This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations for it. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects both very large declines within certain groups of women, including teens and Hispanic women – and smaller declines among demographic groups that comprise a large population share, including college-educated white women. We explore potential economic, policy, and social factors that might be responsible for the overall decline. We conclude from our empirical examination of possible factors that there is not a readily identifiable economic or policy factor or set of factors this is likely responsible for a substantial share of the decline. Instead, the patterns observed suggest that widespread, hard to quantify changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and the nature of parenting are more likely behind the recent decline in US births. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2022, there were 11 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value in recent years. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has declined as of 2021. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

Chart and table of the U.S. birth rate from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

In the United States, the crude birth rate in 1800 was 48.3 live births per thousand people, meaning that 4.8 percent of the population had been born in that year. Between 1815 and 1825 the crude birth rate jumped from 46.5 to 54.7 (possibly due to Florida becoming a part of the US, but this is unclear), but from this point until the Second World War the crude birth rate dropped gradually, reaching 19.2 in 1935. Through the 1940s, 50s and 60s the US experienced it's baby boom, and the birth rate reached 24.1 in 1955, before dropping again until 1980. From the 1980s until today the birth rate's decline has slowed, and is expected to reach twelve in 2020, meaning that just over 1 percent of the population will be born in 2020.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total for the United States (SPDYNTFRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2022 about fertility, rate, and USA.

The fertility rate of a country is the average number of children that women from that country will have throughout their reproductive years. In the United States in 1800, the average woman of childbearing age would have seven children over the course of their lifetime. As factors such as technology, hygiene, medicine and education improved, women were having fewer children than before, reaching just two children per woman in 1940. This changed quite dramatically in the aftermath of the Second World War, rising sharply to over 3.5 children per woman in 1960 (children born between 1946 and 1964 are nowadays known as the 'Baby Boomer' generation, and they make up roughly twenty percent of todays US population). Due to the end of the baby boom and increased access to contraception, fertility reached it's lowest point in the US in 1980, where it was just 1.77. It did however rise to over two children per woman between 1995 and 2010, although it is expected to drop again by 2020, to just 1.78.

The total fertility rate of the world has dropped from around five children per woman in 1950, to 2.3 children per woman in 2023, which means that women today are having fewer than half the number of children that women did 75 years ago. This change has come as a result of the global demographic transition, and is influenced by factors such as the significant reduction in infant and child mortality, reduced number of child marriages, increased educational and vocational opportunities for women, and the increased efficacy and availability of contraception. While this change has become synonymous with societal progress, it does have wide-reaching demographic impact - if the global average falls below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman), as is expected to happen in the 2050s, then this will lead to long-term population decline on a global scale.

When broken down by continent, Africa is the only region with a fertility rate above the global average, while it and Oceania are the only regions with above replacement level fertility rates. Until the 1980s, women in Africa could expect to have almost seven children throughout the course of their lifetimes, and there are still eight countries in Africa where the average woman of childbearing age can still expect to have five or more children in 2023. Historically, Europe has had the lowest fertility rate in the world over the past century, falling below replacement level in 1975 - Europe's population has grown through a combination of migration and increasing life expectancy, however even high immigration rates could not prevent its population from going into decline in 2021.

While the standard image of the nuclear family with two parents and 2.5 children has persisted in the American imagination, the number of births in the U.S. has steadily been decreasing since 1990, with about 3.67 million babies born in 2022. In 1990, this figure was 4.16 million. Birth and replacement rates A country’s birth rate is defined as the number of live births per 1,000 inhabitants, and it is this particularly important number that has been decreasing over the past few decades. The declining birth rate is not solely an American problem, with EU member states showing comparable rates to the U.S. Additionally, each country has what is called a “replacement rate.” The replacement rate is the rate of fertility needed to keep a population stable when compared with the death rate. In the U.S., the fertility rate needed to keep the population stable is around 2.1 children per woman, but this figure was at 1.67 in 2022. Falling birth rates Currently, there is much discussion as to what exactly is causing the birth rate to decrease in the United States. There seem to be several factors in play, including longer life expectancies, financial concerns (such as the economic crisis of 2008), and an increased focus on careers, all of which are causing people to wait longer to start a family. How international governments will handle falling populations remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the declining birth rate is a multifaceted problem without an easy solution.

