Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates (EMVMACROINTEREST) from Jan 1985 to May 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In 2024, ** percent of adults in the United States invested in the stock market. This figure has remained steady over the last few years, and is still below the levels before the Great Recession, when it peaked in 2007 at ** percent. What is the stock market? The stock market can be defined as a group of stock exchanges, where investors can buy shares in a publicly traded company. In more recent years, it is estimated an increasing number of Americans are using neobrokers, making stock trading more accessible to investors. Other investments A significant number of people think stocks and bonds are the safest investments, while others point to real estate, gold, bonds, or a savings account. Since witnessing the significant one-day losses in the stock market during the Financial Crisis, many investors were turning towards these alternatives in hopes for more stability, particularly for investments with longer maturities. This could explain the decrease in this statistic since 2007. Nevertheless, some speculators enjoy chasing the short-run fluctuations, and others see value in choosing particular stocks.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

PDLB is a triple whammy on those three themes.ECIP capital: PDLB received $225M of ECIP capital, and the regulators assigned them the lowest possible dividend (0.5%) on this capital for the first year of payments (announced in June). If we assume PDLB continues to pay 0.5% on this preferred and they have a cost of preferred equity of 10%, then we can calculate the value of this $225M liability as just $11M, with the rest a write-up to equity.This adjustment brings P/TBV from 82% to 46%.Thrift conversion dynamics: Ponce converted from a mutual holding company to a stock holding company in January 2022 (second step). PDLB is an unprofitable and under-levered bank. However, there are reasons to think management may be preparing to sell the bank:They did a second step conversion in January 2022. Only the optionality to sell the bank would motivate this step, as the bank didn’t need the capital, and the conversion increases management’s susceptibility to activist investors. This is highly praised by the best stock analysis websites.Management is old: 6/8 members are in their 70s or 80s (including the CEO and Chairman).Together, the Directors and Officers own >2M shares of stock, worth ~$20M. The CEO owns 580,000 shares, worth ~$6M. His total compensation is ~$1.3M (and he'll need to retire soon anyway). Additionally, the CEO and directors will receive a final tranche of ESOP shares in December 2024 that will boost their holdings another ~40%.Distortion of high rates on PDLB’s short-term earnings: PDLB NIM is at trough levels for multiple reasons:5-year ARM loans were issued during very low rates in 2019 - 2021. 5-year treasury yields were between 0.2% and 1.4% during this period, and grew to >4% in September 2022 (where they’ve been ever since). Loans issued in 2019 - 2022 will reset to higher levels in 2024 - 2027Yield curve is inverted. Ponce lends based on the long end of the curve (five-year rates at 4.1%) and funds on the short-end of the curve (brokered deposits come in at ~5.3%). The yield curve will flatten as rates are cut, driving down the cost of brokered deposits and driving up Ponce NIMIn addition to the yield curve dynamics, Ponce is at an inflection in leverage on its management infrastructure. It built out management capabilities for a much larger bank, and is currently seeing decreasing Q/Q non-interest cost, while assets and interest income are growing nicely.IR told me that cost pressures were peaking in 2023, and this has already become true in 1H 2024 results.Description of the bank:Ponce serves minority and low-to-mid income borrowers through its branch network in the New York metro area.Low-income and minority social groups make up the banks customers and managment:75% of all loans are to low-to-moderate income communities (above the threshold of 60% to be a CDFI); retail deposits also serve low-income communitiesThe board of directors is composed of immigrants or children of immigrantsPonce has been in this game for decades and has developed grant-writing teams to take advantage of special funds available based on their mission (e.g. $4.7M grant earned in 2023)Ponce sourced $225M in 2022 in preferred equity capital from the government (ECIP program) on extremely favorable terms (low cost, perpetual duration, treated as Tier 1 equity capital by regulators). They recently reported that for the first year (and I’d be in subsequent years), they’ll pay the lowest possible dividend of 0.5% (the range is up to 2% for the program). This number is inline with the one quoted by the best stock websites.Ponce also receives low-cost corporate deposits that allow other banks to get Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) credit with regulators. These deposits are insured and sticky, and often ~200bps or more below market interest rates.Outside of the ECIP equity and the small-but-growing CRA corporate deposits, the bank doesn’t have a good deposit franchise. The blended total cost of interest-bearing liabilities in 2023 is 4.0%.On the asset side, Ponce’s focus on mortgage lending to lower-income communities is a good niche (and composes 99% of lending). IR explained to me that the board of directors is composed of engaged real estate investors who know intimately the relevant neighborhoods and are involved