The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

In the United States, interest rates for all mortgage types started to increase in 2021. This was due to the Federal Reserve introducing a series of hikes in the federal funds rate to contain the rising inflation. In the first quarter of 2024, the 30-year fixed rate declined slightly, to 6.75 percent. Despite the cut, this was about 3.9 percentage points higher than the same quarter in 2021. Why have U.S. home sales decreased? Cheaper mortgages normally encourage consumers to buy homes, while higher borrowing costs have the opposite effect. As interest rates increased in 2022, the number of existing homes sold plummeted. Soaring house prices over the past 10 years have further affected housing affordability. Between 2013 and 2023, the median price of an existing single-family home risen by about 88 percent. On the other hand, the median weekly earnings have risen much slower. Comparing mortgage terms and rates Between 2008 and 2023, the average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States stood between 2.28 and 6.11 percent. Over the same period, a 30-year mortgage term averaged a fixed-rate of between 3.08 and 6.81 percent. Rates on 15-year loan terms are lower to encourage a quicker repayment, which helps to improve a homeowner’s equity.

Mortgage interest rates worldwide varied greatly in 2024, from less than four percent in many European countries, to as high as 44 percent in Turkey. The average mortgage rate in a country depends on the central bank's base lending rate and macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and forecast economic growth. Since 2022, inflationary pressures have led to rapid increase in mortgage interest rates. Which are the leading mortgage markets? An easy way to estimate the importance of the mortgage sector in each country is by comparing household debt depth, or the ratio of the debt held by households compared to the county's GDP. In 2023, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada had some of the highest household debt to GDP ratios worldwide. While this indicator shows the size of the sector relative to the country’s economy, the value of mortgages outstanding allows to compare the market size in different countries. In Europe, for instance, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France were the largest mortgage markets by outstanding mortgage lending. Mortgage lending trends in the U.S. In the United States, new mortgage lending soared in 2021. This was largely due to the growth of new refinance loans that allow homeowners to renegotiate their mortgage terms and replace their existing loan with a more favorable one. Following the rise in interest rates, the mortgage market cooled, and refinance loans declined.

After a period of record-low mortgage interest rates, the cost of mortgage borrowing in Germany surged in 2022. In 2019, mortgage rates declined notably, falling as low as 1.16 percent in December 2020. This downward trend reversed in 2021, as mortgage rates started to gradually pick up. Five-to-ten-year mortgage loans had the lowest rates in October 2023 at 3.85 percent, while floating rate mortgages up to one year were the most expensive at 5.53 percent. Mortgages with over 10-year fixed period – the most popular loan type among homebuyers - had an interest rate of 3.9 percent.

Why did mortgage rates in Germany increase?

In 2022, the yearly inflation rate in Germany experienced a swift rise, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates to counter this surge. The European Central Bank (ECB) is responsible for determining Germany's central bank interest rate. In July 2022, following a prolonged period of stability, the average interest rates in Germany began a steady rise, which persisted consistently thereafter.  This increase is intended to stabilize prices, but it also means higher borrowing costs for those seeking mortgages.

Downturn in Germany's home loan borrowing

From 2022 onward, the gross residential mortgage lending in Germany fell dramatically. Besides the higher interest rates, the downturn can be explained by the slowed pace of economic growth, which makes individuals and businesses more cautious about big investments such as buying a home. Additionally, the German housing market suffers a chronic undersupply, meaning that homebuyers often struggle to find an affordable home to purchase.

Mortgage rates increased at a record pace in 2022, with the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubling between March 2022 and December 2022. With inflation increasing, the Bank of England introduced several bank rate hikes, resulting in higher mortgage rates. In September 2023, the average 10-year fixed rate interest rate reached 5.1 percent. As borrowing costs get higher, demand for housing is expected to decrease, leading to declining market sentiment and slower house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold declined in 2022, reaching close to 1.3 million. Despite the number of transactions falling, this figure was higher than the period before the COVID-10 pandemic. The falling transaction volume also impacted mortgage borrowing. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans fell year-on-year for fourth straight quarters in a row. How are higher mortgages affecting homebuyers? Homeowners with a mortgage loan usually lock in a fixed rate deal for two to ten years, meaning that after this period runs out, they need to renegotiate the terms of the loan. Many of the mortgages outstanding were taken out during the period of record-low mortgage rates and have since faced notable increases in their monthly repayment. About five million homeowners are projected to see their deal expire by the end of 2026. About two million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to 199 British pounds by 2026.

