100+ datasets found
  1. a

    ABS Population projections LGA 2022 to 2023

    • digital.atlas.gov.au
    Updated Jun 14, 2024
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    Digital Atlas of Australia (2024). ABS Population projections LGA 2022 to 2023 [Dataset]. https://digital.atlas.gov.au/datasets/5f866394db4a452da103bcaf9acf23fd
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 14, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Digital Atlas of Australia
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Area covered
    Description

    These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

    Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
    These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

    Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

    Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

    Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

    Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

    Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

    Contact the Australian Bureau of Statistics If you have questions or feedback about this web service, please email geography@abs.gov.au. To subscribe to updates about ABS web services and geospatial products, please complete this form. For information about how the ABS manages any personal information you provide view the ABS privacy policy.

    Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)

  2. d

    Population Projections for SA - Dataset - data.sa.gov.au

    • data.sa.gov.au
    Updated Feb 28, 2014
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    (2014). Population Projections for SA - Dataset - data.sa.gov.au [Dataset]. https://data.sa.gov.au/data/dataset/population-projections-for-sa
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    Dataset updated
    Feb 28, 2014
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Area covered
    South Australia, Australia
    Description

    Official population projections for: • South Australia and regions for 2016 to 2041 • Local government areas (LGAs) and Statistical Areas level 2 (SA2s) for 2016 to 2036. Users should familiarise themselves with the assumptions, qualifications and background information provided on the DPTI population projections webpage at http://www.dpti.sa.gov.au/planning/population in order to choose the projection that best suits their needs. Updated every 5 years.

  3. T

    Australia - Population Growth (annual %)

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated May 27, 2017
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2017). Australia - Population Growth (annual %) [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/population-growth-annual-percent-wb-data.html
    Explore at:
    json, csv, excel, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    May 27, 2017
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    Australia
    Description

    Population growth (annual %) in Australia was reported at 2.05 % in 2024, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Australia - Population growth (annual %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on September of 2025.

  4. Total population of Australia 2030

    • statista.com
    Updated Apr 30, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Total population of Australia 2030 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/263740/total-population-of-australia/
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    Dataset updated
    Apr 30, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    Australia
    Description

    The statistic shows the total population of Australia from 1980 to 2023, with projections up until 2030. In 2023, Australia had a total population of about 26.95 million people. Population of Australia Australia is among the ten largest countries in the world, in terms of area size, although its total population is low in relation to this. Much of Australia’s interior remains uninhabited, as the majority of Australians live in coastal metropolises and cities. Most of the population is of European descent (predominantly British), although there is a growing share of the population with Asian heritage; only a small percentage belongs to the indigenous Aboriginal population. Australia's year-on-year population growth is fairly high compared to most other economically and demographically advanced nations, due to comparatively high rates of natural increase and immigration. Living standards Standard of living is fairly high in Australia, which can be seen when looking at the Human Development Index, which ranks countries by their level of human development and living standards, such as their unemployment rate, literacy rate, or life expectancy at birth. Life expectancy of Australia’s population is quite high in international comparison, for example, Australia is also among the leading countries when it comes to this key factor. Economically speaking, Australia is also among the leading nations, with a steadily rising employment rate, an increasing gross domestic product (GDP) with a steady growth rate, and a relatively stable share in the global GDP.

  5. Australia AU: Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth

    • ceicdata.com
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    CEICdata.com, Australia AU: Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/australia/demographic-projection/au-population-projection-mid-year-growth
    Explore at:
    Dataset provided by
    CEIC Data
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jun 1, 2089 - Jun 1, 2100
    Area covered
    Australia
    Variables measured
    Population
    Description

    Australia Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data was reported at 0.300 % in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.300 % for 2099. Australia Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 0.750 % from Jun 1986 (Median) to 2100, with 115 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.230 % in 2008 and a record low of 0.300 % in 2100. Australia Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

  6. a

    ABS SA2 Population projections 2022 to 2032

    • digital.atlas.gov.au
    Updated Jun 14, 2024
    + more versions
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    Digital Atlas of Australia (2024). ABS SA2 Population projections 2022 to 2032 [Dataset]. https://digital.atlas.gov.au/datasets/abs-sa2-population-projections-2022-to-2032
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Jun 14, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Digital Atlas of Australia
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Area covered
    Description

    These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

    Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
    These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

    Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

    Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

    Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

    Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

    Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

    Contact the Australian Bureau of Statistics If you have questions or feedback about this web service, please email geography@abs.gov.au. To subscribe to updates about ABS web services and geospatial products, please complete this form. For information about how the ABS manages any personal information you provide view the ABS privacy policy.

    Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)

  7. T

    Australia - Urban Population Growth (annual %)

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Jul 23, 2013
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2013). Australia - Urban Population Growth (annual %) [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/urban-population-growth-annual-percent-wb-data.html
    Explore at:
    csv, json, xml, excelAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 23, 2013
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    Australia
    Description

    Urban population growth (annual %) in Australia was reported at 2.2035 % in 2024, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Australia - Urban population growth (annual %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on July of 2025.

  8. a

    ABS LGA Population projections 2022 to 2032

    • digital.atlas.gov.au
    Updated Jun 14, 2024
    + more versions
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    Digital Atlas of Australia (2024). ABS LGA Population projections 2022 to 2032 [Dataset]. https://digital.atlas.gov.au/datasets/5f866394db4a452da103bcaf9acf23fd_0/explore?location=-0.022193%2C-47.592505%2C3.98
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Jun 14, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Digital Atlas of Australia
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Area covered
    Description

    These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

    Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
    These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

    Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

    Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

    Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

    Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

    Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

    Contact the Australian Bureau of Statistics If you have questions or feedback about this web service, please email geography@abs.gov.au. To subscribe to updates about ABS web services and geospatial products, please complete this form. For information about how the ABS manages any personal information you provide view the ABS privacy policy.

    Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)

  9. A

    Australia AU: Population: Growth

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated May 15, 2020
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    CEICdata.com (2020). Australia AU: Population: Growth [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/australia/population-and-urbanization-statistics/au-population-growth
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    May 15, 2020
    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Dec 1, 2012 - Dec 1, 2023
    Area covered
    Australia
    Variables measured
    Population
    Description

    Australia Population: Growth data was reported at 2.371 % in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.273 % for 2022. Australia Population: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 1.447 % from Dec 1961 (Median) to 2023, with 63 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.380 % in 1971 and a record low of 0.141 % in 2021. Australia Population: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.;Derived from total population. Population source: (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2022 Revision, (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.;Weighted average;

  10. Forecast: world population, by continent 2100

    • statista.com
    Updated Jul 28, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Forecast: world population, by continent 2100 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/272789/world-population-by-continent/
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    Dataset updated
    Jul 28, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    World
    Description

    Whereas the population is expected to decrease somewhat until 2100 in Asia, Europe, and South America, it is predicted to grow significantly in Africa. While there were 1.55 billion inhabitants on the continent at the beginning of 2025, the number of inhabitants is expected to reach 3.81 billion by 2100. In total, the global population is expected to reach nearly 10.18 billion by 2100. Worldwide population In the United States, the total population is expected to steadily increase over the next couple of years. In 2024, Asia held over half of the global population and is expected to have the highest number of people living in urban areas in 2050. Asia is home to the two most populous countries, India and China, both with a population of over one billion people. However, the small country of Monaco had the highest population density worldwide in 2024. Effects of overpopulation Alongside the growing worldwide population, there are negative effects of overpopulation. The increasing population puts a higher pressure on existing resources and contributes to pollution. As the population grows, the demand for food grows, which requires more water, which in turn takes away from the freshwater available. Concurrently, food needs to be transported through different mechanisms, which contributes to air pollution. Not every resource is renewable, meaning the world is using up limited resources that will eventually run out. Furthermore, more species will become extinct which harms the ecosystem and food chain. Overpopulation was considered to be one of the most important environmental issues worldwide in 2020.

  11. Australia Population Change: Natural Increase: South Australia

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Jun 17, 2024
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    CEICdata.com (2024). Australia Population Change: Natural Increase: South Australia [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/australia/population-change/population-change-natural-increase-south-australia
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 17, 2024
    Dataset provided by
    CEIC Data
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Sep 1, 2021 - Jun 1, 2024
    Area covered
    Australia
    Variables measured
    Population
    Description

    Population Change: Natural Increase: South Australia data was reported at 128.000 Person in Sep 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 958.000 Person for Jun 2024. Population Change: Natural Increase: South Australia data is updated quarterly, averaging 1,756.500 Person from Jun 1981 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 174 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,801.000 Person in Mar 1984 and a record low of 128.000 Person in Sep 2024. Population Change: Natural Increase: South Australia data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.G003: Population Change.

