This dataset provides the current daily prices of various commodities sourced from multiple markets (mandis) across different regions. It includes detailed information on the market names, commodity types, and their respective prices, offering a snapshot of real-time agricultural and other commodity market trends. The data is valuable for farmers, traders, and analysts to monitor price fluctuations, compare regional price variations, and make informed decisions. It offers insights into supply and demand dynamics, and market conditions, and helps in understanding the economic factors affecting commodity pricing. This dataset supports decision-making, price forecasting, and market research.

Overview This report contains ABARES' latest forecasts for 2016-17 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles on the EU dairy industry and Australia's trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.1 per cent to around $58.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 6.3 per cent increase to $57.8 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 12 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to stay around $29.8 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 10.9 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to $28.6 billion in 2016-17, after an estimated increase of 1.8 per cent in 2015-16. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross value of sugar, cotton and horticultural production offsetting the forecast decreases in the gross value of grain production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $43.0 billion in 2016-17, 2.5 per cent lower than $44.1 billion in 2015-16. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 6 per cent), sugar (14 per cent), lamb (1 per cent), cotton (21 per cent), canola (12 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by forecast falls in export earnings for beef and veal (down 9 per cent), wheat (7 per cent), dairy products (6 per cent), barley (2 per cent), chickpeas (43 per cent) and mutton (18 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 16.7 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU dairy industry
• The EU dairy industry is supported by domestic and trade policies implemented through the Common Agricultural Policy. • Without a change to the existing trade barriers for Australian dairy exports and stronger European demand for imported dairy products generally, Australian exports to that market are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. Trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables
• Australia is a significant net exporter of fresh fruit, fresh vegetables and tree nuts. • Changing diets in Asia's middle class, the depreciation of the Australian dollar and improved market access following the negotiation of several FTAs have supported exports of Australian fresh horticultural produce.

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU beef industry, world biofuel policies and the South American wine industry.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 6.1 per cent to around $60.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 4.2 per cent increase to $56.7 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to decrease by 2.2 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 14.7 per cent to $31.7 billion in 2016-17. This reflects forecast increases in the gross value of horticulture and cotton production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to increase by 6.7 per cent to $47.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.4 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.6 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wheat (up 25 per cent), wool (3 per cent), sugar (23 per cent), wine (3 per cent), barley (15 per cent), cotton (56 per cent), chickpeas (74 per cent), lamb (4 per cent), canola (33 per cent) and rock lobster (6 per cent). • The forecast increases in export earnings are expected to be partly offset by forecast falls in beef and veal (down 17 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (17 per cent) and mutton (12 per cent). Export earnings for dairy products are expected to remain largely unchanged. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 3.4 per cent to $1.6 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7.1 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US75 cents in 2016-17, slightly higher than the average of US73 cents in 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU beef industry
• The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers and importers of beef. Access to the EU market is controlled by strict animal health requirements and various quotas, which limit the amount of beef that can be imported. • As the European Union is a high value market for beef, improved access for Australia from a free trade agreement would likely lead to increased exports to this market.

Oils ain't oils
• Biofuel policies in some of the world's largest biofuel producing economies have the potential to affect returns to Australian agricultural exports such as canola, sugar and coarse grains. • This article looks at recent developments in the world's leading biofuel producers and consumers (the United States, European Union and Brazil) and discusses the expected impact on world commodity prices in 2016-17 and the high-level implications for agricultural commodities in the medium term. South American wine industry
• South America is a major world producer and exporter of wine, accounting for almost 14 per cent of world production. Wine exports from South America have increased markedly in the past 15 years and its wine increasingly competes in Australia's major and emerging export markets. • This article focuses on the development of the Argentine and Chilean wine industries, with a focus on their competitiveness with Australian wine exports.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Overview
The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018.

Overview • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion. • An increase in global economic growth and declines in some global crop supplies are forecast to support average farm export unit values. • Downside risks to the Australian agricultural sector are the prolonged dry spell in some parts of Australia and economic and trade factors facing Australia'!!s key export markets. Commodity production forecasts
• The value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. The value of farm production is around 11 per cent higher than the 10 year average of $55 billion (in 2017-18 dollars). • The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The value of lamb and wool production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 because of strong forecast price growth. The volume of dairy production is expected to increase modestly, despite rising feed costs after consecutive years of low prices for grain and hay. The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall, as declining saleyard prices more-than offset increases in the volume of beef produced.

• The value of crop production is forecast to remain unchanged at $31 billion in 2018-19. This follows an estimated decline of 8 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ In 2018-19 a change in the mix of grain crops is expected due to the combination of seasonal conditions, agronomic factors and relative prices. Delayed and inadequate autumn rainfall have reduced opportunities to plant canola and pulse crops. Prices of grains compared with prices of oilseeds and pulses are expected to add to incentives to plant barley and reduce canola and chickpea plantings. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat and coarse grains production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production.

