This report contains ABARES' latest outlook to 2019-20 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles titled Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2012-13 to 2014-15, Productivity in the broadacre and dairy industries, Profitability and productivity in Australia's beef industry and boxes titled Key agricultural outcomes of recent free trade agreements and Use and supply of barley in China.

A limited number of printed copies will be available by contacting info.abares@agriculture.gov.au

Key Issues Commodity outlook
• Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be about $40.5 billion in 2015-16 compared with a forecast $40.3 billion in 2014-15. • Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2015-16 include wheat (up by 12 per cent), sugar (11 per cent), canola (10 per cent), dairy products (8 per cent) and beef and veal (2 per cent). These forecast increases are expected to be largely offset by forecast falls in export earnings for mutton (39 per cent), cotton (35 per cent), barley (11 per cent) and lamb (8 per cent). • At the end of the outlook period (2019-20), the value of farm exports is projected to be around $41.2 billion (in 2014-15 dollars), 9 per cent higher than the average over the five years to 2013-14. • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 5.3 per cent to around $54.4 billion in 2015-16, following a forecast decrease of 2.9 per cent to $51.6 billion in 2013-14. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 5.6 per cent to $25.9 billion in 2015-16, following a forecast increase of 5.9 per cent in 2014-15. The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 5.1 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2015-16, after a forecast decrease of 9.6 per cent in 2013-14. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 8 per cent to around $1.5 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by a forecast 3 per cent in 2014-15. • The outlook for agricultural commodities is based on the assumption that world economic activity will increase by 3.3 per cent in 2015, the same growth rate as in 2014. World economic growth is assumed to strengthen to 3.8 per cent in 2016, before easing gradually to 3.5 per cent towards 2020. • In Australia, economic activity is assumed to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2014-15, strengthening to 3.5 per cent by 2016-17. Toward 2019-20, economic growth is assumed to average around 3.2 per cent a year. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US76c in 2015-16, compared with an assumed average of US83c in 2014-15. It is assumed to average around US76c from 2015-16 to 2019-20.

Farm financial performance
• Using data from the most recent Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey (AAGIS), ABARES has made projections of average farm cash income for Australian broadacre farms in 2014-15. It is projected that average farm cash income will decline in Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales but increase in Queensland, the Northern Territory and Tasmania. • For Australia as a whole, the average farm cash income of Australian broadacre farms in 2014-15 is projected to be around $114 000 a farm, a fall of 9 per cent from an estimated $124 600 a farm in 2013-14. • It is projected that average farm cash income of dairy farms will decline from an average of $163 900 a farm in 2012-13 to an average of $97 000 a farm in 2014-15, reflecting lower farmgate milk prices. • Broadacre farm debt is estimated to have remained largely unchanged in 2013-14, averaging around $512 500 a farm at 30 June 2014.

Productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries
• Productivity in the broadacre industries grew by 1.1 per cent a year on average between 1977-78 and 2012-13. • This broadacre productivity growth reflects a decline in the use of inputs (-1.0 per cent a year) while achieving modest output growth (0.1 per cent a year). • Dairy industry productivity grew at an annual average rate of 1.7 per cent between 1978-79 and 2012-13. This reflects strong output growth (1.3 per cent a year) and a small reduction in the use of inputs (-0.4 per cent a year).

Profitability and productivity in Australia's beef industry
• Average profitability in the beef industry has been low for many years. At the farm level, technological progress appears to be relatively slow. There is a large proportion of small, generally unprofitable farms that significantly reduce the average profitability per farm for the whole industry.

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU beef industry, world biofuel policies and the South American wine industry.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 6.1 per cent to around $60.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 4.2 per cent increase to $56.7 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to decrease by 2.2 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 14.7 per cent to $31.7 billion in 2016-17. This reflects forecast increases in the gross value of horticulture and cotton production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to increase by 6.7 per cent to $47.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.4 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.6 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wheat (up 25 per cent), wool (3 per cent), sugar (23 per cent), wine (3 per cent), barley (15 per cent), cotton (56 per cent), chickpeas (74 per cent), lamb (4 per cent), canola (33 per cent) and rock lobster (6 per cent). • The forecast increases in export earnings are expected to be partly offset by forecast falls in beef and veal (down 17 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (17 per cent) and mutton (12 per cent). Export earnings for dairy products are expected to remain largely unchanged. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 3.4 per cent to $1.6 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7.1 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US75 cents in 2016-17, slightly higher than the average of US73 cents in 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU beef industry
• The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers and importers of beef. Access to the EU market is controlled by strict animal health requirements and various quotas, which limit the amount of beef that can be imported. • As the European Union is a high value market for beef, improved access for Australia from a free trade agreement would likely lead to increased exports to this market.

Oils ain't oils
• Biofuel policies in some of the world's largest biofuel producing economies have the potential to affect returns to Australian agricultural exports such as canola, sugar and coarse grains. • This article looks at recent developments in the world's leading biofuel producers and consumers (the United States, European Union and Brazil) and discusses the expected impact on world commodity prices in 2016-17 and the high-level implications for agricultural commodities in the medium term. South American wine industry
• South America is a major world producer and exporter of wine, accounting for almost 14 per cent of world production. Wine exports from South America have increased markedly in the past 15 years and its wine increasingly competes in Australia's major and emerging export markets. • This article focuses on the development of the Argentine and Chilean wine industries, with a focus on their competitiveness with Australian wine exports.