  12. d

    Australian Demographic Statistics (population estimates) - Dataset -...

    • data.sa.gov.au
    Updated Apr 12, 2013
    + more versions
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    (2013). Australian Demographic Statistics (population estimates) - Dataset - data.sa.gov.au [Dataset]. https://data.sa.gov.au/data/dataset/population-estimates
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    Dataset updated
    Apr 12, 2013
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Area covered
    South Australia, Australia
    Description

    Quarterly estimates of total resident population for states, territories and Australia. Includes estimates of the population by sex in five-year age groups; numbers (and some rates) of births, deaths, infant deaths, interstate and overseas movements; quarterly and/or annual time series spreadsheets; projected resident population for states, territories and Australia; and projected number of households for capital cities, states territories and Australia.

  13. T

    Australia Population

    • tradingeconomics.com
    • tr.tradingeconomics.com
    • +13more
    csv, excel, json, xml
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    TRADING ECONOMICS, Australia Population [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/population
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    json, csv, excel, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Dec 31, 1960 - Dec 31, 2024
    Area covered
    Australia
    Description

    The total population in Australia was estimated at 27.4 million people in 2024, according to the latest census figures and projections from Trading Economics. This dataset provides - Australia Population - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

  14. A

    Australia AU: Urban Population Growth

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated May 7, 2020
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    CEICdata.com (2020). Australia AU: Urban Population Growth [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/australia/population-and-urbanization-statistics/au-urban-population-growth
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    Dataset updated
    May 7, 2020
    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Dec 1, 2012 - Dec 1, 2023
    Area covered
    Australia
    Variables measured
    Population
    Description

    Australia Urban Population Growth data was reported at 2.520 % in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.418 % for 2022. Australia Urban Population Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 1.489 % from Dec 1961 (Median) to 2023, with 63 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.572 % in 1971 and a record low of 0.281 % in 2021. Australia Urban Population Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Urban population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices. It is calculated using World Bank population estimates and urban ratios from the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects.;World Bank staff estimates based on the United Nations Population Division's World Urbanization Prospects: 2018 Revision.;Weighted average;

  15. T

    Australia - Population, Total

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Nov 13, 2013
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2013). Australia - Population, Total [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/population-total-wb-data.html
    Explore at:
    csv, xml, json, excelAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Nov 13, 2013
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    Australia
    Description

    Population, total in Australia was reported at 27204809 in 2024, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Australia - Population, total - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on September of 2025.

  16. Quarterly Population Estimates (ERP) by Sex and Age

    • data.gov.au
    • researchdata.edu.au
    • +1more
    html
    Updated Oct 21, 2016
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    Australian Bureau of Statistics (2016). Quarterly Population Estimates (ERP) by Sex and Age [Dataset]. https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/quarterly-population-estimates-erp-by-sex-and-age
    Explore at:
    htmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Oct 21, 2016
    Dataset provided by
    Australian Bureau of Statisticshttp://abs.gov.au/
    License

    Attribution 3.0 (CC BY 3.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    Estimated resident population (ERPs) is the official measure of the Australian population, published quarterly by the ABS. This dataset contains quarterly ERP by age, at state/territory and Australia level.

  17. A

    Australia Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Western Australia

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Jan 15, 2025
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    CEICdata.com (2025). Australia Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Western Australia [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/australia/population-change/population-change-net-overseas-migration-western-australia
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Jan 15, 2025
    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Sep 1, 2021 - Jun 1, 2024
    Area covered
    Australia
    Variables measured
    Population
    Description

    Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Western Australia data was reported at 11,564.000 Person in Sep 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 7,957.000 Person for Jun 2024. Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Western Australia data is updated quarterly, averaging 3,972.000 Person from Jun 1981 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 174 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20,995.000 Person in Mar 2023 and a record low of -2,317.000 Person in Sep 2020. Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Western Australia data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.G003: Population Change.

