In a 2019 analysis, Riverside, California was the most at risk of a housing downturn in a recession out of the ** largest metro areas in the United States. The Californian metro area received an overall score of **** percent, which was compiled after factors such as home price volatility and average home loan-to-value ratio were examined.

Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q2 2025 about sales, median, housing, and USA.

The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost ************* after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to ***********. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States (USSTHPI) from Q1 1975 to Q3 2025 about appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Affordable Housing Market Analysis The global affordable housing market is projected to reach $1,983.52 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.71% from 2025 to 2033. The rising population, urbanization, affordability crisis, and supportive government policies are the primary drivers fueling market growth. The increasing demand for affordable single-family homes, multi-family units, and townhouses, coupled with the adoption of innovative construction methods like prefabrication, 3D printing, and sustainable construction, are key trends shaping the market. The market faces restraints such as escalating land and construction costs, regulatory challenges, and the shortage of skilled labor. Nevertheless, the emergence of crowdfunding platforms and non-profit organizations providing financial assistance, as well as government subsidies and tax incentives, are expected to mitigate these constraints. The market is segmented based on housing type, funding source, construction method, and target demographics. D.R. Horton, Taylor Morrison, PulteGroup, Zillow, Hovnanian Enterprises, and Lennar Corporation are notable companies in the global affordable housing market, with operations in key regions like North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Recent developments include: Recent developments in the Affordable Housing Market have highlighted the urgent need for innovative housing solutions as governments and organizations strive to address the growing housing crisis exacerbated by economic challenges and population growth. Various nations are prioritizing policies that encourage public-private partnerships to stimulate investment in affordable housing initiatives. Additionally, the integration of sustainable building practices and smart technologies is gaining traction as stakeholders aim to improve energy efficiency while reducing construction costs. Recent collaborations among international entities and local governments focus on leveraging funding for housing projects, particularly in urban areas where demand is surging. Moreover, rising material costs and labor shortages are prompting stakeholders to explore alternative building materials and methods, including modular construction and 3D printing, to streamline processes. These trends underscore a collective commitment to creating equitable housing opportunities while navigating the complexities of market dynamics, aiming for significant progress by 2032. Overall, this evolving landscape reflects a concerted effort to promote affordability, sustainability, and accessibility in housing worldwide.. Key drivers for this market are: Green building technologies adoption Public-private partnerships expansion Innovative financing solutions development Urban regeneration projects implementation Digital platforms for housing access. Potential restraints include: rising urbanization, government initiatives; increasing housing demand; socioeconomic disparities; affordable financing options.

Historical anecdotes of new investors being drawn into a booming asset market, only to suffer when the market turns, abound. While the role of investor contagion in asset bubbles has been explored extensively in the theoretical literature, causal empirical evidence on the topic is much rarer. This paper studies the recent boom and bust in the U.S. housing market and establishes that many novice investors entered the market as a direct result of observing investing activity of multiple forms in their own neighborhoods and that “infected” investors performed poorly relative to other investors along several dimensions.

Negative Equity Trends in US Housing Markets

Time Series Data Across Regions and Housing Types

By Zillow Data [source]

About this dataset

• This unique dataset explores the trends in negative equity within US housing markets from 2011 to 2017, allowing users to uncover the various factors and determinants that affected the outcome in each market. With data provided on all home types such as single-family homes, condominiums, and co-ops, as well as special metrics such as cash buyers and affordability analyses, you will be able to gain a comprehensive understanding of how these forces have interacted over time. Using this data you can not only learn more about historical behavior but also make predictions for future trends in these impacts.

• In addition to data collected by Zillow through their own internal resources, they have also partnered with TransUnion and other affiliate sources to give an even more precise look into what has been driving these changing dynamics across US housing markets. Such information includes negative equity metrics which allow us to track actual outstanding home-related debt amounts over time - a valuable resource when evaluating potential investments or relocations!

• And of course with any dataset there are a few guiding principles that one should take note of before delving in – this is especially true when it comes down to copyright issues or prohibited uses; though all data can be freely obtained here for public use - clear attribution of such information is legally required at all times (as stated on Zillow’s very own Terms & Conditions page). Furthermore additional resources such as Mortgage Rate Series or Jumbo Mortgages are also available through Zillow; again making sure that appropriate disclaimers are read before utilizing them.

