Mortgage rates increased at a record pace in 2022, with the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubling between March 2022 and December 2022. With inflation increasing, the Bank of England introduced several bank rate hikes, resulting in higher mortgage rates. In May 2025, the average 10-year fixed rate interest rate reached **** percent. As borrowing costs get higher, demand for housing is expected to decrease, leading to declining market sentiment and slower house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold declined in 2023, reaching just above *** million. Despite the number of transactions falling, this figure was higher than the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. The falling transaction volume also impacted mortgage borrowing. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans fell year-on-year for five straight quarters in a row. How are higher mortgages affecting homebuyers? Homeowners with a mortgage loan usually lock in a fixed rate deal for two to ten years, meaning that after this period runs out, they need to renegotiate the terms of the loan. Many of the mortgages outstanding were taken out during the period of record-low mortgage rates and have since faced notable increases in their monthly repayment. About **** million homeowners are projected to see their deal expire by the end of 2026. About *** million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to *** British pounds by 2026.

Due to interest rates decreasing in recent years, mortgages in the United Kingdom have become overall more affordable: In 2007, when mortgages were the least affordable, a home buyer spent on average **** percent of their income on mortgage interest and *** percent on capital repayment. In 2019, the year with the most affordable mortgages, mortgage interest accounted for *** percent and capital repayment was **** percent of their income. As interest rates increase in response to the rising inflation, mortgage affordability is expected to worsen. Though below the levels observed before 2007, the total mortgage repayment between 2022 and 2026 is expected to exceed ** percent of income.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2024, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates in an effort to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

In June 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In the first half of 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.1 percent in June 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.4 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

About 1.4 million households with mortgages up for renewal in the United Kingdom (UK) will face increasing monthly costs by the end of 2024 because of the aggressive mortgage interest hikes since the beginning of 2022. For about one million of these households, the increase will be between one British pound and 300 British pounds, while for 388,000 households, the increase will be higher. By December 2026, the number of households with rising mortgage payments is projected at 3.9 million. Meanwhile, about two million mortgage borrowers are expected to benefit from reduced mortgage payments by the end of 2026.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Aug 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

This dataset provides values for INTEREST RATE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

Mortgage interest rates worldwide varied greatly in June 2025, from less than ******percent in many European countries to as high as ***percent in Turkey. The average mortgage rate in a country depends on the central bank's base lending rate and macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and forecast economic growth. Since 2022, inflationary pressures have led to rapid increases in mortgage interest rates. Which are the leading mortgage markets? An easy way to estimate the importance of the mortgage sector in each country is by comparing household debt depth, or the ratio of the debt held by households compared to the county's GDP. In 2024, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada had some of the highest household debt to GDP ratios worldwide. While this indicator shows the size of the sector relative to the country’s economy, the value of mortgages outstanding allows to compare the market size in different countries. In Europe, for instance, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France were the largest mortgage markets by outstanding mortgage lending. Mortgage lending trends in the U.S. In the United States, new mortgage lending soared in 2021. This was largely due to the growth of new refinance loans that allow homeowners to renegotiate their mortgage terms and replace their existing loan with a more favorable one. Following the rise in interest rates, the mortgage market cooled, and refinance loans declined.

Mortgage brokers’ revenue is anticipated to climb at a compound annual rate of 4.5% over the five years through 2024-25 to £2.3 billion, including estimated growth of . Rising residential property transactions stimulated by government initiatives and rising house prices have driven industry growth. However, mortgage brokers have faced numerous obstacles, including downward pricing pressures from upstream lenders and a sharp downturn in the housing market as rising mortgage rates ramped up the cost of borrowing. After a standstill in residential real estate activity in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak, ultra-low base rates, the release of pent-up demand, the introduction of tax incentives and buyers reassessing their living situation fuelled a V-shaped recovery in the housing market. This meant new mortgage approvals for house purchases boomed going into 2021-22, ramping up demand for brokerage services. 2022-23 was a year rife with economic headwinds, from rising interest rates to fears of a looming recession. Yet, the housing market stood its ground, with brokers continuing to benefit from rising prices. Elevated mortgage rates eventually hit demand for houses in the first half of 2023, contributing to lacklustre house price growth in 2023-24, hurting revenue, despite a modest recovery in the second half of the year as mortgage rates came down. In 2024-25, lower mortgage rates and an improving economic outlook support house prices, driving revenue growth. Mortgage brokers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 5.3% over the five years through 2029-30 to £2.9 billion. Competition from direct lending will ramp up. Yet, growth opportunities remain. The emergence of niche mortgage products, like those targeting retired individuals and contractors, as well as green mortgages, will support revenue growth in the coming years. AI is also set to transform the industry, improving cost efficiencies by automating tasks like document verification, risk assessment and customer profiling.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United Kingdom (IRLTLT01GBQ156N) from Q1 1960 to Q2 2025 about long-term, 10-year, United Kingdom, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The non-depository financing industry's revenue has contracted at a projected compound annual rate of 2.1% over the five years through 2024-25. The COVID-19 outbreak caused a large drop in borrowing in 2020-21 as consumers faced a lack of spending opportunities, outweighing the gains from businesses taking out additional loans to stay afloat. The industry has also faced stronger regulatory oversight to combat the proliferation of overly risky and expensive loans. The cost-of-living crisis has caused consumer lending to swell as households rely on short-term borrowing to make up for weakened savings and costs outpacing wages. Soaring interest rates have caused the cost of mortgages to skyrocket, damaging revenue as buyers pull back and lenders are more cautious. The Non-Depository Financing industry's revenue is estimated to climb by 1.7% in 2024-25 – and is expected to total £6.7 billion. This comes from the much-anticipated sliding down of interest rates that will aid the mortgage market and big returns from newer sectors like OpenAI and sustainable technologies. Industry revenue is expected to swell at a compound annual rate of 2.4% to £7.6 billion over the five years through 2029-30. The need for credit is set to be supported by the previous erosion of savings from spiked inflation, leading to more loans needed for sizeable investments as confidence rebounds. Non-depositary financing companies will continue facing stiff competition from other types of lenders, like peer-to-peer lenders. The regulation constricting payday loans will continue to push services towards a lower margin and higher volume approach, aiding those with lower credit scores but dented industry profit. The high cost of mortgages and economic headwinds will settle and start to rebuild the housing market, supporting revenue.

