Just as in many other countries, the housing market in the UK grew substantially during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by robust demand and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, high inflation and the increase in mortgage rates has led to house price growth slowing down. According to the forecast, 2024 is expected to see house prices decrease by three percent. Between 2024 and 2028, the average house price growth is projected at 2.7 percent. A contraction after a period of continuous growth In June 2022, the UK's house price index exceeded 150 index points, meaning that since 2015 which was the base year for the index, house prices had increased by 50 percent. In just two years, between 2020 and 2022, the index surged by 30 index points. As the market stood in December 2023, the average price for a home stood at approximately 284,691 British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2024 and slow down in the period between 2025 and 2028. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Central London slightly outperforming Greater London.

Average house prices are affected by several factors: Economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and mortgage availability can all affect average prices. A shortage of supply means that the need for housing and, therefore, competitive market created will push up house prices, whereas an excess of housing means prices fall to stimulate buyers. Location, location, location In December 2023, the average house price in England was more expensive than in any other country. This huge disparity in average house prices is in no small part down to the country's capital city, where the average asking price was more than double that of the UK’s average. Even in London, for those who can afford a mortgage, the savings made through buying over renting can be beneficial. House prices still set to grow In 2024, the number of housing transactions in the UK is set to fall to 1.1 million. With the expected decline in transactions, the average house price is also set to stagnate across the UK.

In 2022, house price growth in the UK slowed, after a period of decade-long increase. Nevertheless, in August 2024, prices reached a new peak, with the average home costing close to 290,000 British pounds. That figure refers to all property types, including detached, semi-detached, terraced houses, and flats and maisonettes. Compared to other European countries, the UK had some of the highest house prices. How have UK house prices increased over the last 10 years? Property prices have risen dramatically over the past decade. According to the UK house price index, the average house price has grown by over 50 percent since 2015. This price development has led to the gap between the cost of buying and renting a property to close. In 2023, buying a three-bedroom house in the UK was no longer more affordable than renting one. Consequently, Brits have become more likely to rent longer and push off making a house purchase until they have saved up enough for a down payment and achieved the financial stability required to make the step. What caused the decline in house prices in 2022? House prices are affected by multiple factors, such as mortgage rates, supply, and demand on the market. For nearly a decade, the UK experienced uninterrupted house price growth as a result of strong demand and a chronic undersupply. Homebuyers who purchased a property at the peak of the housing boom in July 2022 paid 14 percent more compared to what they would have paid a year before. Additionally, 2022 saw the most dramatic increase in mortgage rates in recent history. Between December 2021 and December 2022, the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubled, adding further strain to prospective homebuyers. As a result, the market cooled, leading to a correction in pricing.

House prices in the UK rose dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic, with growth slowing down in 2022 and turning negative in 2023. The year-on-year annual house price change peaked at 14 percent in July 2022. In June 2024, house prices increased by 2.7 percent. According to the Nationwide Building Society, the average house price exceeded 265,000 British pounds in 2022. Correction in housing prices: a European phenomenon The trend of a growing residential real estate market was not exclusive to the UK during the pandemic. Likewise, many European countries experienced falling prices in 2023. When comparing residential property RHPI (price index in real terms, e.g. corrected for inflation), countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain also saw prices decline. Sweden, one of the countries with the fastest growing residential markets, saw one of the largest declines in prices. How has demand for UK housing changed since the outbreak of the coronavirus? The easing of the lockdown was followed by a dramatic increase in home sales. In November 2020, the number of mortgage approvals reached an all-time high of over 107,000. One of the reasons for the housing boom were the low mortgage rates, allowing home buyers to take out a loan with an interest rate as low as 2.5 percent. That changed as the Bank of England started to raise the base lending rate, resulting in higher borrowing costs and a decline in homebuyer sentiment.

The average house price in England started to increase in the first half of 2024, after falling by over three percent year-on-year in December 2023. In June 2024, the house price index amounted to 149.7 index points, suggesting an increase in house prices of 2.4 percent since the same month in 2023 and a roughly 50 percent rise since 2015 - the baseline year for the index. Among the different regions in the UK, West and East Midlands experienced the strongest growth.

