The population in Africa is expected to grow by ** percent by 2050. Among the countries forecast to be the most populated in the continent, Nigeria leads, with an estimated population of over *** million people. Currently, the nation has already the largest number of inhabitants in Africa. The highest population growth is expected to be measured in Angola, by ***** percent between 2019 and 2050. The number of inhabitants in the country is forecast to jump from **** million to **** million in the mentioned period.

According to the forecast, Africa's total population would reach nearly 2.5 billion by 2050. In 2025, the continent had around 1.55 billion inhabitants, with Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt as the most populous countries. In the coming years, Africa will experience significant population growth and will close the gap significantly with the Asian population by 2100. Rapid population growth In Africa, the annual growth rate of the population followed an overall increasing trend up to 2013, reaching nearly 2.63 percent. This was followed by a drop to 2.32 percent by 2023. Although population growth was slowing down, it was still growing faster than in all other regions. The reasons behind this rapid growth are various. One factor is the high fertility rate registered in African countries. In 2023, a woman in Somalia, Chad, Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic had an average of over six children in her reproductive years, the highest rate on the continent. High fertility resulted in a large young population and partly compensated for the high mortality rate in Africa, leading to fast-paced population growth. High poverty levels Africa’s population is concerned with widespread poverty. In 2025, over 438 million people on the continent are extremely poor and live with less than 2.15 U.S. dollars per day. Globally, Africa is the continent hosting the highest poverty rate. In 2025, the countries of Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo account for over 23 percent of the world's population living in extreme poverty. Nevertheless, the share of the population living in poverty in Africa is forecast to decrease in the coming years.

The West Africa Coastal Vulnerability Mapping: Population Projections, 2030 and 2050 data set is based on an unreleased working version of the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 4, year 2010 population count raster but at a coarser 5 arc-minute resolution. Bryan Jones of Baruch College produced country-level projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4). SSP4 reflects a divided world where cities that have relatively high standards of living, are attractive to internal and international migrants. In low income countries, rapidly growing rural populations live on shrinking areas of arable land due to both high population pressure and expansion of large-scale mechanized farming by international agricultural firms. This pressure induces large migration flow to the cities, contributing to fast urbanization, although urban areas do not provide many opportUnities for the poor and there is a massive expansion of slums and squatter settlements. This scenario may not be the most likely for the West Africa region, but it has internal coherence and is at least plausible.

According to the forecast, the population of Africa will grow by 1.57 percent in 2050 compared to the previous year. The population growth rate in the continent is expected to decline in the coming years, yet the number of inhabitants will continue to increase significantly. By 2050, Africa will reach around 2.67 billion inhabitants, compared to 1.48 billion in 2023.

Sub-Saharan Africa was projected to have over ** million climate migrants by 2050, considering a pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions and unequal development. This would be the highest number of displacements worldwide due to climate conditions. Among African regions, West Africa might see the highest number of climate migrants in all three scenarios.

Considering a moderate emissions scenario, most of Africa's countries will likely have their entire population exposed to heat waves by 2050. According to the source estimates, exposure to heat waves will be lower in South Africa (** percent) and Morocco (** percent).

In 2024, the population of Africa was projected to grow by 2.27 percent compared to the previous year. The population growth rate on the continent has been constantly over 2.5 percent from 2000 onwards, and it peaked at 2.63 percent in 2013. Despite a slowdown in the growth rate after that, the continent's population will continue to increase significantly in the coming years. The second-largest population worldwide In 2023, the total population of Africa amounted to almost 1.5 billion. The number of inhabitants had grown steadily in the previous decades, rising from approximately 831 million in 2000. Driven by a decreasing mortality rate and a higher life expectancy at birth, the African population was forecast to increase to about 2.5 billion individuals by 2050. Africa is currently the second most populous continent worldwide after Asia. However, forecasts showed that Africa could gradually close the gap and almost reach the size of the Asian population in 2100. By that year, Africa might count 3.8 billion people, compared to 4.6 billion in Asia. The world's youngest continent The median age in Africa corresponded to 19.2 years in 2024. Although the median age has increased in recent years, the continent remains the youngest worldwide. In 2023, roughly 40 percent of the African population was aged 15 years and younger, compared to a global average of 25 percent. Africa recorded not only the highest share of youth but also the smallest elderly population worldwide. As of the same year, only three percent of Africa's population was aged 65 years and older. Africa and Latin America were the only regions below the global average of ten percent. On the continent, Niger, Uganda, and Angola were the countries with the youngest population in 2023.

