Official population projections for:\r •\tSouth Australia and regions for 2016 to 2041\r •\tLocal government areas (LGAs) and Statistical Areas level 2 (SA2s) for 2016 to 2036.\r Users should familiarise themselves with the assumptions, qualifications and background information provided on the DPTI population projections webpage at http://www.dpti.sa.gov.au/planning/population in order to choose the projection that best suits their needs.\r Updated every 5 years.\r

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

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Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)

The statistic shows the total population of Australia from 1980 to 2021, with projections up until 2029. In 2021, Australia had a total population of about 25.77 million people. Population of Australia Australia is among the ten largest countries in the world, in terms of area size, although its total population is low in relation to this. Much of Australia’s interior remains uninhabited, as the majority of Australians live in coastal metropolises and cities. Most of the population is of European descent (predominantly British), although there is a growing share of the population with Asian heritage; only a small percentage belongs to the indigenous Aboriginal population. Australia's year-on-year population growth is fairly high compared to most other economically and demographically advanced nations, due to comparatively high rates of natural increase and immigration. Living standards Standard of living is fairly high in Australia, which can be seen when looking at the Human Development Index, which ranks countries by their level of human development and living standards, such as their unemployment rate, literacy rate, or life expectancy at birth. Life expectancy of Australia’s population is quite high in international comparison, for example, Australia is also among the leading countries when it comes to this key factor.

Economically speaking, Australia is also among the leading nations, with a steadily rising employment rate, an increasing gross domestic product (GDP) with a steady growth rate, and a relatively stable share in the global GDP.

Contains projections (based on different assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration) of the resident population of Australia, the states and territories, capital cities and balance of states, by age and sex for the base year to 2101 (for Australia) and for the base year to 2061 (for the states and territories, capital cities and balances of states). Also includes summary measures such as percentages of population in selected age groups and median ages as well as detailed notes on the assumptions used.

Population projections illustrate how Australia's population will change in the future as a result of certain assumptions. This dataset presents 72 scenarios, comprising combinations of different rates of fertility (x3), mortality (x2), net overseas migration (x4) and net interstate migration (x3).

Since the mid-1970s, Australia's population growth rate has remained fairly constant, fluctuating between one and two percent annual change in most years. Australia's crude birth rate has consistently been higher than its death rate during this time, which means that the population grows naturally and is not dependent on migration - however, Australia has historically been one of the most popular destinations for migrants, who are also responsible for a large share of this change.

This dataset, released February 2020, contains the total Population projections for years 2020, 2025 and 2030, by 5-year age groups: 0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, 65+, 70+, 75+, 85+ years.

The data is by Population Health Area (PHA) 2016 geographic boundaries based on the 2016 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS).

Population Health Areas, developed by PHIDU, are comprised of a combination of whole SA2s and multiple (aggregates of) SA2s, where the SA2 is an area in the ABS structure.

For more information please see the data source notes on the data.

Source: These data are based on customised projections prepared for the Australian Government Department of Health by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and originally published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. PHA data were compiled by PHIDU based on these customised projections for 2020, 2025, and 2030..

AURIN has spatially enabled the original data. Data that was not shown/not applicable/not published/not available for the specific area ('#', '..', '^', 'np, 'n.a.', 'n.y.a.' in original PHIDU data) was removed.It has been replaced by by Blank cells. For other keys and abbreviations refer to PHIDU Keys.

This dataset presents the preliminary estimates of the resident population by age and sex as at 30 June 2019. The data is aggregated to Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2), according to the 2016 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS).

Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population, which links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a given reference year. For the 30 June reference date, this refers to the calendar year around it. Estimates of the resident population are based on Census counts by place of usual residence (excluding short-term overseas visitors in Australia), with an allowance for Census net undercount, to which are added the estimated number of Australian residents temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. A person is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be) residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16-month period.

This data is ABS data (catalogue number: 3235.0) available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

For more information please visit the Explanatory Notes.

• AURIN has spatially enabled the data.

• Regions which contain unpublished data have been left blank in the dataset.