in credit underwriting. Ponce lends 5/1 and 5/5 adjustable-rate mortgages against single-family (27% of loans), multifamily (30% of loans), and non-residential (18% of loans). Construction (23% of loans) properties are 36-month fixed-rate loans. LTVs on all these segments are ~55% and debt service coverage ratio >1.25x. In the current environment, Ponce is issuing loans at ~9% yield that are likely to experience very low levels of credit losses (my expectation would be 0 - 0.1% per year in annual credit cost). Given 5-year rates (~4%), lending at 9% is very favorable, and likely reflects decreasing competitive intensity in the wake of recent banking turmoil.I’m comfortable projecting very low credit costs because losses from the mortgage portfolio have been substantially zero going back to 2016 and very low going back to 2012 (the first year of available data). Charge-offs seemed to peak in 2013 at 0.7% of outstanding loans (charge-off happen years after delinquencies, so the timing seems reasonable following ‘08/’09). Given the peak of 0.7% and the more common experience of 0.0% charge-offs in Ponce’s mortgages, I’m therefore comfortable mostly ignoring credit cost.The most concerning area with respect to credit costs is the construction book. Although they scaled the construction business in 2023, it's not a new business for PDLB (they've been doing construction loans on the order of ~100M per year since 2017, and on a smaller scale before that). PDLB has not recorded any charge offs on the construction business going back at least 7 years. PDLB had no new delinquencies on this book in 2023 (I.e. from loans made in 2020). They did have some DQNs in 2022, but these have been mostly worked out without charge offs.Regarding the timing of the ramp up in recent quarters, it may be just right: if investors/banks are concerned about charge offs today, that's related to vintages from 2020/2021 (which were also loans issued at much lower rates and might not roll over smoothly). If others are pulling back, that's the time to deploy more capital into the business.The bank is currently very under-leveraged: Tier-1 equity / RWA is 21% (vs. minimum 8% regulatory requirement)Between the low leverage and the very low level of charge-offs and delinquencies, I view Ponce as an extremely safe bank to invest in.Investment thesis:Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costsAs with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate upon 3-year anniversary (January)Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costs:Although the 2023 / 2024 rate environment has pressured NIMs, there are already signs that interest-rate spread / NIM have bottomed, even as no interest rate cuts have happened. Interest rate spreads have leveled out in the past three quarters at ~1.7%. Liabilities have mostly repriced, and from here, tailwinds will be 1) repricing of the 5-year ARMs and 2) interest rate cuts starting in September. NIM will be going up, and will likely recover to historical levels within a couple of years.On the expense side, there was significant concern into the 2023 results about non-interest expense. Compensation and benefits grew by 13% CAGR from 2019 - 2023. Growth was 10% in 2023, showing deceleration but still to a high level. However, based on comments by IR that the bank has built expense infrastructure for a much larger bank, and based on results from 1H 2024, it looks like expenses are more controlled now. Non interest cost was in the 17.0M - 17.9M range for the last four quarters (prior to recently announced Q2). Q2, on the other hand, showed non-interest expense at 16.1M. Meanwhile, interest earning assets continued to grow at ~12% Y/Y. The combination of flat / decreasing costs and double-digit asset growth is very favorable for expense leverage.Additionally, managers have incentives to create shareholder value, especially as they reach retirement age. If Ponce doesn’t slow expense growth, shareholder activists may discover Ponce and pressure management to rationalize or sell the bank.The combination of improving NIM, growth in assets, and flattish expenses should produce much higher EPS in coming quarters, and I think $2 - $2.50 in EPS by 2026 is likely (if the bank isn’t sold).As with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate:The three-year anniversary of the thrift conversion is in January. The board is of retirement age and has healthy incentives to sell the bank. A buyout is likely a home-run from today’s stock price of $10.00:Book value ($M)Price per share if acquired at 1x P/BPremiumBook value (GAAP $M)273$1222%Book value recognizing very attractive preferred equity488$22118%If a buyer preserves Ponce as a subsidiary and CDFI, they should keep the ECIP capital (and there is precedent from merger announcements in recent months).Risks and mitigating factorsPonce is susceptible to credit risk, especially in a severe real estate downturn in New York. However, from what we can see of the wake of 2008/2009 financial crash, realized losses on the portfolio were quite low. Additionally, current credit metrics are pristine. 90-day delinquencies are just 0.5% of loans. Construction loans were the worst performers at 1.6%, followed by (counter-intuitively) owner-occupied at 1.4%. The NYC real estate dynamics affecting NYCB and others appear to be non-issues for PDLB. However it’s worth keeping a close eye on credit metrics.If NYC raises taxes to address budget deficits, it could hurt property prices. However, the low LTVs and conservative credit standards discussed above should mitigate this