Africa is estimated to be the habitat of ***** percent of the total global population by the year 2050. In 2025, Africa will house ***** percent of the world population.

SP.POP.5559.MA. Male population between the ages 55 to 59. This database presents population and other demographic estimates and projections from 1960 to 2050, covering more than 200 economies. It includes population data by various age groups, sex, urban/rural; fertility data; mortality data; and migration data.

The Groundswell Africa Spatial Population and Migration Projections at One-Eighth Degree According to SSPs and RCPs, 2010-2050 data set provides a baseline population distribution for 2010 and projections from 2020 to 2050, in five-year increments, of population distribution and internal climate-related and other migration for West Africa and the Lake Victoria Basin. The projections are produced using the NCAR-CIDR Spatial Population Downscaling Model developed by the CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The model incorporates assumptions based on future development scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways or SSPs) and emissions trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). The SSPs include SSP2, representing a middle-of-the road future, and SSP4, representing an unequal development future. Climate models using low and high emissions scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, then drive climate impact models on water availability, crop productivity, and pasturelands (where cropping does not occur), as well as flood impacts, from the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Sea-level rise impacts in the coastal zone are estimated to be 1 meter under RCP2.6 and 2 meters under RCP8.5, to account for potential storm surge or coastal flooding. Four scenarios are generated, a pessimistic reference scenario combining SSP4 and RCP8.5, a more climate-friendly scenario combining SSP4 and RCP2.6, a more inclusive development scenario combining SSP2 and RCP8.5, and an optimistic scenario combining SSP2 and RCP2.6. Each scenario provides an ensemble average of four model runs combining different climate impact models as well as confidence intervals to better capture uncertainties. The modeling work was funded and developed jointly with The World Bank.

The annual population growth is derived by FAOSTAT dataset, from 1961 to present, and up to 2050 for the projected population. This dataset has been produced in the framework of the "Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations (ClimAfrica)" project, Work Package 4, Deliverable 4.1 (WP4-D4.1). More information on ClimAfrica project is provided in the Supplemental Information section of this metadata.

Population By Age, Sex And Educational Attainment In 2050 - 2009

SP.POP.7074.MA. Male population between the ages 70 to 74. This database presents population and other demographic estimates and projections from 1960 to 2050, covering more than 200 economies. It includes population data by various age groups, sex, urban/rural; fertility data; mortality data; and migration data.

In this paper, I present and discuss a novel approach to parameterize a gravity model of migration using Bayesian hierarchical models with random intercepts that are free to vary by country of origin, destination, and directed origin-destination country pairs. I then utilize this model to project transboundary migration flows between African countries to the horizon 2050. To do so, I use data on projected future crop yields and water availability from the ISIMIP2b scenarios in combination with projections on future economic and demographic trends from the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that over the period 2010–2050 between 8 to 17 millions people are projected to migrate internationally on the African continent. Yet, only a small portion of these migrants will be induced to move because of climate change. To the contrary, comparisons between SSPs scenarios suggests that economic development will have a far larger impact on projected level of international migration on the continent than climate change.

Christianity is the main religion in Sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2020, over *** million people in the region were Christian. Muslims followed, amounting to around *** million, while folk religions counted over ** million adherents. By 2050, the number of Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to exceed *** billion, Muslims are forecast to be around *** million, and folk religions to account for about ** million adherents.

The African Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI): Bilateral Migration Projections consists of projections for bilateral migration flows at 5-year intervals from 2015 to 2050 for a combination of 2 sets of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios and 3 sets of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The Unit of analysis for the projections are directed migration corridor from an origin country to a sending country on the African continent (there are 46 African countries, thus 2,070 unique directed corridors). These data underpin the African Shift reports that were produced by the Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI) and released under the auspices of the United Nations (UN) Global Center on Climate Migration (GCCM). The ACMI is a joint initiative of the African Union Commission (AUC), the United Nations Development Fund (UNDP), and the World Bank.

Today, one in five youths who enter the labor market is born in Africa. By 2050, it will be one in three. The record figure of young Africans seeking employment is the outcome of different fertility trends across the world: fertility has been falling everywhere, but much more slowly in Africa. This paper present evidence on the labor market consequences of these differences for the young labor market entrants in Africa, compared to older generations and to their counterparts in other low- and middle-income regions of the world. We study how job opportunities depend on the demographic structure and which policies can be implemented to counteract the demographic pressure.

