The rate of liver cancer diagnoses in the United States increases with age. As of 2022, those aged 80 to 84 years had the highest rates of liver cancer. Risk factors for liver cancer include smoking, drinking alcohol, being overweight or obese, and having diabetes. Who is most likely to get liver cancer? Liver cancer in the United States is much more common among men than women. In 2022, there were 12 new liver cancer diagnoses among men per 100,000 population, compared to just five new diagnoses per 100,000 women. Concerning race and ethnicity, non-Hispanic American Indians and Alaska Natives and Hispanics have the highest rates of new liver cancer diagnoses. The five-year survival rate for liver cancer in the United States is around 22 percent; however, this rate is much higher among non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islanders than other races and ethnicities. Non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islanders have a 33 percent chance of surviving the next five years after a liver cancer diagnosis. Deaths from liver cancer In 2023, there were an estimated 29,911 deaths in the United States due to liver cancer. However, the death rate for liver cancer has remained stable over the past few years. In 2023, the death rate for liver cancer was 6.6 deaths per 100,000 population. It is estimated that in 2025, there will be over 19,000 liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer deaths among men in the United States and 10,800 such deaths among women.

In 2021, there were over *** thousand registrations of newly diagnosed liver cancer in England. With a total of *** cases in this year, the age group most affected by liver cancer in terms of number of cases was that of 70 to 74 year old men. It should of course be noted that the number of people in England in each age group varies and is therefore not necessarily a reflection of susceptibility to liver cancer.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate the updated disease burden, risk factors, and temporal trends of liver cancer based on age, sex, and country. Methods: We estimated the incidence of liver cancer and its attribution to hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 2018 based on the Global Cancer Observatory and World Health Organization (WHO) Cancer Causes database. We extracted the prevalence of risk factors from the WHO Global Health Observatory to examine the associations by weighted linear regression. The trend analysis used data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and the WHO mortality database from 48 countries. Temporal patterns of incidence and mortality were calculated using average annual percent change (AAPC) by joinpoint regression analysis. Results: The global incidence of liver cancer was (age-standardized rate [ASR]) 9.3 per 100,000 population in 2018, and there was an evident disparity in the incidence related to HBV (ASR 0.2–41.2) and HCV (ASR 0.4–43.5). A higher HCV/HBV-related incidence ratio was associated with a higher level of alcohol consumption (β 0.49), overweight (β 0.51), obesity (β 0.64), elevated cholesterol (β 0.70), gross domestic product (β 0.20), and Human Development Index (HDI; β 0.45). An increasing trend in incidence was identified in many countries, especially for male individuals, population aged ≥50 years, and countries with a higher HCV/HBV-related liver cancer incidence ratio. Countries with the most drastic increase in male incidence were reported in India (AAPC 7.70), Ireland (AAPC 5.60), Sweden (AAPC 5.72), the UK (AAPC 5.59), and Norway (AAPC 4.87). Conclusion: We observed an overall increasing trend of liver cancer, especially among male subjects, older individuals, and countries with a higher prevalence of HCV-related liver cancer. More efforts are needed in enhancing lifestyle modifications and accessibility of antiviral treatment for these populations. Future studies should investigate the reasons behind these epidemiological changes.

Background: Liver cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The primary causes of liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), alcohol consumption, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and other factors. Aims: The objective of this study was to evaluate the global and sex-, age-, region-, country-, and etiology-related liver cancer burden, as well as the trends in liver cancer caused by different etiologies. Methods: The causes of liver cancer from 1990 to 2017, including global, regional, and national liver cancer incidence, mortality, and etiology, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017, and the time-dependent change in the trends of liver cancer burden was evaluated by annual percentage change. Results: The global liver cancer incidence and mortality have been increasing. There were 950,000 newly-diagnosed liver cancer cases and over 800,000 deaths in 2017, which is more than twice the numbers recorded in 1990. HBV and HCV are the major causes of liver cancer. HBV is the major risk factor of liver cancer in Asia, while HCV and alcohol abuse are the major risk factors in the high sociodemographic index and high human development index regions. The mean onset age and incidence of liver cancer with different etiologies have gradually increased in the past 30 years. Conclusions: The global incidence is still rising and the causes have national, regional, or population specificities. More targeted prevention strategies must be developed for the different etiologic types in order to reduce liver cancer burden.