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of monetary policy on financial asset prices in Poland. Following Gürkaynak et al. (2005) I test how many factors adequately explain the variability of short-term interest rates around MPC meetings, finding that there are two such factors. The first one has a structural interpretation as a “current interest rate change” factor, and the second one as a “future interest rate changes” factor, with the latter related to MPC communication. Regression analysis shows that, controlling for foreign interest rates and global risk aversion, both MPC actions and communication matter for government bond yields, and that communication is more important for stock prices. Furthermore, the foreign exchange rate used to depreciate (appreciate) after MPC statements signalling tighter (easier) future monetary policy. However, the effect disappeared at the end of the sample. For most of the sample the exchange rate would appreciate (depreciate) or would not change in a statistically significant manner after an increase (a decrease) of the current interest rate. The results indicate that not only changes of the current interest rate but also MPC communication matters for financial asset prices in Poland. It has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in a low inflation and low interest rate environment.

The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, was created by the U.S. congress in 1938, in order to maintain liquidity and stability in the domestic mortgage market. The company is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), meaning that while it was a publicly traded company for most of its history, it was still supported by the federal government. While there is no legally binding guarantee of shares in GSEs or their securities, it is generally acknowledged that the U.S. government is highly unlikely to let these enterprises fail. Due to these implicit guarantees, GSEs are able to access financing at a reduced cost of interest. Fannie Mae's main activity is the purchasing of mortgage loans from their originators (banks, mortgage brokers etc.) and packaging them into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to ease the access of U.S. homebuyers to housing credit. The early 2000s U.S. mortgage finance boom During the early 2000s, Fannie Mae was swept up in the U.S. housing boom which eventually led to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The association's stated goal of increasing access of lower income families to housing finance coalesced with the interests of private mortgage lenders and Wall Street investment banks, who had become heavily reliant on the housing market to drive profits. Private lenders had begun to offer riskier mortgage loans in the early 2000s due to low interest rates in the wake of the "Dot Com" crash and their need to maintain profits through increasing the volume of loans on their books. The securitized products created by these private lenders did not maintain the standards which had traditionally been upheld by GSEs. Due to their market share being eaten into by private firms, however, the GSEs involved in the mortgage markets began to also lower their standards, resulting in a 'race to the bottom'. The fall of Fannie Mae The lowering of lending standards was a key factor in creating the housing bubble, as mortgages were now being offered to borrowers with little or no ability to repay the loans. Combined with fraudulent practices from credit ratings agencies, who rated the junk securities created from these mortgage loans as being of the highest standard, this led directly to the financial panic that erupted on Wall Street beginning in 2007. As the U.S. economy slowed down in 2006, mortgage delinquency rates began to spike. Fannie Mae's losses in the mortgage security market in 2006 and 2007, along with the losses of the related GSE 'Freddie Mac', had caused its share value to plummet, stoking fears that it may collapse. On September 7th 2008, Fannie Mae was taken into government conservatorship along with Freddie Mac, with their stocks being delisted from stock exchanges in 2010. This act was seen as an unprecedented direct intervention into the economy by the U.S. government, and a symbol of how far the U.S. housing market had fallen.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