This Excel workbook contains projections of population totals of SA3 areas (2016 ASGS) in Australia from 2020 to 2035. The projections are created as the average of four extrapolative models:
(i) a constant share of population model in which local area populations are projected as the jump-off year proportion of the national population multiplied by the national projected population; (ii) a linear/exponential model which projects local area population using linear extrapolation if base period growth is positive and exponential extrapolation if it is negative; (iii) a share of growth model in which projected local population growth from the linear/exponential model is adjusted to match projected national population change; and (iv) a modified exponential model in which the exponential model is subject to floor and ceiling limits to avoid excessive growth or decline.

Population projections illustrate how Australia's population will change in the future as a result of certain assumptions. This dataset presents 72 scenarios, comprising combinations of different …Show full descriptionPopulation projections illustrate how Australia's population will change in the future as a result of certain assumptions. This dataset presents 72 scenarios, comprising combinations of different rates of fertility (x3), mortality (x2), net overseas migration (x4) and net interstate migration (x3).

Quarterly estimates of total resident population for states, territories and Australia. Includes estimates of the population by sex in five-year age groups; numbers (and some rates) of births, …Show full descriptionQuarterly estimates of total resident population for states, territories and Australia. Includes estimates of the population by sex in five-year age groups; numbers (and some rates) of births, deaths, infant deaths, interstate and overseas movements; quarterly and/or annual time series spreadsheets; projected resident population for states, territories and Australia; and projected number of households for capital cities, states territories and Australia.

This information has been provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For further information see www.abs.gov.au. Projected population growth of Australian capital cities (medium growth scenario), 2012-2061. From: Population projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101, cat.no. 3222.0.

Data ued to produce Figure BLT2 in Built environment, SoE 2016. See https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/built-environment/topic/2016/increased-urban-footprint#built-environment-figure-BLT2

This dataset, released February 2020, contains the female Population projections for years 2020, 2025 and 2030, by 5-year age groups: 0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, 65+, 70+, 75+, 85+ years. The data is by Local Government Area (LGA) 2016 geographic boundaries. For more information please see the data source notes on the data. Source: These data are based on customised projections prepared for the Australian Government Department of Health by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and originally published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. PHA data were compiled by PHIDU based on these customised projections for 2020, 2025, and 2030.. AURIN has spatially enabled the original data. Data that was not shown/not applicable/not published/not available for the specific area ('#', '..', '^', 'np, 'n.a.', 'n.y.a.' in original PHIDU data) was removed.It has been replaced by by Blank cells. For other keys and abbreviations refer to PHIDU Keys.

This dataset, released February 2020, contains the female Population projections for years 2020, 2025 and 2030, by 5-year age groups: 0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, 65+, 70+, 75+, 85+ years. The data is by Primary Health Network (PHN) 2017 geographic boundaries based on the 2016 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). There are 31 PHNs set up by the Australian Government. Each network is controlled by a board of medical professionals and advised by a clinical council and community advisory committee. The boundaries of the PHNs closely align with the Local Hospital Networks where possible. For more information please see the data source notes on the data. Source: These data are based on customised projections prepared for the Australian Government Department of Health by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and originally published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. PHA data were compiled by PHIDU based on these customised projections for 2020, 2025, and 2030.. AURIN has spatially enabled the original data. Data that was not shown/not applicable/not published/not available for the specific area ('#', '..', '^', 'np, 'n.a.', 'n.y.a.' in original PHIDU data) was removed.It has been replaced by by Blank cells. For other keys and abbreviations refer to PHIDU Keys.

This dataset contains population projections by sex and age group for SA3 areas of Australia (excluding a few areas with very small populations) for a 15 year projection horizon. The data are presented in both Excel and csv formats.