Primary liver cancer is a significant global health issue, characterized by high incidence and mortality rates worldwide. Accurate diagnosis and classification of subtypes are essential for selecting appropriate treatment options and enhancing patient outcomes. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) has proven highly sensitive and specific in diagnosing liver cancer. Currently, publicly available datasets of liver cancer CECT scans are limited and often do not comprehensively cover liver cancer subtypes or include complete phasing of CT scans. We hypothesize that utilizing full-phase 3D CECT images, including the Plain, Arterial, Venous, and Delayed phases, can improve the diagnostic classification performance for liver cancer. To test this hypothesis, we have collected a large dataset from a single medical institution that includes 278 cases of liver cancer, featuring Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC), Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), and Combined Hepatocellular-Cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-CCA), as well as CECT images from 83 non-liver cancer subjects. For each patient, we annotated the liver and lesion regions. This dataset, rich in liver cancer types and complete in CT phasing, facilitates the development and validation of diagnostic classification models and lesion segmentation models tailored to liver cancer CT imaging.The median age of participants was 59 years 51, 67, with 185 males (67.3% of the liver cancer group) . Each patient had complete 3D contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) data across the Plain, Arterial, Venous, and Delayed phases, stored as NIFTI files. A total of 50,560 slices containing lesions were collected, with a median lesion volume of 75.37 cm³ [26.70, 239.24] . The Python code for loading and processing the data can be found on GitHub (https://github.com/ljwa2323/PLC_CECT).

IntroductionIn this study, we examined the natural course of untreated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and identified predictors of survival in an area where hepatitis B is the predominant cause of HCC.MethodsWe identified 1,045 patients with HCC who did not receive HCC treatment and were registered in the Korean Primary Liver Cancer Registry between 2008 and 2014, and were followed-up up to December 2018. Thereafter, we analyzed the clinical characteristics of patients who survived for <12 or ≥12 months. A Cox proportional regression model was used to identify the variables associated with patient survival.Results and discussionThe mean age of the untreated patients at HCC diagnosis was 59.6 years, and 52.1% of patients had hepatitis B. Most untreated patients (94.2%) died during the observation period. The median survival times for each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were as follows: 31.0 months for stage 0/A (n = 123), 10.0 months for stage B (n = 96), 3.0 months for stage C (n = 599), and 1.0 month for stage D (n = 227). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that BCLC stage D (hazard ratio, 4.282; P < 0.001), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥10 (HR, 1.484; P < 0.001), and serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level ≥1,000 ng/mL (HR, 1.506; P < 0.001) were associated with poor survival outcomes in patients with untreated HCC. In untreated patients with HCC, advanced stage BCLC, serum AFP level ≥1,000 ng/mL, and MELD score ≥10 were significantly associated with overall survival.

Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence rates in patients with steatotic liver disease, overall and in subgroups by age, sex, cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus, or other non-hepatic events.

Cumulative hepatocellular carcinoma incidence (%) in subgroups by age, sex, cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus, or other non-hepatic events.

Background: Despite the emergence of atezolizumab and bevacizumab (A+B) as standard first-line systemic therapy for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a comprehensive understanding of the clinical significance of immune-related adverse events (irAEs) remains limited. We aimed to assess the impact of irAEs on patients with HCC undergoing A+B treatment. Methods: This multicentre retrospective study included consecutive patients with HCC who were treated with the A+B regimen from September 2020 to December 2022. Patients were categorised into three groups based on the severity of irAEs, ranging from those without any experience of irAEs to those with severe irAEs, classified as grade 3 or higher. Results: This study included 150 patients with HCC, with a mean age of 63.3 years. Among them, 93.3% of patients were classified as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage C, 52.0% had portal vein tumour thrombosis (PVTT), and 60.7% extrahepatic spread. Patients were classified as follows: Group 1 (n = 84) had no irAEs, Group 2 (n = 37) had mild irAEs (grade 1–2), and Group 3 (n = 29) had severe irAEs (grade ≥ 3). The median overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and time-to-treatment discontinuation (TTD) were 13.6, 5.7, and 3.6 months, respectively. Group 2 demonstrated significantly superior OS compared to Group 1 (9.5 months) and Group 3 (5.6 months), with a median OS of 23.0 months (p < 0.001). Furthermore, Group 2 demonstrated significantly better outcomes in terms of PFS and TTD compared to both Group 1 and Group 3 (p < 0.001 for both). Multivariate analysis identified mild irAEs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.353; p = 0.010), ALBI grade 1 (HR, 0.389; p = 0.006), Child-Pugh class A (HR, 0.338; p = 0.002), and the absence of PVTT (HR, 0.556; p = 0.043) as independent predictors of better OS. Conclusions: Our study highlights the significant impact of irAE severity on the outcomes of patients with HCC receiving A+B. Notably, the occurrence of mild irAEs was independently associated with favourable survival, suggesting their potential role as surrogate indicators of HCC prognosis.