AGNC: Will Mortgage REIT Thrive in a Rising Rate Environment?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

As of June 17, 2024, the most shorted stock was for, the American holographic technology services provider, MicroCloud Hologram Inc., with 66.64 percent of their total float having been shorted. This is a change from mid-January 2021, when video game retailed GameStop had an incredible 121.07 percent of their available shares in a short position. In effect this means that investors had 'borrowed' more shares (with a future promise to return them) than the total number of shares available for public trading. Owing to this behavior of professional investors, retail investors enacted a campaign to drive up the stock price of Gamestop, leading to losses of billions when investors had to repurchase the stock they had borrowed. At this time, a similar – but less effective – social media campaign was also carried out for the stock price of cinema operator AMC, and the price of silver. What is short selling? Short selling is essentially where an investor bets on a share price falling by: borrowing a number of shares selling these shares while the price is still high; purchasing the same number again once the price falls; then returning the borrowed shares at a profit. Of course, a profit will only be made if the share price does fall; should the share price rise the investor will then need to purchase the shares back at a higher price, and thus incur a loss. Short selling can lead to some very large profits in a short amount of time, with Tesla stock generating over one billion dollars in short sell profits during the first week of March 2020 alone, owing to the financial crash caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. However, owing to the short-term, opportunistic nature of short selling, these returns look less impressive when considered as net profits from short sell positions over the full year. The risks of short selling Short selling carries greater risks than traditional investments, and for this reason financial advisors often recommend against this strategy for ‘retail’ (i.e. non-professional) investors. The reason for this is that losses from short selling are potentially uncapped, whereas losses from traditional investments are limited to the initial cost. For example, if someone purchases 100 dollars of shares, the maximum they can lose is the 100 dollars the spent on those shares. However, say someone borrows 100 dollars of shares instead, betting on the price falling. If these shares are then sold for 100 dollars but the price subsequently rises, the losses could greatly exceed the initial investment should the price rise to, say, 500 dollars. The risks of short selling can be seen by looking again at Tesla, with the company causing the greatest losses over 2020 from short selling at over 40 billion U.S. dollars.

Argentina AR: External Debt: DOD: Stocks: Variable Rate data was reported at 60.545 USD bn in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 63.756 USD bn for 2015. Argentina AR: External Debt: DOD: Stocks: Variable Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 37.345 USD bn from Dec 1970 (Median) to 2016, with 47 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 63.756 USD bn in 2015 and a record low of 3.291 USD bn in 1970. Argentina AR: External Debt: DOD: Stocks: Variable Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Argentina – Table AR.World Bank.WDI: External Debt: Debt Outstanding, Debt Ratio and Debt Service. Variable interest rate is long-term external debt with interest rates that float with movements in a key market rate; for example, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) or the U.S. prime rate. This item conveys information about the borrower's exposure to changes in international interest rates. Long-term external debt is defined as debt that has an original or extended maturity of more than one year and that is owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy and repayable in currency, goods, or services. Data are in current U.S. dollars.; ; World Bank, International Debt Statistics.; Sum;