Commodity export forecasts
• Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 2 per cent from $48 billion in 2017-18. • The net decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of coarse grains, pulses and canola and increased domestic demand for grain. The pace of growth of international prices for beef and veal and other livestock products is also expected to slow as competition increases. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (down 59 per cent), coarse grains (36 per cent), canola (18 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), mutton (6 per cent) and rock lobster (1 per cent). Export earnings for live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged.

• Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for cotton (up 18 per cent), lamb (10 per cent), wool (9 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), beef and veal (2 per cent), dairy products (1 per cent) and wine (1 per cent).

• Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18.

Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions.

• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18.

• On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be slightly below average. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles.

Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Overview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2022-23. The report provides commodity production and export …Show full descriptionOverview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2022-23. The report provides commodity production and export forecasts. It also includes articles and boxes that cover: Farm performance - broadacre and dairy farms; Australia's competitiveness in the fresh produce export market; Changes to China's grain policy; The Peru FTA; Market diversity of Australian wine exports; and, Trends in Australian cotton and horticulture production. Key Issues Commodity production forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent to $59 billion in 2017-18, reflecting an assumed return to average seasonal conditions, before increasing by 3 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The gross value of farm production nevertheless remains high. If realised, the forecast value of farm production in 2018-19 would be around 11 per cent higher than the average of $55 billion over the five years to 2016-17. ◦ The gross value of farm production is forecast to grow steadily over the outlook period to around $63 billion by 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars). Strong demand for livestock and some horticultural products, and improved productivity in cropping, are expected to support growth. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 3 per cent to $29.6 billion in 2018-19, following a forecast increase of 2 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The value of lamb, wool and dairy production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 (as in 2017-18), driven by strong export demand (particularly from China). ◦ The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall slightly, as a decline in export prices offsets an increase in the volume of beef produced. Despite the fall in price, returns are well above the historical average and supportive of farm profitability. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $31 billion in 2018-19, after a forecast decline of 11 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The decline in 2017-18 follows record production of wheat, barley and canola in 2016-17 due to very favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat, coarse grains and canola production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Wheat yields are assumed to improve (and to be around trend) following the frosts, above average temperatures and dry conditions during the winter of 2017. Area planted to coarse grains is forecast to increase due to strong global demand for feed and rotational constraints to planting pulses. Canola production is expected to increase as prices become comparatively favourable to the low coarse grain and falling pulse prices. Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $48.5 billion in 2018-19, slightly higher than the forecast $47 billion in 2017-18. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.5 billion, after increasing by a forecast 5 per cent in 2017-18. • In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for canola (22 per cent), cotton (17 per cent), barley (12 per cent), lamb (9 per cent), wool (7 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), rock lobster (4 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (1 per cent). ◦ Forecast higher prices are a strong contributor to growth in export earnings. In Australian dollar terms, export prices of cotton (11 per cent), wheat (9 per cent), wool (4 per cent), barley (4 per cent), mutton (4 per cent), rock lobster (3 per cent), lamb (2 per cent) and cheese (1 per cent) are forecast to increase in 2018-19. • Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (54 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal, cheese and mutton are forecast to be unchanged. ◦ The decline in export earnings for these commodities is driven by a fall in export prices. Prices for chickpeas (27 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent) are forecast to fall due to increasing global supply and competition. Prices for beef and veal (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent) and canola (1 per cent) are also forecast to decline. • In 2022-23 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $49.6 billion (in 2017-18 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $46 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. ◦ The value of crop exports is projected to be $25.2 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 2.4 per cent higher than the average of $24.6 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $24.4 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 15 per cent higher than the average of $21 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019. From 2020 to 2023 economic growth is assumed to average 3.6 per cent. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3 per cent in 2018-19 and over the medium term to 2022-23. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the forecast average of US78 cents in 2017-18. It is assumed to depreciate further to US74 cents in 2019-20 and remain at that level over the outlook period. • On the supply side, agricultural production is assumed to be consistent with average seasonal conditions in Australia and globally. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

The global feed yeast market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing demand for animal protein and the rising adoption of sustainable and efficient livestock farming practices. The market, currently valued at approximately $5 billion in 2025, is projected to witness a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% between 2025 and 2033, reaching a market size of roughly $8 billion by 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key factors. Firstly, the growing global population necessitates increased livestock production to meet protein demands, creating a strong impetus for feed additives like yeast to improve animal health, feed efficiency, and productivity. Secondly, a growing awareness of the environmental impact of traditional animal farming is pushing the adoption of sustainable alternatives. Yeast-based feed additives contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving overall farm sustainability. Furthermore, the versatility of yeast products, including live yeast, spent yeast, and yeast derivatives, catering to various animal species (poultry, aquatic, livestock) and diverse applications, further enhances market growth. Key players like Lesaffre, Cargill, and Lallemand are actively contributing to innovation and expansion through research and development, strategic partnerships, and geographical diversification. However, certain restraints hinder the market's growth trajectory. Fluctuations in raw material prices, especially those related to agricultural commodities, can impact the overall cost of production and affect market profitability. Additionally, stringent regulations and compliance requirements regarding feed additives in different regions pose a challenge to market players. Despite these challenges, the long-term growth outlook for the feed yeast market remains positive, owing to the increasing demand for high-quality animal protein, the rising adoption of sustainable farming practices, and continuous innovation in yeast-based feed solutions. The market is witnessing a shift towards specialized yeast products tailored to specific animal species and dietary needs, further broadening its applications and driving future growth. Specific segments like live yeast for poultry and spent yeast for livestock are expected to experience faster growth compared to other segments. Geographic expansion is also a key growth strategy with markets in Asia-Pacific and South America showing strong potential.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Overview
The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in June 2018.