The mortgage interest rate in Germany decreased notably between 2013 and 2022, falling below 1.5 percent. This was part of an overall trend of falling mortgage interest rates in Europe. The mortgage interest rate in Germany has since increased to 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2024. The German mortgage market In Europe, Germany is the second-largest mortgage market, with a total value of mortgages outstanding amounting to over 1.8 trillion euros. Mortgage loans are one of the oldest bank products. Among the factors that influence mortgage interest rates are inflation, economic growth, monetary policies, the bond market, the stability of lenders, and the overall conditions of the housing market. Mortgage loans The higher cost of borrowing has a significant effect on the market: While the interest rates were at their lowest, mortgage lending was on the rise. In 2023, when the rates reached a 10-year-high, the quarterly gross mortgage lending fell to the lowest value since 2014. Meanwhile, house prices have also increased substantially in recent years. According to the House Price Index in Germany, between 2015 and 2022, house prices increased by over 60 percent.

Key information about Germany Long Term Interest Rate

• Germany Long Term Interest Rate: Month Avg: Germany: ECB Harmonised was reported at 2.18 % pa in Dec 2024, compared with 2.31 % pa in the previous month.
• Germany Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1990 to Dec 2024.
• The data reached an all-time high of 9.09 % pa in Oct 1990 and a record low of -0.65 % pa in Aug 2019.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by CEIC Data.

• In the latest reports, Germany Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: EURIBOR: 3 Months was reported at -0.57 % pa in Nov 2021.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Main Refinancing Operations) was set at 3.15 % pa in Dec 2024.
• Germany Exchange Rate against USD averaged 0.92 (USD/EUR) in Jun 2023.

The average mortgage interest rate decreased in nearly every country in Europe between 2012 and 2021, followed by an increase in response to inflation. In Hungary, Poland, Czechia, and Romania, mortgage rates peaked in late 2022 and the beginning of 2023, followed by a gradual decline until the first quarter of 2024. The rest of the countries under observation, including the biggest mortgage markets - the UK and Germany, saw a continued increase in interest rates until the fourth quarter of 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, mortgage interest rates declined quarter-on-quarter across almost all markets in focus, marking a long awaited easing of monetary policy.

The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost seven million after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to 4.8 million. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

In 2022, Portugal overturned the sinking mortgage interest rate it had gone through during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The country did not escape from the overall trend of falling mortgage interest rates observed in Europe during the COVID-19 crisis, which positioned national mortgage interest rates at 1.54 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Interest rates as a weapon against inflation

Even though interest rates are affected by economic growth, monetary policies, the bond market, the stability of lenders, and the overall conditions of the housing market, inflation currently leads the European Central Bank (ECB)’s decisions regarding them. As inflation has been low in Europe since the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB lowered interest rates in an attempt to promote economic growth. However, the economic difficulties brought up by the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war have fueled inflation. To counteract this rise, the ECB increased interest rates. Portugal’s abrupt rise in interest rates on new residential loans from 0.83 percent in 2021 to 3.24 percent in 2022 demonstrates the balanced and calculated act between the two financial indices.

High interest rates and low mortgage lending

Compared to other European nations, Portugal has a low gross residential mortgage lending. In the third and fourth quarters of 2022, mortgage lending decreased in the country due to rising interest rates and worsening economic conditions. Despite being in a rising trajectory in terms of outstanding residential mortgage lending since the second quarter of 2021, 2023 registered decreasing figures caused by the same economic contingencies.

Key information about India Long Term Interest Rate

• India Government Securities Yield: 10 Years was reported at 6.71 % pa in Jan 2025, compared with 6.78 % pa in the previous month.
• India Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from May 1996 to Jan 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 13.96 % pa in May 1996 and a record low of 5.11 % pa in Oct 2003.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Reserve Bank of India.

• In the latest reports, India Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: India: MIBOR: 3 Months was reported at 7.19 % pa in Jun 2023.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Repo Rate) was set at 6.50 % pa in Jan 2025.
• India Exchange Rate against USD averaged 82.23 (USD/INR) in Jun 2023.

The table below showcases the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of mortgage rates for each zip code in Lansing, Illinois. It's important to understand that mortgage rates can vary greatly and can change yearly.