BackgroundThe clinical characteristics of primary liver cancer (PLC) patients are changing, maybe due to hepatitis viral vaccination and lifestyle changes, etc. The linkage between these changes and outcomes among these PLCs has not yet been fully elucidated.MethodsIt was identified total of 1691 PLC cases diagnosed between 2000 ~ 2020. Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to determine the connections between the clinical presentations and their close risk factor(s) from PLC patients.ResultsThe average age of PLC patients increased gradually from 52.74 ± 0.5 years in 2000 ~ 2004 to 58.63 ± 0.44 years in 2017 ~ 2020, accompanied by an increased proportion of females from 11.11% to 22.46%, and non-viral hepatitis-related PLC was raised from 1.5% to 22.35%. 840 (49.67%) PLC patients with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) < 20ng/mL (AFP-negative). The mortality was 285 (16.85%) or 532 (31.46%) PLC patients with alanine transaminase (ALT) between 40 ~ 60 IU/L or ALT > 60 IU/L. The PLC patients with pre-diabetes/diabetes or dyslipidemia also increased from 4.29% or 11.1% in 2000 ~ 2004 to 22.34% or 46.83% in 2017 ~ 2020. The survival period of the PLC patients with normoglycemia or normolipidemic was 2.18 or 3.14 folds longer than those patients with pre-diabetes/diabetes or hyperlipidemia (P

Legacy unique identifier: P00326

Purpose To retrospectively compare the perfusion parameters of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) measured with dynamic contrast material-enhanced (DCE) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging with surrounding liver parenchyma to determine the relationship between these parameters and uncensored overall survival (OS). Materials and Methods This retrospective study had institutional review board approval, and informed consent was waived. DCE MR imaging was performed in 92 patients with advanced HCC before systemic treatment was administered (19 patients received a placebo). Three semiquantitative (peak, slope, and area under the gadolinium concentration-time curve [AUC]) and six quantitative (arterial fraction, arterial flow, portal flow, total blood flow, distribution volume, and mean transit time) parameters were calculated by placing regions of interest in the largest area of the tumor and background liver parenchyma. The DCE MR imaging parameters between the tumor and normal liver were compared with paired Wilcoxon test. By using the Cox proportional hazards model for univariate and multivariate analyses, the association of DCE MR imaging parameters and OS was investigated. Results HCC demonstrated significantly higher peak, slope, AUC, arterial fraction, and arterial flow but lower portal flow, distribution volume, and mean transit time than did the background liver (all P ＜ .05). Patients with high peak in the tumor had longer OS (P = .005) than did those with low peak. Cox multivariate analysis identified peak as an independent predictor of OS (P = .032) after adjusting for age, sex, treatment, tumor size, and portal vein thrombosis. Conclusion DCE MR imaging parameters can be used to differentiate advanced HCC from the background liver, and peak, a semiquantitative parameter, is associated with outcome in patients with advanced HCC before systemic therapy. ? RSNA, 2016 An earlier incorrect version of this article appeared online

I

NTRODUCTION AND AIM:

The American Association for the Study of the Liver (AASLD) recommends contrast computerized tomography (CT-scan) and magnetic resonance (MRI) to diagnose hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) arising in cirrhotic patients under semiannual surveillance with abdominal ultrasound (US). A US guided fine needle biopsy (FNB) serves the same purpose in radiologically undiagnosed tumors and incidentally detected nodules in cirrhotics outside surveillance. In this population, we evaluated the performance of radiological diagnosis of HCC according to 2010 AASLD recommendations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS:

All cirrhotic patients with a liver nodule incidentally detected by US were prospectively investigated with a sequential application of CT-scan/MRI examination and a FNB.

