Contains projections (based on different assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration) of the resident population of Australia, the states and territories, capital cities and balance of states, by age and sex for the base year to 2101 (for Australia) and for the base year to 2061 (for the states and territories, capital cities and balances of states). Also includes summary measures such as percentages of population in selected age groups and median ages as well as detailed notes on the assumptions used.

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

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Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)

This dataset presents the preliminary estimates of the resident population by age and sex as at 30 June 2017. The data is aggregated to Statistical Areas Level 3 (SA3), according to the 2016 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population, which links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a given reference year. For the 30 June reference date, this refers to the calendar year around it. Estimates of the resident population are based on Census counts by place of usual residence (excluding short-term overseas visitors in Australia), with an allowance for Census net undercount, to which are added the estimated number of Australian residents temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. A person is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be) residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16-month period. This data is ABS data (catalogue number: 3235.0) available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For more information please visit the Explanatory Notes.

Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24), released in January 2025.

TZP24 replaces the previously published TZP22.

The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions.

The TZP24 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:

• Estimated Resident Population

• Structural Private Dwellings (Regional NSW only)

• Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex

• Population in Non-Private Dwellings

The projections in this release, TZP24, are presented annually from 2021 to 2031 and 5-yearly from 2031 to 2066, and are in TZ21 geography.

Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024, and the projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.

Key Data Inputs used in TZP24:

• 2024 NSW Population Projections – NSW Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure

• 2021 Census data - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence)

For a summary of the TZP24 projection method please refer to the TZP24 Factsheet.

For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP24 Technical Guide.

Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone 2021 boundaries for NSW (TZ21) and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.

Visualisations of the population projections are available on the Transport for NSW Website under Data and research/Reference Information.

Cautions

The TZP24 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions and population and employment projections.

The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

• TZP24 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns.

• The TZP24 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at early 2024).

• The projections are not government targets.

• Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results.

• As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only.

• More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub.

• Caution is advised when comparing TZP24 with the previous set of projections (TZP22) due to addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology.

Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP24 Technical Guide

Important note:

The Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure (DPHI) published the 2024 NSW Population Projections in November 2024. As per DPHI’s published projections, the following variables are excluded from the published TZP24 Population and Dwellings Projections:

• Structural Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in 43 councils across Greater Sydney, Illawarra-Shoalhaven, Central Coast, Lower Hunter and Greater Newcastle

• Occupied Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in NSW.

Furthermore, in TZP24, the Structural Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Implied Dwelling projections while the Occupied Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Households projections at SA2 level prepared by DPHI.

The above variables are available upon request by contacting model.selection@transport.nsw.gov.au - Attention Place Forecasting.

This dataset presents the preliminary estimates of the resident population by age and sex as at 30 June 2019. The data is aggregated to Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2), according to the 2016 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population, which links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a given reference year. For the 30 June reference date, this refers to the calendar year around it. Estimates of the resident population are based on Census counts by place of usual residence (excluding short-term overseas visitors in Australia), with an allowance for Census net undercount, to which are added the estimated number of Australian residents temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. A person is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be) residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16-month period. This data is ABS data (catalogue number: 3235.0) available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For more information please visit the Explanatory Notes. AURIN has spatially enabled the data. Regions which contain unpublished data have been left blank in the dataset.

This dataset presents the summary preliminary estimates of the resident population by age and sex as at 30 June 2019, this includes population by sex, median age by sex and percentage of the population within a certain age range. The data is aggregated to the 2019 edition of the Local Government Areas (LGA). Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population, which links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a given reference year. For the 30 June reference date, this refers to the calendar year around it. Estimates of the resident population are based on Census counts by place of usual residence (excluding short-term overseas visitors in Australia), with an allowance for Census net undercount, to which are added the estimated number of Australian residents temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. A person is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be) residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16-month period. This data is ABS data (catalogue number: 3235.0) available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For more information please visit the Explanatory Notes. AURIN has spatially enabled the data. Regions which contain unpublished data have been left blank in the dataset. Where regions have zero population, the relating ratio and percentage columns have been left blank.

This dataset presents the preliminary estimates of the resident population by age and sex as at 30 June 2017. The data is aggregated to the 2017 edition of the Local Government Areas (LGA). Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population, which links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a given reference year. For the 30 June reference date, this refers to the calendar year around it. Estimates of the resident population are based on Census counts by place of usual residence (excluding short-term overseas visitors in Australia), with an allowance for Census net undercount, to which are added the estimated number of Australian residents temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. A person is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be) residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16-month period. This data is ABS data (catalogue number: 3235.0) available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For more information please visit the Explanatory Notes. AURIN has spatially enabled the data. Regions which contain unpublished data have been left blank in the dataset.

This information has been provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For further information see www.abs.gov.au. Projected population growth of Australian capital cities (medium growth scenario), 2012-2061. From: Population projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101, cat.no. 3222.0.

Data ued to produce Figure BLT2 in Built environment, SoE 2016. See https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/built-environment/topic/2016/increased-urban-footprint#built-environment-figure-BLT2

Quarterly estimates of total resident population for states, territories and Australia. Includes estimates of the population by sex in five-year age groups; numbers (and some rates) of births, deaths, infant deaths, interstate and overseas movements; quarterly and/or annual time series spreadsheets; projected resident population for states, territories and Australia; and projected number of households for capital cities, states territories and Australia.