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by May 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached * percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Ivory Coast CI: External Debt: DOD: Stocks: Variable Rate data was reported at 3.830 USD bn in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.997 USD bn for 2015. Ivory Coast CI: External Debt: DOD: Stocks: Variable Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 4.660 USD bn from Dec 1970 (Median) to 2016, with 47 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.997 USD bn in 1992 and a record low of 34.147 USD mn in 1970. Ivory Coast CI: External Debt: DOD: Stocks: Variable Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ivory Coast – Table CI.World Bank: External Debt: Debt Outstanding, Debt Ratio and Debt Service. Variable interest rate is long-term external debt with interest rates that float with movements in a key market rate; for example, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) or the U.S. prime rate. This item conveys information about the borrower's exposure to changes in international interest rates. Long-term external debt is defined as debt that has an original or extended maturity of more than one year and that is owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy and repayable in currency, goods, or services. Data are in current U.S. dollars.; ; World Bank, International Debt Statistics.; Sum;

The Financial Asset Investing industry's revenue is largely dictated by the performance of domestic and international financial markets. Volatility in global financial markets due to the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has contributed to a decline in confidence. Industry revenue is expected to fall at an annualised 3.2% over the five years through 2023-24, to total $31.1 billion. This trend includes an anticipated uptick of 0.1% in the current year. Industry revenue has been highly volatile, with sharemarket performance remaining relatively weak due to the pandemic. As a result, profitability has trended downwards. Despite this decline, industry participation has jumped, as asset investing becomes more popular among consumers and businesses, including investments in riskier assets like domestic and international equities. To curb inflation, the RBNZ has repeatedly raised its official cash rate, resulting in a 14-year high in cash rates and a surge in interest rates in New Zealand. Rising interest rates have sparked interest in longer term debt securities due to their higher yield, which is more enticing for investors. This has somewhat offset the decline in industry revenue. Industry revenue is forecast to grow moving forwards. A strong economic recovery following the pandemic and easing global concerns are projected to drive revenue growth, as investors are more eager to take on higher risk. Forecast rate cuts are set to stimulate stock market performance. Instead of longer term debt securities like bonds, investors will start gravitating towards equities as yields gradually decline. Other factors set to drive growth include lower revenue volatility and a rise in industry assets contributing to growing investment returns. Technology will continue to play a key role in the Financial Asset Investing industry. Fintech advancements, like chatbots and robo-advisors, are set to enhance profitability in the coming years by automating tasks and reducing reliance on administrative labour. However, firms will likely face stronger competition for funds from superannuation funds and KiwiSaver schemes. Overall, industry revenue is forecast to grow at an annualised 3.3% over the five years through 2028-29, to reach $36.5 billion.

The benchmark interest rate in Philippines was last recorded at 5.25 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Philippines Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Fund Management Activities industry is undergoing a period of transformation, characterised by technological disruptions and shifting investor preferences. Firms that have embraced this innovation and demonstrated their ability to adapt have been well positioned to navigate these challenges. That being said, companies have still been plagued by numerous economic headwinds, resulting in particularly volatile revenue in recent years. Revenue is expected to fall at a compound annual rate of 0.8% over the five years through 2024 to €163.6 billion, including a forecast rise of 2.7% in 2024. Economic uncertainty has been rife in recent years, with investors remaining cautious amid muted economic growth, sticky inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes from central banks across Europe. Notably, 2022 was a tough year for capital markets, with the rising base rate environment triggering mass sell-offs in fixed-income markets and clobbering bond values. Stock markets didn’t fare much better, with the MSCI World Index ending the year down by 13.1%. Optimism was hard to come by going into 2023, but capital markets defied expectations, partially due to a solid performance from large cap tech stocks and investors pricing in rate cuts at the tail-end of the year, supporting capital inflows. Although not forecast to record double-digit growth, stock market are positioned to see a modest gain in 2024, with interest rates likely to be cut and inflation coming down. However, there’s the argument that stocks, most notably US stocks, are overvalued, leading to the possibility of a repricing, which would put downwards pressure on prices and weigh on revenue growth. Revenue is slated to swell at compound annual rate of 3.8% over the five years through 2029 to €197.4 billion. Investment activity is set to pick up in the short term as economic growth improves, boosting investor confidence and driving revenue and profit growth. Technological advancements will continue to gather pace in the coming years, with developments like robo-advisers becoming increasingly accurate and supporting investment returns.