Hotspots zones have been identified for each agro-climatic and climatic parameter and future period, based on the yield anomaly classes (relative differences between the future and the historical period).

For each crop and each period, the hotspots are represented by 5 classes:

• Zones with a high decrease (>20%) for at least one scenario

• Zones with a high decrease (>20%) for at least two scenarios

• Zones with a high increase (>20%) for at least one scenario

• Zones with a high increase (>20%) for at least two scenarios

• Zones with a contradictory information between models

This data set has been produced in the framework of the “Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations (ClimAfrica)” project, Work Package 4 (WP4). More information on ClimAfrica project is provided in the Supplemental Information section of this metadata..

Data publication: 2013-10-01

Supplemental Information:

ClimAfrica was an international project funded by European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme (FP7) for the period 2010-2014. The ClimAfrica consortium was formed by 18 institutions, 9 from Europe, 8 from Africa, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO).

ClimAfrica was conceived to respond to the urgent international need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools and methodologies to better understand and predict climate change, assess its impact on African ecosystems and population, and develop the correct adaptation strategies. Africa is probably the most vulnerable continent to climate change and climate variability and shows diverse range of agro-ecological and geographical features. Thus the impacts of climate change can be very high and can greatly differ across the continent, and even within countries.

The project focused on the following specific objectives:

1. Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially relevant to SSA;

2. Assess climate impacts in key sectors of SSA livelihood and economy, especially water resources and agriculture;

3. Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and longer trends (10 years) in climate;

4. Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies, focused on local needs;

5. Develop a new concept of 10 years monitoring and forecasting warning system, useful for food security, risk management and civil protection in SSA;

6. Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in SSA and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures.

The work of ClimAfrica project was broken down into the following work packages (WPs) closely connected. All the activities described in WP1, WP2, WP3, WP4, WP5 consider the domain of the entire South Sahara Africa region. Only WP6 has a country specific (watershed) spatial scale where models validation and detailed processes analysis are carried out.

Contact points:

Metadata Contact: FAO-Data

Resource Contact: Christelle Vancutsem

Data lineage:

Legend for the crop groups abbreviations in the files:

Group01: Rice rainfed and irrigated= TrRi rf + ir

Group02: Maize rainfed and irrigated= TeCo rf + ir

Group03: Tropical cereals (Millet, Sorghum) rainfed and irrigated= TrMi rf + ir

Group04: Temperate cereals (Wheat, Barley) rainfed and irrigated= TeWW rf + ir

Group05: Pulses rainfed and irrigated= TePu rf + ir

Group06: Root crops rainfed and irrigated= TrMa, TeSb, TeSo rf + ir

Group07: Others (Oilcrops, Fibre crops, Fruits, ...) rainfed and irrigated= TrPe rf + ir

Resource constraints:

copyright

Online resources:

Hotspots per rainfed maize - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed pulse - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed sugar beet - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed wheat - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed manioc - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed millet - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed treenut - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed rice - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed and irrigated group01 - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed and irrigated group02 - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed and irrigated group03 - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed and irrigated group04 - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed and irrigated group05 - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed and irrigated group06 - future period 2020-2050

Hotspots per rainfed and irrigated group07 - future period 2020-2050

Project deliverable D4.1 - Scenarios of major production systems in Africa

Climafrica Website - Climate Change Predictions In Sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts And Adaptations

South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Population: Mid Year data was reported at 68,528,850.000 Person in 2050. This records an increase from the previous number of 68,284,170.000 Person for 2049. South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Population: Mid Year data is updated yearly, averaging 44,913,298.000 Person from Jun 1950 (Median) to 2050, with 101 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 68,528,850.000 Person in 2050 and a record low of 13,595,840.000 Person in 1950. South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Population: Mid Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Africa – Table ZA.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Population: Mid Year: Growth data was reported at 0.350 % in 2050. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.370 % for 2049. South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Population: Mid Year: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 0.960 % from Jun 1985 (Median) to 2050, with 66 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.490 % in 1985 and a record low of 0.350 % in 2050. South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Population: Mid Year: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Africa – Table ZA.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.