Regardless this little treasure trove of knowledge is waiting at your fingertips – whether you’re trying your luck investing wise or just looking for an area where renting rates are equitable compared real estate values; it provides everything you need understand regional housing market fluctuations over the last half decade!

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How to use the dataset

This dataset provides historical and current trends in negative equity (the amount a mortgage is underwater) across the United States. It contains negative equity data from Zillow, one of the leading real estate data providers. The dataset covers all housing types (including single family, condominiums and co-ops). Additionally, it includes cash buyers share, mortgage affordability index, rental affordability index and other relative measures of affordability for US metro areas. This guide will help you understand how to use this data set for your own analysis.

Overview of Covered Data:

The dataset contains time series data that shows your current trend in negative equity rate as well as some associated metrics across different scales such as region, county, city and MSA level. To access this information you will need to take following columns into consideration while using this data set:

• RegionName: Name of the region (e.g., city/county/MSA)
• SizeRank: Ranking of the region by size
• RegionType: Type of region (e.g., city/county/state)
• StateName: Name of the state
• MSA: Metropolitan Statistical Area FORMAT_4C A4 RINFOX_ RTI Information Exchange File Format [multi value 9] FORMAT_3E A3 FITS Flexible Image Transport System VERSION 4C 3E 1 Language Indicator 0 0 1 1 DONTCOPY 536880031 FILEEXTN 3 Stream Type buffer 'USTD' file version 2 HNEED 8 FILETYPE 'UDIO' creation date 05 FEB 1985 Source FMT0025 APPLICAT TRAINFORM File Organization Spooled Files DF140520 Header Block Length in Words 682 with Header Offset 636 / ULQUACK INTLCHAN * ETBFMT(V7R2),D*RECORD ACCOUNT CRFTIME FT240187 batch process status continuous Availability Continuous Version number V03C02 LOADAT AT04

Research Ideas

• Analyzing which markets have been disproportionately affected by the housing crisis and utilizing this information to inform investment strategies and...

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Description:

A simple yet challenging project, to predict the housing price based on certain factors like house area, bedrooms, furnished, nearness to mainroad, etc. The dataset is small yet, it's complexity arises due to the fact that it has strong multicollinearity. Can you overcome these obstacles & build a decent predictive model?

Acknowledgement:

Harrison, D. and Rubinfeld, D.L. (1978) Hedonic prices and the demand for clean air. J. Environ. Economics and Management 5, 81–102. Belsley D.A., Kuh, E. and Welsch, R.E. (1980) Regression Diagnostics. Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity. New York: Wiley.

Objective:

• Understand the Dataset & cleanup (if required).
• Build Regression models to predict the sales w.r.t a single & multiple feature.
• Also evaluate the models & compare thier respective scores like R2, RMSE, etc.

Housing markets in the United States and Canada are similar in many respects, but each has fared quite differently since the onset of the financial crisis. A comparison of the two markets suggests that relaxed lending standards likely played a critical role in the U.S. housing bust.

Home prices in the U.S. reach new heights The American housing market continues to show remarkable resilience, with the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reaching an all-time high of 325.78 in July 2024. This figure represents a significant increase from the index value of 166.24 recorded in January 2015, highlighting the substantial growth in home prices over the past decade. The S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index is based on the prices of single-family homes and is the leading indicator of the American housing market and one of the indicators of the state of the broader economy. The S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index series also includes S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index and S&P/Case Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index – measuring the home price changes in the major U.S. metropolitan areas, as well as twenty composite indices for the leading U.S. cities. Market fluctuations and recovery Despite the overall upward trend, the housing market has experienced some fluctuations in recent years. During the housing boom in 2021, the number of existing home sales reached the highest level since 2006. However, transaction volumes quickly plummeted, as the soaring interest rates and out-of-reach prices led to housing sentiment deteriorating. Factors influencing home prices Several factors have contributed to the rise in home prices, including a chronic supply shortage, the gradual decline in interest rates, and the spike in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the subprime mortgage crisis (2007-2010), the construction of new homes declined dramatically. Although it has gradually increased since then, the number of new building permits, home starts, and completions are still shy from the levels before the crisis. With demand outweighing supply, competition for homes can be fierce, leading to bidding wars and soaring prices. The supply of existing homes is further constrained, as homeowners are less likely to sell and move homes due to the worsened lending conditions.