The house price index (HPI) shows changes in the value of residential properties in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. With the HPI set at a base of 100 in January 2015, a value of over 100 would mark an increase in the average dwelling price. A value of under 100 points, on the other hand, would indicate that the average price has dropped. House price index in the UK The HPI fluctuated in 2023, after peaking in November 2022. In December 2023, the index stood at 149 index points, which was a slight decline from December 2022. This trend in the index, and therefore the value of UK residential properties, has also been observed by the Halifax house price index. Average house prices Average house prices are affected by several factors. Economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and mortgage availability can all drive them up or down. A shortage of supply means that the need for housing and the competitive market created will push house prices up. An excess of housing, on the other hand, means prices fall to stimulate buyers.

Average annual and quarterly house prices based on Land Registry data, by borough.

Lower and Upper quartile prices are included in the table. Quarterly Lower Quartile data is taken from DCLG Table 583 up to Q3 2011. All other data is from Land Registry.
Excluded from the above figures are sales at less than market price (e.g. Right To Buy), sales below £1,000 and sales above £20m.
The "median" property price is determined by ranking all property prices in ascending order.
The median is the mid-point of this ranking with 50 per cent of prices below the median and 50 per cent above
The figures for the latest quarter are provisional and figures for all other quarters have been revised.

Data from CLG Table numbers: 581, 582, 585 and 586.

From the 1st of November 2012 DCLG no longer publishes this data at regional level.

Now also includes monthly data from the Land Registry.

Also available are Average house prices for London, by borough, ward, LSOA and MSOA, based on GLA calculations of Land Registry price paid datasets.

Price Paid Datasets

The full land registry price paid datasets are available to download here. This shows details of each house sale since 1995 in England and Wales. The files are broken down into smaller chunks to make it possible to open in Excel2010.

The England and Wales files contain the following fields:

unique_id
price
date
Post code
Property type
Whether newbuild
Freehold
Address1
Town

Local_authority
County
Record_status
Year
Month
Quarter
Region
Country

The London files contain the following fields:

id (London)
transaction_id
Price
Date_processed
Quarter
Month
Year
Year_month
Post_code
Property_type
Whether_new
Tenure
Address1
Address2
Address3
Address4
Town
Local_authority
County
Record_status
Post_code_clean
Inner_outer
Borough_code
Borough_name
Ward_code
Ward_name
MSOA11
LSOA11
OA11

Download (Beware: large file sizes):

England and Wales 1995-2013 (Zip) 911MB

London 1995-2013 (Zip) 190MB

NB Files correct to end of March 2014.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/house-price-index-background-tables

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-housing-market-and-house-prices

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of house sales in the UK spiked, followed by a period of decline. In 2023, the housing market slowed notably, and in September 2024, transaction volumes fell below 50,000. House sales volumes are affected by a number of factors, including mortgage rates, house prices, supply, demand, as well as the overall health of the market. The economic uncertainty and rising unemployment rates has also affected the homebuyer sentiment of Brits. How have UK house prices developed over the past 10 years? House prices in the UK have increased year-on-year since 2015, except for a brief period of decline in the second half of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. That is based on the 12-month percentage change of the UK house price index. At the peak of the housing boom in 2022, prices soared by nearly 14 percent. The decline that followed was mild, at under three percent. The cooling in the market was more pronounced in England and Wales, where the average house price declined in 2023. Conversely, growth in Scotland and Northern Ireland continued. What is the impact of mortgage rates on house sales? For a long period, mortgage rates were at record-low, allowing prospective homebuyers to take out a 10-year loan at a mortgage rate of less than three percent. In the last quarter of 2021, this period came to an end as the Bank of England rose the bank lending rate to contain the spike in inflation. Naturally, the higher borrowing costs affected consumer sentiment, urging many homebuyers to place their plans on hold and leading to a drop in sales.

In 2023, the UK Real Estate Market reached a value of USD 816.7 million, and it is projected to surge to USD 919.0 million by 2030.