Abstract

This dataset and its metadata statement were supplied to the Bioregional Assessment Programme by a third party and are presented here as originally supplied.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Catalogue Number: 3218.0 Population Estimates by Local Government Area, 2011 to 2012.

Dataset History

ABS Catalogue Number 3218.0 Population Estimates by Local Government Area, 2011 to 2012.

This dataset was downloaded as a single spreadsheet file (.xls) on 29 May, 2014 from the following website: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3218.02011-12?OpenDocument

(Metadata taken from the Explanatory Notes section of the ABS website http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3218.0Explanatory%20Notes12011-12?OpenDocument)

INTRODUCTION

1 This product contains estimates of the resident population of Statistical Areas Level 2 to 4 (SA2s - SA4s) and Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSAs) of Australia. These estimates plus those for Local Government Areas, Significant Urban Areas, Remoteness Areas and Electoral Divisions are also provided in the Downloads tab of this issue.

2 To meet the conflicting demands for accuracy and timeliness there are several versions of sub-state/territory population estimates. Preliminary estimates as at 30 June are normally available by April of the following year, revised estimates twelve months later and rebased and final estimates after the following Census. The estimates in this issue are preliminary rebased for 2011, based on the results of the 2011 Census, and preliminary for 2012.

For an ABS Glossary of Terms visit:

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2901.0Main%20Features12011

Dataset Citation

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) ABS Regional Population Growth Australia 2011-2012. Bioregional Assessment Source Dataset. Viewed 29 September 2017, http://data.bioregionalassessments.gov.au/dataset/c27fc127-3743-4805-b4b6-f50712cd655f.

This dataset contains data used in determining the ABS Population Clock. The data is annual data updated quarterly, and is based on past component data published in Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) or Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) forecasts. Population Clock components and results do not constitute official ABS projections and should not be used for purposes other than the Population Clock.

This dataset presents the preliminary estimates of the resident population by age and sex as at 30 June 2018. The data is aggregated to the 2018 edition of the Local Government Areas (LGA). Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population, which links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a given reference year. For the 30 June reference date, this refers to the calendar year around it. Estimates of the resident population are based on Census counts by place of usual residence (excluding short-term overseas visitors in Australia), with an allowance for Census net undercount, to which are added the estimated number of Australian residents temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. A person is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be) residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16-month period. This data is ABS data (catalogue number: 3235.0) available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For more information please visit the Explanatory Notes. AURIN has spatially enabled the data. Regions which contain unpublished data have been left blank in the dataset.

This dataset contains estimates of the resident population and estimates of the components of population change as at 30 June for the years 2001-2021. The data is aggregated to the 2021 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Local Government Areas (LGA). This data is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (Catalogue Number: 3218.0). For more information please visit the Regional population methodology. Notes: The population estimates in this issue are final for 2001 to 2016, revised for 2017 to 2020, and preliminary for 2021. Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population, which links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a given reference year. For the 30 June reference date, this refers to the calendar year around it. Estimated resident population is based on Census counts by place of usual residence (excluding short-term overseas visitors in Australia), with an allowance for Census net undercount, to which are added the estimated number of Australian residents temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. AURIN has ingested this dataset in its GeoPackage format.

Population projections illustrate how Australia's population will change in the future as a result of certain assumptions. This dataset presents 72 scenarios, comprising combinations of different …Show full descriptionPopulation projections illustrate how Australia's population will change in the future as a result of certain assumptions. This dataset presents 72 scenarios, comprising combinations of different rates of fertility (x3), mortality (x2), net overseas migration (x4) and net interstate migration (x3).

Population projections illustrate how Australia's population will change in the future as a result of certain assumptions. This dataset presents 72 scenarios, comprising combinations of different rates of fertility (x3), mortality (x2), net overseas migration (x4) and net interstate migration (x3).

This dataset presents the preliminary estimates of the resident population by age and sex as at 30 June 2018. The data is aggregated to Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2), according to the 2016 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population, which links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a given reference year. For the 30 June reference date, this refers to the calendar year around it. Estimates of the resident population are based on Census counts by place of usual residence (excluding short-term overseas visitors in Australia), with an allowance for Census net undercount, to which are added the estimated number of Australian residents temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. A person is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be) residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16-month period. This data is ABS data (catalogue number: 3235.0) available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For more information please visit the Explanatory Notes.

This dataset presents the preliminary estimates of the resident population by age and sex as at 30 June 2017. The data is aggregated to Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSA), according to the 2016 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population, which links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a given reference year. For the 30 June reference date, this refers to the calendar year around it. Estimates of the resident population are based on Census counts by place of usual residence (excluding short-term overseas visitors in Australia), with an allowance for Census net undercount, to which are added the estimated number of Australian residents temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. A person is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be) residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16-month period. This data is ABS data (catalogue number: 3235.0) available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For more information please visit the Explanatory Notes.

ABS Statistics about the population, density and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia's capital cities and regions.This dataset is based on ABS Population estimates and components by LGA Excel files as data sources.

Estimated resident population (ERPs) is the official measure of the Australian population, published quarterly by the ABS. This dataset contains quarterly ERP by age, at state/territory and …Show full descriptionEstimated resident population (ERPs) is the official measure of the Australian population, published quarterly by the ABS. This dataset contains quarterly ERP by age, at state/territory and Australia level.

Estimated resident population (ERPs) is the official measure of the Australian population, published quarterly by the ABS. This dataset contains quarterly ERP by age, at state/territory and Australia level.