The consumer price of housing in urban areas of the United States increased by over four percent in 2024. 2022 and 2023 saw the largest price increases on a year-over-year basis since 2000. Meanwhile, 2010 was the only year in which housing prices decreased. One of the main reasons for that may have been the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007. During that period, the value of new residential construction put in place in the U.S. stagnated.

In this Economic Commentary , we compare characteristics of the 2000–2006 house-price boom that preceded the Great Recession to the house-price boom that began in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. These two episodes of high house-price growth have important differences, including the behavior of rental rates, the dynamics of housing supply and demand, and the state of the mortgage market. The absence of changes in fundamentals during the 2000s is consistent with the literature emphasizing house-price beliefs during this prior episode. In contrast to during the 2000s boom, changes in fundamentals (including rent and demand growth) played a more dominant role in the 2020s house-price boom.

We analyze whether mid-level managers in securitized finance were aware of a large-scale housing bubble and a looming crisis in 2004-2006 using their personal home transaction data. We find that the average person in our sample neither timed the market nor were cautious in their home transactions, and did not exhibit awareness of problems in overall housing markets. Certain groups of securitization agents were particularly aggressive in increasing their exposure to housing during this period, suggesting the need to expand the incentives-based view of the crisis to incorporate a role for beliefs.

The Fed has recently announced that the housing market shows abnormal trends using statistical models. Does this mean the US is in a housing bubble?

Nahb Housing Market Index in the United States increased to 38 points in November from 37 points in October of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Nahb Housing Market Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Housing Inventory: Median Days on Market in the United States (MEDDAYONMARUS) from Jul 2016 to Oct 2025 about median and USA.

The home mortgage debt of households and nonprofit organizations amounted to approximately 13.46 trillion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2025. Mortgage debt has been growing steadily since 2014, when it was less than ten billion U.S. dollars and has increased at a faster rate since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic due to the housing market boom. Home mortgage sector in the United States Home mortgage sector debt in the United States has been steadily growing in recent years and is beginning to come out of a period of great difficulty and problems presented to it by the economic crisis of 2008. For the previous generations in the United States, the real estate market was quite stable. Financial institutions were extending credit to millions of families and allowed them to achieve ownership of their own homes. The growth of the subprime mortgages and, which went some way to contributing to the record of the highest US homeownership rate since records began, meant that many families deemed to be not quite creditworthy were provided the opportunity to purchase homes. The rate of home mortgage sector debt rose in the United States as a direct result of the less stringent controls that resulted from the vetted and extended terms from which loans originated. There was a great deal more liquidity in the market, which allowed greater access to new mortgages. The practice of packaging mortgages into securities, and their subsequent sale into the secondary market as a way of shifting risk, was to be a major factor in the formation of the American housing bubble, one of the greatest contributing factors to the global financial meltdown of 2008.