Overview This report contains ABARES' latest outlook to 2020-21 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles titled: • Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2013-14 to 2015-16 • Productivity in Australian broadacre and dairy industries • Disaggregating farm performance statistics by size. A limited number of printed copies will be available by contacting info.abares@agriculture.gov.au

Key Issues Commodity outlook
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 2.7 per cent to around $60.3 billion in 2016-17, following a forecast increase of 9.3 per cent to $58.7 billion in 2015-16. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 1.8 per cent to $30.8 billion in 2016-17, following a forecast increase of 13.3 per cent in 2015-16. The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3.7 per cent to $29.5 billion in 2016-17, after a forecast increase of 5.3 per cent in 2015-16. • In 2020-21, the gross value of farm production is projected to be $58.5 billion (in 2015-16 dollars), 11 per cent higher than the average of $52.6 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in real terms. The gross value of crop production is projected to be $28.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to reach $30.4 billion (all in 2015-16 dollars). • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $45.0 billion in 2016-17, slightly lower than the forecast $45.2 billion in 2015-16. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 7 per cent), dairy products (4 per cent), sugar (7 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (9 per cent), cotton (22 per cent) and canola (13 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by expected declines in export earnings for beef and veal (down 4 per cent), wheat (1 per cent), lamb (3 per cent) and mutton (11 per cent). • In 2020-21 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $45.3 billion (in 2015-16 dollars), 11 per cent higher than the average of $40.7 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in real terms. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay at around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by a forecast 15.6 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying the commodity outlook
• World economic activity is forecast to increase by 3.2 per cent in 2016 and 3.4 per cent in 2017. World economic growth is expected to rise further to around 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019 before falling to 3.5 per cent in 2020 and 2021. • In Australia, economic growth is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, and 2.8 per cent in 2016-17. Toward 2020-21, economic growth is assumed to average around 2.7 per cent. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US71 cents in both 2015-16 and 2016-17. It is assumed to gradually appreciate over the medium term, reaching US74 cents towards 2020-21.

Overview The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018. Overview • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion. • An increase in global economic growth and declines in some global crop supplies are forecast to support average farm export unit values. • Downside risks to the Australian agricultural sector are the prolonged dry spell in some parts of Australia and economic and trade factors facing Australia'!!s key export markets. Commodity production forecasts • The value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. The value of farm production is around 11 per cent higher than the 10 year average of $55 billion (in 2017-18 dollars). • The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The value of lamb and wool production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 because of strong forecast price growth. The volume of dairy production is expected to increase modestly, despite rising feed costs after consecutive years of low prices for grain and hay. The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall, as declining saleyard prices more-than offset increases in the volume of beef produced. • The value of crop production is forecast to remain unchanged at $31 billion in 2018-19. This follows an estimated decline of 8 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ In 2018-19 a change in the mix of grain crops is expected due to the combination of seasonal conditions, agronomic factors and relative prices. Delayed and inadequate autumn rainfall have reduced opportunities to plant canola and pulse crops. Prices of grains compared with prices of oilseeds and pulses are expected to add to incentives to plant barley and reduce canola and chickpea plantings. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat and coarse grains production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 2 per cent from $48 billion in 2017-18. • The net decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of coarse grains, pulses and canola and increased domestic demand for grain. The pace of growth of international prices for beef and veal and other livestock products is also expected to slow as competition increases. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (down 59 per cent), coarse grains (36 per cent), canola (18 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), mutton (6 per cent) and rock lobster (1 per cent). Export earnings for live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged. • Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for cotton (up 18 per cent), lamb (10 per cent), wool (9 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), beef and veal (2 per cent), dairy products (1 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18. • On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be slightly below average. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles. Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

In fiscal year 2024, the value of primary industry exports from New South Wales was the highest in the broadacre crops sector, amounting to around 5.7 billion Australian dollars. Nonetheless, this marked a significant decrease from the previous year, in which the state's broadacre crop exports were valued at over eight billion Australian dollars. The forestry sector witnessed the largest growth in export value in the 2024 financial year, rising by approximately 25.7 percent from the previous year.