Whereas the population is expected to decrease somewhat until 2100 in Asia, Europe, and South America, it is predicted to grow significantly in Africa. While there were 1.5 billion inhabitants on the continent at the beginning of 2024, the number of inhabitants is expected to reach 3.8 billion by 2100. In total, the global population is expected to reach nearly 10.4 billion by 2100. Worldwide population In the United States, the total population is expected to steadily increase over the next couple of years. In 2024, Asia held over half of the global population and is expected to have the highest number of people living in urban areas in 2050. Asia is home to the two most populous countries, India and China, both with a population of over one billion people. However, the small country of Monaco had the highest population density worldwide in 2021. Effects of overpopulation Alongside the growing worldwide population, there are negative effects of overpopulation. The increasing population puts a higher pressure on existing resources and contributes to pollution. As the population grows, the demand for food grows, which requires more water, which in turn takes away from the freshwater available. Concurrently, food needs to be transported through different mechanisms, which contributes to air pollution. Not every resource is renewable, meaning the world is using up limited resources that will eventually run out. Furthermore, more species will become extinct which harms the ecosystem and food chain. Overpopulation was considered to be one of the most important environmental issues worldwide in 2020.

Australia Population: Growth data was reported at 2.371 % in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.273 % for 2022. Australia Population: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 1.447 % from Dec 1961 (Median) to 2023, with 63 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.380 % in 1971 and a record low of 0.141 % in 2021. Australia Population: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.;Derived from total population. Population source: (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2022 Revision, (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.;Weighted average;

Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24), released in January 2025.\r \r TZP24 replaces the previously published TZP22.\r \r The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions .\r \r The TZP24 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:\r \r * Estimated Resident Population\r \r * Structural Private Dwellings (Regional NSW only)\r \r * Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex\r \r * Population in Non-Private Dwellings\r \r The projections in this release, TZP24, are presented annually from 2021 to 2031 and 5-yearly from 2031 to 2066, and are in TZ21 geography.\r \r Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024, and the projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.\r \r Key Data Inputs used in TZP24:\r \r * 2024 NSW Population Projections – NSW Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure\r \r * 2021 Census data - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence)\r \r For a summary of the TZP24 projection method please refer to the TZP24 Factsheet .\r \r For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP24 Technical Guide . \r \r Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone 2021 boundaries for NSW (TZ21) and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.\r \r Visualisations of the population projections are available on the Transport for NSW Website under Data and research/Reference Information .\r \r Cautions\r \r The TZP24 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions and population and employment projections.\r \r The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.\r \r *\tTZP24 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns.\r \r *\tThe TZP24 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at early 2024).\r \r *\tThe projections are not government targets.\r \r *\tTravel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results.\r \r *\tAs a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only.\r \r *\tMore specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub.\r \r *\tCaution is advised when comparing TZP24 with the previous set of projections (TZP22) due to addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology.\r \r Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP24 Technical Guide\r \r Important note: \r \r The Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure (DPHI) published the 2024 NSW Population Projections in November 2024. As per DPHI’s published projections, the following variables are excluded from the published TZP24 Population and Dwellings Projections:\r \r *\tStructural Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in 43 councils across Greater Sydney, Illawarra-Shoalhaven, Central Coast, Lower Hunter and Greater Newcastle\r \r *\tOccupied Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in NSW.\r \r Furthermore, in TZP24, the Structural Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Implied Dwelling projections while the Occupied Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Households projections at SA2 level prepared by DPHI.\r \r The above variables are available upon request by contacting model.selection@transport.nsw.gov.au - Attention Place Forecasting.

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander resident population in Australia was forecasted to increase to close to 1.1 million by 2031, based on 2016 population estimates. The forecasted Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander resident population for 2023 was approximately 919 thousand people.

This dataset, released February 2020, contains the total Population projections for years 2020, 2025 and 2030, by 5-year age groups: 0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, 65+, 70+, 75+, 85+ years.

The data is by Local Government Area (LGA) 2016 geographic boundaries.

For more information please see the data source notes on the data.

Source: These data are based on customised projections prepared for the Australian Government Department of Health by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and originally published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. PHA data were compiled by PHIDU based on these customised projections for 2020, 2025, and 2030..

AURIN has spatially enabled the original data. Data that was not shown/not applicable/not published/not available for the specific area ('#', '..', '^', 'np, 'n.a.', 'n.y.a.' in original PHIDU data) was removed.It has been replaced by by Blank cells. For other keys and abbreviations refer to PHIDU Keys.