The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, was created by the U.S. congress in 1938, in order to maintain liquidity and stability in the domestic mortgage market. The company is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), meaning that while it was a publicly traded company for most of its history, it was still supported by the federal government. While there is no legally binding guarantee of shares in GSEs or their securities, it is generally acknowledged that the U.S. government is highly unlikely to let these enterprises fail. Due to these implicit guarantees, GSEs are able to access financing at a reduced cost of interest. Fannie Mae's main activity is the purchasing of mortgage loans from their originators (banks, mortgage brokers etc.) and packaging them into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to ease the access of U.S. homebuyers to housing credit. The early 2000s U.S. mortgage finance boom During the early 2000s, Fannie Mae was swept up in the U.S. housing boom which eventually led to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The association's stated goal of increasing access of lower income families to housing finance coalesced with the interests of private mortgage lenders and Wall Street investment banks, who had become heavily reliant on the housing market to drive profits. Private lenders had begun to offer riskier mortgage loans in the early 2000s due to low interest rates in the wake of the "Dot Com" crash and their need to maintain profits through increasing the volume of loans on their books. The securitized products created by these private lenders did not maintain the standards which had traditionally been upheld by GSEs. Due to their market share being eaten into by private firms, however, the GSEs involved in the mortgage markets began to also lower their standards, resulting in a 'race to the bottom'. The fall of Fannie Mae The lowering of lending standards was a key factor in creating the housing bubble, as mortgages were now being offered to borrowers with little or no ability to repay the loans. Combined with fraudulent practices from credit ratings agencies, who rated the junk securities created from these mortgage loans as being of the highest standard, this led directly to the financial panic that erupted on Wall Street beginning in 2007. As the U.S. economy slowed down in 2006, mortgage delinquency rates began to spike. Fannie Mae's losses in the mortgage security market in 2006 and 2007, along with the losses of the related GSE 'Freddie Mac', had caused its share value to plummet, stoking fears that it may collapse. On September 7th 2008, Fannie Mae was taken into government conservatorship along with Freddie Mac, with their stocks being delisted from stock exchanges in 2010. This act was seen as an unprecedented direct intervention into the economy by the U.S. government, and a symbol of how far the U.S. housing market had fallen.

Build-to-Rent Housing Market Outlook

As per our latest research, the global Build-to-Rent (BTR) housing market size reached USD 74.3 billion in 2024, reflecting a robust expansion driven by rising demand for professionally managed rental communities. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.1% from 2025 to 2033, reaching an estimated USD 192.2 billion by 2033. This impressive growth trajectory is primarily fueled by evolving lifestyle preferences, increasing urbanization, and a shift in housing affordability, which are collectively redefining the residential real estate landscape worldwide.

One of the most significant growth factors for the Build-to-Rent housing market is the changing demographic profile of urban populations. Young professionals and millennials increasingly prioritize flexibility and convenience over homeownership, leading to a surge in demand for rental properties that offer modern amenities and community-centric living. The BTR model, with its professionally managed services, maintenance support, and enhanced communal facilities, appeals strongly to this demographic. Additionally, the growing number of digital nomads and remote workers is further amplifying the need for adaptable, high-quality rental housing, particularly in metropolitan areas and emerging urban centers.

Another major driver for the Build-to-Rent housing market is the ongoing affordability crisis in many global cities. Escalating property prices and stringent mortgage requirements have made homeownership unattainable for a significant portion of the population, especially in North America and Europe. As a result, institutional investors and real estate developers are capitalizing on this opportunity by expanding their BTR portfolios. The stable, long-term rental income streams offered by BTR assets are particularly attractive to pension funds, insurance companies, and private equity firms seeking diversification and resilience in their investment portfolios.

Technological advancements and innovation in construction methods are also catalyzing the growth of the Build-to-Rent housing market. The adoption of modular and prefabricated construction techniques is enabling developers to accelerate project timelines, reduce costs, and improve sustainability outcomes. These methods are particularly suited to the BTR model, where speed to market and operational efficiency are critical. Furthermore, the integration of smart home technologies and digital management platforms is enhancing tenant experiences and operational transparency, thereby increasing the appeal of BTR properties to both residents and investors.

Regionally, North America and Europe continue to dominate the Build-to-Rent housing market, accounting for a combined market share of over 65% in 2024. However, Asia Pacific is emerging as a high-growth region, driven by rapid urbanization, rising middle-class populations, and supportive government policies. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also witnessing growing interest in the BTR model, particularly in gateway cities with expanding expatriate communities and young workforces. The regional outlook for the BTR market remains highly positive, underpinned by favorable demographic trends and increasing investor appetite for income-generating real estate assets.

Property Type Analysis

The Build-to-Rent housing market is segmented by property type into single-family homes, multi-family apartments, townhouses, and others. Among these, multi-family apartments currently hold the largest market share, accounting for over 55% of the global BTR inventory in 2024. The preference for multi-family developments is rooted in their efficient land use, scalability, and ability to offer a wide array of amenities such as gyms, co-working spaces, and communal lounges. These features are highly attractive to young professionals and urban dwellers seeking community engagement and convenience. Furthermore, mul