The statistic shows the 20 countries with the lowest fertility rates in 2024. All figures are estimates. In 2024, the fertility rate in Taiwan was estimated to be at 1.11 children per woman, making it the lowest fertility rate worldwide. Fertility rate The fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman of child-bearing age in a country. Usually, a woman aged between 15 and 45 is considered to be in her child-bearing years. The fertility rate of a country provides an insight into its economic state, as well as the level of health and education of its population. Developing countries usually have a higher fertility rate due to lack of access to birth control and contraception, and to women usually foregoing a higher education, or even any education at all, in favor of taking care of housework. Many families in poorer countries also need their children to help provide for the family by starting to work early and/or as caretakers for their parents in old age. In developed countries, fertility rates and birth rates are usually much lower, as birth control is easier to obtain and women often choose a career before becoming a mother. Additionally, if the number of women of child-bearing age declines, so does the fertility rate of a country. As can be seen above, countries like Hong Kong are a good example for women leaving the patriarchal structures and focusing on their own career instead of becoming a mother at a young age, causing a decline of the country’s fertility rate. A look at the fertility rate per woman worldwide by income group also shows that women with a low income tend to have more children than those with a high income. The United States are neither among the countries with the lowest, nor among those with the highest fertility rate, by the way. At 2.08 children per woman, the fertility rate in the US has been continuously slightly below the global average of about 2.4 children per woman over the last decade.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.

This dataset includes number of births to unmarried women by age group in the United States since 1940. Methods for collecting information on marital status changed over the reporting period and have been documented in: • Ventura SJ, Bachrach CA. Nonmarital childbearing in the United States, 1940–99. National vital statistics reports; vol 48 no 16. Hyattsville, Maryland: National Center for Health Statistics. 2000. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr48/nvs48_16.pdf. • National Center for Health Statistics. User guide to the 2013 natality public use file. Hyattsville, Maryland: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/VitalStatsOnline.htm. SOURCES CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, birth data (see http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm); public-use data files (see http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/Vitalstatsonline.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov/). REFERENCES Curtin SC, Ventura SJ, Martinez GM. Recent declines in nonmarital childbearing in the United States. NCHS data brief, no 162. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db162.pdf. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, et al. Births: Final data for 2015. National vital statistics reports; vol 66 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2017. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf.

Content

The United States Census Bureau’s International Dataset provides estimates of country populations since 1950 and projections through 2050. Specifically, the data set includes midyear population figures broken down by age and gender assignment at birth. Additionally, they provide time-series data for attributes including fertility rates, birth rates, death rates, and migration rates.

The full documentation is available here. For basic field details, please see the data dictionary.

Note: The U.S. Census Bureau provides estimates and projections for countries and areas that are recognized by the U.S. Department of State that have a population of at least 5,000.

Acknowledgements

This dataset was created by the United States Census Bureau.

Inspiration

Which countries have made the largest improvements in life expectancy? Based on current trends, how long will it take each country to catch up to today’s best performers?

Use this dataset with BigQuery

You can use Kernels to analyze, share, and discuss this data on Kaggle, but if you’re looking for real-time updates and bigger data, check out the data on BigQuery, too: https://cloud.google.com/bigquery/public-data/international-census.

Map was updated in 2022 with (2013- 2017) five year birth rates for eight different indicators. Adolescent Fertility (Teen Birth) Rates and Trends, as well as Births By Attendant and Mother's Education. Also depicts population birth rates and percent first born births for the years 1998 through 2013.Comparing the years 2000-04 to the years 2005-09, adolescent fertility rates in NM trended down by 5.3% for women age 15-17 and up by 2.5% for women age 18-19. Comparing the years 2000-04 to the years 2009-13, adolescent fertility rates in NM trended down by 40.6% for women age 15-17 and down by 18.6% for women age 18-19.5 year counts and percentages of births by type of birth attendant for 108 NM Small Areas. In New Mexico (2005-2009) 68% of births were attended by a physician, 27% by a Certified Nurse Midwife, and 2.3% by a Licensed Midwife."Sixty-eight percent of births are attended by a midwife in Britain and 45 percent in the Netherlands, compared with 8 percent in the United States." - https://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/01/health/american-way-of-birth-costliest-in-the-world.htmlSource:Birth Data - NM Department of Health, Vital Records and Health Statistics Bureau, via https://ibis.health.state.nm.us/query/result/birth/BirthPopSarea/FertRate.html

Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

This map service, derived from World Bank data, shows various characteristics of the Health topic. The World Bank Group provides financing, state-of-the-art analysis, and policy advice to help countries expand access to quality, affordable health care; protects people from falling into poverty or worsening poverty due to illness; and promotes investments in all sectors that form the foundation of healthy societies.Age Dependency Ratio: Age dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents--people younger than 15 or older than 64--to the working-age population--those ages 15-64. Data are shown as the proportion of dependents per 100 working-age population. Data from 1960 – 2012.Age Dependency Ratio Old: Age dependency ratio, old, is the ratio of older dependents--people older than 64--to the working-age population--those ages 15-64. Data are shown as the proportion of dependents per 100 working-age population. Data from 1960 – 2012.Birth/Death Rate: Crude birth/death rate indicates the number of births/deaths occurring during the year, per
1,000 population estimated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration. Data spans from 1960 – 2008.Total Fertility: Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with current age-specific fertility rates. Data shown is for 1960 - 2008.Population Growth: Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage.
Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which
counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship--except
for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are
generally considered part of the population of the country of origin. Data spans from 1960 – 2009.Life Expectancy: Life expectancy at birth indicates the number of years a newborn infant
would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life. Data spans from 1960 – 2008.Population Female: Female population is the percentage of the population that is female. Population is based on the de facto definition of population. Data from 1960 – 2009.For more information, please visit: World Bank Open Data. _Other International User Community content that may interest you World Bank World Bank Age World Bank Health

This dataset contains counts of live births to California residents by ZIP Code based on information entered on birth certificates. Final counts are derived from static data and include out-of-state births to California residents. The data tables include births to residents of California by ZIP Code of residence (by residence).

Note that ZIP Codes are intended for mail delivery routing and do not represent geographic regions. ZIP Codes are subject to change over time and may not represent the same locations between different time periods. All ZIP Codes in the list of California ZIP Codes used for validation are included for all years, but this does not mean that the ZIP Code was in use at that time.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the data for the Falling Spring, WV population pyramid, which represents the Falling Spring population distribution across age and gender, using estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2018-2022 5-Year Estimates. It lists the male and female population for each age group, along with the total population for those age groups. Higher numbers at the bottom of the table suggest population growth, whereas higher numbers at the top indicate declining birth rates. Furthermore, the dataset can be utilized to understand the youth dependency ratio, old-age dependency ratio, total dependency ratio, and potential support ratio.

Key observations

• Youth dependency ratio, which is the number of children aged 0-14 per 100 persons aged 15-64, for Falling Spring, WV, is 18.1.
• Old-age dependency ratio, which is the number of persons aged 65 or over per 100 persons aged 15-64, for Falling Spring, WV, is 31.3.
• Total dependency ratio for Falling Spring, WV is 49.4.
• Potential support ratio, which is the number of youth (working age population) per elderly, for Falling Spring, WV is 3.2.

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2018-2022 5-Year Estimates.