RESULTS:

Between 2011 and 2015, 94 patients (mean age 67 years) had a liver nodule (total 120) detected by US in the context of histologically confirmed cirrhosis. Mean nodules diameter was 40 (10-160) mm, 87 (73%) <5cm. At histology, 84 (70%) nodules were HCC, 8 (7%) intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, 6 (5%) metastases, 2 (2%) neuroendocrine tumors and 20 (16%) benign lesions. Hyperenhancement in arterial phase followed by wash-out in venous phases on at least one radiological technique was demonstrated in 62 nodules (61 HCC, 1 high grade dysplastic nodule), with a specificity of 97% (IC95%: 85-100%), sensitivity 73% (IC95%: 62-81%) and diagnostic accuracy 80%, being 64% for ≥5cm HCC. Sensitivity of AFP >200ng/mL was 12% (IC95%: 6-23%).

CONCLUSION:

A single contrast imaging technique showing a typical contrast pattern confidently identifies HCC also in cirrhotic patients with an incidental liver nodule, thereby reducing the need for FNB examinations.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is related to metabolic dysregulation and the perturbation of endoplasmic reticulum (ER) homeostasis that frequently develops into hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Gp78 is E3 ligase, which regulates endoplasmic reticulum-associated degradation (ERAD) by ubiquitinylation of misfolded ER proteins. Here, we report that upon ageing (12 months), gp78-/- mice developed obesity, recapitulating age-related human NASH. Liver histology of gp78-/- mice revealed typical steatosis, hepatic inflammation and fibrosis, followed by progression to hepatocellular tumors. Acute ER stress revealed that loss of gp78 results in up regulation of unfolded protein response (UPR) pathways and SREBP-1 regulating de novo lipogenesis, responsible for fatty liver. Tissue array of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) demonstrated that the expression of gp78 was inversely correlated with clinical grades of cancer. Here, we have described the generation of the first preclinical experimental model system which spontaneously develops age-related NASH and HCC, linking ERAD to hepatosteatosis, cirrhosis, and cancer. It suggests that gp78 is a regulator of normal liver homeostasis and a tumor suppressor in human liver.

BackgroundThe present work focused on assessing the role of computed tomography (CT)-determined sarcopenia in the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer liver metastases (GCLM) receiving hepatectomy.MethodsWe analyzed data collected from GCLM cases that underwent hepatectomy between March 2011 and July 2017. The third lumbar vertebra (L3) level skeletal muscle index (SMI) was analyzed by abdominal CT to determine the sarcopenia before surgery. The thresholds for CT-based sarcopenia of sex-specific L3 SMI were ≤ 34.9 cm2/m2 and ≤ 40.8 cm2/m2 for female and male, separately We determined overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS)by univariate and multivariate analyses.ResultsThe cohort enrolled altogether 114 patients with GCLM receiving hepatectomy (average age: 62.6 years, male: 79.8%), and 58 (50.8%) patients had sarcopenia. The mean SMI was 34.2 in patients with sarcopenia compared to 42.7 in patients without sarcopenia (p < 0.001). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates in patients with GCLM after hepatectomy were 78.1, 43.7, and 34.3%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS rates in patients were 49.8, 33.6, and 29.3%, respectively. Sarcopenia was related to an advanced age (≥65.0 years) (p = 0.009), reduced BMI (<18.5 kg/m2) (p < 0.001) and number of liver metastases (>1) (p = 0.025). Sarcopenia had a significant associated with the patterns of recurrence (p < 0.001). In addition, patients with sarcopenia had a significant difference in number of liver metastases in comparison with those without sarcopenia (p = 0.025). We discovered from multivariate analysis that sarcopenia independently predicted RFS [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.76; 95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.18–2.35, p = 0.007]. Nevertheless, sarcopenia was not the prognostic factors that independently predicted OS (HR = 1.62; 95% CI = 0.57–2.73; p = 0.330).ConclusionsIn conclusion, we showed that CT-determined sarcopenia was the facile and effective prognostic factor for RFS inpatients with GCLM after hepatectomy. Patients with sarcopenia are associated with an increased tumor recurrence risk, and thereby customized treatment should be applied.

