fecundity, survival, density, abundance, or population growth). For these papers, we recorded the nature of the response, type of human-induced cue, species, system, and if a demographic effect was found. The scoring of these papers was led by one author and evaluated for accuracy by two other authors (including the lead author). Where disagreements arose, papers were further co-reviewed, with final decisions made by the lead author. Of 1769 papers reviewed, 92 tested for an NCE or TMIE, and only 57 linked this effect to an explicitly measured phenotypic response. Web of Science Search 1 "nonconsumptive" OR "non-consumptive" OR "ecology of fear" OR "landscape of fear" OR "trait mediated" OR "trait-mediated" OR "behaviorally mediated" OR "behaviorally-mediated" OR "interaction modification" OR "interaction-modification" OR "non-trophic interaction" OR "nontrophic interaction" AND: human OR anthropogenic OR recreat* OR hunt* OR disturbance OR "human footprint" OR roads OR "energy development" or infrastructure Web of Science Search 2 "sublethal" OR "sub-lethal" AND: human OR anthropogenic OR recreat* OR hunt* OR disturbance OR "human footprint" OR roads OR "energy development" or infrastructure AND: predat* OR risk OR fear NOT: pestic* OR herbic* OR toxi* OR chemic* OR salin* OR drug* OR radiat* OR nitr* OR lead OR caffeine OR pharma* OR plastic OR hypox* OR mercury NOT: "nonconsumptive" OR "non-consumptive" OR "ecology of fear" OR "landscape of fear" OR "trait-mediated" OR "trait mediated" OR "behaviorally mediated" OR "behaviorally-mediated" OR "interaction modification" OR "interaction-modification" OR "Non-trophic interaction" OR "nontrophic interaction" *Citations of: Frid, A. & Dill, L.M. (2002). Human-caused disturbance stimuli as a form of predation risk. Conservation Ecology, 6(1):11.

In 1998, formal demographic censusing of wild ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) populations was initiated in West Virginia. By 2004, thirty populations had been added to the census effort, spanning seven states (IN-2, KY-6, MD-1, NY-2, PA-2, VA-5, WV-12) and a wide variety of land use histories and eastern deciduous forest communities. The censusing effort continued without interruption at all populations until June, 2016. Annually, each population was visited twice. The first visit generally occurred between late May and the end of June. The second visit generally occurred in the first three weeks of August. The purpose of the spring census was to assess the population status at the time of year when the largest number of individuals were visible aboveground (post-germination, prior to substantial losses due to browsing and other causes). Detailed measures of plant size were made, with an emphasis on total leaf area calculation. In addition, a variety of plant condition notations were made, with the ultimate goal of determining mortality and recruitment in the population, as well as individual size transitions. The primary purpose of the second census each year was to assess seed production on each plant. In addition, further notations of plant condition were made to assess changes over the growing season. To maintain methodological consistency with field personnel turnover, the lead author participated in fieldwork throughout the study, visiting each population at least once every two years. In addition, after being trained themselves, graduate students trained undergraduate conservation interns to assure consistent methods were used each year. The data are suitable for demographic modeling, and the unique spatial and temporal extent allow the exploration of important questions about variability in population growth and viability of ginseng, America’s premiere wild harvested medicinal plant.

Peer reviewed publications derived from this dataset:

McGraw, J. B., S. M. Sanders, and M. E. Van der Voort. 2003. Distribution and Abundance of Hydrastis canadensis L. (Ranunculaceae) and Panax quinquefolius L. (Araliaceae) in the Central Appalachian Region. Journal of the Torrey Botanical Club 130(2): 62-69.

Furedi, M. A. and J. B. McGraw. 2004. White-tailed deer: Dispersers or predators of American ginseng seeds? American Midland Naturalist 152:268-276.

McGraw, J. B. and M. A. Furedi. 2005. Deer browsing and population viability of a forest understory plant. Science 307: 920-922.

McGraw, J. B., M. A. Furedi, K. Maiers, C. Carroll, G. Kauffman, A. Lubbers, J. Wolf, R. Anderson, R. Anderson, B. Wilcox, D. Drees, M. E. Van der Voort, M. Albrecht, A. Nault, H. MacCulloch, and A. Gibbs. 2005. Berry ripening and harvest season in wild American ginseng. Northeastern Naturalist 12(2): 141-152.

Van der Voort, M. E. and J. B. McGraw. 2006. Effects of harvester behavior on population growth rate affects sustainability of ginseng trade. Biological Conservation 130: 505-516.

Mooney, E. H. and J. B. McGraw. 2007. Unintentional effects of harvest on selection in wild American ginseng. Conservation Genetics 8: 57-67.

Wixted, K. and J. B. McGraw. 2009. A Panax-centric view of invasive species. Biological Invasions 11(4): 883-893.

Mooney, E. H. and J. B. McGraw. 2009. Relationship between age, size and reproduction in populations of American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius (Araliaceae), across a range of harvest pressures. Ecoscience 16(1): 84-94.

McGraw, J. B., S. Souther, and A. E. Lubbers. 2010. Rates of harvest and compliance with regulations in natural populations of American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.). Natural Areas Journal 30: 202-210.

Souther, S. and J. B. McGraw. 2011. Vulnerability of wild American ginseng to an extreme early spring temperature fluctuation. Population Ecology 53(1):119-129.

Souther, S. and J. B. McGraw. 2011. Local adaptation to temperature and its implications for species conservation in a changing climate. Conservation Biology 25(5): 922-931.

McGraw, J. B., A. E. Lubbers, M. E. Van der Voort, E. H. Mooney, M. A. Furedi, S. Souther, J. B. Turner, J. Chandler. 2013. Ecology and conservation of ginseng (Panax quinquefolius) in a changing world. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1286: 62-91. {ISSN 0077-8923. DOI: 10.1111/nyas.12032. (Invited Review)}

Wagner, A. and J. B. McGraw. 2013. Sunfleck effects on physiology, growth, and local demography of American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.). Forest Ecology and Management 291:220-227.

Souther, S. and J. B. McGraw. 2014. Synergistic effects of climate change and harvest on extinction risk of American ginseng. Ecological Applications 24(6): 1463-1477.

Hruska, A. M., S. So