Age groups:

• Under 5 years
• 5 to 9 years
• 10 to 14 years
• 15 to 19 years
• 20 to 24 years
• 25 to 29 years
• 30 to 34 years
• 35 to 39 years
• 40 to 44 years
• 45 to 49 years
• 50 to 54 years
• 55 to 59 years
• 60 to 64 years
• 65 to 69 years
• 70 to 74 years
• 75 to 79 years
• 80 to 84 years
• 85 years and over

Variables / Data Columns

• Age Group: This column displays the age group for the Falling Spring population analysis. Total expected values are 18 and are define above in the age groups section.
• Population (Male): The male population in the Falling Spring for the selected age group is shown in the following column.
• Population (Female): The female population in the Falling Spring for the selected age group is shown in the following column.
• Total Population: The total population of the Falling Spring for the selected age group is shown in the following column.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for Falling Spring Population by Age. You can refer the same here

Abstract (en): This collection provides information on live births in the United States during the calendar year 2011. The natality data in these files are a component of the vital statistics collection effort maintained by the federal government. Birth data is limited to births occurring in the United States to United States residents and nonresidents. Births occurring to United States citizens outside of the United States are not included in this data collection. Dataset 1 contains data on births occurring within the United States, while Dataset 2 contains data on births occurring in the United States territories of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Variables describe the place of delivery, who was in attendance, and medical and health data such as the method of delivery, prenatal care, tobacco use during pregnancy, pregnancy history, medical risk factors, and infant health characteristics. Birth rates, fertility rates, and other aggregate statistics can be found in the Detailed Technical Notes section of the ICPSR User Guide. Demographic information includes the child's sex and month and year of birth, the parents' ages, races, ethnicities, education levels, as well as the mother's marital status and residency status. This report presents detailed data on numbers and characteristics of births in 2011, birth and fertility rates, maternal demographic and health characteristics, place and attendant at birth, and infant health characteristics within the United States and its territories. The data are not weighted and no weight variables are present in the collection. ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection: Created variable labels and/or value labels.; Created online analysis version with question text.; Checked for undocumented or out-of-range codes.. Live births in the United States and its territories during calendar year 2011. Smallest Geographic Unit: County One-hundred percent of birth certificates in calendar year 2011. record abstractsThe territories file, which includes data on births occurring in Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands, includes limited geographic detail. Information identifying individual territories and counties with populations of 100,000 or more by place of occurrence and residence are available in this file.This collection includes data based on both the 1989 Revision of the U.S. Standard Certificate of Live Birth (unrevised) and the 2003 Revision of the U.S. Standard Certificate of Live Birth (revised). However, in general, only data comparable between 1989 and 2003 revisions and data exclusive to the 2003 revision are included. Beginning with the 2005 data year, the micro-data natality file no longer includes geographic detail (e.g., state or county of birth). Information on the NCHS data release policy is available through the National Center for Health Statistics Web site. Tabulations of birth data by state and for counties with populations of 100,000 or more may be made using VitalStats. Procedures for requesting micro-data files with geographic detail are provided in the National Center for Health Statistics data release policy.Beginning with the 2007 data year, data items such as maternal anemia, ultrasound, and alcohol use are no longer available in public use files.Beginning with the 2011 data year, unrevised data for educational attainment, prenatal care, and type of vaginal and cesarean delivery are no longer included in the data files. Data for these items from the 1989 revision are not comparable with data from the 2003 revision. For additional information on the Natality Detail File Series, please visit the National Center for Health Statistics Web site.

"This CD-ROM contains tables and other pertinent documents for Vital Statistics of the United States, 2000, Volume I, Natality. The collection provides information on live births in the United States during calendar year 2000. Some tables include information for 2000 as well as years prior to 2000. Data are presented in table format and include live births, birthrates, and fertility rates by several variables including geographic area; mother's age, race, education, marital status, and Hispan ic origin; father's age, race, and Hispanic origin; child's race; Apgar score; birthweight; live-birth order; parity; place of delivery and attendant; plurality; prenatal care; day of birth, and resident status. Births to nonresidents of the US are excluded from all tabulations by place of residence. Births occurring to US citizens outside of the US are not included. Geographic variables describing residence for births include state, county, city, standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA), urban places, and the United States or all reporting areas." Note to Users: This CD is part of a collection located in the Data Archive at the Odum Institute for Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The collection is located in Room 10, Manning Hall. Users may check out the CDs, subscribing to the honor system. Items may be checked out for a period of two weeks. Loan forms are located adjacent to the collection.

In 2023, women in households with an income below the poverty threshold had the highest birth rate in the United States, at 72 births per 1,000 women.