Companies operating in the third-party real estate industry have had to navigate numerous economic headwinds in recent years, notably rising interest rates, spiralling inflation and muted economic growth. Revenue is projected to sink at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2025, including an estimated jump of 1.2% in 2025 to €207.6 billion, while the average industry profit margin is forecast to reach 35.1%. Amid spiralling inflation, central banks across Europe ratcheted up interest rates, resulting in borrowing costs skyrocketing over the two years through 2023. In residential markets, elevated mortgage rates combined with tightening credit conditions eventually ate into demand, inciting a drop in house prices. Rental markets performed well when house prices were elevated (2021-2023), being the cheaper alternative for cash-strapped buyers. However, even lessors felt the pinch of rising mortgage rates, forcing them to hoist rent prices to cover costs and pricing out potential buyers. This led to a slowdown in rental markets in 2023, weighing on revenue growth. However, this has started to turn around in 2025 as interest rates have been falling across Europe in the two years through 2025, reducing borrowing costs for buyers and boosting property transactions. This has helped revenue to rebound slightly in 2025 as estate agents earn commission from property transactions. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2030 to €249.5 billion. Housing prices are recovering in 2025 as fixed-rate mortgages begin to drop and economic uncertainty subsides, aiding revenue growth in the short term. Over the coming years, PropTech—technology-driven innovations designed to improve and streamline the real estate industry—will force estate agents to adapt, shaking up the traditional real estate sector. A notable application of PropTech is the use of AI and data analytics to predict a home’s future value and speed up the process of retrofitting properties to become more sustainable.

The rapid growth of the Peer-to-Peer Lending (P2P) Platforms industry has slowed in recent years, as the industry is maturing and the initial wave of firms entering the industry has begun to stabilise. Revenue is expected to remain fairly flat, growing at a compound annual rate of just 0.1% over the five years through 2024-25 to £342 million. Economic conditions, interest rates and regulation are all affecting P2P lenders’ performance. Revenue volatility is high because of the industry’s infancy and volatile economic conditions recently. Funding Circle dominates the industry, though it exited the retail market in March 2022. Zopa, previously a leading lender, exited the market in December 2021. Other lending platforms, like Ratesetter, have also left the industry or have stopped offering services to retail investors. The main reasons for this are the rising regulatory burden and heightened uncertainty. Economic uncertainty has deterred borrowing for investment purposes, increasing lenders' risk averseness and limiting revenue growth. Following an improvement in economic conditions in 2021-22, soaring inflation and heightened uncertainty in the two years through 2023-24 drove some investors to withdraw money from P2P platforms, denting revenue. A combination of falling interest rates and improving economic conditions – inflation is finally dropping – is set to drive investment activity in 2024-25, supporting demand for P2P lending and lifting revenue growth. However, with this will come less stringent lending criteria from traditional banks, intensifying competition and constraining growth. Revenue is anticipated to grow at a subdued rate of 6.9% in 2024-25. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 13.8% over the five years through 2029-30 to reach £651.7 million. Growth will slow as the industry matures and market acceptance reaches saturation. At the same time, the regulatory burden is likely to mount, pushing more firms out of the market. Despite this, new lenders will continue to set up shop, because many market niches (like ESG) are yet to be filled. The industry is still likely to operate at a loss, though losses will gradually narrow. Larger lenders will likely consolidate to maintain growth and cement their positions.