  18. d

    Population Projections

    • data.gov.au
    • data.nsw.gov.au
    • +2more
    csv, pdf +3
    Updated Jun 24, 2025
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    Transport for NSW (2025). Population Projections [Dataset]. https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/nsw-2-population-projections
    Explore at:
    xlsx, visualisation, zip, csv, pdfAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jun 24, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Transport for NSW
    License

    Attribution 3.0 (CC BY 3.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24), released in January 2025. TZP24 replaces the previously published TZP22. The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions. The TZP24 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:

    Estimated Resident Population

    Structural Private Dwellings (Regional NSW only)

    Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex

    Population in Non-Private Dwellings

    The projections in this release, TZP24, are presented annually from 2021 to 2031 and 5-yearly from 2031 to 2066, and are in TZ21 geography. Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024, and the projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021. Key Data Inputs used in TZP24:

    2024 NSW Population Projections – NSW Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure

    2021 Census data - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence)

    For a summary of the TZP24 projection method please refer to the TZP24 Factsheet. For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP24 Technical Guide. Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone 2021 boundaries for NSW (TZ21) and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub. Visualisations of the population projections are available on the Transport for NSW Website under Data and research/Reference Information. Cautions The TZP24 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions and population and employment projections. The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

    TZP24 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns.

    The TZP24 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at early 2024).

    The projections are not government targets.

    Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results.

    As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only.

    More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub.

    Caution is advised when comparing TZP24 with the previous set of projections (TZP22) due to addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology.

    Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP24 Technical Guide Important note: The Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure (DPHI) published the 2024 NSW Population Projections in November 2024. As per DPHI’s published projections, the following variables are excluded from the published TZP24 Population and Dwellings Projections:

    Structural Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in 43 councils across Greater Sydney, Illawarra-Shoalhaven, Central Coast, Lower Hunter and Greater Newcastle

    Occupied Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in NSW.

    Furthermore, in TZP24, the Structural Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Implied Dwelling projections while the Occupied Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Households projections at SA2 level prepared by DPHI. The above variables are available upon request by contacting model.selection@transport.nsw.gov.au - Attention Place Forecasting.

  19. r

    Regional Population Growth

    • researchdata.edu.au
    Updated Apr 12, 2013
    + more versions
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    ABS (SA Data) (2013). Regional Population Growth [Dataset]. https://researchdata.edu.au/regional-population-growth/1954034
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    Dataset updated
    Apr 12, 2013
    Dataset provided by
    data.sa.gov.au
    Authors
    ABS (SA Data)
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    Contains latest available estimates of the resident populations of areas of Australia as at 30 June in each year . These estimates are provided for Statistical Areas Level 2 - 4 (SA2s - SA4s), Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSAs), and states and territories of Australia according to the current edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS).\r \r Estimates are also provided for Local Government Areas (LGAs), Significant Urban Areas, Remoteness Areas, and Commonwealth and State Electoral Divisions.

  20. A

    Australia Population Change: Change Over Previous Quarter

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Jun 17, 2024
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    CEICdata.com (2024). Australia Population Change: Change Over Previous Quarter [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/australia/population-change/population-change-change-over-previous-quarter
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 17, 2024
    Dataset provided by
    CEICdata.com
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Sep 1, 2021 - Jun 1, 2024
    Area covered
    Australia
    Variables measured
    Population
    Description

    Australia Population Change: Change Over Previous Quarter data was reported at 115,027.000 Person in Sep 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 85,555.000 Person for Jun 2024. Australia Population Change: Change Over Previous Quarter data is updated quarterly, averaging 65,272.000 Person from Sep 1981 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 173 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 194,017.000 Person in Mar 2023 and a record low of -15,907.000 Person in Sep 2020. Australia Population Change: Change Over Previous Quarter data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.G003: Population Change.

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Digital Atlas of Australia (2024). ABS Population projections LGA 2022 to 2023 [Dataset]. https://digital.atlas.gov.au/datasets/5f866394db4a452da103bcaf9acf23fd

ABS Population projections LGA 2022 to 2023

Explore at:
Dataset updated
Jun 14, 2024
Dataset authored and provided by
Digital Atlas of Australia
License

Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically

Area covered
Description

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

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Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)

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