This record contains raw data related to article “Charlson comorbidity index and G8 in older old adult(≥80 years) hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy"

Introduction: Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is characterized, in Western countries, by higher incidence and mortality rates in the older adult population. In frail patients, limited therapeutic resources are available due to limited expected benefit concerning the risk of treatment-related toxicity. The aim of our study is to evaluate the role of Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) in the clinical management of older old adults (age ≥ 80 years) HCC patients and to identify predictors of efficacy and toxicity.

Material and methods: Clinical and treatment-related data of older old adults HCC patients treated with SBRT at our institution were retrospectively reviewed. Statistical analysis was carried out to identify variables correlated with impaired outcome and toxicity.

Results: Forty-two patients were included, accounting for 63 treated tumors. Median age was 85 (range 80-91) years. Median Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and G8 scores were 10 (range 7-16) and 11 (range 8-14), respectively. SBRT was administered to a median BED10 of 103 Gy10. Median follow-up interval was 11 (range 3-40) months. Two years Local Control (LC), Progression-Free Survival (PFS), and Overall Survival (OS) were 93%, 31%, and 43%, respectively. Acute toxicity occurred in 28% (n = 13) of treatments. A G8 score > 10 was associated with improved survival (p = 0.045), while a CCI ≥10 was correlated with increased acute toxicity (p = 0.021).

Conclusions: SBRT is a safe and effective option in older old adults HCC patients. A comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is advised before treatment decisions to select optimal candidates for SBRT.

This publicly available CT dataset was downloaded from 50 portal venous phase abdominal CT scans (3mm-slice thickness) performed in 50 patients with liver metastases— from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA).These CT scans were acquired with routine radiation dose levels per standard clinical protocols on SOMATOM Definition Flash CT scanner (Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany).Each study had been postprocessed to include a second reconstructed CT dataset at a simulated 25% radiation dose level. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) radiation dose for the full dose and the reduced dose CT datasets were 14.7 mSv (8 mSv) and 3.7 mSv (2 mSv), respectively. After a curation process by radiologists, 9 of 50 cases were excluded [chronic calcific pancreatitis (n = 1), postsurgical changes in pancreas (n = 2) and pancreatic lesions (n = 6)]. Volumetric pancreas segmentations were done on all the remaining 41 cases [16 males and 25 females, mean (SD) patient age: 60.8 years (14.7 yrs)] independently by the two radiologists (R1 and R2). Segmentations were first done on the full dose CT dataset and then repeated on the reduced dose CT dataset by both R1 and R2 after a gap of at least 24 hours to allow for memory extinction.

BackgroundMedical care of cancer patients at the end-of-life is costly. This study aims to describe the monthly trends of EOL medical care, drug therapy, and chemotherapy costs per patient with cancer in the last year of life in the inpatients vs. outpatient setting for the 13 most prevalent cancers in Korea.MethodsUsing the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) database, we identified the patients who had been treated for the primary diagnoses of one of the 13 most prevalent cancers in Korea and died between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015. We calculated the mean monthly costs of medical care, drug therapy, and chemotherapy per patient in the last year of life by cancer site and patient setting (inpatient vs. outpatient).ResultsFor most cancers, the monthly inpatient costs per patient remain stable or increased gradually from 12 months to 3 months prior to death and then increased steeply from 2 months prior to death. The mean monthly inpatient costs per patient were highest for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) throughout the last year of life; all solid tumors had similar trends of monthly inpatient costs. The mean monthly inpatient costs for AML increased from $5,465 (SD, $5,248) in 12 months prior to death to $15,033 (SD, $11,864) in the last month. The monthly outpatient costs per patient showed similar, gradually decreasing trends for most cancers. The mean outpatient costs were highest for kidney cancer; the costs sharply decreased from $954 (SD, $1,346) in 12 months prior to death to $424 (SD, $736) in the last month. The proportion of inpatients receiving chemotherapy in the last month of life was highest for AML (77%), followed by liver cancer (67%) and breast cancer (56%).ConclusionThe monthly inpatient medical care costs per patient with cancer increased as the patient approached death, while the monthly outpatient costs decreased. A considerable proportion of inpatient received chemotherapy in the last month of life. Efforts are needed to optimize EOL care for cancer patients.