Overview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2022-23. The report provides commodity production and export …Show full descriptionOverview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2022-23. The report provides commodity production and export forecasts. It also includes articles and boxes that cover: Farm performance - broadacre and dairy farms; Australia's competitiveness in the fresh produce export market; Changes to China's grain policy; The Peru FTA; Market diversity of Australian wine exports; and, Trends in Australian cotton and horticulture production. Key Issues Commodity production forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent to $59 billion in 2017-18, reflecting an assumed return to average seasonal conditions, before increasing by 3 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The gross value of farm production nevertheless remains high. If realised, the forecast value of farm production in 2018-19 would be around 11 per cent higher than the average of $55 billion over the five years to 2016-17. ◦ The gross value of farm production is forecast to grow steadily over the outlook period to around $63 billion by 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars). Strong demand for livestock and some horticultural products, and improved productivity in cropping, are expected to support growth. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 3 per cent to $29.6 billion in 2018-19, following a forecast increase of 2 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The value of lamb, wool and dairy production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 (as in 2017-18), driven by strong export demand (particularly from China). ◦ The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall slightly, as a decline in export prices offsets an increase in the volume of beef produced. Despite the fall in price, returns are well above the historical average and supportive of farm profitability. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $31 billion in 2018-19, after a forecast decline of 11 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The decline in 2017-18 follows record production of wheat, barley and canola in 2016-17 due to very favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat, coarse grains and canola production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Wheat yields are assumed to improve (and to be around trend) following the frosts, above average temperatures and dry conditions during the winter of 2017. Area planted to coarse grains is forecast to increase due to strong global demand for feed and rotational constraints to planting pulses. Canola production is expected to increase as prices become comparatively favourable to the low coarse grain and falling pulse prices. Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $48.5 billion in 2018-19, slightly higher than the forecast $47 billion in 2017-18. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.5 billion, after increasing by a forecast 5 per cent in 2017-18. • In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for canola (22 per cent), cotton (17 per cent), barley (12 per cent), lamb (9 per cent), wool (7 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), rock lobster (4 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (1 per cent). ◦ Forecast higher prices are a strong contributor to growth in export earnings. In Australian dollar terms, export prices of cotton (11 per cent), wheat (9 per cent), wool (4 per cent), barley (4 per cent), mutton (4 per cent), rock lobster (3 per cent), lamb (2 per cent) and cheese (1 per cent) are forecast to increase in 2018-19. • Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (54 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal, cheese and mutton are forecast to be unchanged. ◦ The decline in export earnings for these commodities is driven by a fall in export prices. Prices for chickpeas (27 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent) are forecast to fall due to increasing global supply and competition. Prices for beef and veal (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent) and canola (1 per cent) are also forecast to decline. • In 2022-23 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $49.6 billion (in 2017-18 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $46 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. ◦ The value of crop exports is projected to be $25.2 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 2.4 per cent higher than the average of $24.6 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $24.4 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 15 per cent higher than the average of $21 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019. From 2020 to 2023 economic growth is assumed to average 3.6 per cent. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3 per cent in 2018-19 and over the medium term to 2022-23. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the forecast average of US78 cents in 2017-18. It is assumed to depreciate further to US74 cents in 2019-20 and remain at that level over the outlook period. • On the supply side, agricultural production is assumed to be consistent with average seasonal conditions in Australia and globally. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles.

Overview This report contains ABARES' latest forecasts for 2016-17 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles on the EU dairy industry and Australia's trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.1 per cent to around $58.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 6.3 per cent increase to $57.8 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 12 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to stay around $29.8 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 10.9 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to $28.6 billion in 2016-17, after an estimated increase of 1.8 per cent in 2015-16. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross value of sugar, cotton and horticultural production offsetting the forecast decreases in the gross value of grain production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $43.0 billion in 2016-17, 2.5 per cent lower than $44.1 billion in 2015-16. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 6 per cent), sugar (14 per cent), lamb (1 per cent), cotton (21 per cent), canola (12 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by forecast falls in export earnings for beef and veal (down 9 per cent), wheat (7 per cent), dairy products (6 per cent), barley (2 per cent), chickpeas (43 per cent) and mutton (18 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 16.7 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU dairy industry
• The EU dairy industry is supported by domestic and trade policies implemented through the Common Agricultural Policy. • Without a change to the existing trade barriers for Australian dairy exports and stronger European demand for imported dairy products generally, Australian exports to that market are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. Trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables
• Australia is a significant net exporter of fresh fruit, fresh vegetables and tree nuts. • Changing diets in Asia's middle class, the depreciation of the Australian dollar and improved market access following the negotiation of several FTAs have supported exports of Australian fresh horticultural produce.

