The U.S. housing market continues to evolve, with the median home price forecast to reach 426,000 U.S. dollars by the second quarter of 2026. This projection comes after a period of significant growth and recent fluctuations, reflecting the complex interplay of economic factors affecting the real estate sector. The rising costs have not only impacted home prices, but also down payments, with the median down payment more than doubling since 2012. Regional variations in housing costs Home prices and down payments vary dramatically across the United States. While the national median down payment stood at approximately 26,700 U.S. dollars in early 2024, homebuyers in states like California, Massachusetts, and Hawaii faced down payments exceeding 74,000 U.S. dollars. This disparity highlights the challenges of homeownership in high-cost markets and underscores the importance of location in determining housing affordability. Market dynamics and future outlook The housing market has shown signs of cooling after years of rapid growth, with more modest price increases of 4.8 percent in 2022 and 6.5 percent in 2023. This slowdown can be attributed in part to rising mortgage rates, which have tempered demand. Despite these challenges, most states continued to see year-over-year price growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, with Rhode Island and Vermont leading the pack at over 13 percent appreciation. As the market adjusts to new economic realities, potential homebuyers and investors alike will be watching closely for signs of stabilization or renewed growth in the coming years.

House prices grew year-on-year in most states in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2024. The District of Columbia was the only exception, with a decline of three percent. The annual appreciation for single-family housing in the U.S. was 0.71 percent, while in Hawaii—the state where homes appreciated the most—the increase exceeded 10 percent. How have home prices developed in recent years? House price growth in the U.S. has been going strong for years. In 2024, the median sales price of a single-family home exceeded 413,000 U.S. dollars, up from 277,000 U.S. dollars five years ago. One of the factors driving house prices was the cost of credit. The record-low federal funds effective rate allowed mortgage lenders to set mortgage interest rates as low as 2.3 percent. With interest rates on the rise, home buying has also slowed, causing fluctuations in house prices. Why are house prices growing? Many markets in the U.S. are overheated because supply has not been able to keep up with demand. How many homes enter the housing market depends on the construction output, whereas the availability of existing homes for purchase depends on many other factors, such as the willingness of owners to sell. Furthermore, growing investor appetite in the housing sector means that prospective homebuyers have some extra competition to worry about. In certain metros, for example, the share of homes bought by investors exceeded 20 percent in 2024.

Key information about House Prices Growth

• US house prices grew 5.2% YoY in Sep 2024, following an increase of 6.2% YoY in the previous quarter.
• YoY growth data is updated quarterly, available from Mar 1992 to Sep 2024, with an average growth rate of 5.5%.
• House price data reached an all-time high of 17.7% in Sep 2021 and a record low of -12.4% in Dec 2008.

The average sales price of new homes in the United States experienced a slight decrease in 2024, dropping to 512,2000 U.S. dollars from the peak of 521,500 U.S. dollars in 2022. This decline came after years of substantial price increases, with the average price surpassing 400,000 U.S. dollars for the first time in 2021. The recent cooling in the housing market reflects broader economic trends and changing consumer sentiment towards homeownership. Factors influencing home prices and affordability The rapid rise in home prices over the past few years has been driven by several factors, including historically low mortgage rates and increased demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the market has since slowed down, with the number of home sales declining by over two million between 2021 and 2023. This decline can be attributed to rising mortgage rates and decreased affordability. The Housing Affordability Index hit a record low of 98.1 in 2023, indicating that the median-income family could no longer afford a median-priced home. Future outlook for the housing market Despite the recent cooling, experts forecast a potential recovery in the coming years. The Freddie Mac House Price Index showed a growth of 6.5 percent in 2023, which is still above the long-term average of 4.4 percent since 1990. However, homebuyer sentiment remains low across all age groups, with people aged 45 to 64 expressing the most pessimistic outlook. The median sales price of existing homes is expected to increase slightly until 2025, suggesting that affordability challenges may persist in the near future.

Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q4 2024 about sales, median, housing, and USA.

Key information about House Prices Growth

• China house prices dropped 4.1% YoY in Dec 2024, following a decrease of 4.8% YoY in the previous month.
• YoY growth data is updated monthly, available from Mar 1999 to Dec 2024, with an average growth rate of 7.4%.
• House price data reached an all-time high of 25.0% in Feb 2010 and a record low of -12.6% in Apr 1999.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (MSAD) (ATNHPIUS19804Q) from Q2 1976 to Q4 2024 about Detroit, MI, appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The U.S. mortgage market has declined notably since 2020 and 2021, mostly due to the effect of higher borrowing costs on refinance mortgages. The value of refinancing mortgage originations, amounted to 86 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2024, down from a peak of 851 billion U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter of 2020. The value of mortgage loans for the purchase of a property recorded milder fluctuations, with a value of 291 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2024, and a market peak of 477 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2022. According to the forecast, mortgage lending is expected to slightly increase until the end of 2025. The cost of mortgage borrowing in the U.S. Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2022 and continued to increase in 2023. In 2020, a homebuyer could lock in a 30-year fixed interest rate of under three percent, whereas in 2023, the average rate for the same mortgage type exceeded seven percent. That has led to a decline in homebuyer sentiment, and an increasing share of the population pessimistic about buying a home in the current market. The effect of a slower housing market on property prices and rents According to the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, housing prices experienced a slight correction in early 2023, as property transactions declined. Nevertheless, the index continued to grow in the following months. On the other hand, residential rents have increased steadily since 2000.