ObjectiveObesity-related health burdens have emerged as particularly intractable public health issues on a global scale. This study aims to analyze the association between body mass index (BMI) and 12 types of cancer, examine the regional, gender, and age disparities in cancer burden attributable to high BMI, and project the disease burden trends over the next decade based on available data.MethodsData for this study were sourced from the Integrative Epidemiology Unit (IEU) Open Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) Project and the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Using Mendelian randomization (MR), we investigated the association between BMI and 12 cancer types. We also collected and analyzed epidemiological data on cancers attributable to high BMI, calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) across 21 regions, and examined disparities in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by age, sex, and cancer type. Finally, we used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict trends in various cancers attributable to high BMI over the next 10 years.ResultsIn 2021, high BMI accounted for 356,738 cancer deaths worldwide and 8,894,525 DALYs, representing an increase of 160% in deaths and 151% in DALYs compared to 1990 (which recorded 137,353 deaths and 3,549,049 DALYs). Among the cancers attributable to high BMI, colon and rectal cancer accounted for the highest disease burden, while thyroid cancer accounted for the lowest proportion of disease burden. Gender-stratified analysis revealed a notably higher disease burden among women compared to men. An age-specific assessment revealed a disproportionately higher disease burden in the 50–79 age cohort. Additionally, both the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability rate (ASDR) showed positive correlations with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Finally, projections from the ARIMA model indicate that over the next decade, the ASMR for most cancers attributable to high-BMI will remain stable or increase, except for colon, rectal, and uterine cancers. The MR analysis indicated a causal relationship between BMI and 11 cancer types (colon and rectal cancer, liver cancer, gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, pancreatic cancer, breast cancer, uterine cancer, ovarian cancer, kidney cancer, lymphoma, multiple myeloma, and leukemia), while no causal association was found between BMI and thyroid cancer.ConclusionMendelian randomization analysis indicated a notable association between elevated BMI and an increased risk of 11 cancer types. Over the past three decades, the cancer burden attributable to high BMI has demonstrated a marked increasing trend, with notable variations observed across geographic regions, gender groups, and age categories regarding predominant cancer types. These findings underscore the need to develop targeted prevention strategies and health promotion interventions that are tailored to specific demographic and regional profiles.

IntroductionHigh body mass index (BMI) has been identified as a significant contributor to cancers. However, details regarding the evolution of the cancer burden attributable to high BMI in China have not been available. With the epidemic of high BMI among Chinese recent years, it's essential to evaluate the disease burden of cancer associated with high BMI to guide disease interventions and enhance public health. This study aimed to evaluate the burden of high BMI-attributed cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and compare it with global trends.MethodsThe temporal trends of high BMI-attributed cancer were assessed using annual percentage change (APC) and overall percentage change. Decomposition and age-period-cohort analyses were conducted to identify influential factors, while future trends were projected with the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC), auto-regressive moving average model (ARIMA), and exponential smoothing model (ETS).ResultsIn China, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years rate (ASDR) for high BMI-attributed cancer increased to 2.81 (95% UI: 1.20–4.76)/105 and 79.17 (95% UI: 33.82–134.14)/105 in 2021, remaining below the global average. While the APC of ASMR and ASDR constantly increased in China, global trends exhibited minimal change. Colorectal and liver cancers were the most prevalent types of high BMI-attributed cancer. In China, the period and cohort effects on high BMI-attributed cancer increased more significantly, with the age effect showing an exponential rise. Aging accounted for 43.92% of high BMI-attributed cancer related deaths and 40.03% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in China. Over the next 15 years, the burden of high BMI-attributed cancer in China would show a more significant upward trend compared with global trends.ConclusionsAlthough China's current high BMI-attributed cancer burden remains below the global average, it is increasing at a substantial rate and is expected to continue increasing rapidly. Targeted prevention strategies tailored to age and the latest high BMI-attributed cancer spectrum are urgently needed to mitigate this growing public health concern in China.