Overview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2021-22. The outlook will be an important focal point at the …Show full descriptionOverview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2021-22. The outlook will be an important focal point at the conference and underpin many presentations delivered by ABARES speakers at the conference. The report provides updated commodity forecasts, as well as articles on the EU sheep meat industry; farm performance of broadacre and dairy farms; productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries; and disaggregating farm performance by size. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8.3 per cent to a record $63.8 billion in 2016-17 before easing by 3.9 per cent to a forecast $61.3 billion in 2017-18. Despite the forecast decline, the gross value of farm production in 2017-18 would be 17.3 per cent higher than the average of $52.3 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 4.4 per cent to $31.2 billion in 2017-18, following a forecast decrease of 2.6 per cent in 2016-17. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of livestock production in 2017-18 would be around 28 per cent higher than the average of $24.4 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 11.3 per cent to $30 billion in 2017-18, after a forecast increase of 20.2 per cent in 2016-17. The decrease follows record production of wheat and barley in 2016-17, which resulted from favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of crop production in 2017-18 would be around 8 per cent higher than the average of $27.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • In 2021-22 the gross value of farm production is projected to be around $59.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8.6 per cent higher than the average of $54.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 (also in 2016-17 dollars). In 2021-22 the gross value of crop production is projected to be around $29.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to be around $30.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars). • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $48.7 billion in 2017-18, higher than the forecast $47.7 billion in 2016-17. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2017-18 are beef and veal (up 1 per cent), wool (10 per cent), dairy products (11 per cent), sugar (10 per cent), cotton (35 per cent), wine (5 per cent), lamb (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (4 per cent), rock lobster (6 per cent) and mutton (1 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2017-18 are expected to be partly offset by expected declines in export earnings for wheat (down 9 per cent), coarse grains (11 per cent), canola (6 per cent) and chickpeas (42 per cent). • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of wool, dairy products, sugar, wine, lamb, barley, canola, rock lobster and mutton are forecast to increase in 2017-18. Export prices for cotton and chickpeas are forecast to fall. Prices for beef and veal, wheat and live feeder/slaughter cattle are forecast to remain around the same as in 2016-17. • In 2021-22 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $46.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $43.1 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • The value of crop exports is projected to be $24.9 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 7 per cent higher than the average of $23.2 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $21.8 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 10 per cent higher than the average of $19.8 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2017-18 to $1.5 billion, after decreasing by a forecast 3.4 per cent in 2016-17. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.4 per cent in 2018. Growth is expected to rise further to around 3.5 per cent in 2019 before declining to 3.4 per cent in 2021 and 3.3 per cent in 2022. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. Over the medium term to 2021-22, economic growth is assumed to average around 3 per cent. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2017-18, slightly lower than the forecast average of US75 cents in 2016-17. It is assumed to appreciate slightly over the medium term, reaching US74 cents towards 2021-22. Articles on agricultural issues The EU sheep meat industry • The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers of sheep meat. Imports are controlled by import quotas and prohibitive out-of-quota tariffs. • Australia is the second largest exporter to the European Union, behind New Zealand, although its allocated quota is just 8 per cent that of New Zealand's. • As a high value market for sheep meat, expanding sheep meat exports to the European Union would benefit the Australian industry. However, until the trade outcomes of Brexit are known, opportunities for Australian sheep meat exporters are uncertain. Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2014-15 to 2016-17 • In 2016-17 farm cash income for Australian broadacre farms is projected to average $216,000 a farm, the highest recorded in the past 20 years. • Record broadacre farm cash incomes this year are the result of near record winter grain production in most regions and good prices for beef cattle, sheep, lamb and wool. • Average farm cash income is projected to increase for broadacre farms in all states except Tasmania in 2016-17. • Farm cash income for dairy farms is projected to decline by 17 per cent nationally to an average of $105,000 a farm in 2016-17, reflecting lower average farmgate milk prices and reduced milk production. Productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries • From 1977-78 to 2014-15, productivity in the broadacre industries averaged 1.1 per cent a year as a result of declining input use (down 1 per cent a year) and modest output growth (up 0.1 per cent a year). • In the dairy industry, productivity growth averaged 1.5 per cent a year between 1978-79 and 2014-15. This reflected average annual growth of 1.3 per cent in output and an average annual decline of 0.2 per cent in input use. Disaggregating farm performance by size • The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms produced 46 per cent of total output, while the smallest 50 per cent of farms produced 12 per cent of total output. • The average rate of return, including capital appreciation, generated by the largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms was 8.2 per cent, while the smallest 10 per cent generated average returns of -2.8 per cent. • The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms had the lowest average equity ratio of all farms (79 per cent), while the smallest 10 per cent of farms had the highest average equity ratio (97 per cent).

As of March 2025, Elders Limited was the leading agricultural product company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), with a market cap of 1.3 billion Australian dollars. The previous leading agricultural product company, Costa Group, was delisted from the ASX earlier in 2024 after being bought out by a North American-based consortium made up of Paine Schwartz Partners, Driscoll’s Inc, and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation. Major agricultural exporter Despite its relatively small contribution to the country’s total GDP, agriculture remains a crucial economic sector in Australia, with agricultural commodities trade forming a notable share of Australia’s total exports value each year. While the value of agricultural exports from Australia declined in 2021, the industry grew substantially in 2022 and 2023. Australia’s agriculture industry has remained resilient, as the Australian Government has continued investing in agricultural development and food security. Market leader Elders Limited Founded in 1839 in South Australia, Elders Limited, now among Australia’s most trusted agribusinesses, mainly operates in the Branch Network, Wholesale Products, and Feed and Processing Services segments. Elders Ltd supports primary producers in Australia and New Zealand throughout the production cycle by offering an array of agricultural products and financial services, including farm supplies, technical services, insurance, real estate, as well as agency services involving wool, grain, and livestock. In 2024, Elders Ltd reported a sales revenue of over 3.1 billion Australian dollars.

Overview
The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in June 2018.

Key Issues • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to be relatively unchanged at $60 billion. • Dry conditions are affecting agricultural production in eastern Australia, but strong forecast production in Western Australia, rising grain prices, high livestock prices and a lower Australian dollar are providing support to farm incomes. • Export prices are forecast to increase by around 3% in 2018-19, driven by a decline in the global supply of grains and strong demand for meat products. • Downside risks to Australian agriculture include uncertainty around the duration of the drought in impacted areas, the timing and amount of rain in other regions, and possible disruption to world agricultural markets stemming from protectionist trade measures. Commodity production forecasts
• The value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The decline is expected to be driven by a forecast decline in area planted in the eastern states. Drought conditions across eastern Australia restricted planting opportunities for crops, such as barley, canola and wheat. ◦ Higher forecast prices for canola, coarse grains, cotton and wheat are expected to mitigate the impact of lower crop volumes on the value of production. ◦ Wine grape and sugar production are forecast to rise as producing areas have been less affected by drought. The value of sugar production is nevertheless forecast to decline due to weak international prices. ◦ Horticultural production has increased following a warm winter, boosting production of a range of fruits and vegetables

• The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ Drought in the eastern states has increased cattle and sheep turn-off, lifting meat production and leading to a forecast reduction in herd size. ◦ Dairy production is forecast to increase, as processors continue to offer relatively high milk prices. However, the production response is likely to be dampened by increasing feed and fodder costs. ◦ Wool production is forecast to be lower, constrained by lower flock numbers and poor grazing conditions.

