The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

In the United States, interest rates for all mortgage types started to increase in 2021. This was due to the Federal Reserve introducing a series of hikes in the federal funds rate to contain the rising inflation. In the first quarter of 2024, the 30-year fixed rate declined slightly, to 6.75 percent. Despite the cut, this was about 3.9 percentage points higher than the same quarter in 2021. Why have U.S. home sales decreased? Cheaper mortgages normally encourage consumers to buy homes, while higher borrowing costs have the opposite effect. As interest rates increased in 2022, the number of existing homes sold plummeted. Soaring house prices over the past 10 years have further affected housing affordability. Between 2013 and 2023, the median price of an existing single-family home risen by about 88 percent. On the other hand, the median weekly earnings have risen much slower. Comparing mortgage terms and rates Between 2008 and 2023, the average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States stood between 2.28 and 6.11 percent. Over the same period, a 30-year mortgage term averaged a fixed-rate of between 3.08 and 6.81 percent. Rates on 15-year loan terms are lower to encourage a quicker repayment, which helps to improve a homeowner’s equity.

Following the drastic increase directly after the COVID-19 pandemic, the delinquency rate started to gradually decline, falling to 3.37 percent in the second quarter of 2023. In the four quarters, the delinquency rate increased slightly, reaching 3.97 percent. That was significantly lower than the 8.22 percent during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter of 2020 or the peak of 9.3 percent during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2010. What does the mortgage delinquency rate tell us?The mortgage delinquency rate is the share of the total number of mortgaged home loans in the U.S. where payment is overdue by 30 days or more. Many borrowers are eventually able to service their loan, though, as indicated by the markedly lower foreclosure rates. Total home mortgage debt in the U.S. stood at almost 13 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023. Not all mortgage loans are made equal‘Subprime’ loans, being targeted at high-risk borrowers and generally coupled with higher interest rates to compensate for the risk. These loans have far higher delinquency rates than conventional loans. Defaulting on such loans was one of the triggers for the 2007-2010 financial crisis, with subprime delinquency rates reaching almost 26 percent around this time. These higher delinquency rates translate into higher foreclosure rates, which peaked at just under 15 percent of all subprime mortgages in 2011.

Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans had the highest delinquency rate in the United States in 2024. As of the second quarter of the year, 10.6 percent of one-to-four family housing mortgage loans were 30 days or more delinquent. This percentage was lower for conventional loans and Veterans Administration loans. Despite a slight increase, the delinquency rate for all mortgages was one of the lowest on record.

The foreclosure rate in the United States has experienced significant fluctuations over the past two decades, reaching its peak in 2010 at 2.23 percent following the financial crisis. Since then, the rate has steadily declined, with a notable drop to 0.11 percent in 2021 due to government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, the rate stood slightly higher at 0.23 percent but remained well below historical averages, indicating a relatively stable housing market. Impact of economic conditions on foreclosures The foreclosure rate is closely tied to broader economic trends and housing market conditions. During the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the share of non-performing mortgage loans climbed significantly, with loans 90 to 180 days past due reaching 4.6 percent. Since then, the share of seriously delinquent loans has dropped notably, demonstrating a substantial improvement in mortgage performance. Among other things, the improved mortgage performance has to do with changes in the mortgage approval process. Homebuyers are subject to much stricter lending standards, such as higher credit score requirements. These changes ensure that borrowers can meet their payment obligations and are at a lower risk of defaulting and losing their home. Challenges for potential homebuyers Despite the low foreclosure rates, potential homebuyers face significant challenges in the current market. Homebuyer sentiment worsened substantially in 2021 and remained low across all age groups through 2024, with the 45 to 64 age group expressing the most negative outlook. Factors contributing to this sentiment include high housing costs and various financial obligations. For instance, in 2023, 52 percent of non-homeowners reported that student loan expenses hindered their ability to save for a down payment.

The mortgage delinquency rate for Veterans Administration (VA) loans in the United States has decreased since 2020. Under the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the mortgage delinquency rate for VA loans spiked from 2.81 percent in the first quarter of 2020 to 8.05 percent in the second quarter of the year. In the second quarter of 2024, the delinquency rate amounted to 4.63 percent. Historically, VA mortgages have significantly lower delinquency rate than conventional mortgages.

In 2023, United Wholesale Mortgage was the largest mortgage provider in the United States, with nearly 108.5 billion U.S. dollars in mortgage lending. In terms of number of mortgage originations, United Wholesale Mortgage also ranked the highest. How do home buyers finance their home purchase? The most common way to finance a new home is via a mortgage, while only a small fraction of home sales is paid in cash. When it comes to different types of housing loans, there are also various options, such as conventional, FHA insured, and VA guaranteed. FHA insured loans are mortgages provided by approved lenders and insured by the Federal Housing Authority. Because of the lower risk associated, home buyers can pay a smaller down payment or have lower credit score. Similarly, VA loans are guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs and are available for veterans, service members, and their surviving spouses. Purchase vs refinance mortgages Once a home buyer has taken out a mortgage for a new home, they can later renegotiate the conditions of the loan to shorten or extend the loan term, obtain a lower interest rate, or convert the home’s equity into cash. When mortgage rates were at their lowest in 2020 and 2021, refinance mortgages surged, while purchase mortgages increased at a lower rate.