Since 2015, the gap between the cost of buying a home and renting has grown, with homeownership becoming increasingly less affordable. In the third quarter of 2024, the house price to rent ratio in the UK stood at 114.6. That meant that house price growth has outpaced rental growth by nearly 15 percent between 2015 and 2024. The UK's house price to rent ratio was slightly below the average Euro area ratio. House price to income ratio in the UK Another indicator for housing affordability is the house price to income ratio, which is calculated by dividing nominal house prices by the nominal disposable income per head. The ratio saw an overall increase between 2015, which was tthe base year, and 2022. After that, the index declined, but remained close to the average for the Euro area. Is it more affordable to rent or buy? There are many things to be considered when comparing buying to renting, such as the ability to qualify for a mortgage and whether prospective homebuyers have sufficient savings for a deposit. Generally, purchasing a home is more affordable than renting one. However, the average monthly savings first-time buyers can achieve have been on the decline. In East of England, where house prices have increased rapidly over the past few years, it was cheaper to rent than to buy in 2022.

According to the forecast, the North East and Wales are the regions in the United Kingdom estimated to see the highest overall growth in house prices over the five-year period between 2024 and 2028. Just behind are North West, Yorkshire & the Humber, and Scotland, which are forecast to see house prices increase by 20.2 percent over the five-year period. In London, house prices are expected to rise by 13.9 percent.

RICS House Price Balance in the United Kingdom decreased to 11 percent in February from 21 percent in January of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance.

FOCUSON**LONDON**2011: HOUSING:A**GROWING**CITY

With the highest average incomes in the country but the least space to grow, demand for housing in London has long outstripped supply, resulting in higher housing costs and rising levels of overcrowding. The pressures of housing demand in London have grown in recent years, in part due to fewer people leaving London to buy homes in other regions. But while new supply during the recession held up better in London than in other regions, it needs to increase significantly in order to meet housing needs and reduce housing costs to more affordable levels.

This edition of Focus on London authored by James Gleeson in the Housing Unit looks at housing trends in London, from the demand/supply imbalance to the consequences for affordability and housing need.

REPORT:

Read the report in PDF format.

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PRESENTATION:

How much pressure is London’s popularity putting on housing provision in the capital? This interactive presentation looks at the effect on housing pressure of demographic changes, and recent new housing supply, shown by trends in overcrowding and house prices. Click on the start button at the bottom of the slide to access.

View Focus on London - Housing: A Growing City on Prezi

HISTOGRAM:

This histogram shows a selection of borough data and helps show areas that are similar to one another by each indicator.

Histogram

MOTION CHART:

This motion chart shows how the relationship, between key housing related indicators at borough level, changes over time.

Motion Chart

MAP:

These interactive borough maps help to geographically present a range of housing data within London, as well as presenting trend data where available.

MAP

DATA:

All the data contained within the Housing: A Growing City report as well as the data used to create the charts and maps can be accessed in this spreadsheet.

FACTS:

Some interesting facts from the data…

● Five boroughs with the highest proportion of households that have lived at their address for less than 12 months in 2009/10:

1. Westminster – 19 per cent
2. Wandsworth – 17 per cent
3. Camden – 16 per cent
4. Lambeth – 14 per cent
5. Southwark – 13 per cent

-31. Harrow – 6 per cent

-32. Havering – 5 per cent

● Five boroughs with the highest percentage point increase between 2004 and 2009 of households in the ‘private rented’ sector:

1. Newham – 17 per cent
2. Greenwich – 11 per cent
3. Enfield – 10 per cent
4. Camden – 9 per cent
5. Harrow – 8 per cent

-32. Islington – 1 per cent

-33. Bexley – 1 per cent

● Five boroughs with the highest percentage difference in median house prices between 2007 Q4 and 2010 Q4:

1. Kensington & Chelsea – 29 per cent
2. Westminster – 19 per cent
3. Camden – 15 per cent
4. Islington – 14 per cent
5. Southwark – 10 per cent

-31. Newham – down 9 per cent

-32. Barking & D’ham – down 9 per cent

Inflation-adjusted house prices in the United Kingdom (UK), continued to decline in the second quarter of 2023 - a trend that started in the fourth quarter of 2022. The nominal house price grew by 1.77 percent in the second quarter of 2023, but when adjusted for inflation, there was a decline of 6.15 percent.