Commodity export forecasts
• Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 5 per cent from $49 billion in 2017-18 • The decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of canola, coarse grains, pulses and wheat and increased domestic demand for grain. Agricultural export prices, measured by the index of unit export returns, are forecast to increase by 3% in 2018-19. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for canola (down 39 per cent), coarse grains (24 per cent), wheat (10 per cent), sugar (9 per cent), wool (2 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal and live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged.

• Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for lamb (up 17 per cent), rice (14 per cent), mutton (13 per cent), cotton (9 per cent), cheese (6 per cent) and rock lobster (3 per cent).

• Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18.

Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions.

• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3.0 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US74 cents in 2018-19, lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18.

• On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be below average. ◦ Dry conditions are forecast to have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles in the eastern states.

Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

Boxes on agricultural issues

Evolving EU biodiesel policies

• Proposed changes to the EU renewable fuels policy could increase demand for Australia's canola exports in the short to medium term. • Since 2010-11 the European Union has been the largest export market for Australian canola. Most canola is imported to produce renewable transport fuel.

Overview The December edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in …Show full descriptionOverview The December edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in September 2015. In addition to commodity forecasts, this publication includes two boxes: • seasonal conditions in Australia • farm cash income of broadacre farms and one article: • key agricultural outcomes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Farmer/stakeholder implications The Agricultural commodities report provides high quality and timely information that supports higher farm gate returns through informed decision making by primary producers. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to around $57.6 billion, following an estimated increase of 4 per cent to $53.5 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 17 per cent higher than the average of $49.4 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 13 per cent in 2015-16 to $30.0 billion following an estimated increase of 16 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected increases in the farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool. • The forecast increases in farmgate prices are expected to more than offset a forecast decline of 5 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16. This mainly reflects an assumption of more favourable seasonal conditions in the latter half of 2015-16 leading to reduced slaughter as a result of herd and flock rebuilding. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2015-16 to $27.6 billion alongside an expected increase of 2 per cent in the volume index of crop production. This mainly reflects increases in horticultural production offsetting the falling world prices of grains and oilseeds. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $44.0 billion in 2015-16, following a rise of 6 per cent to an estimated $43.6 billion in 2014-15. At this level, export earnings from farm commodities in 2015-16 would be around 15 per cent higher than the average of $38.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2015-16 include: wheat (up 3 per cent to $5.7 billion), wool (9 per cent to $3.5 billion), wine (3 per cent to $2.1 billion), lamb (1 per cent to $1.7 billion), sugar (8 per cent to $1.4 billion), live feeder/slaughter cattle (16 per cent to $1.3 billion) and chickpeas (56 per cent to $0.6 billion). • These forecast increases are expected to be largely offset by forecast falls in export earnings from beef and veal (down 3 per cent to $8.6 billion), dairy (6 per cent to $2.3 billion), coarse grains (14 per cent to $2.3 billion), canola (8 per cent to $1.2 billion), cotton (21 per cent to $1.2 billion) and mutton (2 per cent to $0.8 billion). • Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 17 per cent to around $1.7 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent to $1.4 billion in 2014-15. • The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated rise of 6 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of the assumed lower value of the Australian dollar, especially against the US dollar. • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of beef and veal, wool, wine, lamb, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, mutton and chickpeas are forecast to increase in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat, barley, sugar and dairy products are forecast to decline. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.1 per cent in 2015 and 3.4 per cent in 2016. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, compared with 2.2 per cent in 2014-15. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US72 cents in 2015-16, 14 per cent lower than the average of US84 cents in 2014-15.

The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, which updates the outlook ABARES released in March 2015. In …Show full descriptionThe June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, which updates the outlook ABARES released in March 2015. In addition to commodity forecasts, this publication also includes boxes about the Australian sugar industry; the beef cattle industry in South America; demand and supply of sorghum in China; reforms to dairy support policies in the European Union; and El Nino and agricultural production. Commodity forecasts • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $41.8 billion in 2015-16, compared with an estimated $42.4 billion in 2014-15. • This would be around 10 per cent higher than the average of $38 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2015-16 include coarse grains (up by 6 per cent), dairy (2 per cent), lamb (2 per cent), live sheep (6 percent), wool (5 per cent) and sugar (5 per cent). • These forecast increases are expected to be more than offset by forecast falls in export earnings for beef and veal (4 per cent), wheat (5 per cent), canola (5 per cent), cotton (33 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (4 per cent) and mutton (13 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 6.3 per cent to around $1.6 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 13.9 per cent to $1.5 billion in 2014-15. • The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated rise of 6.0 per cent in 2014-15. This forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of an assumed lower Australian dollar. • Higher export prices, in Australian dollar terms, are forecast for beef and veal, wool, barley, wine, lamb, canola, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, mutton and dairy products in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat and sugar are forecast to decline. • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 3.1 per cent to around $53.7 billion in 2015-16, following an estimated increase of 2.1 per cent to $52.1 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 9 per cent higher than the average of $49.1 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 5.2 per cent to $27.2 billion in 2015-16, following an estimated increase of 13.1 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected higher farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool, more than offsetting a forecast decline of 4.1 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16 under the assumption of herd and flock rebuilding in the latter half of 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 0.9 per cent to $26.5 billion in 2015-16, following an estimated decrease of 6.8 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects an expected increase of 1.4 per cent in the volume index of crop production. • The volume index of total farm production is forecast to fall by 1.5 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated decline of 0.7 per cent in 2014-15. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts • In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to be 3.4 per cent in 2015 and 3.6 per cent in 2016. • In Australia, economic growth is assumed to average 2.7 per cent in 2015-16, compared with 2.5 per cent in 2014-15. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US76 cents in 2015-16, around 10 per cent lower than the average of US84 cents in 2014-15. El Nino and agricultural production • The Bureau of Meteorology advised that the El Nino in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen. All international climate models surveyed indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Nino thresholds through the coming southern winter and into spring. • The impact of an El Nino event on Australian agricultural production is not uniform and is difficult to predict. While an El Nino event is often, but not always, associated with reduced rainfall in eastern Australia, the timing of rainfall can have a significant effect on crop and pasture production.