Stock Exchanges Market Outlook

The global stock exchanges market size is projected to grow from USD 85 billion in 2023 to USD 130 billion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8%. This steady growth is underpinned by a multitude of factors, including advancements in trading technology, the increasing complexity of financial instruments, and the rising participation of retail and institutional investors in global financial markets. The proliferation of electronic trading platforms, alongside traditional stock exchanges, is also contributing significantly to the growth of this market, providing enhanced accessibility, transparency, and efficiency in trading operations worldwide.

A key growth factor driving the expansion of the stock exchanges market is the ongoing digital transformation across the financial sector. With the advent of sophisticated trading technologies such as algorithmic trading and high-frequency trading, stock exchanges are increasingly adopting cutting-edge IT infrastructures to handle large volumes of trade data with superior accuracy and speed. Furthermore, the development of blockchain technology is poised to revolutionize clearing and settlement processes, reducing costs and the time taken for transaction finalization. This technological evolution is not only enhancing the operational efficiency of stock exchanges but also broadening the scope for innovative financial products, thereby attracting a wider array of market participants.

Another significant driver is the globalization of financial markets, which has led to a convergence in trading practices and regulations. As cross-border investments surge, stock exchanges are compelled to offer diverse products and services to cater to a global clientele. This necessitates continuous improvements in trading platforms and regulatory frameworks to manage the complexities associated with international investments. Additionally, increasing wealth in emerging economies is spurring investment activities, thereby boosting the demand for reliable and efficient stock exchanges. These dynamics are fueling the growth of the market by fostering an environment conducive to investment and financial inclusivity.

The increasing interest from retail investors is also a major factor contributing to the growth of the stock exchanges market. The advent of user-friendly trading apps and platforms has democratized stock trading, enabling retail investors to participate actively in financial markets. Enhanced financial literacy and the widespread availability of information have empowered individual investors to make informed decisions, leading to an upsurge in market participation. This rise in retail trading volume is prompting stock exchanges to innovate and expand their offerings to accommodate this burgeoning segment, thus driving market growth.

Regionally, North America continues to dominate the stock exchanges market, driven by the presence of major exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ. However, the Asia Pacific region is emerging as a formidable player due to rapid economic growth, regulatory reforms, and technological advancements in countries like China, India, and Japan. The region is witnessing a significant influx of foreign capital, bolstering trading activities and propelling market expansion. Europe also holds a substantial share, supported by its mature financial markets and strong institutional investor base. Meanwhile, Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are exhibiting potential for growth, albeit at a relatively slower pace, as they develop their financial infrastructures and regulatory environments.

Type Analysis

The stock exchanges market is bifurcated into traditional stock exchanges and electronic trading platforms, each serving distinct roles in the financial ecosystem. Traditional stock exchanges have long been the cornerstone of financial markets, operating as centralized venues where securities are bought and sold. These exchanges, such as the NYSE and London Stock Exchange, are characterized by their stringent regulatory frameworks and structured trading environments, which instill confidence and trust among market participants. Despite the technological advancements, traditional exchanges continue to hold a significant share of the market due to their established reputations and the comprehensive services they offer, including listing, trading, and settlement.