Key Issues • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to be relatively unchanged at $60 billion. • Dry conditions are affecting agricultural production in eastern Australia, but strong forecast production in Western Australia, rising grain prices, high livestock prices and a lower Australian dollar are providing support to farm incomes. • Export prices are forecast to increase by around 3% in 2018-19, driven by a decline in the global supply of grains and strong demand for meat products. • Downside risks to Australian agriculture include uncertainty around the duration of the drought in impacted areas, the timing and amount of rain in other regions, and possible disruption to world agricultural markets stemming from protectionist trade measures. Commodity production forecasts
• The value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The decline is expected to be driven by a forecast decline in area planted in the eastern states. Drought conditions across eastern Australia restricted planting opportunities for crops, such as barley, canola and wheat. ◦ Higher forecast prices for canola, coarse grains, cotton and wheat are expected to mitigate the impact of lower crop volumes on the value of production. ◦ Wine grape and sugar production are forecast to rise as producing areas have been less affected by drought. The value of sugar production is nevertheless forecast to decline due to weak international prices. ◦ Horticultural production has increased following a warm winter, boosting production of a range of fruits and vegetables

• The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ Drought in the eastern states has increased cattle and sheep turn-off, lifting meat production and leading to a forecast reduction in herd size. ◦ Dairy production is forecast to increase, as processors continue to offer relatively high milk prices. However, the production response is likely to be dampened by increasing feed and fodder costs. ◦ Wool production is forecast to be lower, constrained by lower flock numbers and poor grazing conditions.

Commodity export forecasts
• Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 5 per cent from $49 billion in 2017-18 • The decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of canola, coarse grains, pulses and wheat and increased domestic demand for grain. Agricultural export prices, measured by the index of unit export returns, are forecast to increase by 3% in 2018-19. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for canola (down 39 per cent), coarse grains (24 per cent), wheat (10 per cent), sugar (9 per cent), wool (2 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal and live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged.

• Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for lamb (up 17 per cent), rice (14 per cent), mutton (13 per cent), cotton (9 per cent), cheese (6 per cent) and rock lobster (3 per cent).

• Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18.

Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions.

• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3.0 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US74 cents in 2018-19, lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18.

• On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be below average. ◦ Dry conditions are forecast to have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles in the eastern states.

Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

Boxes on agricultural issues

Evolving EU biodiesel policies

• Proposed changes to the EU renewable fuels policy could increase demand for Australia's canola exports in the short to medium term. • Since 2010-11 the European Union has been the largest export market for Australian canola. Most canola is imported to produce renewable transport fuel.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields, global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and customer demand trends. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving sharp price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, heightening revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance, to help meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. The industry is typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as wholesalers seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, companies are turning to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour of financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers now offer a broader selection of sustainable options and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.

Agricultural product wholesalers contend with volatile crop yields and global commodity prices, changing government agricultural policies and changing customer demands. Over the five years through 2025, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach €610 billion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has introduced severe disruption to global commodity supply chains, driving huge price rises for wheat, other grains and fertilisers. Agricultural goods prices in the EU have gone up in recent years, mainly due to higher costs for key inputs like cereals, which feed into livestock production. This raises wholesalers’ expenses, and they tend to pass these increases to retailers and customers, which leads to more industry revenue. Many wholesalers use futures and options contracts to manage risk, giving them more stable prices and helping preserve profitability. Also, sustainably produced and ethically sourced agricultural products are in high demand. Many buyers are willing to pay a premium for these items, pushing wholesalers to change how they operate. Some, like Auchan and Avril Group, now work with certified producers such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance. These partnerships allow wholesalers to meet demand for more sustainable and traceable supply chains. In 2025, low business confidence will slow wholesalers’ sales, but high prices should help prevent a larger decline in revenue – it’s expected revenue to shrink by just 0.2%. Wholesaling industries are typically characterised by a narrow profit margin, as they seek to ensure their prices are low enough to prevent wholesale bypass. To raise additional revenue and generate profit, wholesalers turn to providing value-added services like customised packaging and labelling solutions, rigorous quality control and traceability systems to provide assurance of the product journey. Over the five years through 2030, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.1% to €744.8 billion. Agricultural policies across many European countries are decoupling payments and output in favour for financial incentives for rewilding schemes and the creation of public goods, to the detriment of wholesalers. Consumer preferences for sustainable produce will intensify; wholesalers in the industry now offer a broader selection of sustainable options, and the cost of biodegradable or recyclable packaging has dropped, making it easier and more attractive for more wholesalers to adopt these eco-friendly solutions.