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU beef industry, world biofuel policies and the South American wine industry. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • …Show full descriptionOverview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU beef industry, world biofuel policies and the South American wine industry. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 6.1 per cent to around $60.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 4.2 per cent increase to $56.7 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to decrease by 2.2 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 14.7 per cent to $31.7 billion in 2016-17. This reflects forecast increases in the gross value of horticulture and cotton production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to increase by 6.7 per cent to $47.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.4 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.6 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wheat (up 25 per cent), wool (3 per cent), sugar (23 per cent), wine (3 per cent), barley (15 per cent), cotton (56 per cent), chickpeas (74 per cent), lamb (4 per cent), canola (33 per cent) and rock lobster (6 per cent). • The forecast increases in export earnings are expected to be partly offset by forecast falls in beef and veal (down 17 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (17 per cent) and mutton (12 per cent). Export earnings for dairy products are expected to remain largely unchanged. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 3.4 per cent to $1.6 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7.1 per cent in 2015-16. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US75 cents in 2016-17, slightly higher than the average of US73 cents in 2015-16. Articles on agricultural issues The EU beef industry • The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers and importers of beef. Access to the EU market is controlled by strict animal health requirements and various quotas, which limit the amount of beef that can be imported. • As the European Union is a high value market for beef, improved access for Australia from a free trade agreement would likely lead to increased exports to this market. Oils ain't oils • Biofuel policies in some of the world's largest biofuel producing economies have the potential to affect returns to Australian agricultural exports such as canola, sugar and coarse grains. • This article looks at recent developments in the world's leading biofuel producers and consumers (the United States, European Union and Brazil) and discusses the expected impact on world commodity prices in 2016-17 and the high-level implications for agricultural commodities in the medium term. South American wine industry • South America is a major world producer and exporter of wine, accounting for almost 14 per cent of world production. Wine exports from South America have increased markedly in the past 15 years and its wine increasingly competes in Australia's major and emerging export markets. • This article focuses on the development of the Argentine and Chilean wine industries, with a focus on their competitiveness with Australian wine exports.

Overview \r The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018. \r \r Overview \r • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion. \r • An increase in global economic growth and declines in some global crop supplies are forecast to support average farm export unit values. \r • Downside risks to the Australian agricultural sector are the prolonged dry spell in some parts of Australia and economic and trade factors facing Australia'!!s key export markets. \r Commodity production forecasts \r • The value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. The value of farm production is around 11 per cent higher than the 10 year average of $55 billion (in 2017-18 dollars). \r • The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The value of lamb and wool production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 because of strong forecast price growth. The volume of dairy production is expected to increase modestly, despite rising feed costs after consecutive years of low prices for grain and hay. The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall, as declining saleyard prices more-than offset increases in the volume of beef produced. \r \r • The value of crop production is forecast to remain unchanged at $31 billion in 2018-19. This follows an estimated decline of 8 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ In 2018-19 a change in the mix of grain crops is expected due to the combination of seasonal conditions, agronomic factors and relative prices. Delayed and inadequate autumn rainfall have reduced opportunities to plant canola and pulse crops. Prices of grains compared with prices of oilseeds and pulses are expected to add to incentives to plant barley and reduce canola and chickpea plantings. \r ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat and coarse grains production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. \r \r \r Commodity export forecasts \r • Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 2 per cent from $48 billion in 2017-18. \r • The net decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of coarse grains, pulses and canola and increased domestic demand for grain. The pace of growth of international prices for beef and veal and other livestock products is also expected to slow as competition increases. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (down 59 per cent), coarse grains (36 per cent), canola (18 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), mutton (6 per cent) and rock lobster (1 per cent). Export earnings for live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged. \r \r • Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for cotton (up 18 per cent), lamb (10 per cent), wool (9 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), beef and veal (2 per cent), dairy products (1 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). \r \r • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18. \r \r Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts \r \r Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. \r \r • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. \r ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2018-19. \r ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18. \r \r • On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be slightly below average. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles. \r \r Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

Overview

The beef sectors of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay have grown significantly over the past two decades. This report profiles the beef industries of these four beef exporting South American nations, as well as Australia, and evaluates the trends and key factors behind the growth in real export values since 2000. Forward looking scenario analysis based on actual and hypothetical changes to policies and operating environments is undertaken to assess the potential impacts on Australia's future beef exports.