On the other hand, electronic trading platforms have gained momentum in recent years, driven by the demand for greater efficiency and flexibility in trading. These platf

Togo TG: External Debt: DOD: Stocks: Variable Rate data was reported at 10.036 USD mn in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 11.374 USD mn for 2015. Togo TG: External Debt: DOD: Stocks: Variable Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 53.379 USD mn from Dec 1970 (Median) to 2016, with 47 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 154.796 USD mn in 2007 and a record low of 0.000 USD mn in 2011. Togo TG: External Debt: DOD: Stocks: Variable Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Togo – Table TG.World Bank: External Debt: Debt Outstanding, Debt Ratio and Debt Service. Variable interest rate is long-term external debt with interest rates that float with movements in a key market rate; for example, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) or the U.S. prime rate. This item conveys information about the borrower's exposure to changes in international interest rates. Long-term external debt is defined as debt that has an original or extended maturity of more than one year and that is owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy and repayable in currency, goods, or services. Data are in current U.S. dollars.; ; World Bank, International Debt Statistics.; Sum;

Volatility in financial markets has been high in recent years, which has, at times, benefitted the brokerage industry through greater trading activity as investors look to capitalise on price swings. Most notably, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine conflict and aggressive interest hikes from Central Banks facing rampant inflation have incited severe volatility. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.7% over the five years through 2023-24 to £38.1 billion, including estimated growth of 3.9% in 2023-24. Although volatility can benefit the industry, it can also deter investors, incentivising them to delay investments until economic uncertainty subsides. In recent years, uncertainty has mainly stemmed from the aggressive interest rate hikes and their expected trajectory, hitting stock and bond markets in 2022 and hurting trading activity. Although interest rate uncertainty persisted going into 2023-24, stock markets improved thanks to exceptional growth from large-cap tech stocks and a sharp rally at the end of the year as investors bet on the end of rate hikes. Competition has softened as considerable consolidation activity has occurred between SMEs in the brokerage industry. However, the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II has ramped up operating costs for brokerage firms, hurting profitability. Continued investment in software to help automate compliance procedures have benefitted margins, although the brokerage industry remains labour-intensive. Revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.5% over the five years through 2028-29 to £45.2 billion, while the average industry profit margin is expected to reach 24.8%. The market narrative for interest rates is higher for longer, weighing on stock markets and hitting demand for brokers as trading activity slows. However, rate cuts are expected to occur in the second half of 2024-25, supporting bond values and stocks driving revenue growth in the short term. Further regulations related to Basel III are set to come into force in January 2025, adding pressure to brokers' operating costs. Due to Brexit, large international brokers are also shifting employees to overseas domiciles, adding downward pressure to revenue growth.

Strong returns in various financial markets and increased trading volumes have benefited businesses in the industry. Companies provide underwriting, brokering and market-making services for different financial instruments, including bonds, stocks and derivatives. Businesses benefited from improving macroeconomic conditions despite high inflationary economic environment. However, in 2024, the Fed slashed interest rates as inflationary pressures eased , limiting interest income from fixed-income securities for the industry. The Fed seeks to further cut interest rates but will monitor inflation, employment, the effects of tariffs and other economic factors before making further rate cut decisions. Overall, revenue has been growing at a CAGR of 7.0% over the past five years and is expected to total $456.6 billion in 2025, with revenue expected to decline 0.9% in the same year. In addition, industry profit is expected to climb to 13.0% over the five years to 2025. While many industries struggled at the onset of the period due to economic disruptions due to the pandemic and supply chain issues, businesses benefited from the volatility. Primarily, companies have benefited from increased trading activity on behalf of their clients due to fluctuations in asset prices. This has led to higher trade execution fees for firms at the onset of the period. Similarly, debt underwriting increased as many businesses have turned to investment bankers to help raise cash for various ventures. Also, improved scalability of operations, especially regarding trading services conducted by securities intermediates, has helped increase industry profits. Structural changes have forced the industry's smaller businesses to evolve. Because competing in trading services requires massive investments in technology and compliance, boutique investment banks have alternatively focused on advising in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Boutique investment banks' total share of M&A revenue is forecast to grow through the end of 2030. Furthermore, the industry will benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions as inflationary pressures are expected to ease. This will help asset values rise and interest rate levels to be cut, thus allowing operators to generate more from equity underwriting and lending activities. Overall, revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.2% to $507.9 billion over the five years to 2030.