Over the five years through 2025-26, UK banks' revenue is expected to climb at a compound annual rate of 4.8% to £136 billion, including an anticipated hike of 3.6% in 2025-26. After the financial crisis in 2007-08, low interest rates limited banks' interest in loans, hitting income. At the same time, a stricter regulatory environment, including increased capital requirements introduced under the Basel III banking reforms and ring-fencing regulations, constricted lending activity. To protect their profitability, banks like Lloyds have shut the doors of many branches and made substantial job cuts. Following the COVID-19 outbreak, the Bank of England adopted aggressive tightening of monetary policy, hiking interest rates to rein in spiralling inflation. The higher base rate environment lifted borrowing costs, driving interest income for banks, which reported skyrocketing profits in 2023-24. Although profit grew markedly, pressure to pass on higher rates to savers and fierce competition weighed on revenue growth at the tail end of the year. However, the prospect of rate cuts in 2024-25 saw many banks lower their savings rates, aiding revenue growth. In 2025-26, although further interest rate cuts are on the horizon, revenue is set to grow, due to lower borrowing costs driving activity in the housing market. Banks have also reduced their exposure to interest rate cuts through structural hedges, which lock in rates when they fluctuate. The FCA’s investigation into motor commissions has been a cause for concern over recent years, with banks like Lloyds and Santander ramping up provisions over 2024-25 in preparation for large payouts, if the Supreme Court deems banks were carrying out illegal activities. Over the five years through 2030-31, industry revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 4% to reach £165.8 billion. Regulatory restrictions, tougher stress tests and stringent lending criteria will also hamper revenue growth. Competition is set to remain fierce – both internally from lenders that deliver their services exclusively via digital channels and externally from alternative finance providers, like peer-to-peer lending platforms. The possibility of legislation like the Edinburgh reforms will drive investment and lending activity in the coming years, if introduced. However, concerns surrounding the repercussions of less stringent capital requirements and the already fragile nature of the UK financial system pose doubt as to whether any significant changes will be made.

UK Commercial Property Reit Ltd stock may see an upward trend due to strong rental demand and low vacancy rates. However, risks include rising interest rates, which could impact property values and reduce demand. There is also a risk that the UK economy could slow down, which could lead to decreased demand for commercial property.

This depository includes the replication package for Interest Rates, Sanitation Infrastructure, and Mortality Decline in Nineteenth-Century England and Wales, to be published in the Journal of Economic History in March 2022. Abstract: This paper investigates whether high borrowing costs deterred investment in sanitation infrastructure in late nineteenth-century Britain. Town councils had to borrow to fund investment, with considerable variation in interest rates across towns and over time. Panel regressions, using annual data from more than 800 town councils, indicate that higher interest rates were associated with lower levels of infrastructure investment between 1887 and 1903. Instrumental variable regressions show that falling interest rates after 1887 stimulated investment and led to lower infant mortality. These findings suggest that Parliament could have expedited mortality decline by subsidizing loans or facilitating private borrowing.

The average mortgage interest rate decreased in nearly every country in Europe between 2012 and 2021, followed by an increase in response to inflation. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Poland, Hungary, and Romania topped the ranking as the countries with the highest mortgage interest rates in Europe. Conversely, Belgium, Spain, and Italy displayed the lowest interest rates. The UK, which is the country with the largest value of mortgages outstanding, had an interest rate of **** percent.

Furniture, Carpet and Lighting Wholesaling revenue is expected to contract at a compound annual rate of 1.3% over the five years through 2025-26, reaching £5.7 billion. The industry has faced significant challenges due to a tough economic environment, marked by high inflation, peaking at 11.1% in October 2022, high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis that has significantly dampened consumers’ discretionary spending, limiting demand for largely non-essential products like furniture. These challenges have been compounded by a slowing housing market, where falling housing transactions and renovations reduced demand for products like flooring. Elevated trade costs due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a volatile pound elevated purchase costs, with wholesalers reliant on sourcing from overseas markets with cheaper production costs. Demand from retailers is picking up, boosting the industry. As inflationary pressures and interest rates ease, consumers are beginning to spend more on discretionary items, boosting industry sales. A resurgent housing market is driving further revenue growth as people increasingly demand furniture, lighting and flooring for their homes. Increased sales, alongside prioritising efficiency gains, have led to profit ticking up to 8.2% in the current year despite lingering purchase and wage cost challenges. Despite the recovery, growth remains dampened due to lingering cost pressures and vulnerable consumer demand, with confidence dwindling as geopolitical tensions ramp up. Overall, industry revenue is projected to climb by 0.2% in 2025-26, indicating a cautious recovery under strained conditions. Industry revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.3% to £6 billion over the five years through 2030-31. Positive GDP growth projections will boost discretionary purchasing, benefitting industry sales. Falling interest rates are likely to encourage UK consumers to move house or undertake home renovations, directly boosting demand for furniture, carpets and lighting. This is further supported by the government's plans to build 1.5 million homes by 2030. However, geopolitical tensions have led to an escalating trade war between the US and China, resulting in tariffs. If Chinese manufacturers raise their prices to offset lost demand from US markets, industry wholesalers may face challenges due to reliance on overseas sourcing. As a result, manufacturers may shift more sourcing to local UK producers, raising purchase costs but capitalising on the growing demand for locally sourced items to expand their reach.