Key issues

Global demand for beef is expected to expand significantly over the next several decades, especially in Asia, which will present opportunities for exporters.

Australia and South America, together, account for almost half of world trade in beef.

South America is emerging as a significant competitor for the Australian beef industry, as market access to Australia's traditional markets is improving.

For the five beef exporting countries profiled in this report, improved market access was the main driver of real export revenue growth (in 2000 US dollar terms) between 2000 and 2014. Other contributing drivers include changes in export supply costs, exchange rate movements and growth in demand for beef.

Three forward-looking scenarios assess the potential change to export growth from 2014 to 2030 from changes in domestic and international operating environments. These include: the removal of Argentine agricultural export requirements; improved market access for South American beef; and improvements in transport infrastructure for Brazil and Australia.

To maintain its export competitiveness, Australia will need to: 1. improve productivity growth both on and off the farm 2. continue to target premium markets and improve market access in order to be responsive to changes in the market 3. maintain a production system that ensures its status as a clean and green beef producer so that it will be able to distinguish itself on quality when it cannot compete on price with lower-cost exporters.

ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2014-15, which updates the forecasts ABARES released in September 2014. Commodity forecasts
• Earnings from farm exports are forecast to fall by 8.6 per cent in 2014-15 to around $37.6 billion. At this forecast level, export earnings in 2014-15 would be around 4 per cent above the average of $36.2 billion over the past decade to 2013-14 in real terms. • The forecast fall in farm export earnings largely reflects expected falls in earnings from cotton (down 37 per cent), barley (36 per cent), canola (44 per cent), wheat (10 per cent) and dairy (20 per cent). • Export earnings are forecast to increase for beef and veal (up 6 per cent), lamb (12 per cent), sugar (7 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (5 per cent) and live sheep (62 per cent). • Earnings from crop exports are forecast to fall by 15.2 per cent to $19.3 billion in 2014-15, following a decline of 1.4 per cent in the previous year. • Export earnings from livestock and livestock products are forecast to fall slightly to $18.3 billion in 2014-15, following an increase of 22.6 per cent in the previous year. • Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent in 2014-15 to around $1.3 billion, following an increase of 11 per cent in 2013-14. • The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to decline by 1.8 per cent in 2014-15, following a rise of 7.4 per cent in 2013-14. • Higher export prices are forecast for beef, sheep meat and wine in 2014-15, while export prices of wheat, barley, cotton and dairy products are forecast to decline. • The gross value of farm production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014-15 to about $50.7 billion, following an estimated increase of 10 per cent to $53.4 billion in 2013-14. • The volume index of farm production is forecast to decrease by 5.9 per cent in 2014-15, following an estimated rise of 5.5 per cent in 2013-14.

Overview The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2017-18, which updates the outlook released in June 2017. Show full descriptionOverview The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2017-18, which updates the outlook released in June 2017. NOTE: Revision published 20th September 2017. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is expected to decrease in 2017-18, reflecting an expected return to average seasonal yields following record production in 2016-17. • The value of farm exports in 2017-18 is expected to decline from 2016-17. Forecast higher export earnings for livestock and livestock products are not expected to offset the forecast fall in export earnings for crops. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.4 per cent in 2017 and 3.5 per cent in 2018. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US77 cents in 2017-18, higher than the average of US75 cents in 2016-17. Articles and boxes on agricultural issues Recent trends in Australian meat consumption • Domestic consumers are the largest market for Australia's beef cattle, sheep, chicken and pig producers. The Australian market has changed markedly in the 30 years to 2016-17, with per person expenditure on meat declining despite an increase in per person consumption, particularly of chicken meat. • Meat consumption in Australia is forecast to average 108.5 kilograms per person in 2017-18, relatively unchanged from the 10 year average to 2016-17. Seasonal conditions in Australia • Following a drier than average start to winter 2017, late season rainfall has increased soil moisture levels, improved prospects for winter crops and benefited pasture growth in southern Australia. • It is likely that this rainfall has arrived too late to benefit winter crop production in northern New South Wales, southern Queensland and northern Western Australia. • The climate outlook for spring 2017 indicates that there is a roughly equal chance of above or below median rainfall for most of Australia Wheat quality explained • Wheat quality is measured by many parameters, including grain hardness, protein content, grain condition and milling characteristics. Quality attributes vary by wheat variety, and are affected by seasonal conditions during crop development, and harvest and post-harvest treatment. Changes to Australia's wool production by micron • Historically the bulk of Australia's wool clip was mid-range fine wool (in the 19.6 to 24.5 micron range). However, changes in export demand have resulted in bi-modal production. • Increased export demand for apparel wool has resulted in a higher proportion of superfine wool (less than 19.6 microns) as a percentage of the total wool clip. Increased demand for sheep meat has also resulted in a greater proportion of coarse wool (greater than 24.5 microns). Changes in Australian production data for 2015-16 onwards • In the 2015-16 Agricultural Census the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) raised the estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) used as the cut-off for the survey. The increased threshold will be applied to all subsequent Rural Environment and Agricultural Commodity Surveys, undertaken by the ABS. • The threshold for inclusion has increased from an EVAO of $5,000 to $40,000. This change reduces the number of agricultural businesses surveyed and therefore lowers estimates of agricultural land area, crop production and livestock numbers. • ABARES has incorporated the ABS figures in this edition of Agricultural commodities and will make all future agricultural forecasts on the basis of the higher cut-off. Understanding ABARES agricultural forecasts • ABARES price forecasting performance over 2016-17 is reviewed and some reasons why forecasts can differ from actual outcomes are discussed.