Residential building contractors are contingent on the propensity of property developers to invest in new ventures; movements in property prices; government schemes intended to boost the housing supply; and underlying sentiment in the housing market. Industry contractors have endured turbulent operating conditions over the past five years, leading to volatile shifts in revenue and profitability. Revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 1% over the five years through 2024-25, reaching £97.4 billion. The pandemic caused a significant drop in output in 2020-21, as restrictions placed on on-site activity and fewer enquiries for new housing units reduced revenue opportunities. Aided by government support for the housing market and the release of pent-up demand, 2021-22 was characterised by a strong rebound in activity, though materials and labour shortages maintained constraints on output. Mounting supply chain disruption and heightened economic uncertainty maintained pressure on output in the following year, though revenue growth was maintained by growth in average selling prices. Interest rate hikes and inflationary pressures led to a more subdued housing market in 2022-23, holding back the number of housing starts and completions during the year. This was followed by a slump in new residential building construction in the following year, as high borrowing costs and uncertain market conditions caused developers to scale back investment plans. Revenue is set to grow by 1.5% in 2024-25, aided by a slight improvement in new orders for residential building construction and an uptick in average selling prices. Revenue is slated to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.5% to reach £105.1 billion over the five years through 2029-30. Housebuilding activity is set to grow in the medium-term, aided by the release of pent-up demand. Nonetheless, significant uncertainty remains, with mortgage rates likely to settle well-above pre-pandemic levels and supply chains remaining fragile. The new government’s pledge to deliver 1.5 million houses during the first five years of parliament will boost demand for industry contractors, though the full impact of this on growth prospects is dependent on the nature and extent of accompanying funding plans.

Mortgage rates increased at a record pace in 2022, with the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubling between March 2022 and December 2022. With inflation increasing, the Bank of England introduced several bank rate hikes, resulting in higher mortgage rates. In September 2023, the average 10-year fixed rate interest rate reached 5.1 percent. As borrowing costs get higher, demand for housing is expected to decrease, leading to declining market sentiment and slower house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold declined in 2022, reaching close to 1.3 million. Despite the number of transactions falling, this figure was higher than the period before the COVID-10 pandemic. The falling transaction volume also impacted mortgage borrowing. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans fell year-on-year for fourth straight quarters in a row. How are higher mortgages affecting homebuyers? Homeowners with a mortgage loan usually lock in a fixed rate deal for two to ten years, meaning that after this period runs out, they need to renegotiate the terms of the loan. Many of the mortgages outstanding were taken out during the period of record-low mortgage rates and have since faced notable increases in their monthly repayment. About five million homeowners are projected to see their deal expire by the end of 2026. About two million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to 199 British pounds by 2026.

According to the forecast, the UK regional prime property real estate market is to increase by almost 14 percent by 2028. In 2024, prime property prices are expected to fall by two percent. In the following four years, growth will recover.

Housing and non-housing repair and maintenance were the segments with the largest construction output in the United Kingdom in 2024. Those two sectors together amounted to over 44 percent of the industry. Meanwhile, the output of new private housing construction amounted to 17.9 percent. The output volume of infrastructure in the past five years has been higher than in previous decades. A look at the construction output index for new private housing shows that output increased in 2021 and 2022, but it has fallen after that. Construction GVA increasingAn increased output also translated into a growing contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP). In the fourth quarter of 2024, the construction industry had a gross value added of nearly 38 billion British pounds. That value reached a low point during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. In comparison, the overall GDP of the United Kingdom was valued at over 2.56 trillion British pounds. Private housing construction expected to declineThe output of the private housing sector was forecast to increase significantly in 2025. The few years after that, the output of private housing construction is expected to keep increasing but at a slower rate. The average price of houses in the UK increased noticeably in 2024, higher demand for and higher prices of housing generally incentivize the housing sector.

Starts and completions of new build dwellings in the UK, on a quarterly and annual basis, time series data