In October 2024, the interest rate for mortgages with an initial rate fixation of five and up to ten years was 3.23 percent. This mortgage rate saw a general increase since the beginning of 2022 until the end of 2023, however started to decline in 2024. Falling mortgage rates might be a reason for the value of new mortgage lending rose in 2024. As borrowing costs increase, taking out a mortgage becomes less affordable for home buyers, also leading to the mortgage market slowing down. What about housing prices in Belgium? On average, a house cost approximately 319,000 euros in Belgium in 2022. Big price differences are observed, however, among the three regions of the country. A house in the French-speaking region of Wallonia is much more expensive on average than a house in the Brussels-Capital Region (the city of Brussels with its surrounding villages). Belgium’s real estate market grows steadily Property transactions in Belgium are affected by the country’s fiscal system. When purchasing a house in Belgium, consumers pay the asking price plus ten (in Flanders) or 12 percent (in Wallonia and the Brussels-Capital Region) in registration rights. This makes buying a house in Belgium a long-term investment and something consumers do not do right away.

In 2023, mortgage interest rates in Canada increased for all types of mortgages. The interest rate for fixed mortgage interest rates for five years and more doubled, from 2.38 percent to 5.52 percent between December 2021 and December 2023. The higher borrowing costs led to the housing market contracting in 2022 and corrections of the property prices across the country.

The table below showcases the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of mortgage rates for each zip code in Bandera, Texas. It's important to understand that mortgage rates can vary greatly and can change yearly.

The table below showcases the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of mortgage rates for each zip code in Brentwood, Pennsylvania. It's important to understand that mortgage rates can vary greatly and can change yearly.

Mortgage interest rates in Spain soared in 2022, after falling below 1.5 percent at the end of 2021. In the second quarter of 2024, the average weighted interest rate stood at 3.46 percent. That was lower than the rate in the same period the previous year. Despite the increase, Spain had a considerably lower mortgage interest rate than many other European countries.The aftermath of the property bubble Before the bursting of the real estate bubble, the housing market experienced a period of intense activity. A context marked by economic growth, high employment rate, low interest rates, skyrocketing house prices and land speculation, among others, encourage massive lending for the acquisition of property; in 2005 alone, more than 1.3 million home mortgages were granted in Spain. When the bubble burst and the financial crisis hit the country, residential real estate transactions plummeted and households’ non-performing loans jumped to nearly 50 billion euros as countless families were not able to cope with their debts. Over a decade after the onset of the crisis, and despite falling mortgage rates, the volume of mortgage loans keeps decreasing every year. A homeowner country Traditionally, Spain has been a country of homeowners; in 2021, the homeownership rate was roughly 76 percent. While nearly half of Spanish households own their property with no outstanding payment, the percentage of households that have loan or mortgage pending has been decreasing in recent years. Despite ownership remaining as the preferred tenure option, cultural changes, job insecurity and mounting house prices are prompting Spaniards to opt more and more to become tenants instead of owners, as shown in the changing dynamics of the Spanish residential rental market.

More than three million mortgage loans are projected to be affected by the increasing mortgage interest rates in Canada by 2025. About one million of these mortgages are projected to be up for renewal in 2024. These loans were taken out at a time when interest rates were much lower, meaning that homeowners will be affected by a notable increase in their monthly payments.

Due to interest rates decreasing in recent years, mortgages in the United Kingdom have become overall more affordable: In 2007, when mortgages were the least affordable, a home buyer spent on average 23.6 percent of their income on mortgage interest and 7.2 percent on capital repayment. In 2019, the year with the most affordable mortgages, mortgage interest accounted for 5.9 percent and capital repayment was 11.5 percent of their income. As interest rates increase in response to the rising inflation, mortgage affordability is expected to worsen. Though below the levels observed before 2007, the total mortgage repayment between 2022 and 2026 is expected to exceed 23 percent of income.

The mortgage interest rate in Finland generally decreased between 2014 and 2022, followed by an increase. Factors that influence mortgage interest rates include inflation, economic growth, monetary policies, the bond market, the stability of lenders, and the overall conditions of the housing market. The mortgage interest rate in Finland decreased to its lowest value of 0.69 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 as part of an overall trend of falling mortgage interest rates in Europe. The mortgage interest rate has since risen to 4.31 percent by the second quarter of 2024.