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU sugar industry, EU almond industry and investment on Australia's farms.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent to around $58.4 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 3.8 per cent increase to $56.5 billion in 2015-16. If realised, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 13 per cent higher than the five-year average of $51.8 billion between 2011-12 and 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at $29.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 6.6 per cent to $29.2 billion in 2016-17. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross values of horticulture, cotton and oilseed production offsetting forecast decreases in the gross values of wheat and barley production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to fall slightly to $44 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.3 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.5 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to fall in 2016-17 are beef and veal (-12 per cent), dairy products (-1 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (-4 per cent), chickpeas (-32 per cent) and mutton (-17 per cent). Export earnings for wheat are expected to remain largely unchanged. • The forecast decreases in 2016-17 are expected to be partly offset by forecast rises in export earnings for wool (6 per cent), sugar (21 per cent), wine (1 per cent), cotton (40 per cent), lamb (3 per cent) and canola (43 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 8 per cent to $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia averaged 2.9 per cent in 2015-16 and is assumed to average 2.7 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU sugar industry
• The EU sugar market is highly regulated, with domestic price support, export subsidies and import restrictions. This stocktake of EU domestic and trade policies that support the EU sugar market will inform government and industry in the lead up to the commencement of Australia-EU FTA negotiations. • Australia's access to the EU sugar market is constrained by a country-specific tariff rate quota. Any improved access through either lower tariffs or increased quota would improve Australia's competitiveness in that market.

The EU almond industry
• The European Union is the world's largest consumer and importer of almonds and has been a growing export market for Australian almonds since 2005-06. • However, significant benefits from an Australian-EU FTA are unlikely for Australian almonds because import tariffs are already low and equal to those faced by the United States, the main supplier to this market.

Investment in Australian farms
• Investment in Australian farms is substantial, with net additions of non-land capital items on broadacre and dairy farms currently worth around $2 billion a year. • Farm operators and their spouses provide most of the capital used to fund the ownership and operation of Australian farms; corporate investors account for less than one-fifth of total capital. The strength of the family farm business structure suggests that corporate investors are unlikely to significantly displace family farmers in the near future.

Overview The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia’s key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in June 2015.

Farmer/stakeholder implications The Agricultural commodities report provides high quality and timely information that supports higher farm gate returns through informed decision making by primary producers.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to around $57.1 billion, following an estimated increase of 4 per cent to $52.8 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $49.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 11 per cent in 2015-16 to $29.1 billion following an estimated increase of 15 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected increases in the farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool. • The forecast increases in farmgate prices are expected to more than offset a forecast decline of 4 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16, which mainly reflects an assumption of more favourable seasonal conditions in the latter half of 2015-16 leading to reduced slaughter as a result of herd and flock rebuilding. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2015-16 to $28.1 billion. This reflects an expected increase of 5 per cent in the volume index of crop production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $43.4 billion in 2015-16, following a rise of 6 per cent to an estimated $43.5 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, export earnings from farm commodities in 2015-16 would be around 14 per cent higher than the average of $38.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • These forecast increases are expected to be offset by forecast falls in export earnings from beef and veal (down 3 per cent to $8.6 billion), dairy (4 per cent to $2.4 billion), lamb (1 per cent to $1.7 billion), sugar (2 per cent to $1.4 billion), live feeder/slaughter cattle (8 per cent to $1.1 billion), cotton (33 per cent to $1.0 billion) and mutton (13 per cent to $0.7 billion). • Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 11 per cent to around $1.6 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent to $1.4 billion in 2014-15. • The index of unit returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2015–16, following an estimated rise of 6 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of an assumed decline in the Australian exchange rate, especially against the US dollar. • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of beef and veal, wool, wine, lamb, canola, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, chickpeas and mutton are forecast to increase in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat, barley, sugar, cotton and dairy products are forecast to decline.

Wheat is one of the most important crops produced in Australia. In financial year 2024, the yield of this winter crop was estimated at 2.1 metric tons per hectare, a notable year-on-year decrease. According to the source, the yield was forecast to increase in 2025. The role of wheat Wheat is grown primarily in Western Australia, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia. Production of wheat in the country has recovered recently, despite a decline in 2024. Both bread wheat and durum wheat are used to produce wheat-based food consumed within the country. Wheat is Australia’s second-largest agriculture export commodity and one of its highest value crops. Most of the wheat produced in Australia was exported to countries within Asia and the Middle East. Challenges to growth Drought has impacted grain production across the country, with the area of land for wheat production dropping to a low in 2020. In 2019, the country imported wheat for the domestic market for the first time in 12 years. This raised biosecurity concerns among grain growers, who were worried about the potential for new weeds or diseases to be introduced. However, a shortfall in high-protein wheat can negatively impact domestic dairy farmers, who require bulk grain for their livestock. Nevertheless, the area for wheat production has since recovered.