Mexico's housing market demonstrates significant regional price variations, with Mexico City emerging as the most expensive area for residential property in 2024. The capital city's average house price of 3.91 million Mexican pesos far exceeds the national average of 1.73 million pesos, highlighting the stark contrast in property values across the country. This disparity reflects broader economic and demographic trends shaping Mexico's real estate landscape. Sustained growth in housing prices The Mexican housing market has experienced substantial growth over the past decade, with home prices more than doubling since 2010. By the third quarter of 2023, the nominal house price index reached 255.54 points, representing a 146 percent increase from the baseline year. Even when adjusted for inflation, the real house price index showed a notable 40 percent growth, underscoring the market's resilience and attractiveness to investors. The mortgage market is dominated by three main player types: Infonavit, Fovissste, and commercial banks including Sofomes. In 2023, Infonavit, a scheme by Mexico's National Housing Fund Institute which provides lending to workers in the formal sector, was responsible for the majority of mortgages granted to individuals. Challenges in mortgage lending Despite the overall growth in housing prices, Mexico's mortgage market has faced challenges in recent years. The number of new mortgage loans granted has declined over the past decade, falling by approximately 200,000 loans between 2008 and 2023. This decrease in lending activity may be attributed to various factors, including economic uncertainties and changing consumer preferences. The state of Mexico, which is home to 13 percent of the country's population, likely plays a significant role in shaping these trends, given its large demographic influence on the national housing market.

According to a survey conducted in South Korea in January 2025, around 36 percent of respondents stated that housing prices would fall over the next year. According to the source, most respondents in the previous year's survey had an overall negative opinion on the government's policies on real estate.

Context

Zillow has a lot of data about housing prices in America.

Content

Data about housing prices and rental prices broken down according to city and state and number of bedrooms. More detail can be found at https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ and at https://www.zillow.com/research/home-sales-methodology-7733/.

Acknowledgements

The data was downloaded from https://www.zillow.com/research/data/. Banner photo from Ian Keefe on Unsplash. Dataset license described at https://www.zillow.com/research/data/.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States (USSTHPI) from Q1 1975 to Q4 2024 about appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Housing Index in Spain increased to 1972.10 EUR/SQ. METRE in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 1921 EUR/SQ. METRE in the third quarter of 2024. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Spain House Prices - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

House Price Index MoM in Canada increased to 0.10 percent in February from -0.10 percent in January of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Canada House Price Index MoM.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for California (CASTHPI) from Q1 1975 to Q4 2024 about appraisers, CA, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for Los Angeles County, CA (ATNHPIUS06037A) from 1975 to 2024 about Los Angeles County, CA; Los Angeles; CA; HPI; housing; price index; indexes; price; and USA.

The CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sales Index (CCRSI) for multifamily real estate in the United States started to decline in the second half of 2022, after more than a decade of steady growth. The index measures the development of sales prices of multifamily properties, with 2000 chosen as a base year. An index value of 200 means that sales prices have doubled since 2000. In March 2024, the value-weighed index, which is more representative of the high-value deals in core markets, hit 325 index points, down from a market peak of 416 in June 2022. The equal-weighed index is more influenced by the lower-priced deals that comprise the higher share of transactions. It stood at 438 index points in March 2024, down from a market peak of 503 in June 2022.

Housing Index in Ireland increased to 191.30 points in January from 191.20 points in December of 2024. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Ireland Residential Property Prices - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY (MSAD) (ATNHPIUS35004Q) from Q3 1975 to Q4 2024 about Nassau, appraisers, NY, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The number of U.S. home sales in the United States declined in 2023, after soaring in 2021. A total of four million transactions of existing homes, including single-family, condo, and co-ops, were completed in 2023, down from 6.12 million in 2021. According to the forecast, the housing market is forecast to head for recovery in 2025, despite transaction volumes are expected to remain below the long-term average. Why have home sales declined? The housing boom during the coronavirus pandemic has demonstrated that being a homeowner is still an integral part of the American dream. Nevertheless, sentiment declined in the second half of 2022 and Americans across all generations agreed that the time was not right to buy a home. A combination of factors has led to house prices rocketing and making homeownership unaffordable for the average buyer. A survey among owners and renters found that the high home prices and unfavorable economic conditions were the two main barriers to making a home purchase. People who would like to purchase their own home need to save up a deposit, have a good credit score, and a steady and sufficient income to be approved for a mortgage. In 2022, mortgage rates experienced the most aggressive increase in history, making the total cost of homeownership substantially higher. Only 15 percent of U.S. renters could afford to become homeowners and in metros with highly competitive housing markets such as Los Angeles, CA, and Urban Honolulu, HI, this share was below five percent. Are U.S. home prices expected to fall? The median sales price of existing homes stood at 387,000 U.S. dollars in 2023 and was forecast to increase slightly until 2025. The development of the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index shows that home prices experienced seven consecutive months of decline between June 2022 and January 2023, but this trend reversed in the following months. Despite mild fluctuations throughout the year, home prices in many metros are forecast to continue to grow, albeit at a much slower rate.